agenda - aqmd.gov

SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL & MODELING PEER REVIEW (STMPR) ADVISORY GROUP

Thursday, November 4, 2021 ■ 2:30 pm

Pursuant to Assembly Bill 361, the STMPR Advisory Group meeting will only be conducted via video conferencing and by telephone. Please follow the instructions below to join the meeting remotely.

ELECTRONIC PARTICIPATION INFORMATION (Instructions provided at bottom of the agenda)

Join Zoom Meeting - from PC, Laptop or Phone https://scaqmd.zoom.us/j/92837087356

Meeting ID: 928-3708-7356 (applies to all) Teleconference Dial In +1 669 900 6833

Audience will be allowed to provide public comments through telephone or Zoom connection.

In addition, a webcast is available for viewing and listening at: https://aqmd.gov/home/news-events/webcast

AGENDA Members of the public may address this body concerning any agenda item before or during consideration of that item (Gov’t. Code Section 54854.3(a)). Please notify South Coast AQMD staff of your desire to speak. All agendas for regular meetings are posted at South Coast AQMD Headquarters, 21865 Copley Drive, Diamond Bar, California, at least 72 hours in advance of the regular meeting. Speakers may be limited to three (3) minutes each.

1. Welcome and Introduction Ian MacMillan Assistant Deputy Executive Officer

2. Spatial and Temporal Allocation of Emissions from On-Road Mobile,Ocean Going Vessels and AircraftStaff will present allocation factors to distribute emissions from on-road mobile,ocean going vessels and aircraft in spatial and temporal domains.

Eric Praske, Ph.D. Air Quality Specialist

3. Ozone Isopleths and Preliminary Carrying Capacity EstimatesStaff will present ozone isopleths and preliminary carrying capacity estimated forattainment of the 2015 70ppb ozone NAAQS.

Sang-Mi Lee, Ph.D. Program Supervisor

Scientific, Technical & Modeling Peer Review Advisory Group 1 November 4, 2021

https://scaqmd.zoom.us/j/92837087356

https://scaqmd.zoom.us/j/92837087356

https://aqmd.gov/home/news-events/webcast

https://aqmd.gov/home/news-events/webcast

4. South Coast AQMD Socioeconomic Impact Assessments and Scope of2022 AQMP Socioeconomic ReportStaff will present the history and background of South Coast AQMD’s SocioeconomicImpact Assessments, the proposed scope and content of the 2022 AQMPSocioeconomic Report, and the anticipated timeline for AQMP development.

Ryan Finseth, Ph.D. Air Quality Specialist Paul Stroik, Ph.D. Air Quality Specialist Shah Dabirian, Ph.D. Program Supervisor

5. Other BusinessAny member of the Advisory Group, or its alternate, on his or her own initiative or inresponse to questions posed by the public, may ask a question for clarification, maymake a brief announcement or report on his or her own activities, provide a referenceto staff regarding factual information, request staff to report back at a subsequentmeeting concerning any matter, or may take action to direct staff to place a matter ofbusiness on a future agenda (Govt. Code Section 54954.2).

Advisory Group Members

6. Public CommentMembers of the public may address the Advisory Group concerning any agenda itembefore or during consideration of that item (Govt. Code Section 54954.3). All agendasfor regular meetings are posted at South Coast AQMD Headquarters, 21865 CopleyDrive, Diamond Bar, California, at least 72 hours in advance of a regular meeting.At the end of the regular meeting agenda, an opportunity is also provided for thepublic to speak on any subject within the Advisory Group’s authority. Speakers maybe limited to three (3) minutes each.

Members of the Public

7. Next Meeting –First Quarter 2022

Document Availability All documents (i) constituting non-exempt public records, (ii) relating to an item on an agenda for a regular meeting, and (iii) having been distributed to at least a majority of the Advisory Group after the agenda is posted, are available at SouthCoast AQMD’s AQMP webpage: http://www.aqmd.gov/home/air-quality/clean-air-plans/air-quality-mgt-plan

Americans with Disabilities Act and Language Accessibility Disability and language-related accommodations can be requested to allow participation in the Advisory Group meeting. The agenda will be made available, upon request, in appropriate alternative formats to assist persons with a disability (Gov’t Code Section 54954.2(a)). In addition, other documents may be requested in alternative formats and languages. Any disability or language-related accommodation must be requested as soon as practicable. Requests will be accommodated unless providing the accommodation would result in a fundamental alteration or undue burden to the District. Please contact Zorik Pirveysian, Planning and Rules Manager, at (909) 396-2431 from 7:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m., Tuesday through Friday, or send the request to [email protected].

