Agile Project Forecasting Techniques

"Who Says You Can't Plan

Agile Projects?"

Matt Davis, PMP, MCITP October 21, 2013

Learning Objectives

1. Review the Agile Project Management approach and it's relation to other business management processes

2. Examine key critical success factors for implementing Agile project forecasting

3. Learn the key elements of an Agile project schedule with Microsoft Project to support Agile project forecasting

Agile Project Forecasting Techniques

Matt Davis Matthew T. Davis, PMP, MCITP VP of Consulting Services - PM Providers

President – MPUG Boston Chapter

Presentation Outline

1. General Agile Project Management concepts and how they relate to other business processes

2. How competing business needs can be met using Agile forecasting techniques

3. Meeting Management Needs

4. Agile Scheduling Techniques

5. Team & Status Communications

Agile PM Concepts Agile / Scrum / XP / Lean Subway Map http://guide.agilealliance.org

Key ‘Agile’ Concepts

Iterative Development Process with Short Cycles (2-4 Weeks)

A Series of ‘Sprints’

Scope included in a Sprint is fluid

Features / Scope effort scored using ‘Story Points’

Story Cards used for Describing Capabilities

Includes a ‘Groomed Backlog’

Tools include ‘Velocity’ and ‘Burndown Charts’

Encourages Change & Responsiveness

Simplified Agile Management Cycle & Sprints

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints

Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints

Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints

Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints

Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints

Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints

Execute Sprints / Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

•Story D

•Story F

•Story J

•Story L

Sprint 1 - January

•Story A

•Story Q

•Story Z

Sprint 2 - February

•TBD

•TBD

•TBD

Sprint 3 – March

Story A – 1st Ranking

Story L – 2nd Ranking

Story J – 3rd Ranking

Story Q – 4th Ranking

Story B – 5th Ranking

Standard Business Processes & Attributes

Annual Budgeting Cycle

Business Goals / Vision Planning

Project Proposals and Business Cases

Strategic Project Selection

IT Project Governance

Project Portfolio Planning

Management By Objectives

Key Attributes

Linear – With Deadlines

Progressively Elaborated but over long cycles

Change Handled as Exceptions

Standard Processes & Agile Process Comparison

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Document Stories

Size Stories

Plan Sprints Deliver Stories

Groom Backlog

Annual Budgeting

•Project Estimates

Budget Reviews

•Revised Project Portfolio

Final Budgets

•Revised Project Portfolio

Governance Gates

•Waterfall Checkpoints

•Requirements

•Design

•Build / Test

•Deployment

Cost / Scope Checkpoints

•Value Realization

Linear Top Level Process

Agile Delivery Process

Integration Points?

Standard Process Value Chains

Value Delivery Chain

Ongoing LOE Incremental Value Ongoing LOE

Projects

FTE-Level Funded Incrementally Funded Flat Funded

Resources

Staffing Projects Systems / Processes

Budgets

Departments Business Initiatives Operations

Mapping Standard Linear Processes to Iterative Agile Processes

Waterfall Lifecycle Phases

Governance Checkpoints / Gates

Budgeting / Funding Cycles

Incremental Scope

Incremental Resources

Sprint Schedule

‘Follow The Money’ Agile Value Delivery Model

Business Initiatives

Agile Project A

System X LOE System Y LOE

Agile Project B

System Z LOE

Incremental

Funding

Incremental

- Scope

- Schedule

- Resources

Flat Funding – Operational / Departmental / FTE Staffing

Fu

nd

ing

Dem

an

d

Value Demand

Value Delivery

Meeting Management Needs What? When? How Much?

What = Story Cards

When = Based on Incremental Resource Capacity & Estimated Velocity Increase

How Much = Total Scope of All Required Story Cards!

Incremental Funding Requirements can be determined using existing Agile PM capabilities

Cost of Resources

Story Points (Effort Estimates)

Sprint Schedule

Agile Forecasting Techniques

Building a sprint schedule

Cost estimating

Resource needs analysis

Working with the backlog

Working with story cards and points

Historical Velocity

Understanding and Using a Burndown Chart

Creating a Velocity Report

Mapping Agile Concepts to Microsoft Project

Agile Concept In Microsoft Project Notes

Sprints Summary Tasks Fixed Dates / Duration

Stories in a Sprint Child Tasks Drag & Drop Management

‘Story Points’ (effort) Custom Field Alias Existing Field Modified Fibonocci Range

Story Cards Notes Page Images, Text, Bullets

Groomed Backlog TaskID is ranking order Drag & Drop Management

Velocity Custom Field & Formula Completed Stories Only

Planned Velocity Custom Field & Formula For sizing a Sprint

Burndown Chart Out of the Box Report NEW in Project 2013!

Velocity Report Custom Report NEW in Project 2013!

Formulas & Story Cards

Velocity

IIf([% Complete]<>100,0,[Duration]/480)

Points Indicator

IIf([Duration]/480=1,"No Story Points",IIf([Duration]/480<=8,"Low",IIf([Duration]/480>=18,"High","Mid")))

The New Project

Q&A

Matthew T. Davis

Matt Davis

LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/ matttdavispmp

Live Coaching

http://www.liveperson.com/ expert/mattdpmp/

Thank You!

Agile Project Forecasting Techniques

"Who Says You Can't Plan

Agile Projects?"

Matt Davis, PMP, MCITP October 21, 2013