AgMIP-Eastern AfricaOverview

Eastern Africa Team

Background

• Eastern Africa is one of the regions in Africa where production is lagging behind population growth

• High dependence on rainfed agriculture and high variability in rainfall are the main reasons for the variability in food production in the region

• Climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation

Data source: FAO

Cereal yields in Eastern Africa

• Except for Ethiopia, Madagascar and Rwanda, cereal yields remained the same or declined during the past decade

Data source: FAO

Maize yields in Kenya

Dry areas – Eastern Africa

• More than a third of the region is semi-arid or dry sub-humid which are marginal environments for crop production

• This area is expected to grow with the projected changes in climate by about 1.71 m km2 by 2050

• Major changes are expected in Tanzania, DR Congo and Madagascar

2000

2050

High uncertainty

Prediction

Expected change in Rainfall (%)

2046-2065 2081-2100

Katumani Kitui Mwin

giMutomo

Katumani Kitui Mwin

giMutomo

Min 23.9 -10.7 -4.4 -4.5 30.9 -11.5 -4.8 9.3

Med 41.0 17.0 -0.1 9.1 70.9 24.2 15.5 13.6

Max 57.6 58.2 22.8 58.2 96.9 58.8 33.9 58.1

A2 SRES , summary of 11 GCM outputs

AgMIP-Eastern Africa

• Assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural systems in Eastern Africa while enhancing the region’s capacity to undertake integrated assessment of vulnerabilities to future changes in climate

• Participating countries:o Kenyao Tanzaniao Ugandao Ethiopia

Project Partners

1. International Crops Research Institute for Semi Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)2. Makerere University (MAK)3. National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO)4. Uganda Department of Meteorology (UDM)5. Kenya Agricultural Research Institute(KARI)6. Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)7. University of Nairobi (UoN)8. Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)9. Tanzania Meteorlogical Agency (TMA)10. Institute of Rural Development and Planning (IRDP)11. Mekelle University (MkU)12. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR)13. National Meteorological Agency (NMA)14. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)15. Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research nIn Eastern and

Central Africa (ASARECA)

Project- Aims

• Conduct a systematic, comprehensive, and quantitative assessment of impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural systems and their implications on income and food security

• Assess the impacts at scales ranging from farm, local, agro-ecological and regional

• Identify adaptation options with due consideration to the interactions between the key variables of climate, crop and socio-economics

• Establish multi-disciplinary teams and enhance their capacity with skills and capabilities in validating and using climate, crop and economic models

Outputs

• Databases and well tested tools and methodologies to assess biophysical and socio-economic implications of the effects of climate variability and change

• A core team of climate, crop and economic modellers, with improved skills in the use of advanced models and sophisticated frameworks for integrated assessment of climate change impacts

• New knowledge and information about impacts of climate variability and change on key agricultural systems and their biophysical and socio-economic implications at multiple scales

• Increased sharing of relevant and timely knowledge and information about the impacts of climate variability on agricultural production and food security

Methodology• Four country teams work independently and a team

environment• Uses agro-ecologies as base unit with additional subdivisions

– Humid, sub-humid and semi-arid• Focus on crops that are relevant to smallholder farmers• Assemble data required for climate-crop-economic models• Calibration, validation and testing of models• Develop economic scenarios

– Scenario 1: Climate change but no adaptation– Scenario 2: Climate change with adaptation– Scenario 3: Baseline scenario

• Conduct simulations and assess impacts under current and future climatic conditions

• Extrapolate the results to target agro-ecology

Target crops and locations

Crop Uganda Kenya Tanzania Ethiopia

MaizeMt Elgon (H)Hoima (SH)Mbarara (SA)

Kitale (H)Nakuru (SH)Machakos (SA)

Uyole (H)Morogoro (SH)Arusha (SA)

Ambo (H)Bako (SH)Adgudon plains (SA)

BeansMt Elgon (H)Hoima (SH)Mbarara (SA)

Kitale (H)Nakuru (SH)Machakos (SA)

Uyole (H)Morogoro (SH)Arusha(SA)

C. Rift valley-Nazret&Awasa (SA)

Sugar cane

Jinja-Kakira (SH) S. Nyanza (H)Nyando (SH)

Sorghum Busia (H)

Kitui (SA)Hombolo and Dodoma (SA)

Wheat

Hagere Selam (H)Eteya Gonde (SH)Adgudon (SA)

H=Humid, SH=Sub-humid, SA=Semi-arid

Distribution of sites

Models to be usedArea Model/tool PurposeClimate modeling

Instat Variability and trend analysisMarkSim-GCM Future climate scenarios developmentTamet Quality checks on climate dataTav_amp Calculating (TAV) and (AMP) required for crop

modelsWeather translator Convert DSSAT climate files into APSIM format

Crop models

DSSAT Assessing climate impacts on crops and evaluating adaptation optionsAPSIM

AquacropR Script Data analysis and graphical representation

Economic modeling

ToA-MD Impact assessment of technologiesDREAM Economic impacts of agriculture IMPACT Examine alternative futures for global food

supplyIT Web tools Develop web pages, blogs

Database Archiving and retrieving dataGIS Presenting results

Analytical Framework

• Year 1: Collecting necessary data, calibrating and validating identified models for a range of conditions, conducting uncertainty analyses to address issues of model uncertainties and demonstrate a range of expected outcomes

• Year 2: Large scale assessment of biophysical and economic impacts of climate change for a number of climate change scenarios using predictions based on different GCMs

Key aspects of the project

• More holistic assessment of climate change impacts by integrating best of climate-crop-economic aspects of agricultural systems

• Building on available data and information• Better understanding of model uncertainties and enhancing

their skill• A platform to interact and work closely with global experts

and share experiences nationally, regionally and globally• Developing a strong regional working group with skills in

climate, crop and economic modelling

Progress to date

• Inception workshop was held in August

• Country teams proposed initially were strengthened

• Methodology and work plans were developed

• A blog was created for continuous interaction between team members

• Sub-grants agreement are finalized

• A training cum workshop planned for October/November 2012 with support from CCAFS

Some constraints

• Availability and access to climatic data• Differences in available skills e.g., no active aqua crop

user in some countries• Availability of good quality crop and economic data as

required by the crop and economic models• Financial, technical and time limitations

Thanks for your attention