agenda · third quarter presentation 2019. november 6, 2019 . agenda. highlights financials...
TRANSCRIPT
Third quarter presentation 2019
November 6, 2019
AgendaHighlights
Financials
Operational review/Strategy
Prospects and Market update
Highlights
“Third quarter was impacted by the usual seasonal slowdown in volumes while ratesremained stable. Since then, the market has normalized and we are encouraged to see theimprovement in volumes, and the improved crude and product tanker markets, whichshould positively impact our markets going forward. We are further encouraged byongoing improvement in contract rates and that customers are accepting pass-through ofpotentially higher bunker costs related to IMO 2020. We expect to report improved resultsin the fourth quarter"
Kristian Mørch, CEO Odfjell SE
3
1. Proportional consolidation method
Key figures, USD mill(USD mill, unaudited) 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 3Q18 FY18 FY17
Odfjell Tankers 221.3 218.3 223.1 214.2 208.8 850.8 842.5Odfjell Terminals 17.2 17.6 17.9 16.4 22.6 91.0 110.8Revenues* 241.1 238.3 243.2 232.7 233.7 950.5 961.7Odfjell Tankers 27.0 39.7 49.9 44.7 26.8 108.7 125.0Odfjell Terminals 4.8 6.7 6.2 6.0 3.9 24.0 38.4EBITDA* 32.7 47.2 56.8 51.4 31.5 135.3 165.8EBIT (13.0) 7.0 14.4 25.9 (13.5 (76.4) 132.8Net profit (47.6) (15.4) (10.1) (1.1) (31.2 (210.8) 90.6EPS** (0.60) (0.20) (0.13) (0.01) (0.40 (2.68) 1.15ROE*** (17.6)% (10.5 %) (6.1 %) (7.6 %) (13.8 %) (29.8%) 11.8%ROCE*** (1.1)% 1.4 % 2.8 % 2.7 % (1.5%) (8.1%) 8.8%1) Historical figures are not adjusted for IFRS16*Includes figures from Odfjell Gas** Based on 78.7 million outstanding shares*** Ratios are annualised
Highlights
The chemical tanker earnings were seasonally weaker this quarter. Volumes were lower, but freight rates remained stable and with a firmer underlying trend
EBITDA of USD 51 mill, compared with USD 57 mill in 2Q19
EBITDA of USD 45 mill from Odfjell Tankers compared with USD 50 mill 2Q19
EBITDA of USD 6 mill from Odfjell Terminals compared to USD 6 mill 2Q19
Net result of USD -1 mill compared to USD -10 mill last quarter. Adjusted for sales gain, net results were USD -15mill in 3Q19
Spot rates on main tradelanes increased by 2% compared to 2Q19, and our COA rate renewals are up 6.1% YTD 2019
Repaid our Sep-19 bond without any new issue. Secured new attractive financing which reduces our break-even levels
Concluded the sale of our Jiangyin terminal generating USD 21 mill in cash proceeds and an equity gain of USD 14 mill
Took delivery of Bow Orion, the world’s largest and most energy efficient stainless steel chemical tanker
AgendaHighlights
Financials
Operational review/Strategy
Prospects and Market update
Key quarterly deviations:
Timecharter earnings reduced due to lower volumes carriedduring the quarter
Costs were stable leading to volume impact directly filteringdown to reduced EBITDA for the quarter
G&A reduced in Odfjell Terminals following new corporatestructure with shutdown of offices in Rotterdam and Singapore. Odfjell Terminals now controlled with a leaner organisation from headquarter in Bergen
Taxes in Odfjell Terminals increased related to sale of JiangyinTerminal
Adjusted for non-recurring items, adjusted EPS for Odfjell was USD -0.17 compared to adjusted EPS of USD -0.10 in the previousquarter
USD mill Tankers Terminals Total*2Q19 3Q19 2Q19 3Q19 2Q19 3Q19
Gross revenue 223.1 214.2 17.9 16.4 243.2 232.7Voyage expenses (88.4) (88.2) — — (89.3) (89.1)Pool distribution (16.0) (13.0) — — (16.0) (13.0)Timecharter Earnings 118.7 113.0 17.9 16.4 137.9 130.6TC expenses (10.7) (10.5) — — (10.7) (10.7)
