africom related news clips january 3, 2011

8/8/2019 AFRICOM Related News Clips January 3, 2011

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United States Africa CommandPublic Affairs Office3 January 2011

USAFRICOM - related news stories

TOP NEWS RELATED TO U.S. AFRICA COMMAND AND AFRICA

Obama condemns Egypt, Nigeria bombings (AFP)(Nigeria) President Barack Obama on Saturday denounced separate "outrageous"bombing attacks in Egypt and Nigeria.

Can Obama keep Sudan from exploding after its referendum?(Washington Post)(Sudan) President Obama is trying to avoid having to issue his own mea culpa over agenocide. Obama's test comes in Sudan, which on Jan. 9 is supposed to hold areferendum on whether the country's southern region will secede from the north. I

Opinion: US offer of asylum for Ivory Coast's Gbabgo reveals outdated foreign

policy(Christian Science Monitor)(Ivory Coast) The Obama administrations approach to Ivory Coast's incumbentPresident Laurent Gbagbo, based on reporting from The New York Times, suggests thatUS officials are caught in a time warp.

Backing for southern Sudan's secession in January poll could rekindle civil war (TheIrish Times)(Sudan) For autocratic regimes, focused on retaining control over their population,there is no such thing as a win-win situation; if anyone else gains, then by default, theylose, says Thomas Talley, a lieutenant colonel in the US army assigned to US AfricaCommand. There will be war in Sudan.

Role of Oil In Sudan(Voice of America)(Sudan) The USbacked 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) brought an endto the civil war in Sudan but the threat of a return to conflict remains close because

of the huge oil reserves, mostly located in the south, with much less in the north.

With Much at Stake, a Peaceful Vote on Dividing Sudan Appears More Likely (NewYork Times)(Sudan) What are the chances that the independence referendum in southern Sudan onJan. 9, the culmination of a peace process that ended decades of civil war between northand south, will set off another one? It seems the chances are slim and getting slimmer.


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Pentagon And NATO Apply Afghanistan-Pakistan War Model To Africa(OpEdNews.com)(Pan Africa) Air strikes, drone and cruise missile attacks, special forces operations,helicopter gunship raids, counterinsurgency campaigns, multinational armed

interventions, cluster bomb and depleted uranium weapons use, and the entire panoplyof military actions associated with the Afghanistan-Pakistan war are already beingconducted in Africa and will only be increased.

Raila Odinga departs for the Ivory Coast with a final warning for dictator Laurent

Gbagbo (Newstime Africa)(Ivory Coast) The African Union has sent the Prime Minister of Kenya, Raila Odinga,with a final message to the Ivory Coast dictator, Laurent Gbagbo, to step down or facethe ultimate threat of legitimate forceful removal.

Bomb explodes at army barracks in Nigeria (Associated Press)(Nigeria) A bomb blast tore through a beer garden at a Nigerian army barracks whererevelers had gathered to celebrate New Year's Eve, witnesses said, and state-runtelevision reported Friday that 30 people died, though police immediately disputedthat.

Mali Tackles Al Qaeda and Drug Traffic (New York Times)(Mali) In a sign that Mali both acknowledges the terrorism issue and seeks to addressit, the country is rolling out a new development plan, hoping to tackle the problem at itsroots.

Kidnappings Highlight Al-Qaida's Rise In The Sahara (NPR)(Pan Africa) Recent U.S. cables leaked by the WikiLeaks website show al-Qaida gaininga foothold in the Sahel, a lawless region in the Sahara desert, straddling the Africannations of Niger, Mali, Mauritania and Algeria. How to counter and curb growingIslamist militancy and banditry in this vast, poorly policed zone is a priority forgovernments in West Africa, Washington and beyond.

Desperate act leads to unrest in Tunisia (Associated Press)(Tunisia) Recent protests have exposed a side of Tunisia that the country has long triedto hide: the poverty of the countryside, poor job prospects for youths and seethingresentment at the government of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who has ruledTunisia with an iron fist since 1987.

General FAIL: The Militarys Worst Tweeters(Wired)Generals and admirals are powerful people. Their decisions determine the course ofthousands of lives, with aftereffects that can affect millions more. Their budgets can


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dwarf those of entire countries. Their words are parsed like the Talmud for clues aboutthe future of American warfare. And they absolutely cannot tweet.

