Aging in an Aging SocietyAging in an Aging SocietyDiversity, Challenges, and Potential Diversity, Challenges, and Potential

for Civic Engagementfor Civic Engagement

Victor W. Marshall, PhDVictor W. Marshall, PhD

UNC Institute on AgingUNC Institute on AgingVictor_marshall@unc.eduVictor_marshall@unc.edu

Lifelong Access Libraries Institute UNC at Chapel Hill

July 31, 2006

OutlineOutline

The Aging of AmericaThe Aging of America Diversity of the Older PopulationDiversity of the Older Population Family and HouseholdFamily and Household Factors Associated with Civic Factors Associated with Civic

EngagementEngagement

THE AGING OF AMERICA THE AGING OF AMERICA Three Factors Affect the Age Structure Three Factors Affect the Age Structure

of any Populationof any Population

Birth Rates (which have fallen)Birth Rates (which have fallen) Life Expectancy (which has Life Expectancy (which has

increased)increased) Immigration and Migration Immigration and Migration

RatesRates

U.S. Population U.S. Population PyramidsPyramids

Source of charts: US Census Bureau

1990 2025 2050

Age

Percent Male (blue) and Female (green)

Declining FertilityDeclining Fertility

US completed fertility higher than most US completed fertility higher than most industrialized countries (about 1.9)industrialized countries (about 1.9)

But has declined (from 3.1 in 1975)But has declined (from 3.1 in 1975) Hispanic women’s birth rate 66% higher Hispanic women’s birth rate 66% higher

than non-hispanic white women than non-hispanic white women (96.9/1000 aged 15-44 versus 58.5)(96.9/1000 aged 15-44 versus 58.5)

Source: US Census BureauSource: US Census Bureau

12 more years

18 more years

4 more years

6 more years

1900, Life expectancy at birth – 47 years

2000, life expectancy at birth – 77 years

3 million

35 million

70 million

4.2 million

21 million

Increases in the Oldest OldIncreases in the Oldest OldU.S. Population Aged 85+ (millions)U.S. Population Aged 85+ (millions)

Source of data: U.S. Census Bureau, “We the American Elderly,” September 1993.

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.42.2

34.3

5.76.5

8.4

13.2

17.7

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

42%

7%

14%

25%28%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1940 1960 1980 2000 2050

Per

cen

t

Percentage of Americans Age 65 Expected to Percentage of Americans Age 65 Expected to Survive Age 90Survive Age 90

Source of data: US Census Bureau

Four-fold increase

Living to 100Living to 100Number of Centenarians in the U.S.Number of Centenarians in the U.S.

Source of data: US Census Bureau, Current Populations Reports, P23-199RV, July 1999

72,000131,000

214,000

324,000

447,000

834,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10% of all elderly

24% of all elderly

Population ChangesPopulation Changes

According to Census Bureau projections, the elderly According to Census Bureau projections, the elderly population will more than double between now and population will more than double between now and the year 2050, to 80 million.the year 2050, to 80 million.

Much of this growth is attributed to the "baby boom" Much of this growth is attributed to the "baby boom" generation which will enter their elderly years generation which will enter their elderly years between 2010 and 2030.between 2010 and 2030.

The most populous States are also the ones with the The most populous States are also the ones with the largest number of elderly. However, the States with largest number of elderly. However, the States with the greatest proportion of elderly are generally the greatest proportion of elderly are generally different from those with the greatest number.different from those with the greatest number.

Source of data: US Census Bureau

Percent of Total State Percent of Total State Population 65 Years and Over: Population 65 Years and Over:

1995 to 20251995 to 2025

Moving to the Sun BeltMoving to the Sun BeltNet Migration, Age 65+, 1985-1990Net Migration, Age 65+, 1985-1990

Source of data: Longino, Charles F. Retirement Migration in America. Houston: Vacation Publishers, 1995.