Operating expenses (37.1) (36.3) (6.9) (6.8) (44.5) (43.7)Operating expenses – IFRS 16 adjusted (5.6) (5.6) — — (5.6) (5.6)G&A (15.4) (15.8) (4.8) (3.5) (20.2) (19.4)EBITDA 49.9 44.7 6.2 6.0 56.8 51.4Depreciation (22.8) (23.3) (5.3) (5.2) (28.1) (28.6)Depreciation – IFRS 16 adjusted (12.8) (12.8) (0.1) (0.1) (12.9) (12.9)Impairment — — (1.6) 0.1 (1.6) 0.1Capital gain/loss 0.2 — 0.1 15.9 0.2 15.9EBIT 14.4 8.7 (0.7) 16.6 14.4 25.9
Net interest expenses (20.9) (21.8) (1.4) (1.1) (22.4) (23.2)
Other financial items (0.5) (1.3) (0.2) (0.4) (0.7) (1.6)Net finance (21.4) (23.0) (1.6) (1.7) (23.1) (24.7)Taxes (1.1) (0.5) (0.4) (1.8) (1.5) (2.3)Net results (8.0) (14.8) (2.7) 13.2 (10.2) (1.1)EPS (0.10) (0.18) — — (0.13) (0.01)Voyage days 6,308 6,243 — — 6,308 6,243
Income statement1 – Odfjell Group by division Financials
1. Proportional consolidation method *Total Includes contribution from Gas Carriers classified as held for sale 5
Assets, USD mill 2Q19 3Q19Ships and newbuilding contracts 1,345.0 1,379.4Rights of use assets 231.3 218.3Investment in associates and JVs 169.8 161.2Other non-current assets/receivables 25.9 25.3Total non-current assets 1,772.0 1,783.9Cash and cash equivalent 104.6 111.5Current receivables 110.1 79.5Other current assets 25.8 23.8Total current assets 240.6 214.8Total assets 2,012.6 1,998.7
Equity and liabilities, USD mill 2Q19 3Q19Total equity 564.2 554.6Non-current interest bearing debt 865.4 893.2Non-current interest bearing debt, right of use assets 188.1 177.1Non-current liabilities and derivatives 28.2 37.9Total non-current liabilities 1,081.8 1,108.2Current portion of interest bearing debt 224.6 199.3Current portion of interest bearing debt, right of use assets 46.6 45.9Other current liabilities and derivatives 95.4 91.0Total current liabilities 366.6 336.2Total equity and liabilities 2,012.6 1,998.7
Book value of ships increased following the delivery of one newbuilding during the quarter
Current receivable reduced following a temporary increase in 2Q19
Increased debt relates to financing of newbuilding delivery
1. Equity method
Financials
Balance sheet 30.09.20191 - Odfjell Group
6
Cash flow, USD mill 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 FY18Net profit (14.9) (9.5) (1.7) (209.3)Adjustments 33.8 35.8 39.0 104.6Change in working capital (5.8) (14.8) 21.8 (20.6)Other (1.9) 5.7 21.8 167.9Cash flow from operating activities 11.2 17.2 45.5 42.6Sale of ships, property, plant and equipment 2.0 — — —Investments in non-current assets (17.4) (14.3) (57.7) (193.9)Dividend/ other from investments in Associates and JV's — — 20.7 81.1Other 0.1 (0.1) 0.8 14.0Cash flow from investing activities (15.3) (14.2) (36.2) (98.8)New interest bearing debt 20.5 (0.6) 268.5 301.3Repayment of interest bearing debt (35.8) (24.8) (238.9) (267.8)Payment of operational lease debt (9.9) (11.3) (11.7)Dividends — — — (14.6)Other — — — (1.2)Cash flow from financing activities (25.2) (36.7) (2.0) 17.7Net cash flow* (29.3) (33.6) 7.0 (39.0)
Improved working capital after a temporary increase in the previousquarter
Dividend received from Odfjell Terminals related to sale of JiangyinTerminal before adjusting for taxes and transaction fees
Financing cash flow related to concluded refinancings during the quarter and repayment of september 2019 bond
1. Equity method2. * After FX effects
Financials
7
Cash flow – 30.09.2019 – Odfjell Group1
8
USD per metric tonne
42.946.7
40.8 39.3 40.0
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