Pentagon And NATO Apply Afghanistan-Pakistan War Model To Africa

(OpEdNews.com)

The New Year began with three North Atlantic Treaty Organization soldiers killed inAfghanistan and 20 people, all portrayed as militants, killed in four American missilestrikes in northwest Pakistan. The third drone missile attack killed four peopleattempting to rescue and remove the bodies of the victims of the first, a technique usedby the U.S. and NATO in their war against Yugoslavia in 1999.

UN News Service Africa Briefs

Full Articles on UN Websitey Ban reaffirms UN's unwavering support for presidential poll result in Cte

d'Ivoire

y Darfur mediation team voices commitment to peace negotiationsy Sudan: UN envoy lauds courage of both sides ahead of independence vote in

South

y Ban appoints Karin Landgren ofSweden as new UN envoy for Burundiy Any attack on new Cte dIvoire leader will be repulsed, top UN envoy warns

-------------------------------------------------------------------------UPCOMING EVENTS OF INTEREST:

WHEN/WHERE: Thursday, January 6, 2011; Brookings InstitutionWHAT: Waging Peace in Sudan: The Inside Story of the Comprehensive Peace

Agreement and the Prospects for Sudans FutureWHO: Hilde F. Johnson, author and former Minister of International Development ofNorway; Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ); Gayle Smith, National Security Council seniordirector for development and democracy; Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow RichWilliamsonInfo:https://www.cvent.com/EVENTS/Register/IdentityConfirmation.aspx?e=998af087-00b2-4e56-a2b7-9e9b46877662

WHEN/WHERE: Tuesday and Wednesday, February 8-9, 2011; National DefenseIndustrial Association, Marriott Wardman Park Hotel, Washington, DCWHAT: Defense, Diplomacy, and Development: Translating Policy into OperationalCapabilityWHO: Keynote Speakers include ADM Michael Mullen, USN, Chairman, Joint Chiefsof Staff; BG Simon Hutchinson, GBR, Deputy Commander, NATO Special OperationsForces Headquarters; ADM Eric T. Olson, USN, Commander, U.S. Special OperationsCommand; Gen Norton A. Schwartz, USAF, Chief of Staff, U.S. Air ForceInfo: http://www.ndia.org/meetings/1880/Pages/default.aspx


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----------------------------------------------------------------------------------FULL ARTICLE TEXT

Obama condemns Egypt, Nigeria bombings (AFP)

HONOLULU, Hawaii President Barack Obama on Saturday denounced separate"outrageous" bombing attacks in Egypt and Nigeria.

"I strongly condemn the separate and outrageous terrorist bombing attacks in Egyptand Nigeria," said Obama, who was visiting Hawaii.

"The attack on a church in Alexandria, Egypt caused 21 reported deaths and dozens ofinjured from both the Christian and Muslim communities.

"The perpetrators of this attack were clearly targeting Christian worshipers, and have

no respect for human life and dignity. They must be brought to justice for this barbaricand heinous act," Obama stressed.

He said the bombing in Abuja, Nigeria, targeted "innocent civilians who were simplygathering -- like so many people around the world -- to celebrate the beginning of aNew Year."

"The United States extends its deepest condolences to the families of those killed and tothe wounded in both of these attacks, and we stand with the Nigerian and Egyptianpeople at this difficult time," Obama added.

The State Department also issued a statement condemning the bombing in Alexandria,and extending condolences to the victims.

"The Department of State continues to gather information regarding this heinous act,"spokesman Mark Toner said.------------------Can Obama keep Sudan from exploding after its referendum? (Washington Post)

Looking back on his presidency, Bill Clinton has often expressed regret over hisadministration's failure to stop the genocide that ravaged Rwanda in 1994 and cost800,000 lives, even referring to it as a "personal failure" on his part. And PresidentGeorge W. Bush, who labeled the mass killings in Darfur in 2004 as "genocide," hasvoiced frustration over his inability to persuade the United Nations and others tointervene more forcefully.

Now President Obama is trying to avoid having to issue his own mea culpa.


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Obama's test comes in Sudan, which on Jan. 9 is supposed to hold a referendum onwhether the country's southern region will secede from the north. If the south votes forindependence - as it is expected to do after decades of marginalization and a north-south civil war - deadly violence could easily erupt. The government in Khartoum hasproved willing to brutalize its citizens (in the Darfur region and elsewhere) to remain in

power and achieve its aims, and secession would bring to the fore unresolved tensionsover Sudan's oil wealth and where to draw the new borders.