South Coast Air Quality Management District ● 21865 Copley Drive, Diamond Bar, CA 91765-4182 ● www.aqmd.gov

INSTRUCTIONS FOR ELECTRONIC PARTICIPATION

The public may provide comments during the meeting following the directions below. Once you raise your hand to provide a comment, you will be added to the speaker list and your name will be called when it is your turn to comment. The host will then unmute your line. Directions for Video ZOOM on a DESKTOP/LAPTOP or a SMARTPHONE:

• If you would like to make a comment, please click on the “Participants” button on the bottom of the screen.• On a DESKTOP/LAPTOP: A list of participants will appear on the right side of the screen. At the bottom of the list,

please click on the grey “Raise Hand” button.• On a SMARTPHONE: A new screen will pop up with the list of participants. Look for the “Raise Hand” button on

the screen and click the button.• This will signal to the host that you would like to provide a comment and you will be added to the list.

Directions for TELEPHONE line only:


mailto:[email protected]

http://www.aqmd.gov/

• If you would like to make a comment, please dial *9 on your keypad to signal that you would like to comment.


Spatial and Temporal Allocation of Emissions from On-Road Mobile, Ocean Going Vessels

and Aircraft

STMPR meeting on Nov. 4, 2021

Eric Praske, Ph.D. Air Quality Specialist

South Coast Air Quality Management District

Item #2

Item 2

Spatial Surrogates to Allocate Emissions

2


Improvements using Satellite and Sensor Data

• Heavy and light duty vehicles– California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)

Performance Measurement System (PeMS)• Ocean-Going Vessels (OGV)

– Automated Identification System (AIS) as provided byMarine Cadastre

• Aircraft– Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System

(ACARS) as provided by NOAA MADIS

3

All data were processed for 2018

On-Road Emissions Allocation for the 2022 AQMP• Based on hourly sensor data• Light and Medium duty vehicles

– Same method used in MATES V– California Department of Transportation

Performance Measurement System(Caltrans PeMS)

– > 9000 single loop detectors in SCAB• Heavy duty vehicles

– New to the 2022 AQMP– 2016 AQMP approach used Weight in Motion

(WIM) sensors• Data was too sparse to use in modeling in 2018 due to

offline sensors• Only about 20 sensors across the Basin

– As an alternative to WIM, HD flows can be estimatedusing single loop detectors

• Although specificity is lower, coverage is much greater• Kwon et al. algorithm has been validated and is

implemented on PeMS1

41 Kwon et al. Transportation Research Record. 2003; https://doi.org/10.3141/1856-11


Caltrans PeMS for Light Duty Vehicles

• Light duty flows follow rush hour pattern during the week,smoother pattern with mid-afternoon peak on weekends

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Caltrans PeMS for Heavy Duty Vehicles

• Reduced flow on weekends and holidays• Flows do not follow rush hour pattern observed in light duty

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Ocean Going Vessel Positioning Data

• New approach developed for 2022 AQMP• AIS transponders communicate speed, position, and operational

mode for maritime safety• Data from Marine Cadastre is downloaded, processed, and

allocated to the modeling domain

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Vessel Types Operational ModesCargo (all types)MilitaryPassengerTanker

TransitAnchorageManeuveringHotelling

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Spatial Allocation of Ocean Going Vessel Emissions

• Emissions highest along major shipping channels, but AIS dataalso resolves emissions from less traveled routes

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Aircraft Emissions

• New approach developed for 2022 AQMP• Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is Federal Aviation

Administration’s official model to estimate aircraft emissions• AEDT segregates emissions into 4 vertical layers:

– Ground level: Auxiliary Power Unit + Climb/Descend emissions– Below 1,000 feet– Below Mixing Height– Below 10,000 feet