Negative Net MigrationPositive Net Migration

Percent Change by Region for the Population 65 Years and Over: 1990 - 2000

20.0%

16.0%

7.0%

5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1West South Midwest Northeast

Breaking Down Age 65+Breaking Down Age 65+

Gender, Race, Class, and Health Gender, Race, Class, and Health DifferentiationDifferentiation

Elderly women outnumber elderly men.Elderly women outnumber elderly men.

The elderly are becoming more racially The elderly are becoming more racially and ethnically diverse.and ethnically diverse.

Poverty rates rise with advancing age.Poverty rates rise with advancing age.

Great variability by health statusGreat variability by health status

Women Live LongerWomen Live LongerU.S. Population by Gender and Age U.S. Population by Gender and Age

(2000)(2000)

All Ages Age 65+

Female51.1%

Male48.9%

Female58.4%

Male41.6%

Age 85+

Female69.9%

Male30.1%

Source of data: US Census Bureau, Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, 2000

Older Women More Likely to Older Women More Likely to Live AloneLive Alone

Living Arrangements of Older Adults in U.S. Living Arrangements of Older Adults in U.S. (1998)(1998)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

65-74 years

75-84 years

85+ years

65-74 years

75-84 years

85+ years

Alone With spouse Other

Source of data: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, P20-514, March 1998

WOMEN

MEN

Differences in Life Differences in Life ExpectanciesExpectanciesAt Age 65 (1998)At Age 65 (1998)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

19961979-81

1969-71

1959-61

1949-51

1939-41

1929-31

1919-21

1909-11

1900-1902

Years

allwhite femalenonwhite femalewhite malenonwhite male

Source of data: National Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 13, December 24, 1998

Projected ChangesProjected ChangesRacial Background of U.S. Elderly Racial Background of U.S. Elderly

(2050)(2050)

*Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Source of data: U.S. Census Bureau, “We the American Elderly,” September 1993.

0 20 40 60 80

All races

White

Black

American Indian

Asian

Hispanic*

Numbers in millions

80+

65-79

65+

Income, 65+ HouseholdsIncome, 65+ Households

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

$75,000+

$50,000-74,999

35,000-49,999

$25,000-34,999

$15,000-24,999

$10,000-14,999

Under $10,000

Source: Civic Ventures Fact Sheet on Older Americans

At Risk from PovertyAt Risk from PovertyPercent of 65+ in Poverty in the U.S. Percent of 65+ in Poverty in the U.S.

(1998)(1998)

Source of data: US Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 1998 (P60-207)

5.90%

20.60% 21.00%

11.10%

30.20%

25.30%

whitemales

blackmales

hispanicmales

whitefemales

blackfemales

hispanicfemales

All 65+ persons10.5%

Change in Median Net Worth of Change in Median Net Worth of 65+ Households: 1984 - 200165+ Households: 1984 - 2001

19841984

Average – $98,900Average – $98,900

Whites – $113,400Whites – $113,400

Blacks – $25,600Blacks – $25,600

20012001

Average – Average – $179,800$179,800

Whites – $205,000Whites – $205,000

Blacks – $41,000Blacks – $41,000Source: Panel Study of Income Dynamics

Older Adults More Likely to Older Adults More Likely to Have DisabilitiesHave Disabilities

33.4%

52.5%

8.7%

18.7%

1.1%

9.1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% with any disability % with severe disability

65+15-640-14

Source of data: Current Population Reports, “Americans with Disabilities, 1994-95,” P70-61, August 1997.

Proportion of Older Population Living in Nursing Homes:1990 and 2000

5.1%

4.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

1

1990 2000http://www.census.gov

Factors Related to Active Aging Factors Related to Active Aging

and Civic Engagementand Civic Engagement EDUCATION: Volunteering, but also EDUCATION: Volunteering, but also

work in paid employment higher with work in paid employment higher with increased educationincreased education

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: Is LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: Is increasing at older ages and policy increasing at older ages and policy thrusts will increase it morethrusts will increase it more

CAREGIVING: Will place increasing CAREGIVING: Will place increasing strain on baby boomers and younger strain on baby boomers and younger old peopleold people