This time, the United States seems to have finally learned its lesson. In recent months,the Obama White House has convened multiple meetings of top advisers to discussSudan, sent a special envoy to the region more than 20 times and offered Khartoum apackage of carrots and sticks aimed at avoiding the worst violence. While theadministration won't deal directly with Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir,who has been indicted for war crimes committed in Darfur, U.S. officials have enlistedEgyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Sudan's neighbors to send a strong message

that the referendum must be held peacefully and on time.

"This is the first time I have seen the U.S. government devote so many high-levelresources to preventing violence before it happens rather than responding to it after thefact," Samantha Power told me in an interview. Power - whose 2002 book, "A ProblemFrom Hell," chronicled the world's failure to deal with 20th-century genocides and massslaughters from Armenia and the Holocaust to Rwanda and Bosnia - is now an adviserto Obama.

But these efforts and resources may not be enough. Yes, the world is watching: In

addition to Washington's diplomatic push, the African Union is trying to broker peace,European nations are sending economic assistance, and 10,000 U.N. peacekeepers are insouthern Sudan monitoring the situation. But the sad reality is that even an activelyengaged international community may be unable to head off mass violence in themonths or years ahead.

A coup in Khartoum, a cattle raid in the south that escalates into tribal violence, a roguemilitia commander deciding to start a new conflict in a fragile border region - there isvirtually no limit to the plausible scenarios that could lead to renewed fighting inSudan. Ethnic and economic tensions, the willingness of political leaders to manipulatethem and the easy availability of weapons will continue to make the country vulnerableto violence, even genocide.

If the referendum is not held on time or is tampered with by the north, "there is a hugepotential for war," former guerrilla soldier Acuil Malith Banggol told me during myrecent trip to the south. "Both parties are arming themselves, and there will be moredestruction. . . . There is no way southern Sudan is going to accept being humiliated andsubject to slavery, racial discrimination and religious discrimination."


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Preventing such violence through diplomacy, as the Obama administration isattempting, is obviously preferable to dealing with it later - but the options may belimited. Diplomacy can be effective only if it is complemented by willingness to takeaction if prevention fails. And here, the legacy of places such as Rwanda and Bosnia

yields a dispiriting conclusion: It is hard to have confidence that the world would bewilling or able to intervene to stop a mass slaughter in Sudan, especially in the monthsafter the referendum, when international attention will inevitably fade.

It is far from clear that the U.N. Security Council would react quickly to an unfoldingcrisis, and most experts agree that the U.N. troops in Sudan would be of little useshould atrocities commence. (Years of conferences, NATO and E.U. deliberations, andthink-tank studies on civilian protection have yet to yield momentum for an effectiveinternational rapid-deployment force to deal with such emergencies.) The United Stateshas the capacity to intervene militarily in Sudan, but after 10 years of war in

Afghanistan and Iraq, would it have the will, and would it be effective?

If the unthinkable were to happen in Sudan this year, we might hear echoes of RomeoDallaire, the Canadian general in charge of peacekeeping forces in Rwanda in 1994, whofutilely begged the United Nations for more troops to end the slaughter there - and whohas lived in anguished regret over his failure ever since.

In many respects, southern Sudan should offer an easy test case for the internationalcommunity. The potential for crisis has been slow-burning, with the Januaryreferendum date long looming as a possible trigger for violence, so the world's political

and military leaders have had the luxury of giving serious planning and thought to howto avoid calamity. Two successive U.S. administrations of both parties, along withpolitical leaders from Africa and elsewhere, have worked hard, if not always effectively,to keep the peace process on track. And everyone involved in the diplomatic efforts iskeenly aware of the recent failures to prevent massive killing in Darfur, where anongoing conflict has kept more than 2 million people living perilously in displacementcamps.

The Obama administration is populated with senior officials - Vice President Biden,U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton come tomind - who understand the consequences of past inaction. Although it took some timeto reach this point, the administration is now focused on preventing the worst. U.S.officials have been considering humanitarian contingencies for months, and the WhiteHouse has appointed a director of war crimes and atrocities whose full-time job is tonudge the bureaucracy to address crises such as Sudan.

As the referendum approaches, there are reasons to hope that the worst violence mightbe averted. Northern Sudan's political leaders are publicly suggesting that they could


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live, albeit grudgingly, with an independent southern Sudan. U.N. officials arereporting relative calm in the border regions where violence might first emerge.Authorities in both north and south seem committed to resolving their differencespolitically and understand that renewed war - after six years of uneasy peace - wouldbe disastrous for their economies and security. They also know that fresh fighting

would jeopardize the oil revenue on which both sides depend.

