agenda item #3: presentation of the final outcome (ranking ... · agenda item #3: presentation of...

Agenda item #3: Presentation of the final outcome

(ranking) of the application of the I2P2 to the list of Union

quarantine pests qualifying as potential priority pests.

Berta Sánchez

Jesús Barreiro-Hurle

Emilio Rodríguez-Cerezo

Iria Soto-Embodas

European Commission

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Unit D.4 Economics of Agriculture

Expert Group Meeting on Plant Health Legislation – Brussels May 27th 2019

Quantitative or qualitative measuresIndicators selection

Measuring indicators based on available

statistics and expertsData selection

Allows comparing indicators with different

scales; dimensions or unitsNormalization

To aggregate indicators based on weights

set by the Legislator(s)Weighting

Probabilities and sensitivity analysisUncertainty of data

How to identify measurable indicators?

OECD and JRC-COIN steps!We are really

done!

I2P2: Final adjustments

I.19 – Presence of affected hosts on cultural heritage

landmarks only for forestry hosts

Annex I Section 1 (all crops)– Landscape heritage

Annex I Section 2 (important tree species) - Landscape as well as cultural

or historical heritage for the Union

JRC PROPOSAL - Use two versions of I.19 depending on whether the host is a crop or a tree

For crops consider only responses to UNESCO WHL

For trees consider also presence in coat of arms, anthem and major works of arts

𝐶𝐻 = 0.5 𝑥𝐶𝐻1 + 0.5𝑥𝐶𝐻2 + 𝐶𝐻3 + 𝐶𝐻4 + 𝐶𝐻5

4

𝐶𝐻𝑘 =

𝑗=1

𝑗=𝑛

𝑖=1

𝑖=28

𝑋𝑖 ∀𝑘 1,5

𝐶𝐻 = 0.5 𝑥𝐶𝐻1

5

I2P2 Crops

6

20 pests

assessed

Tilletia i. Xanthomonas c. Phyllosticta c. Synchytrium e.

Clavibacter m. Candidatus l. Flavescence d. Sprodoptera f.

Ralstonia s. Anastrepha l. Rhagoletis p. Popillia j.

Bactrocera d. Bactrocera z. Bactericera c. Antonomus e.

Xylella f. Thaumatotibia l. Thrips p. Conotrachelus n.

7

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV

Xylella fastidiosa (Pierce's disease) 1 0.8104 1 1 1

Popillia japonica (Japanese beetle) 2 0.5117 4 3 2

Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Citrus codling moth) 3 0.4714 8 2 3

Candidatus liberibacter (Citrus greening) 4 0.3750 2 5 5

Conotrachelus nenuphar 5 0.3349 10 6 4

Anthonomus eugenii 6 0.2960 5 9 7

Bactericera cockerelli 7 0.2792 7 4 14

Rhagoletis pomonella (Apple maggot fly) 8 0.2728 3 12 10

Spodoptera frugiperda (Fall armyworm) 9 0.2246 11 10 11

Bactrocera dorsalis (Oriental fruit fly) 10 0.2068 17 11 8

Anastrepha ludens (Mexican fruit fly) 11 0.2051 16 14 6

Bactrocera zonata (Peach fruit fly) 12 0.1983 15 13 9

Grapevine flavescence doree (Flavescence doree of grapevine) 13 0.1958 9 16 12

Ralstonia solanacearum (Bacterial wilt; Brown rot) 14 0.1747 12 7 17

Thrips palmi 15 0.1707 20 8 13

Xanthomonas citri (Citrus canker) 16 0.1321 19 18 15

Phyllosticta citricarpa (Black spot of citrus) 17 0.1262 18 19 16

Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt of wheat) 18 0.1220 6 20 20

Clavibacter michiganensis ssp. Sepedonicus (bacterial ring rot of potato) 19 0.1126 13 15 19

Synchytrium endobioticum (Wart disease of potato) 20 0.0930 14 17 18

RANKING

8

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV















Thrips palmi 15 0.1707 20 8 13






RANKING Group #1 I2P2 > 0.40 + ranking 1st or 2nd for any domain

9

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV















Thrips palmi 15 0.1707 20 8 13






RANKING Group #1 I2P2 > 0.40 + ranking 1st to 3rd for any domain

Group #2 I2P2 > 0.20 + ranking 1st to 10th for any domain

10

Prioritization

options

Group 1 Xylella f. Popillia j. Thaumatotibia l.