USD
mill
2Q191Q193Q18 3Q194Q18
424398 378 398
350
0
100
200
300
400
500
4Q183Q18 2Q191Q19 3Q19
-12%
Average Platts 3.5% FOB Rotterdam
Gross bunker cost 50.0
Financial hedging -
Adj. Clauses (4.2)
3rd party vessels (3.0)
Net bunker cost 42.9
55.9
-
(4.9)
(4.3)
46.7
47.4
(0.4)
(1.2)
(5.1)
40.8
46.9
(0.6)
(1.8)
(5.3)
39.3
47.0
(0.1)
(1.7)
(5.1)
40.0
Bunker costs after bunker adjustment clauses was USD 40 millcompared to USD 39 mill 2Q19
Bunker adjustment clauses hedged 55% of our total volumesduring the quarter
Our planning for IMO 2020 is progressing as planned and we plan to consume compliant fuel from January 2020. Increased bunker costs will be passed on to customers
We have hedged 9,000 tonnes of MGO for the fourth quarter and has no financial hedges for 2020
Financials
Bunker expenses – 30.09.2019 – Odfjell Tankers
9
Scheduled repayments and planned refinancing, USD mill
Gross debt ending balance, USD mill
ODF07 repaid with cash from balancesheet, total USD 62 mill
Three term loan facilities refinanced with a USD 180 mill RCF
4Q19 balloon has been refinanced in October and leverage reduced
880
1 400
-2000
200400600800
1 0001 200
1 600
20212019 2020 2022
1 150 1 2191 033
Repayment Ending balance year-endPlanned vessel financing
0
50
100
150
200
3Q214Q204Q19 2Q211Q20 2Q20 3Q20 1Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
Bond Balloon Leasing/sale-leaseback Secured loans
Debt to increase in 2020 due to deliveryof newbuildings
Focus remain on reducing debt to lower our break-even levels…
Timing of reaching our targets are market dependent
Financials
Refinanced
Debt development – Corporate and chemical tankers
10
Financials
Target to reach daily break-even level of USD18,000-USD19,500 per day… …Concluded refinancings ytd will reduce break-even levels for the vessels
Reducing our daily break-even levels is high on the agenda to ensure we can generate positive cash flow in any market
We have lowered the daily break-even levels by USD 400/day through refinancings on nine vessels during the third quarter and through redeeming the bond in September 2019 (lower interest rates)
Source: Odfjell SE CMD 2019
Concluded refinancing has been done at attractive levels and will reduce daily break-even for the vessels involved
Financials
We have secured financing for all chemical tanker newbuildings and no equity instalments remains
The first newbuilding from Hudong was delivered in August 2019. Remaining capex for 2019 relates to second newbuilding from Hudong scheduled for delivery in November
We have no capital commitments for chemical tankers beyond 2020
Other chemical tanker investments for the next three years amounts to about USD 11 mill, mainly related to installation of ballast water treatment systems.
We expect the average annual docking capitalization to be about USD 15 million in the years ahead
Odfjell Terminals maintenance capex through 2021 is USD 3 mill **
USD mill 2019 2020 2021
Chemical Tanker newbuildings
Hudong 3 x 49,00 dwt (USD 60 mill) 42 84 —
Hudong 2 x 38,000 dwt (USD 58 mill) 6 87 —
Total 48 171 —
Instalment structure - Newbuildings
Debt installment 48 171 —
Equity installment — — —
Tank Terminals (Odfjell share)*
Planned expansion capex —** —** 1**
* Tank Terminals to be self-funded meaning no cash flow from Odfjell SE to meet guided capital expenditures – Tank terminal Capex listed in table is expansions that will impact our P&L**Our capital expenditure programme for the US will be updated when a new strategy has been concluded together with our new JV partner at the US terminals.
