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After more than a decade of delays, San Francisco appears to be taking concrete steps toward

turning the filled-in sandbar known as Treasure Island into a $1.5 billion condominium community.Residents have been given a deadline to choose replacement apartments in preparation for a

proposed 2013 groundbreaking at adjacent Yerba Buena Island, the first phase of a 8,000-unit mixed-usedevelopment plan. And city officials have signed on to help pave the way for $1.7 billion in potential loansfrom the Chinese government to Lennar Corp., slated to go toward financing developments on Treasure

Island Development, and at the former Hunters Point Naval Shipyard.Yet uncertainty looms. Recent concerns include fears about nuclear waste, a pendingenvironmental lawsuit, uncertainty surrounding the projects financial back ing. The mayor recently cancelledwhat was supposed to be a November trip to China during which he planned to lobby top governmentofficials to approve the loans. Thanks to a recent Chinese transfer of power, the political timing was wrong,Lee told the Bay Citizen.

Last June, the Board of Supervisors approved plans for a 19,000 resident mixed-use communityon the island, for which groundbreaking had previously been scheduled for this year. The date has driftedforward as developers Lennar Corporation and Kenwood Investments have sought financing, and U.S. Navycontractors have been preparing to hand the property off to San Francisco by seeking state regulatoryapproval for an ongoing cleanup up chemical and radioactive waste left over from the islands half-century ofmilitary use.

At millenniums end former base housing was leased to civilian residents, as a stopgap measuremeant to provide income to pay for maintenance of the former base during what was supposed to be a briefpre-development period. Thanks to a years-long toxic and radioactive waste cleanup, political dickering over

the size and shape of proposed development, and a recession that complicated financing, many residentshave lived a dozen years in what was intended to be an ephemeral rental community.

This month, however, seems to mark an end to that era of uncertainty. Beginning Dec. 1, residents of adjacent Yerba Buena Island, where the redevelopment effort has been projected to start some time nextyear, have been given a Dec. 17 deadline to select new temporary housing down on Treasure Island, orprepare to move off the islands altogether.

But some residents are torn about whether they should abandon the islands amid renewedconcerns about radioactive contamination on Treasure Island.

It couldnt be a worse time for residents to have to find new rental housing outside of the island, saidChristopher Montano, a Yerba Buena resident who has two children, ages four and seven.

The Navy released a report in August disclosing a more expansive history of radioactive materialon Treasure Island than had previously been acknowledged. Navy officials say radiation levels are so low asto be of no threat to public health. California Department of Public Health specialists say more studies areneeded. In anticipation of a possible 2013 groundbreaking on the rocky Yerba Buena Islandwhich doesnot have the extensive history of chemical and radioactive contamination afflicting Treasure Island, a Navy

BaseMy alternative now is to take my children down to an area with unknown radiation hazards,

Montano said.Residents fears aside, this months unit selection process is no guarantee groundbreaking will

come this spring, officials said. Notices delivered to residents announcing the selection process advisedhouseholds not to make specific plans anticipating a Treasure Island groundbreaking.

This is not a notice to vacate, the notice warned in bold capital letters. Please do not moveprematurely.

The warning reflects, in part, the fact that developers are still attempting to line up financing for theprojectthey hope with the aid Chinese government lending.

San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee was scheduled to travel in early November to China for a proposedschedule that included meetings with top government officials to discuss $1.7 billion in potential loans fromChina Development Bank to Lennar Corp. for projects at Treasure Island and the former Hunters PointNaval Shipyard. The Financial Timesreported Sept. 26 that the prospect of loans from China loans hadbeen held up due to concerns about effects of U.S. tax law revisions, which could require foreign banks topay a special tax on interest from loans made in the United States.

San Franciscos government is a partner in the Treasure Island redevelopment. And local officialshad hoped to use Mayor Lees Pacific Rim star power as the citys first Asian American mayor to persuadetop Chinese officials to approve the loan. Lee had scheduled a trip to China in early November that includedmeetings to discuss the development loans.

After consulting with the U.S. embassy in China, however, Lee decided in October to cancel thetrip.

Lee told the Bay Citizen that a Chinese transfer of power, in which vice president Xi Jinping hastaken over as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, meant that it would be wiser to allow for anew Chinese administration to settle in before urging major financial decisions.

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Making big decisions on the financing at a time when there was a change in leadership in Chinacould have introduced uncertainty, Lee said in an interview. We just want to be sure were in good standingand hope that the funding remains a priority.

University of San Francisco international business strategy professor Rongxin Chen said Leesdecision was prudent.

I think its a wise move to postpone it until the uncertainty settles down, Chen said.Chen noted that Chinese luxury goods consumption has plummeted in advance of the 18

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Peoples Congress, where the Party selected new leadershipa purported sign of political a uncertainty inthe business community.Gift givers dontknow which officials will leave posts, and where there will be changes, Chen said,

And they dont know whom to give gifts to.Theres no indication the mayors trip involved gift giving.But calling top-level trade meetings amid Chinas November transfer of power would not have been

prudent, said Chen.I do not think the Chinese government will change policy, Chen said. But a lot of people will

nonetheless take this wait and see approach to see if their initiatives are in line with current policy. Another potential Treasure Island development obstacle: an environmental lawsuit, filed by a group

led by former Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, alleging the proposed development did notundergo adequate environmental review.

Among the suitsallegations: the Navy did not account for its history of handling toxic andradioactive waste on the island.

We are confident that our case is solid, and that the court system will recognize the environmental

flaws in the project, Peskin said in an interview.In legal filings and at trial San Francisco attorneys have said the case is without merit.A judge is expected to issue a ruling by mid-December on whether the project requires further

environmental reviewand more potential delays.