after the gold rush? - costaruk.costar.co.uk › investment › pdfs ›...
TRANSCRIPT
Investment Review 2015
1
Another bumper year of investment, but sharp slowdown in H2 suggests a more challenging 2016
UK Commercial Property Investment Review 2015
After The Gold Rush?
##THIS IS A SUMMARY OF THE
2015 INVESTMENT REVIEW
THE FULL VERSION IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO COSTAR SUITE CLIENTS.
please contact us on 020 3205 4500 or email
CoStar Group
2
Table of Contents
within this report. The publisher cannot accept liability for any loss/damage which may arise as a result of any error or omission of any data. Any data reproduced from this analysis must be accredited to CoStar.
Overview ........................................................................ 3
Major Events .................................................................. 4
Key Investment Deals in 2015 ........................................... 8
2015 Data Highlights ....................................................... 9
.................................... 10
Regional Renaissance Continued in 2015 .......................... 11
Overseas Investors Find Value Outside London ................. 12
Pace of Yield Compression Slowed in 2015 ........................ 13
2015 in Review: Key Themes & Drivers ...................................14
2016 Outlook: After the Gold Rush - What Next?..................18
Agent League Tables: Q4 2015 .......................................... 20
Agent League Tables: 2015 Annual .................................... 22
Data, Analytics & News Have Come Together .................. 27
Get in Touch with CoStar ................................................ 28
##THIS IS A SUMMARY OF THE
2015 INVESTMENT REVIEW
THE FULL VERSION IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO COSTAR SUITE CLIENTS.
please contact us on 020 3205 4500 or email
Investment Review 2015
3
Key Figures
£67.5bninvested in UK commercial property in 2015
from 2014
£32.7bn
32%
invested in the second half of the year
rise in North East investmentThe highest increase of any region
spent on hotels and student accommodation
£9.8bn
rise in investment from the Far East
a drop of 19% Y-o-Y
up 77% on 2014
Overview
How was 2015 for you? According to our data it was probably a good year to be an investor, lender, broker or developer of real estate. Total CRE investment was a buoyant £67.5bn. This made it the second strongest year on record and 46% above the 10-year average.
Unsurprisingly London, probably the largest and most liquid CRE market in the world, acted as a magnet for global investment. However, total investment in London was lower than in 2014, re�ecting increasingly tight yields and buyers and sellers being unable to agree prices on several big deals towards the end of the year.
It was investment activity in the UK’s Big Six and other regional cities which caught the eye in 2015. O�ce investment in the Big Six regional cities increased 16% to £3.2bn, more than double the eight-year average, with foreign investors an increasing presence outside of London. Overall foreign investment into the UK totalled a record £27.8bn in 2015, a 6% increase Y-o-Y.
Demand for ‘alternative’ assets such as hotels and student accommodation rose strongly in 2015. Although o�ce remained the most dominant sector overall, investment into all three main CRE types—o�ces, retail, and industrial—declined. Retail in particular remains highly polarised between the best and the rest.
Despite the big headline investment number, our data revealed a marked loss of momentum in the second half of the year, with investment down 19% compared to H2 2014. There are a number of probable explanations, not least the fact that the very high levels of activity in London was always going to be hard to maintain in the face of racy pricing. However, increasing global economic and political uncertainty is probably impacting investment. This begs the questions: will recent stock market volatility, worries about China’s economy, weak commodity prices, and uncertainty about the UK’s place in the EU mean that investment will ebb in 2016? Or will the UK’s size, liquidity and relatively strong economic and occupier fundamentals continue to pull in vast levels of footloose global capital? Whatever the outcome, 2016 is set to be a very interesting year.