11
Capital expenditure programme – 30.09.2019
AgendaHighlights
Financials
Operational review/Strategy
Prospects and Market update
COA coverage and rates were stable during the quarter. Our stance to not pursue low COA rates in present market remains intact
13
3Q-17
4Q-16
1Q-15
2Q-18
2Q-15
1Q-16
2Q-19
4Q-15
3Q-16
3Q-15
2Q-16
1Q-17
2Q-17
4Q-17
1Q-18
3Q-18
4Q-18
1Q-19
3Q-19
Contract coverage
COA rates Spot rates
Contract coverage was stable during the quarter
Our stance to not pursue low COA rate renewals remains intact
This adds higher exposure to firming spot rates and we could see lower COA coverage going forward
COA rates vs spot rate development in main tradelanes
Spot rates on main tradelanes increased by 2% during the quarter
Limited amount of COA renewals this quarter
Average COA rate renewals are up 6.1% on average in 2019 (up from 5.7% as of 2Q19)
Comments:
56% 54%
70%
55% 57% 60% 61% 58% 61% 60% 59%55% 55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
4Q15 3Q172Q171Q16 2Q16 1Q173Q16 4Q174Q16 1Q18 2Q18 3Q193Q18
49%
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19
48% 50%
COA coverage Average
Operational review/Strategy
60
80
100
120
140
160
201520122008 2010 20142009 2011 2013 20192016 2017 2018
-7.8%
-1.4%Chemical tanker spot earnings index (midcycle = 100)Source: Clarkson Platou
Odfix indexOdfix average 2008-2018
0,0
3,0
6,0
4Q17
0,4
2Q18 3Q18 1Q19
3,8
2Q19
3,3
0,4
3Q19
3,4 3,5 3,43,8
1Q18
3,7
Mill
ion
tonn
es
4Q18
0,5
3Q17
3,3 3,3
3,0 3,1
0,4 0,50,5
3,3
0,5
3,1 3,2 3,0
3,6
Volumes carried (Odfjell owned Inc. TC/BB)Volumes carried by Pool & Commercial mgt
147 197 164253
212
128
288 348
0
8 000
4507 000
5 500
7 500
6 000
6 500
3Q17
7 189
169
1Q191Q18 3Q18
7 133
4Q18
6 3086 293
2Q19
7 284
3Q192Q18
6 636
7 237
6 7067 065
7 4347 666
7 400
4Q17
6 5446 274
7 636
7 025
6 243
Voyage days (Total inc. Pool & Commercial mgt)Voyage days (Odfjell owned inc. TC & BB)
Off-hire days RHA (Odfjell owned)
Operational review/Strategy
ODFIX underperformed the general market index this quarter. This is driven by:ODFIX reflecting lower volumes while spot index is a pure rate index (rates)
Volumes decreased due to:Seasonally higher plant maintenance and seasonal lower demandIncreased competition from swing tonnage, especially on back-haul routes
Odfjell Tankers volume developmentObservations
ODFIX versus chemical tanker spot rates Odfjell Tankers voyage days development
14
Tankers: ODFIX underperformed the general market index this quarter due to less volumes carried
Increased volatility of bunker fuel spreads after the summer. This is mainly driven by HFO prices due to preparations for lower demand
HFO and VLSFO price spread ranged between USD 120 and USD 215 per tonne in October depending on port (in periods, VLSFO and HFO was priced at par in Ulsan and Singapore)
Forward prices are still indicating VLSFO prices in Rotterdam to be at similar levels as HFO in 2018 and 2019
Still too early to conclude……But the price differential seen between bunkers with
3.5% sulfur content and 1% sulfur content was USD 38/tonne on average could be another indicator that the price spread/hike won’t be as severe as feared:
15
Operational review/Strategy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
ShanghaiFujairahRotterdam
USD/
tonn
e
HoustonSingapore Ulsan New York 2020 forwards*
MGO VLSFO HFO HFO Purchase price 2018 HFO Purchase price 2019
Source: Platts, Morgan Stanley, Odfjell SE, Averge prices for October 2019
IMO 2020: Price spreads between fuels and ports are volatile mainly caused by changes in HFO – 2020 forwards indicates bunker costs in line with 2018/19
Observations
0
10
20
30
40
0
200
400
600
800
USD/
tonn
e
2012
USD/
tonn
e
2014201320112010
HFO (3.5% Sox) Bunker fuel (1.0% Sox) Avg spread
Price overview of MGO, HFO and VLSFO (0.5%) by major port (October 2019 avg.)
