After Georgia: Turkey's Looming Foreign Policy Dilemmas
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Analysis WASHINGTON — Turks are ond osaying that they live in a “dange rous neighborhood.” The Russian invasion oGeorgia is a stark reminder othe unsettled nature othe Turk ish geopo- litical scene. By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even iRussian orces withdr aw to negotiated positions, there is everyprospect or a sustained Russian politi- cal and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again ace Russian power directlyon its borders. In the near-term, Turkeywill ace diicult policy choices in reconciling the country’s Russian and Western interests. Even more diicult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Rus- sia looms, and NATO is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture. An Inconvenient Intervention T urkey has lived or centuries with the reality oRussian power. For late Ottoman Turkey , the competition with Russia was a dening strategic chal- lenge, and a key actor shaping relations with Europe. For R epublican T urkeyater 1945, the containment oSoviet power played an equally central role in dening oreign policy priorities, not least the core strategic partnerships with NA TO and the United States. Seen in these terms, the rapid expansion oT urkish-Russian economic and political relations over the last decade seems a striking departure rom historic pat- terns. Have burgeoning energy trade, investment, and tourism replaced geopolitics and the assertion o“hard power” in Russian-T urkish relations? Ater years orapid economic growth and weak security challenges rom across the Black Sea, many T urks have been inclined to think along these post- modern lines. As relations with W ash- ington and Brussels have cooled, some T urkish strateg ists have even begun to consider the possibility oalternative strategic alignments in Eurasia, and above all with Russia. The Georgian crisis will place this emerging Turkish debate in starker relie. The crisis has already posed dicult choices or Ankara. Ater some initial hesitation, Ankara agreed to the pas- sage oAmerican naval vessels through the T urkish Straits or the purpose ohumanitarian relie. W ashington is inclined to chae at T urkey’s cautious and legalistic approach, but this is very much in line with the country’s traditional sovereignty concerns and a commitment to strict interpretation othe regime governing passage through the Straits. The bigger concerns are political and logistical. Against a back- ground omixed European reaction to Russian behavior, Turkish a mbivalence could be a troubling harbinger otrans- After Georgia: Turkey’s Looming Foreign Policy Dilemmas by Dr. Ian O. Lesser * * Dr. Ian O. Lesser is a senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of GMF. Washington, DC• Berlin• Bratislava• ParisBrussels• BelgraDe•ankara• BuCharestwww.gmfus.org Offices Summary: The Russian invasion of Georgia is a stark reminder of the unsettled nature of the T urkish geopolitical scene. By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if Russian forces withdraw to negotiated positions, there is every prospect for a sustained Russian political and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again face Russian power directly on its borders. In the near-term, Turke y will face dif- cult policy choices in reconcilingthe country’s Russian and West- ern interests. Even more difcult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Russia looms, and NAT O is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture.