Group 2Candidatus l. Conotrachelus n. Anthonomus e.

Bactericera c. Rhagoletis p. Sprodoptera f.

Bacterocera d. Anastrepha l.

11

Sensitivity analysis: crops

a) alternative weights

12

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV
















Thrips palmi 16 0.1429 20 8 13





40 – 20 –

40

Group 1 NO CHANGE

50 – 25 –

25

13

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV
















Thrips palmi 16 0.1429 20 8 13





40 – 20 –

40

Group 1

Group 2

NO CHANGE

50 – 25 –

25

G.f.d. in / B.d. out

14

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV















Thrips palmi 15 0.1601 19 8 13






40 – 20 –

40

Group 1

Group 2

NO CHANGE

50 – 25 –

25

Group 1 NO CHANGE


I2P2 ECO SOC ENV
















Thrips palmi 16 0.1429 20 8 13





15

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV















Thrips palmi 15 0.1601 19 8 13






40 – 20 –

40

Group 1

Group 2

NO CHANGE

50 – 25 –

25

Group 1 NO CHANGE


G.f.d. + R.s. in

B.d. + A.l. outGroup 2

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV
















Thrips palmi 16 0.1429 20 8 13





16

Sensitivity analysis: crops


b) incorporating uncertainty

17

Pest

Median Q25 Q75

Ranking Ranking Change Ranking Change

Xylella fastidiosa (Pierce's disease) 1 1 = 1 =

Popillia japonica (Japanese beetle) 2 2 = 2 =

Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Citrus codling moth) 3 3 = 3 =

Candidatus liberibacter (Citrus greening) 4 4 = 5 -1

Conotrachelus nenuphar 5 5 = 4 1

Anthonomu eugeni 6 6 = 8 -2

Bactericera cockerelli 7 7 = 7 =

Rhagoletis pomonella (Apple maggot fly) 8 10 -2 6 2

Spodoptera frugiperda (Fall armyworm) 9 8 1 9 =

Bactrocera dorsalis (Oriental fruit fly) 10 11 -1 10 =

Anastrepha ludens (Mexican fruit fly) 11 9 2 11 =

Grapevine flavescence doree (Flavescence doree of grapevine) 12 12 = 12 =

Bactrocera zonata (Peach fruit fly) 13 13 = 13 =

Ralstonia solanacearum (Bacterial wilt; Brown rot) 14 15 -1 14 =

Thrips palmi 15 14 1 15 =

Xanthomonas citri (Citrus canker) 16 17 -1 16 =

Phyllosticta citricarpa (Black spot of citrus) 17 18 -1 17 =

Clavibacter michiganensis ssp. Sepedonicus (bacterial ring rot of potato) 18 16 2 18 =

Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt of wheat) 19 19 = 19 =

Synchytrium endobioticum (Wart disease of potato 20 20 = 20 =

Q - 25

Group 1 Group 2

NO CHANGE NO CHANGE

18

Pest

Median Q25 Q75

Ranking Ranking Change Ranking Change

Xylella fastidiosa (Pierce's disease) 1 1 = 1 =

Popillia japonica (Japanese beetle) 2 2 = 2 =

Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Citrus codling moth) 3 3 = 3 =

Candidatus liberibacter (Citrus greening) 4 4 = 5 -1

Conotrachelus nenuphar 5 5 = 4 1

Anthonomu eugeni 6 6 = 8 -2

Bactericera cockerelli 7 7 = 7 =

Rhagoletis pomonella (Apple maggot fly) 8 10 -2 6 2

Spodoptera frugiperda (Fall armyworm) 9 8 1 9 =

Bactrocera dorsalis (Oriental fruit fly) 10 11 -1 10 =

Anastrepha ludens (Mexican fruit fly) 11 9 2 11 =

Grapevine flavescence doree (Flavescence doree of grapevine) 12 12 = 12 =

Bactrocera zonata (Peach fruit fly) 13 13 = 13 =

Ralstonia solanacearum (Bacterial wilt; Brown rot) 14 15 -1 14 =

Thrips palmi 15 14 1 15 =

Xanthomonas citri (Citrus canker) 16 17 -1 16 =

Phyllosticta citricarpa (Black spot of citrus) 17 18 -1 17 =

Clavibacter michiganensis ssp. Sepedonicus (bacterial ring rot of potato) 18 16 2 18 =

Tilletia indica (Karnal bunt of wheat) 19 19 = 19 =

Synchytrium endobioticum (Wart disease of potato 20 20 = 20 =

Q - 25 Q - 50

Group 1 Group 2

NO CHANGE

Group 1

NO CHANGE

Group 2

NO CHANGENO CHANGE

19

I2P2 forestry

20

6 pests

assessed

Agrilus a. Agrilus p. Ceratocystis f. Anoplophora g.