But the situation remains extremely dangerous. As India, Bangladesh and the formerYugoslavia attest, the partition or breakup of states has often been extremely bloody forcivilians. In my conversations with dozens of people in the south, genuine hope for thefuture was mixed with a sober understanding of the risks ahead: After all, almosteveryone endured terrible hardship during the civil war - the loss of a parent or child,slavery, or a massacre in their village.

And they are hardly sure that they can count on the world to keep history from

repeating itself. As they see it, the depredations that took place in southern Sudan, longbefore Darfur became a household name in the West, received scant attention fromother governments and peoples.

Goi Jooyui Yol, a political commissioner in Akobo County in the south, keenlyremembers the silence of the international community when the massive violenceengulfed his country in the 1980s and 1990s, taking more than 2 million lives anddisplacing an additional 4 million people. The violence was "very intense," he told me."Before the world knew, many people were killed."

Next time, ignorance won't be an excuse.------------------Opinion: US offer of asylum for Ivory Coast's Gbabgo reveals outdated foreignpolicy (Christian Science Monitor)

The Obama administrations approach to Ivory Coast's incumbent President LaurentGbagbo, based on reporting from The New York Times, suggests that US officials arecaught in a time warp. Theyre behaving as if it is the 1990s, and their object is to induceformer dictator Joseph Dsir Mobuto from power in the Congo. The proffer ofasylum in the US or a plum posting with an international agency has the ring oflunacy about it, as if the administration was mistaking Mr. Gbagbo for former LiberianPreisdent Charles Taylor, former Zambian President Kenneth Kuanda, or even currentZimbabwean strongman Robert Mugabe.

Gbagbo may possess many flaws, but he is not in need of asylum or an international jobfor which he neither suited professionally nor temperamentally. Nor will comical offersof relocating him to the US induce him to leave Ivory Coast. Gbagbo might indeed be


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wondering who is crazier, him or the US officials assigned to oversee his exit fromoffice.

His defiant response to foreign criticism is thus no crazier than the Americanconception of his exit. In his address on the eve of 2011, Gbagbo said the pressure for

him to quit amounted to an attempted coup detat carried out under the banner of theinternational community.

To be sure, Gbagbo must go; not in a coup detat, but in a legal, necessary and inevitabletransfer of power. But once out of power, Gbagbo should be free to choose where hewishes to live, and even include Ivory Coast on the list of his future domiciles.

I recall distinctly how former President Jerry Rawlings in neighboring Ghana was ableto live peacefully amid his former subjects after he was termed out ten years ago. Onenight in 2002, while dancing with my Nigerian wife, Chizo, to a hi-life band in Ghana's

capital, Accra, I found myself admiring Mr. Rawlings up close. He was dancing with hiswifes sister barely inches from me. I wrote an article at the time called Dancing withDictators in which I marveled at the capacity of Ghanaians to permit their formerdictator-turned-elected-president to live peacefully among them.

So, the answer to the question of whither Gbagbo post presidency is simple: let himchoose the terms of his persistence.

The zany notion presented by the Obama administration, expressed to The New YorkTimes by one anonymous official, that the longer the stalemate ensues, and the more

violence there is, the more that window closes, reflects an ossified view of Africanpolitics, a bygone understanding of the internal dynamics within Ivory Coast and WestAfrica.

The reality that Obamas people refuse to face is that two years into office, theirpresident has been unable to forge an effective policy for US engagement with Nigeria,the sub-regional economic powerhouse, or Ivory Coast, the most importantFrancophone country.

Only in Liberia, where the US has a legacy of outsized influence, has Obamas presencebeen felt. Everywhere else in West Africa, even in docile Ghana, the new president hasleft no mark, which is why, as I noted last month in the Christian Science Monitor, hispolitical fortunes appear to run counter the fortunes of American relations with the sub-Saharan.

To be sure, in the days and weeks ahead, the US will influence the events in IvoryCoast. But Obamas amateur Africanists should not flatter themselves: their influence,at best, is limited.


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Only by playing well with others the French, the United Nations, and the sub-regionalECOWAS grouping dominated by Nigeria will the US have any role in the outcome inAbidjan. For Americans in power, the era of hubris and over-reach towards Africaand the international community has yet to end.

------------------Backing for southern Sudan's secession in January poll could rekindle civil war (TheIrish Times)

The clock is ticking. Every new visitor to Juba, the southern Sudanese capital, cant missit. At the first roundabout on the road from the airport to the dusty city, a digital clockstares down on a jamboree of UN vehicles and motorbike taxis below.