Price spread between 3.5% bunker fuel vs 1.0% bunker fuel in Rotterdam between 2010-2014
16
93% 93%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q182Q16 4Q173Q16 2Q174Q16 1Q17 3Q17 2Q 18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19
Stable utilisation during the quarter
EBITDA margins slightly improved following reduced G&A costs
Our largest terminal in Houston benefits from a strong storage market and high activity. With a fully occupied terminal, focus is on improving efficiencies and grow existing land at the terminal
As a part of LG's exit from Asia, Odfjell SE may consider to tag along on a sale of its ownership in the terminals in China
Operational review/Strategy
94% 95% 99% 99% 98% 99% 100% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q17 3Q191Q18 3Q182Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19
Odfjell Terminals: Utilisation development Odfjell Terminals Houston quarterly utilisation
Odfjell Terminals: EBITDA and margin developmentComments
0510152025303540
0
5
10
15
USD
mill
1Q17
%
3Q162Q16 4Q16 3Q172Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19
EBITDA margin EBITDA
Terminals: Slightly improved margins following reorganisation of Odfjell Terminals – Houston to remain a key focus area going forward
17
Odfjell has done and is actively working on reducing our environmental footprint through various initiatives – Odfjell is acting today for a better tomorrow
‘’ Our license to operate is dependent on our social responsibility – In our view, profitability and sustainability are interconnected. As a global company, we have a responsibility for our
employees, our investors, our customers, the local communities where we operate, and the global environment – and we will only be able to prosper and grow if we act in a sustainable way. We
build for the future, and act today for a better tomorrow’’
Kristian Mørch, CEO Odfjell SE Odfjell Sustainability report June 2018
Categories Odfjell ranking
Business Ethics 1 out of 17
Corporate Governance 5 out of 17
Carbon – Own operations 2 out of 17
Emissions, Effluents, and waste 4 out of 17
Human Capital 13 out of 17
Occupational health and safety 4 out of 17
Overall ESG ranking 5 out of 65
Odfjell ESG ranking:
Source: Sustainalytics, Odfjell SE
EEOI
Weatherrouting
Fuel cellproject
Propeller polishing
Active role in various ESG
relatedinitiatives
Retentionrate/
Personellexperience
Detailed EEOI monitoring has been ongoing since 2009 Our g CO2/ tonne mile has been reduced by 33% in the corresponding period36% of Odfjell vessels will move from D to A+ in Energy rating
Advanced weather routing systems to avoid bad weather and take advantage of currents
2018 effect: Saved 75 days – 1,980 tonnes of fuel - 6,138 tonnes CO2
Fuel cell project to be piloted on an Odfjell ship within two years Fuelled by LNG, Ammonia, Ethanol, BiofuelsReductions: 35% Fuel consumption - 54% CO2 - 90% SOx – 80% NOx
Polishing propeller blades on our ships increases efficiency by 11%Studies from NTNU states that this can increase speed by 0.5 knots that
equates to 100 tonnes less fuel on a Panama-Yokohama journey
98% retention rate among Odfjell seafarers96% of all officers served on board super-segregators (unique class familiarityA skilled and experienced crew is crucial to operate our fleet in a efficient and safe
manner – We don’t compromise on safety
MACN, UN Global Compact Membership, Membership Cardo Disclosure Project, Pledge signed to achieve UN SDGs, Diversity policy, Local CSR policy, The getting to Zero Coalition, CLIMMS, NCE Maritime Cleantech, Compliance to various other efforts and reporting initiatives like Poseidon Principle, Ecovadis, Trident Alliance +++