• ACARS data contain coordinates/altitude and are used as spatialsurrogate

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-118.6 -118.5 -118.4 -118.3 -118.2 -118.1Longitude (°)

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Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS)

• Raw ACARS pings at LAX with cutoff applied at mixed layerheight (~550 m)

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3-Dimensional Aircraft Emission Allocation Factors

• ACARS spatial surrogates at LAX by vertical layer– Sum of ACARS pings within each grid cell are normalized to the sum

of all pings within the layer

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Aircraft Emissions for Smaller Airports

• CARB’s Gridded Aircraft Trajectory Emissions (GATE) is used toallocate emissions at small GA airports– Computes 3D trajectory of aircraft during landing and takeoff– Computes intersection with modeling grid

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Intersection of LAX flight trajectories with a modeling gridSource: https://github.com/mmb-carb/GATE_Documentation/blob/master/docs/SCIENCE_GUIDE.md


CMAQ-ready Aircraft Emissions

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• Subtract AEDTemissions from input

• Run GATE for SCdomain

GATE

• Aggregate all ACARSpings by ORIG/DESTairport

• Normalize by verticallayer

ACARS • Apply ACARS spatial,GATE temporalallocation

• Add AEDT emissionsto GATE output

Final

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Vertical Allocation of Aircraft Emissions

• Below, emissions within each layer normalized to layer thickness (thickerlayers aloft)

• Original method (point/inline) does not have any ground level emissions– Highest single-layer emission rate at ground level, consistent with AEDT

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Los Angeles International Airport


Summary and Conclusion

• Improved spatial and temporal accuracy of emissions inventory withsensor and transponder-based data

• Perturbation to mean top 10 days MDA8 O3 was highest for aircraft– Primarily due to much greater emissions in layer 1 compared to default

• Change in ozone reflects sensitivity toward each change compared to the2016 AQMP methods

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Ozone Isopleths and Preliminary Carrying Capacity Estimates

Item #3

Scientific, Technical & Modeling Peer Review (STMPR)Advisory Group Meeting

November 4, 2021

1

Item 3


WRF-CMAQ-SMOKE Modeling System

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v4.0.3– North American Region Re-analysis with The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature

(GHRSST) updates– Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer and Unified Noah Land Surface Model schemes– Nested modeling with three domains - 36, 12 and 4 km grid spacing

Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) v5.2.1– Chemical mechanism: State Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) SAPRC07tc– Aerosol mechanism: “aero6”– Point sources using inline modeling– Two nested domains 12 km and 4 km

Sparse-Matrix Operational Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) v4.8 used to generate gridded emissions ofanthropogenic emissions (except for on-road sources and aircraft)

2

WRF-CMAQ-SMOKE Modeling System (Cont’d)

EMFAC2017 with travel activity data fromthe SCAG’s 2020 Regional TransportationPlanOzone Simulation– 2018 May 1 to September 30, 2018

PM2.5 simulation– 2018 January 1 to December 31, 2018

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Development of Ozone Isopleths

CMAQ nested domains– 12 km including the entire California and portions of neighboring states and northern Mexico– 4km is the AQMP analysis domain

Basin total anthropogenic VOC and NOx emissions used as x and y axis, respectivelySimulations were conducted with NOx and VOC emissions in 50 tons per day (tpd) increments withMatLab spatial interpolation function– Emission reductions were assumed to occur equally in the entire modeling domain

Preliminary basin total summer planning emissionsYear VOC (tpd) NOx (tpd)2018 417 3472037 389 220

Ozone Isopleths – Inland San Bernardino

Crestline San Bernardino

• Upper right corner represents 2018 condition• Blue dot represents 2037 business-as-usual (BAU)


Ozone Isopleths – Western Basin

Pasadena Central Los Angeles

Ozone Isopleths – Foothill Area

Glendora Azusa


Ozone Isopleths – Coachella Valley

Palm Springs Indio

2022 Air Quality Management Plan

2022 AQMP focuses on attaining the 70 ppb 8-hour ozone National

Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS)