Countdown to Southern Sudan Referendum Period Remaining. 10 days. 255 hours.15323 minutes.

On January 9th, southern Sudanese are scheduled to vote in an independencereferendum that will split Africas biggest country and give birth to the worlds newest.

The issue is no longer whether the south will vote Yes. The souths political leaders areunited in their quest for freedom, while US secretary of state Hillary Clinton hasalready called a vote for secession inevitable.

The question now is whether renewed fighting will break out between the north andsouth, or even, if the south votes to split, between the newly independent tribes in the

south.

On the first issue, the consequences are almost too horrible to contemplate. More than 2million people died in the 22-year civil war that only ended in 2005 with the signing ofthe Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the two sides.

More than five years later, although agreement has still not been reached on the finaldemarcation of the border between the two regions and the sharing of oil revenues,four-fifths of which lie in the south.

The Khartoum government in the north says it has agreed to offer rights of self-determination to southern Sudan, but there has been a worrying build-up of troops oneither side of the north- south border in recent weeks.

In Blue Nile State, north Sudanese forces were required under the CPA to reduce forcesto the pre-war level of two battalions (about 1,600 soldiers). According to the statesgovernor, Malik Agar, they still have 20,000 troops there.


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The south has about 17,000, according to the Small Arms Survey, and local observershave noted a marked increase in traffic of tanks, trucks and pick-ups in recent weeks bysouthern Sudanese forces.

A resumption of war could cost Sudan $50 billion in lost economic growth over 10

years, according to a study by Frontier Economics.

The Khartoum government has waged war against rebel and secessionist tribes in theeast, south and west of the country for years. Taking on the south again, no matter howhorrible the consequences, might not be such a huge problem for them.

For autocratic regimes, focused on retaining control over their population, there is nosuch thing as a win-win situation; if anyone else gains, then by default, they lose, saysThomas Talley, a lieutenant colonel in the US army assigned to US Africa Command.There will be war in Sudan.

It is a particularly gloomy assessment, but even if he is wrong, several dissidents withtheir own local or tribal grievances have begun to launch insurrections against thesouths ruling SPLM regime.

The government has managed to quell them in the run-up to the vote, but keeping thesouth stable and peaceful will require a lot more work, no matter what the result onJanuary 9th.------------------Role of Oil In Sudan (Voice of America)

The USbacked 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) brought an end to thecivil war in Sudan but the threat of a return to conflict remains close because of thehuge oil reserves, mostly located in the south, with much less in the north.

Sudan's ruling National Congress Party has always denied there is a link between theCPA and oil. Recently the foreign minister of Sudan Ali Karti said it the intention wasto end the war, and nothing more.

Khartoum has changed a lot since the war ended. Peace has boosted oil production to ahalf million barrels a day. The generated money is easily visible on the streets of theSudanese capital. Skyscrapers are being built, new bridges constructed, fancy carscruise the city, and foreign bank accounts are available and popular.

Hafiz Mohammed, an analyst based in Khartoum, thinks that oil is a key part of theCPA.


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"I think the oil is one of the main factors which actually influence the whole CPA or thecomprehensive peace agreement, because it is the main source of income for the northand south," says Mohammed.

"The north has other resources but the oil is still a major factor, that is why they have

the wealth sharing protocol which addresses the issue of how to divide the proceeds ofthe oil sale," Mohammed explains.

The south is expected to ovewhelmingly vote for seperation from the north in January'sreferendum. According to Mohammed, secession could have a very severe impact onthe norths economy,

He says the north is going to face problems, there is no way of denying that. "Thenorth," he says, " is going to loose at least 50% of its income which in turn will affect theforeign currency proceeds which in turn will affect the value of the currency (the

sudanese pound) which will then have a devastating impact on Sudan generally."

Another analyst, Alhajj Hamad, blames the government for putting the oil money in thepocket of officials and not preparing the country for the likelihood that the south mightdecide to seceed. The citizens of the north never had a share in the oil revenue, the oildirectly went into the coffers of the government to expand securityand the militaryapparatus. Hamad says, "in the last six years 35% of the annual budget was for securityand defence."

The vice-presidents of the north and south, Ali Osman Taha and Riak Machar, agreed

last month to jointly guard the oil fields before and after the refrendum to helpguarantee the oil revenues. Hamad says there are plans in place to to hand over thecontrol of the fields from the north to the south.