Operational review/Strategy
AgendaHighlights
Financials
Operational review/Strategy
Prospects and Market update
VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 LR1 MR Vegoils Chemicals
3Q-19 Oct-19
26,297
120,245
17,495
83,423
12,543
46,991
15,039
43,232
12,900
26,427
12,900
19,43617,750 18,100*
3Q-19 Oct-19 3Q-19 Oct-19 3Q-19 Oct-19 3Q-19 Oct-19 3Q-19 Oct-19 3Q-19 Oct-19 3Q-19
The tightening VLCC market has filtered through all vessel classes in line with historical correlation patterns – Chemicals having the longest time lag
TCE
rate
s (U
SD/d
ay)
Source: Clarksons Platou Securities, Odfjell * Odfjell SE 3Q19 TCE revenues/day
0.86 0.84
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Corr
elat
ion
coef
ficie
nt
VLCC & MR MR &Odfjell Deep-sea TCE
Historical annual correlations (2004-2019)
23,050
Comments
Historical correlation between tanker segments are high…
…with product tankers swinging intocrude…
…and product tankers swinging intovegoils and chemicals…
…and chemical tankers swinging into oilproducts
There has historically been a time lag up to 6 to 8 weeks before the effect reacheschemicals…
…and another 6 to 8 weeks before visible in P&L accounts…
A sustainable recovery in crude and products is therefore needed to impactchemicals
Market update
19
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%25,5%
jan-17
sep-19
jun-19
jan-18
jan-16
jan-19
27,2%Trading chemicals/Vegoil Trading CPP/Crude
02468
101214
apr-19jan-19 feb-19 mar-19 mai-19 jun-19 jul-19
CPP
Palm
Oil
Chem
ical
s
1
2
3
28 incremental MR’s were trading chemical/vegoils compared to June
CPP suffered from Saudi attacks in September, but has since then recovered
Swing tonnage expected to be reduced in coming months
2019 has been a strong year for palm oil shipments with a tonne-mile demand growth of 7.6% y/y (January to July)
This has supported Vegoil rates…
… And partly contributed to continued high influx of swing tonnage in our markets in 2019
Stable rates during the quarter…
… But high plant turnaround and seasonally lower demand impacted volumes
We find it encouraging to see rates holding up despite increased swing tonnage last quarter – Signalling the underlying firming trend for chemical tankers
Annual tonn-mile demand (3-month rolling y/y) Annual demand growth (Jan-Jul 2019) 30
0
5
10
25
15
20
jan-2018
jan-2016
jan-2017
des-2018
Oct-19
0
20
40
60
80
jan-2017
jan-2016
jan-2018
des-2018
2520
0
5
30
10
15
jan-2016
jan-2018
jan-2017
des-2018
Oct-19
Thousand USD/day
Thousand USD/day
USD/Tonne
Source: Clarksons Platou, Odfjell, SPI Marine
Continued influx of swing tonnage, seasonally weaker demand and plant turnarounds led to a slower third quarter but still with a strong underlying trend
Fundamental drivers: Rate development: Comments:
25
0
5
10
15
20
mai-19jan-19 feb-19 mar-19 apr-19 jun-19 jul-19 nov-19aug-19 sep-19 okt-19 des-19
Planned maintenance Unplanned maintenance
20
Market update
Source: Clarksons Platou, Odfjell
Orderbook remains low together with appetite for new orders – A reversal of swing tonnage is a key for the chemical tanker recovery to gain pace
Market update
21
Orderbook to fleet ratio (total fleet) New orders
Limited interest for new ordersAccess to financing is a bottleneck that could hinder major series of
speculative newbuilding ordersThe shipping industry is exposed to environmental regulations and are
facing a propulsion dilemma – This could dampen owners appetite for new orders