down 5%
62%
A combined
Richard Yorke Director of Analytics
CoStar Group
20
To �nd out more about CoStar Propex visit www.costar.co.uk/products/propex
Q4 2015 League Tables: Investment Agents
Rank Q4 2015
(Q3 2015)
Vendor Agent Value £m
1 (1) JLL 2,514 2 (4) Eastdil Secured 1,866 3 (7) Cushman & Wake�eld 1,736 4 (2) CBRE 1,666 5 (5) Savills 1,632 6 (3) Knight Frank 1,073 7 (8) GM Real Estate 793 8 (10) Allsop 645 9 (6) Colliers International 619 10 (-) Lambert Smith Hampton 332 11 (15) Michael Elliott 325 12 (-) Bil�nger GVA 298 13 (9) Strutt & Parker 246 14 (-) BNP Paribas Real Estate UK 244 15 (-) Tudor Toone 194
Investment Agents - Vendor
Rank Q4 2015
(Q3 2015)
Acquisition Agent Value £m
1 (2) JLL 1,1412 (5) Cushman & Wake�eld 1,1203 (4) Savills 9434 (10) Knight Frank 8585 (11) Colliers International 7336 (1) CBRE 6627 (13) GM Real Estate 5008 (9) Capital Real Estate Partners 4789 (15) Allsop 43510 (-) Gerald Eve 38811 (-) Deloitte Real Estate 32512 (-) Lunson Mitchenall 28813 (8) Morgan Williams 24214 (-) Lambert Smith Hampton 23715 (6) Strutt & Parker 214
Investment Agents - Acquisition
Source: CoStar Group Source: CoStar Group
There is something in the water at JLL in the fourth quarter of the year it seems. It was a bumper Q4 sales-wise in 2015, as it was in 2014, with the agent this time around advising on £2.5bn of disposals, signi�cantly ahead of Eastdil Secured, Cushman & Wake�eld and CBRE, who occupied the remaining top four spots. And JLL was at it again in the acquisitions charts, chalking up top spot with £1.1bn of advisory work, this
time just pipping Cushman & Wake�eld, Savills and Knight Frank at the top of the table. A special mention must go to Cushman & Wake�eld, which really pushed up the tables following its merger with DTZ.
N.B. DTZ and Cushman & Wake�eld merged on 1st September. All deals completed by the legacy DTZ business between 1st October – 31st December are included for Cushman & Wake�eld.
CoStar Group
80% of Q4 2015’s top 15 Acquisition agents* subscribe to Propex. 80% of Q4 2015’s top 15 Vendor agents* subscribe to Propex.
*Includes single and multi-branch agencies
Investment Review 2015
21
Q4 2015 League Tables: Single Branch Agents
Rank Q4 2015
(Q3 2015)
Vendor Agent Value £m
1 (1) Eastdil Secured 1,8662 (2) GM Real Estate 7933 (5) Michael Elliott 3254 (6) Tudor Toone 1945 (-) Dowley Turner Real Estate 1316 (9) Morgan Williams 1297 (-) Kitchen La Frenais Morgan 1268 (7) Wilkinson Williams 1159 (-) CWM 10310 (-) Whitmarsh Holt Young 9711 (-) Capital Real Estate Partners 93
=12 (4) Levy Real Estate 70=12 (-) Hall Kemp 7014 (-) Crossland Otter Hunt 5715 (-) Gavin Black & Partners 45
Single Branch Agents - Vendor
Rank Q4 2015
(Q3 2015)
Acquisition Agent Value £m
1 (3) GM Real Estate 5002 (2) Capital Real Estate Partners 4783 (11) Lunson Mitchenall 2884 (-) Morgan Williams 2425 (-) Lewis Ellis 2136 (-) CWM 1857 (-) Harper Dennis Hobbs 1718 (-) Hall Kemp 1709 (4) Michael Elliott 16410 (7) Dowley Turner Real Estate 14211 (-) Wilkinson Williams 12012 (-) Joiner Cummings 9813 (-) GCW 9514 (-) Sheridan Property Consultants 8415 (-) WHR Property Consultants 83
Single Branch Agents - Acquisition
Source: CoStar Group Source: CoStar Group
Single branch wise there were spectacular performances in Q4 again, with GM Real Estate the standout, advising on a combined £1.29bn of deals to take the number two spot for sales and number one spot for acquisitions. Other
stellar performances came from Michael Elliott, Tudor Toone, Dowley Turner Real Estate, Lunson Mitchenall and Morgan Williams.