Bursaphelencus x. Dendrolimus s.

21

RANKING Group #1 I2P2 > 0.50 + ranking 1st any domain

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV

Anaplophora glabripennis 1 0.5659 6 1 1

AgrilusAnxius (Bronze birch borer) 2 0.3925 2 2 4

Dendrolimus sibiricus 3 0.3037 4 5 2

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Pine wood nematode) 4 0.2752 5 3 3

Agrilus planipennis (Emerald ash borer) 5 0.2690 1 4 5

Ceratocystis fagacearum (Oak wilt) 6 0.1185 7 6 6

22

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV








Group #2 I2P2 > 0.30 + ranking 1st to 3rd for any domain

23


Group #2 I2P2 > 0.30 + ranking 1st to 3rd for any domain

Group #3 I2P2 > 0.20 + ranking 1st to 5th in any domain

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







24

Prioritization

options

Group 1 Anoplophora g.

Agrilus a.Group 2

Group 3 Bursaphelencus x. Agrilus p.

Dendrolimus s.

25

Sensitivity analysis: forestry


26

40 – 20 – 40

Group 1 NO CHANGE

50 – 0 – 50

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







27

40 – 20 – 40

Group 1

Group 2

NO CHANGE

NO CHANGE

50 – 0 – 50

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







28

40 – 20 – 40

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

NO CHANGE

NO CHANGE

50 – 0 – 50

NO CHANGE

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







29

40 – 20 – 40

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

NO CHANGE

NO CHANGE

50 – 0 – 50

NO CHANGEGroup 1

NO CHANGE

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







30

40 – 20 – 40

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

NO CHANGE

NO CHANGE

50 – 0 – 50

NO CHANGEGroup 1

Group 2

NO CHANGE

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







NO CHANGE

31

40 – 20 – 40

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

NO CHANGE

NO CHANGE

50 – 0 – 50

NO CHANGEGroup 1

Group 2

Group 3

NO CHANGE

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







NO CHANGE

NO CHANGE

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV







32

Sensitivity analysis: forestry


b) incorporating uncertainty

33

Q - 25

Group 1 Group 2

NO CHANGE

Group 3

NO CHANGE NO CHANGE

Median Q25 Q75

Pest Ranking Ranking Change Ranking Change

Anaplophora glabripennis 1 1 = 1 =

AgrilusAnxius (Bronze birch borer) 2 2 = 2 =

Dendrolimus sibiricus 3 3 = 4 -1

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Pine wood nematode) 4 5 -1 3 1

Agrilus planipennis (Emerald ash borer) 5 4 1 5 =

Ceratocystis fagacearum (Oak wilt) 6 6 = 6 =

34

Q - 25

Group 1 Group 2

NO CHANGE

Group 3

NO CHANGE NO CHANGE

Q - 75

Group 1 Group 2

NO CHANGE

Group 3

B.x. in / D.s. out B.x. out / D.s. in

Median Q25 Q75

Pest Ranking Ranking Change Ranking Change

Anaplophora glabripennis 1 1 = 1 =

AgrilusAnxius (Bronze birch borer) 2 2 = 2 =

Dendrolimus sibiricus 3 3 = 4 -1

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Pine wood nematode) 4 5 -1 3 1

Agrilus planipennis (Emerald ash borer) 5 4 1 5 =

Ceratocystis fagacearum (Oak wilt) 6 6 = 6 =

35

I2P2 Agroforestry

36

RANKING

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV

Anoplophora chinensis (citrus long-horned beetle) 1 0.7477 1 1 1

Aromia bungii (Redneck longhorned beetle) 2 0.2731 2 2 2

37

Sensitivity analysis: agroforestry

38

If ranked

with cropsI2P2 ECO SOC ENV

















Thrips palmi 17 0.1529 20 9 16




39

If ranked

with forestry

I2P2 ECO SOC ENV









Thanks for your attention

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