ageing workforce?. “likely to cause” … …a difference of opinion? howard watson
TRANSCRIPT
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Ageing workforce?
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“Likely to cause” …
…a difference of opinion?
Howard Watson
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Stating the obvious?
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History
• 1994 Railtrack Safety & Standards Directorate• 2001 Hatfield accident – RSSB formed• RSSB controlled by railway stakeholders• Many Railway Group Standards• Strategy for standards management– Devolve– Concentrate on “interfaces”
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BR Medical Standards
Drivers
Train Working
Signallers
Personal Track Safety
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Current medical standard
Train Movement
Code of practice & Guidance
Signallers & PTS devolved to Network Rail
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General health requirement
• Unchanged• No medical condition “likely to cause…”• Non-prescriptive• Future-proof• Allow evolution of guidance• Problems– Fragmented OH– Risk averse culture
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Acceptable risk for the railway?
• CAA 1%• DVLA – Group 1 20%– Group 2 2%
• RSSB research project T663– “Managing the risk associated with incapacity in
safety critical occupations”
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T663
• Consultations• UK data• International and intermodal comparisons• Event tree analysis
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Event tree
• Onset of unavoidable impairment• Engaged in safety critical task• Engineering controls unable to prevent • Hazardous event• Fatality/weighted injury
• Current rate of FWI
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Assumptions
• Fatality / weighted injury (FWI)– Tolerated = tolerable?
• RSSB risk model: 125 types of hazardous event– Not all have human precursor– Probability of FWI estimated
• Human Error v medial impairment– 2% due to medical impairment
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Results
• Driver – 43%• Signaller 16%• Track worker 15%• Crossing keeper 4%• PICOP 0.4%
• Acceptable risk to system safety only
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Implications for train driving
• “F1: FIT NORMAL DUTIES”
• 43% annual risk of incapacity?– 68% chance of an event in 2 years– 94% chance of an event within 5 years?
• Would a TOC be happy?
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Train driver:additional considerations for employer• Safety of the driver - lone worker• Service interruption– Safety of passengers and other staff– Compensation to customers– Reputational damage to TOC
• Network disruption– Delay penalties– Reputational damage to Rail
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Inquiry begins into train ordeal
Train company GNER has launched an inquiry into how hundreds of passengers became stranded for hours in stifling heat due to a power failure.Some travellers broke carriage windows to escape temperatures of over 37C on its 1555 BST Newcastle to London Kings Cross service on Thursday evening.
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Acceptable risk to TOC?
• Likelihood of event in 5 years– “unlikely” (<50%)?– 5% (CAA)?– In between?
• TOC view?• “UK rail” view?– Mutual interest?
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Australian Standards
New draft 2011Category 1 SCW
5 yr risk >25% – unfit<5% - fit5-24% risk assessment (split at 10%)
“Fit subject to review”
UK DVLA5 year risks:Group I – 66%Group II – 9%
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Suggestion
Fails group I – unfit.
Meets group II – fit’
In between = risk assessment• OH: risk of relevant impairment; suggested controls• Operator: ?safe system of work • Fit with limitations
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ANY CASES?
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Case
• Freight Train Driver, 4 months post MI– Well– Inferior infarct – 2 vessels stented – Moderate LV impairment – No ETT– Diabetic type 2– Probably still smoking
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Relevant requirements
DVLA II– 6/52 post-MI– Exercise test– Repeat 3 yearly
Australia– 4/52 post-MI– Exercise test– Repeat 2 yearly
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Consensus?
• Fitness category?• Further information?• Drive meantime?• Future management?– Review frequency?
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Discussion and other cases?