Investment Review 2015
To �nd out more about CoStar Propex visit www.costar.co.uk/products/propex
CoStar Group
22
2015 Annual League Tables: Single Branch Agents2015 Annual League Tables: Investment Agents
Rank 2015 (2014)
Vendor Agent Value £m
1 (2) CBRE 9,0422 (1) JLL 8,9933 (3) Savills 5,0494 (5) Knight Frank 4,6885 (11) Eastdil Secured 4,5616 (9) Cushman & Wake�eld 2,8807 (8) Colliers International 2,5598 (4) GM Real Estate 1,9309 (14) Allsop 1,16410 (13) Bil�nger GVA 1,09911 (12) Strutt & Parker 1,08012 (-) Michael Elliott 97813 (6) DTZ 92214 (-) Morgan Williams 77415 (15) BNP Paribas Real Estate UK 725
Investment Agents - Vendor
Rank 2015 (2014)
Acquisition Agent Value £m
1 (3) JLL 4,7112 (1) CBRE 4,3293 (2) Savills 3,7764 (5) Cushman & Wake�eld 3,3345 (6) Knight Frank 3,1496 (8) Colliers International 2,4367 (7) Strutt & Parker 1,9568 (4) DTZ 1,4799 (-) Morgan Williams 1,45510 (9) BNP Paribas Real Estate UK 1,42211 (10) GM Real Estate 1,31112 (-) Doherty Baines 1,13713 (-) Michael Elliott 1,02814 (-) Allsop 1,00815 (-) Capital Real Estate Partners 884
Investment Agents - Acquisition
Source: CoStar Group Source: CoStar Group
Over the course of the whole year the big two jostled for the top spots. CBRE won the title for sales, advising on a spectacular £9bn with standout deals including the sale of the Bath Road campus in Slough for Segro right at the end of the year. JLL was top dog for acquisitions, advising on £4.71bn aided by its roles on major deals such as the acquisition of 22 Bishopsgate for Temasek/AXA for £300m and the acquisition of MediaCity UK in Salford for Legal & General for £251.5m.
Savills took the third spot for both sales and acquisitions, while Knight Frank, Colliers International, Strutt & Parker and Allsop will be among those feeling highly pleased with last year’s e³orts.
N.B. DTZ and Cushman & Wake�eld merged on 1st September. DTZ’s �gures in the tables below re�ect deals completed by the business up until this date. Any deals completed from 1st September – 31st December are included for Cushman & Wake�eld.
CoStar Group
80% of 2015’s top 15 Acquisition agents* subscribe to Propex. 80% of 2015’s top 15 Vendor agents* subscribe to Propex.
*Includes single and multi-branch agencies
To �nd out more about CoStar Propex visit www.costar.co.uk/products/propex
Investment Review 2015
23
2015 Annual League Tables: Single Branch Agents
Rank 2015 (2014)
Vendor Agent Value £m
1 (3) Eastdil Secured 4,5612 (1) GM Real Estate 1,9303 (7) Michael Elliott 9784 (4) Morgan Williams 7745 (6) Tudor Toone 6926 (2) Capital Real Estate Partners 5067 (5) Dowley Turner Real Estate 3418 (-) Harvey Spack Field 3359 (-) Wilkinson Williams 33310 (-) Cortex Partners 26411 (-) Kitchen La Frenais Morgan 26112 (8) Doherty Baines 23313 (-) Kieran D. Cotter & Co 23114 (-) Levy Real Estate 23115 (-) Fineman Ross 203
Single Branch Agents - Vendor
Rank 2015 (2014)
Acquisition Agent Value £m
1 (10) Morgan Williams 1,4552 (1) GM Real Estate 1,3113 (15) Doherty Baines 1,1374 (7) Michael Elliott 1,0285 (-) Capital Real Estate Partners 8846 (5) Dowley Turner Real Estate 7827 (4) Tudor Toone 6398 (2) Lunson Mitchenall 6039 (-) CWM 48310 (-) Everton Phillips 41311 (6) Lewis Ellis 35912 (-) Coady Supple 34913 (-) Fawcett Mead 28914 (8) Wilkinson Williams 22915 (-) Joiner Cummings 209
Single Branch Agents - Acquisition
Source: CoStar Group Source: CoStar Group
Among the single branch agents, the superstar performers at Eastdil Securities, GM Real Estate and Michael Elliott once again stood out, but there were tremendous results from
Morgan Williams (�rst for acquisitions and fourth for sales), Tudor Toone, Capital Real Estate Partners, Dowley Turner Real Estate and Doherty Baines, among others.