– South Coast Air Basin’s (SCAB) attainment due – 2037

– Coachella Valley’s attainment due – 2032

Preliminary baseline NOx emissions in SCAB in 2037 are 224 tpd

Preliminary NOx carrying capacity* in SCAB in 2037 is 60 – 70 tpd

*Carrying capacity is the maximum allowable emissions to attain NAAQS


Factors Influencing Carrying Capacity

• Transport from the central valley and Mexico

Lateral boundary values

• Kern, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Diego

Controls in adjacent air basins

• Final attainment scenario relies on control factors developed forindividual source category

Category specific vs. across-the-board reductions

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Azusa Crestline Fontana Glendora Indio Palm Springs Pasadena Pomona Redlands Reseda Rubidoux SanBernardino

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2037 RRF adjusted Design Value

2037 baseline 70% reductions from the baseline 70% reductions with cleaner boundary

Lateral Boundary Values

With approximately 70% reductions beyond the baseline condition, the 2037 DesignValue (DV) is reduced by 17 ppb at Glendora– If all of CA, neighboring states and Mexico reduced emissions by 70% beyond future baseline

conditions, the 2037 DV will be reduced by up to another 7 ppb

*RRF is Relative Response Factor defined as the ratio of model predictions for future to base year


Controls in Adjacent Air Basins

The same level of controls in adjacent air basins can lower the DV by up to 5 ppb

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2037 RRF adjusted Design Vaule

2037 baseline 70% NOx reductions for SCAB 70% reductions for the entire modeling domain

* Emissions inventory and lateral boundary values used in the simulations shown in the previous and this slides are different

Summary and Preliminary Carrying Capacity

Transport from neighboring air basins/states/countries significantlyaffects attaining the NAAQS in South CoastOzone responds to emission reductions differently, depending onthe source of emissions– Final attainment scenario relies on control profiles specified for individual

source categoryGlendora and San Bernardino are expected to have the highestozone level in the future attainment yearPreliminary carrying capacity is expected to be in the range of 60-70 tons of NOx

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Socioeconomic Analysis UnitRyan Finseth, Ph.D.Paul Stroik, Ph.D.

Brian VlasichShah Dabirian, Ph.D.

South Coast Air Quality Management District2022 Air Quality Management Plan

Science, Technical, and Modeling Peer Review Advisory Group Socioeconomic Analysis Meeting #1

November 4, 2021

South Coast AQMD Socioeconomic Impact Assessment and Scope of 2022 AQMP Socioeconomic Report

Item 4

2

South Coast AQMD Socioeconomic Team


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Air Quality Management PlanAQMP: Plan to attain NationalAmbient Air Quality Standards

Ozone: Extreme nonattainment for1997, 2008, and 2015 8-hour ozonestandards, and 1979 1-hour ozonestandard*PM2.5: Serious nonattainment for2006 24-hour and 2012 annualPM2.5 standards (2020 dataindicates South Coast Air Basin met24-hour standard – redesignationrequest pending)

2022 AQMP: Focuses on attaining2015 8-hour ozone standard by 2037

AQMP Socioeconomic Report quantifies:Incremental costs and/or savings of AQMPcontrol measuresRegional benefits from air-qualityimprovements (reduced ozone and PM2.5)Regional macroeconomic impacts (e.g.jobs) from associated costs and benefits

* 1979 1-hour ozone standard has been revoked.

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Socioeconomic Analysis Evolution (1/3)

MIT AuditMIT Audit

Range of Control Cost


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Abt Audit

6



7

AQMP Socioeconomic Analysis

Environmental justice of health risk distribution

Incremental costs of

pollution control measures

Public health & welfare benefits of

clean air

Jobs and other macroeconomic impacts of AQMP

implementation

Emission reduction for

NAAQS attainment

Cost-effectiveness of each control

measure

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AQMP Socioeconomic Report Chapters

Executive SummaryChapter 1: IntroductionChapter 2: Control Measures Compliance CostChapter 3: Public Health and Other BenefitsChapter 4: Jobs and Other Macroeconomics ImpactsChapter 5: Sub-Regional Distribution of ImpactsChapter 6: Environmental JusticeChapter 7: CEQA Alternatives


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Ch. 1: IntroductionHistorical regional air quality and economyAir quality attainment challengesHealth effects of air pollutionEconomic outlook of potentially affected industries