Orderbook as a per cent of total fleet is at historical low’sFleet growth projected to 1.8% for 2020 and 1.6% for 2021Odfjell accounts for a meaningful share of the outstanding orderbook
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
jan-
02
jan-
16
jan-
12
jan-
14
jan-
17
jan-
10
jan-
20
jan-
18
jan-
19
jan-
04
jan-
99
jan-
00
jan-
07
jan-
11
jan-
15
jan-
03
jan-
08
jan-
09
jan-
13
jan-
06
jan-
01
jan-
05
%
Historical low’sOrderboook %
jan-
11
jan-
08
jan-
10
jan-
14
100
jan-
16
400
jan-
99
jan-
13
600
jan-
20
jan-
09
50
jan-
00
0
jan-
01
200
300
550500
jan-
03
jan-
12
jan-
15
jan-
04
jan-
17
150
jan-
07
jan-
19
jan-
18
jan-
02
350
650
450
jan-
06
250
jan-
05
k/dw
t
12-month rolling orders Historical average
Seasonally weaker 3Q19
Key directional drivers in 4Q19
GDP & Middle East tensions
Orderbook
Swing tonnage
IMO 2020Scrapping – Slowsteaming –
Swing tonnage
Dem
and
Supp
ly
+4%p.a. + tonne-mile effect
The market has gone through a period with high fleet growth, but we expect more rational growth towards 2020
12
Deep-sea fleet development, DWT mill.
72
62
928994
66
1681
5968
11
88
68
54
1213
17
74
75
77
15
76
1613
53
20092008 20142011
9
2010
47
2012 2018E 2020E2013
51
2017
50
2019E
5710
2015
5672
2016
41
126110
1264
Core fleetSwing/other fleet
+6%p.a.
+2%p.a.
ce: Odfjell
Yowth +14% +1%+7% +5% +2% +4% +5% +5% +8% +8% +2% +3%+2%
p.a. +/- Swing tonnage
Market update
Market outlook conclusion: Tonne-mile demand outlook remains robust and slower supply growth should ensure a continued recovery of our markets
22
Third quarter was seasonally impacted by lower demand and high maintenance on chemical plantsGeopolitical tensions (Saudi attacks) created a short-term slowdown in our markets in September
Ramp up new plants in the US and Middle East keeps supporting demand, although some delaysImproved crude & product tanker rates adds incremental demand for chemical tankers on back-hauls
IMF downgrades global GDP outlook for the fifth consecutive time. Structural shifts and limited supply growth to support a continued recovery
Orderbook to fleet ratio at low levelsAppetite for new orders remains low – Regulations and propulsion dilemma could dampen new orders
Swing tonnage increased this quarter due to MR newbuilding deliveries and a weakening CPP marketStronger CPP rates could reverse last year’s trend and significantly impact supply in our markets
Increased bunker costs to be passed on to customers. Owners needs to be disciplined in spot as well Biggest effect from IMO 2020 would be reduced swing tonnage from CPP tonnage
Lower earnings compared to previous quarter driven by seasonality – Underlying trend points to a continued firming marketResults
Spot rates and COA rates keeps having a strong momentum since the market turned in late 2018 but are still at low levelsOperational/strategic review
Stable performance which is expected to continue going forward – Houston remains a focus area for growth in this divisionOdfjell Terminals
Encouraging to see Crude and CPP markets improving – Underlying demand growth is strong and supply growth is limitedMarket outlook
We expect to report improved results in the fourth quarter - We reiterate that the chemical tanker market recovery should continue into 2020Prospects
Odfjell SE – Summary and Prospects
Prospects
23
Contact
Investor Relations & Research: Bjørn Kristian Røed | Tlph: +47 40 91 98 68 | Email: [email protected]: Anngun Dybsland | Tel: + 41 54 88 54 | Email: [email protected]
ODFJELL SE | Conrad Mohrs veg 29 | P.O. Box 6101 Postterminalen | 5892 Bergen, Norway Tel: +47 55 27 00 00 | Email: [email protected] | Org. no: 930 192 503
Odfjell.com