Investment Review 2015
Watch industry leaders from across the UK discuss the changing dynamic and potential outlook for the Commercial Real Estate Market as we move into 2016
WATCH THE EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWS HEREyoutube.com/CoStarUK
2015 UK CRE INVESTMENT REVIEW
Are you missing something?
• Breakdown of CRE investment by sector and region• Data on capital in�ows by country• A view of yield movements by sector• A special feature on the key themes and drivers during 2015• An outlook for 2016
THE FULL INVESTMENT REVIEW CONTAINS:
The full report is available to CoStar Suite clients only, to nd out how to become a client, contact us on 020 3205 4500 or email [email protected]
Investment Review 2015
25
Always be the �rst to know.
Follow us for real time industry updates and news.
Twitter @costaruk
YouTube CoStar Group UK
LinkedIn CoStar Group UK
Investment Review 2015
3
Access a unique combination of Data, Analytics and News, oering the most comprehensive macro-to-micro explanation of the latest trends in the UK property market.
CoStar’s proprietary data, which underpins this report, is sourced directly from UK property agents, investors and other involved parties to accurately re ect the transactional market in real time.
Typically 850+ investment deals are recorded each quarter, more than any other data source. The Analytics team then overlays top-down analysis of the UK market on this unique dataset, breaking down investment trends by sector, sub-sector, geography, lot size, investor type, and yield.
Finally the News team adds perspective to the analysis by providing timely industry and market updates.
Mark Stans�eld Senior Real Estate Analyst T: 020 3205 4589 E: mstans�[email protected]
Grant LonsdaleReal Estate AnalystT: 0141 354 0646E: [email protected]
James WallaceFinance Editor, CoStar NewsT: 020 3205 4642 E: [email protected]
Iain Smyth Investment Research AssociateT: 0141 354 0629 E: [email protected]
Richard Yorke Director of Analytics T: 020 3205 4670 E: [email protected]
Marianne FitzpatrickReal Estate AnalystT: 0141 354 0822E: m�[email protected]
Paul Norman Editor, CoStar News T: 020 3205 4510 E: [email protected]
Chris JohnsInvestment Research AssociateT: 0141 354 0641E: [email protected]
Data, Analytics and News Have Come Together
Investment Review 2015
CoStar Group
4
Get in Touch with CoStar CoStar Group (Nasdaq: CSGP) is the leading provider of commercial real estate information, analytic and marketing services. Founded in 1987, CoStar conducts expansive on-going research to produce and maintain the largest and most comprehensive database of commercial real estate information.
Our suite of online services enables clients to analyse, interpret and gain unmatched insight on commercial property values, market conditions and current availabilities.
CoStar maintains offices throughout the U.S. and in Europe with a staff of approximately 2,000 worldwide, including the industry’s largest professional research organisation.
CoStar Suite
London020 3205 4500
[email protected] www.costar.co.uk
Glasgow0141 354 0600
Manchester0161 971 2120
Interested in sponsoring future publications?Contact Richard Goff on 020 3205 [email protected] www.costar.co.uk