Covid-19 impacts Baseline of 2022 AQMP socioeconomic analysisEvolution of South Coast AQMD socioeconomic analysis

2016 AQMP Socioeconomic Report charts

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Ch. 2: Control Measures Compliance CostCompliance costs:

Compiled by South Coast AQMD staffCapital, operating and maintenance, and administrative costs/savings through timeIncremental (i.e., relative to the baseline costs)Expressed in present value and constant dollars

Estimated costs by:Control measureSource and jurisdiction

South Coast AQMD stationary/mobile sources, and CARB mobile sourcesAffected industry sectorsSmall businesses (if data available)

Cost effectiveness by control measure (using both discounted and levelized cash flow analysis)


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Ch. 3: Public Health and Other Benefits

Main tool: U.S. EPA’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition (BenMAP-CE)

In-house estimates of pollutant concentration changesConcentration-response functions and health benefit valuation review to be updated if applicable

Qualitative discussion of visibility, material, and agriculture benefits

Due to uncertain confidence in underlying modeling and/or outdated literature

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Ch. 4 & 5: Macroeconomics ImpactsMain tool: REMI Policy Insight Plus model

Aggregate and sub-regional macroeconomic impactsSEI module allows for impacts by gender and race

Job impacts from incremental compliance costs and public health benefits

Increased cost of doing businessIncreased demand for low-to-zero emission technologies and pollution control equipmentReduced healthcare spending and increased worker productivity Increased regional labor pool due to better amenity of clean air

Job impact and sectoral distributionCompetitiveness impacts by industry sector

Cost of production (for those who cannot pass through costs)Delivery prices (for those who can pass through costs)

2016 AQMP Socioeconomic Report charts


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Ch. 6: Environmental Justice Analysis

Environmental justice community screening and designationTo be based off CalEnviroScreen 4.0

Each community is a census tract2016 AQMP SIA explored several variations of CalEnviroScreen:

All included poverty status, toxic cancer risk, and PM2.5 and ozone airquality indicatorsVariations included demographic (e.g. age, education, unemployment, etc.) and non-air related environmental indicators (e.g. drinking water, pesticides, toxic releases, etc.)

Distributional analysisQuantified health benefits and valuation: EJ and non-EJ areas2016 AQMP SIA also included distributional analysis using inequality indices

Inter- and intra-area changes in health risk inequalityConcerns about accessibility to the publicSeek STMPR input whether to retain for 2022 AQMP

Environmental justice discussion and analysis will also be explicitly folded into every

chapter of the AQMP document

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Ch. 7: CEQA Alternatives

California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) requires analysis of range of alternatives to AQMP sufficient to permit a reasoned choice among proposed and alternative approachesDescriptions of each alternative

List of control measures included in eachCompliance costs/savings and job impacts by alternative


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Preliminary AQMP and Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Timeline

March, 2022Release Preliminary Draft Socioeconomic Report

January, 2022Release Draft AQMP

April, 2022Release Revised Draft AQMP

May, 2022Release Draft Socioeconomic Report 60-day

July, 2022Release Final Socioeconomic Report 30-day

June, 2022Release Draft Final AQMP

November, 2021Draft AQMP Control Measures

August, 2022Board Hearing

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

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Contact Us

Socioeconomics Unit

• Ryan Finseth, Ph.D., Air Quality Specialist [email protected] 909.396.3575

• Paul Stroik, Ph.D., Air Quality Specialist [email protected] 909.396.2851

• Brian Vlasich, Air Quality [email protected] 909.396.2176

• Shah Dabirian, Ph.D., Program Supervisor [email protected] 909.396.3076

• Elaine Shen, Ph.D., Acting Manager [email protected] 909.396.2715

General AQMP Inquiries

• Kalam Cheung, Ph.D., Program Supervisor [email protected] 909.396.3281

• Ian MacMillan, Assistant Deputy Executive Officer, Planning & Rule Development [email protected] 909.396.3244


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How to Raise Your Hand to Speak

ZOOM: Click on the “Raise Hand” button at the bottom of your screen.

TELECONFERENCE: Dial *9 to “raise your hand”

Your name will be called when it is your turn to speak and the meeting host will unmute your line.

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