aggregate effects of expanded biofuel production: myth & reality c. robert taylor auburn ronald...
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AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF EXPANDED BIOFUEL PRODUCTION:Myth & Reality
C. Robert Taylor AuburnRonald D. Lacewell Texas A&M AgriLife
Ethanol from Corn will not impact food prices
TRUE: if quality cropland is limitless and/or very limited ethanol production
Neither of these conditions are true: land is limited and goals for ethanol quantity are huge• increased demand for corn pushes production on to marginal lands and
costs increase. Price of corn and other commodities increase• increases cost of corn and cost for livestock feed and will be reflected in
cost of food
Dedicated Bioenergy crops as cellulosic ethanol will not affect conventional food crops
Growing second generation biofuels on marginal soils avoids the fuel versus food issue
The myth: assuming these crops will only be grown on marginal soils – if profitable on poor soils then much more so on prime cropland – displacing food crops Second myth: even if grown on marginal soils, production will use inputs and irrigation competing with conventional crops driving up prices for feedstock and food
Crop residues used for fuel will not affect food prices
Removing crop residue takes plant nutrients and organic matter Added cost in nutrients Potential yield reduction Soil deterioration Higher input prices Higher food prices
FALLACY OF COMPOSITION
True at individual unit does not necessarily extrapolate to the aggregate Paradox of thrift/saving Yield increase for individual versus nationallyExtrapolating per acre crop budget data does not reflect whole farm Per acre cost for cellulosic feedstock suggests $60/ton Whole farm analysis with weather days, risk, machinery, etc., suggests $130/ton
CONCLUSIONS AND FINAL THOUGHTS
TOO OFTEN POLICY DECISIONS ARE BASED ON MICRO REASONING WITH UNDESIRABLE OUTCOMES
OFTEN ALL COSTS ARE NOT ACCOUNTED, FOR EXAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF HIGH TONNAGE DEDICATED FEEDSTOCK Extra nutrition for plant growth Irrigation requirements Externalities on water bodies Impact on transportation system (road deterioration) Net energy gain (significant energy to produce, harvest, haul, store and convert)
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Texas AgriLife
BIOMASS LOGISTICS
This and other biofuel reports available at:
https://sites.auburn.edu/academic/ag/group/bioenergy/_layouts/viewlsts.aspx?BaseType=1
COMMENTS - QUESTIONS
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