Flexibility is a KeyFlexibility is a Key

Baby boomers and older workers Baby boomers and older workers want flexibility in working patterns– want flexibility in working patterns– for example, phased retirement, for example, phased retirement, flexible hours, telecommuting. This flexible hours, telecommuting. This should apply to volunteering and should apply to volunteering and civic engagement activitiescivic engagement activities

Educational Attainment of Educational Attainment of Population 65+ by Race and Population 65+ by Race and

Hispanic Origin: 2003Hispanic Origin: 2003High SchoolHigh School

Total – 72%Total – 72%

White alone – 76%White alone – 76%

Asian alone – 70%Asian alone – 70%

Black alone – 52%Black alone – 52%

Hispanic of any race – 36%Hispanic of any race – 36%

Bachelor’s DegreeBachelor’s Degree

Total – 17%Total – 17%

White alone – 19%White alone – 19%

Asian alone – 29%Asian alone – 29%

Black alone – 10%Black alone – 10%

Hispanic of any race –6%Hispanic of any race –6%

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement

1950 – 17% 1950 – 3%

““Reimagining America: AARP’s Blueprint for the Future”. 2005Reimagining America: AARP’s Blueprint for the Future”. 2005

By 2045, older workers add $3 trillion/yr (9%) to GDP

Value and Cost of Value and Cost of Informal CaregivingInformal Caregiving

12.8 million Americans need care 12.8 million Americans need care 7.3 million are 65 and older 7.3 million are 65 and older

The value of informal caregiving is estimated at The value of informal caregiving is estimated at $196 billion per year $196 billion per year

Informal caregiving exceeds nursing home and Informal caregiving exceeds nursing home and home care expenses by $81 billion home care expenses by $81 billion

Caregiving costs U.S. businesses $11.4 billion Caregiving costs U.S. businesses $11.4 billion annually annually

Caregivers lose up to $659,139 over a lifetimeCaregivers lose up to $659,139 over a lifetimeGeriatric Social Work Initiative, San Jose State University, College of Social Work

Older Adults as VolunteersOlder Adults as Volunteers

  

Source: Independent Sector, America’s Senior Volunteers, June 2000

Age 55-64Age 55-64 Age 65-74Age 65-74 Age 75+Age 75+

Percentage Percentage who who volunteervolunteer

50.3%50.3% 46.6%46.6% 43.0%43.0%

Tot. # Tot. # volunteersvolunteers

11.9 million 11.9 million   

8.5 million  8.5 million   7.1 million 7.1 million 

Avg weekly Avg weekly hours per hours per volunteer   volunteer  

3.3 hours  3.3 hours   3.6 hours  3.6 hours   3.1 hours 3.1 hours 

Total time Total time volunteered volunteered annually   annually  

4.8 billion 4.8 billion hrs  hrs  

1.6 billion 1.6 billion hrshrs

1.1 billion 1.1 billion hrshrs

What the Demographic Data Tell What the Demographic Data Tell UsUs

The population is aging and the The population is aging and the older adult population is the older adult population is the fastest growing sector fastest growing sector

Older adults becoming more Older adults becoming more racially and ethnically diverse.racially and ethnically diverse.

What the Demographic Data Tell What the Demographic Data Tell UsUs

Additional sources of diversity such Additional sources of diversity such as education, health, and family as education, health, and family status suggest a highly variable status suggest a highly variable constituency for libraries and for civic constituency for libraries and for civic engagement initiativesengagement initiatives

The majority of older adults report The majority of older adults report good health and many are able to good health and many are able to work and contribute to family and work and contribute to family and societysociety

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

Danielle Borasky, Associate Director Danielle Borasky, Associate Director for Library and Information Services, for Library and Information Services, UNC Institute on Aging, and the UNC Institute on Aging, and the “Digital Carousel” on the IOA website“Digital Carousel” on the IOA website

Mary Altpeter, Associate Director for Mary Altpeter, Associate Director for Program Development, UNC Institute Program Development, UNC Institute on Agingon Aging