agenda item 7 powerpoint presentation “review of …€œreview of stressors onreview of stressors...

“Review of Stressors onReview of Stressors on the Delta Ecosystem”y

Title of IEP Lead Scientist Talk to NRC, 12/8/2010

www.water.ca.gov/iep/

Agenda Item 7 PowerPoint Presentation

• The Interagency Ecological Program• The Interagency Ecological Program at 40 – “Bay-Delta Science Family”

• Drivers of Change in the g2010 POD Report – “Three Stories about Drivers/Stressors”about Drivers/Stressors

Good Drivers

… Gone Bad


• The Interagency Ecological Program• The Interagency Ecological Program at 40 – “Bay-Delta Science Family”

• Drivers of Change in the g2010 POD Report – “Three Stories about Drivers/Stressors”about Drivers/Stressors

L f E t M t• Lessons for Ecosystem Management and the Delta Plan


But firstBut first…An experiment

2008Chelsea Green Publishing


Long-term IEP Monitoring Shows Fish Declines“Pelagic Organism Decline” (POD) Investigation since 2005

Delta Smelt1.8

sand

s)

Striped Bass20

ds)

g g ( ) g

Listed since 1993(Age-0)

0 6

0.9

1.2

1.5

(Tho

usda

nce

Inde

x

10

15

(Tho

usan

nce

Inde

x

2009Lowest

0.0

0.3

0.6

66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

Abu

nd

0

5

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Abu

ndanLowest

Longfin Smelt

161820

ousa

nds)

Threadfin Shad

14

16

usan

ds)Listed since 2010

468

101214(T

hobu

ndan

ce In

dex

4

6

8

10

12(T

hou

unda

nce

Inde

x

2009Lowest

024

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Ab

0

2

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Abu

Source DFG 2009 Fall MW Trawl - No indices in 1974, 1976 and 1979


1. “Basic Ecology Story”Multiple Drivers… in Combination

Habitat (Home)Habitat (Home)

Parents LossesFood

Parents Losses


2. “Fish Stories”Different Fish… Different Responses

Habitat (Home)Habitat (Home)

Habitat (Home)Habitat (Home) Habitat (Home)Habitat (Home)


f3. “Regime Shift Story”Loss of Ecological Resilience

Old Regime Collapses, New Regime


Historical ChangesJohn Wiens, 9/27/2010


Changes in Drivers

J. Davis et al 2010 – Multiple Stressors and Regime Shifts… Freshw. Biol.


Changes in Drivers

R i ShiftRegime Shift



Changes in Drivers



Loss of Ecological ResilienceC ll N R iCollapse, New Regime

BDCP Reports Announcement, Nov 16, 2010:…[Resources Secretary] Snow said, “our progress in developing the Bay Delta Conservation Plan speaks to a growing consensus that we must achieve a Delta ecosystem that is more resilientand improve the state’s water supply reliability.”

C. Folke et al 2004 – Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst

p pp y y


Loss of Ecological ResilienceC ll N R iCollapse, New Regime

Cup size: Resilience

Cup = state of the system/drivers

Ball = state of the communityBall = state of the community



p pp y y


Loss of Ecological ResilienceC ll N R i


Collapse, New Regime

Resilience erodes



p pp y y





Resilience erodes

Regime Shift






Resilience erodes

Regime Shift New Regime

Newly Resilient!



Ecological Regime Shift StoryEcological Regime Shift Story

From river estuary to “weedy lake”From river estuary1873

… to weedy lakeToday

Clear Lake


Regime Shift Winners:Non-Native & Nuisance Species

“…the most invaded aquatic

Non-Native & Nuisance Species

…the most invaded aquatic ecosystem in the world.”

(Cohen & Carlton, Science 1998)

~4 new species/year


Regime Shift Losers:Native Species, Unique Natural Heritage

Delta smelt Longfin smelt

p , q g

Listed since 1993

Listed since 2009

SalmonGreen Sturgeon

Listed since 1989(+)Listed since 2006


“Spatial fragmentation, homogenization, and loss of disturbance regimes … favor small, easily dispersed species able to invade human-dominated ecosystems – the tramp species colonizers nitrogen-tolerant species pestsecosystems the tramp species, colonizers, nitrogen tolerant species, pests, and pathogens.” David Western, PNAS 2001


Resilience DriversOld Regime

Variable, High

To the west, Variable

EnvironmentalDrivers

Outflow

Salinity gradient

New Regime

Variable, Lower

To the east, Constricted

Complex, Variable

Low, Variable

High, Variable

Landscape

Temperature

Turbidity

Simplified,Rigid

High, Uniform

Low, Less variable

High P, low N

Few, Low

Predation, Fishing

Nutrients

Contaminants

“Harvest”

Low P, High N (NH4+)

Many, High

Predation and Entrainment

Natives dominatePelagic Fishes, Mysids, Large

Copepods Diatoms

InvasivesdominateEdge & Benthic Fishes, Clams, Jellyfish, Small Copepods,

Copepods, Diatomsy , p p ,

Microcystis, Aquatic weeds

Not stable


“Command and Control” Management Erosion of Resilience

Ecosystem Regime A(Desired)( )

Stabilization,Optimization

Ecosystem Goods and Services

Loss of Resilience,Increased ServicesIncreased Vulnerability

Ecosystem Regime B(Undesired)( )

Folke et al. 2002“Managing for Social-Ecological Resilience and Sustainability”


Adaptive Management Sustain Resilience and Build Adaptive Capacity (Options)

Ecosystem Regime A(Desired)

p p y ( p )

Ecosystem Regime C ( )

Disturbances, Diversity

(“Good Enough”)

COST!Ecosystem Goods and Services

Diversity

SCIENCE!COST!

Services

RestorationMORE

Ecosystem Regime B(Undesired)

MORE COST!

Folke et al. 2002“Managing for Social-Ecological Resilience and Sustainability”

( )


AnalysisSynthesis

ModelingModeling

Commum

on

yReview

mmunication

ong-

Term

oper

atio

Dr. IEP Science … Does Science

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For Policy

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esearch

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AnalysisSynthesis

ModelingModeling

Commum

on

yReview

Science mmunication

ong-

Term

oper

atioScience

Program, ISB

Dr. IEP Science … Does Science

ngLo Coo

ResResIEPFor Policy

onito

ring esearch

esearch

IEPM

o


Adaptive Management Sustain Resilience and Build Adaptive Capacity (Options)

It’s not just the Delta…

p p y ( p )

Contaminants Climate Change

j

ContaminantsRockström et al. Nature 2009 –Nine interlinkedNine interlinked “planetary boundaries” keeping earth in “desirable” state

NutrientsBiodiversity

desirable state

Freshwater UseLand Use


Adaptive Management Sustain Resilience and Build Adaptive Capacity (Options)p p y ( p )

River Bi di it

Human WaterBiodiversity Water

Security

30 Sep 2010


Adaptive Management Sustain Resilience and Build Adaptive Capacityp p y

It’s not just the Delta…j

P bl t iProblems not unique…But the place (system) is uniqueBut the place (system) is unique.

Solutions have to fit the place.


Questions?Questions?Thanks!

“Planning for the future without a sense Thanks!

gof history is like planting cut flowers.“

Daniel BoorstinDaniel BoorstinHistorian and Librarian of Congress

[email protected]


agenda item 7 powerpoint presentation “review of …€œreview of stressors onreview of stressors...

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