"It is very clear that in the post referendum period, there is one initiative by the currentMinister of Energy in which he has suggested a slow paced handover for the south. Asyou know on the referundum vote, it is mostly expected the south will go for aseparation. Then six months after the referendum they are supposed to have a kind ofan action plan for a handover," explains Hasmad.

The agreement of the two vice presidents might be the first step to in-corparate theregions. Both depend on each other, one doesnt have oil and the other doesnt havepipelines to export the oil.

Some northerners are not worried about the souths secession. As president OmarBashir pointed out recently, the effect of the seperation would be minimal.


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Umeima Ahmed an NCP member of parliament says proudly, that the north livedwithout oil before and can again.

"The oil has been just discovered five years ago, we were managing our lives beforethat. Now we will look for other alternatives, we have gold and vast lands with water to

farm on, let the southhave their oil," Ahmed asserts.

The north has expanded its farming sector and currently is exploring for more oil in thewestern region of Darfur. According to Hamad, oil means more political problems in anation already suffering because of oil.

She says, "already in the oil fields of South Darfur, there is production of 30, 000 barrelsa day. Surely, we should not feel happy because of the experience of the south. Withoil there is more political instability, and now with 30,000 barrels in Bileil in SouthDarfur simply means 30,000 political problems," she says.

The senior member of NCP and the head of the energy committee in the nationalassembly, Mohammed Abdallah Musa, says oil production in the north will double.

"Our aim in the coming period is to expand our exploration, " Musa says " because wedont want more troubles connected oil. We are satisfied, and ready to accept having anew neighboring nation."

Whether that will remain true once southern oil revenues dry up is one of the bigquestion marks hanging over the outcome of the referendum, and the end of the CPA.

------------------With Much at Stake, a Peaceful Vote on Dividing Sudan Appears More Likely (NewYork Times)

KHARTOUM, Sudan Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has called thesituation a ticking time bomb.

A team of British researchers are so concerned about the looming possibility of aconflict that they published a study on the price the world would pay if one broke out:$100 billion.

Even George Clooney is focusing on it and has joined with Google to monitor thepotential battlefields, by satellite imagery.

But what, really, are the chances that the independence referendum in southern Sudanon Jan. 9, the culmination of a peace process that ended decades of civil war betweennorth and south, will set off another one?


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It seems the chances are slim and getting slimmer.

True, Sudan is a vast, poor country with a long track record of conflict. Arms are easy toget here and militias roam just about every corner of the country. The referendum willindeed be delicate because the south will most likely vote (by about 99 percent) to

secede, splitting the largest country in Africa in two and taking with it most of Sudansoil.

But as the clock counts down toward voting day, despite earlier prognostications of adelay, there are more and more signs that things will go smoothly.

Just last week, Sudans president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, publicly pledged to help hissouthern brothers.

The ball is in your court, he said at a rally. The decision is yours.

Amr Moussa, secretary general of the Arab League, is also confident the vote will bepeaceful. I dont feel any inclination to hostilities between the two parties, he said,according to Sudans news agency.

The stakes are so high that neither side, the Islamist northern Sudanese government orthe former rebels who lead southern Sudan, seems to want to be sucked into a waragain, or at least to start one. Over the past year, there has been such a steady drumbeatof Armageddon predictions and hand-wringing over the referendum that a broad arrayof potential problems have been prepared for and contingency plans discussed. The

stage is now set for the vote to be historic and highly emotional, but not a catastrophe.

Both sides, according to many analysts, are more pragmatic than they are often givencredit for. Despite being portrayed as careless brutes in many Western countries, theIslamist cabal that controls Sudan, starting with Mr. Bashir, has shown surprisingelasticity.

Mr. Bashir has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges,the United States and the United Nations have imposed sanctions on northern Sudanand the rebellion in Darfur continues to grind on. Mr. Bashir and company remainfirmly in control in Khartoum, the capital, which continues to get hefty diplomatic andfinancial support from China and the Arab world, but they seem eager to normalizerelations with the West and know that interference with the referendum would torpedoany chance of that happening.

Though the north will clearly lose out if the south breaks off, northern leaders seem tohave accepted that there is little they can do about it. According to Mohammed Hamad,a political science professor in Khartoum, Mr. Bashir will be reluctant to go to war


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because others will use it as an excuse, and Israel and the U.S. will try to dispose theregime.

Whether there is any truth to this theory may be immaterial, since many in Khartoumseem to firmly believe it.

The southern leaders, for their part, do not seem to want war. Why would they? Theyare on the verge of peacefully achieving what has taken decades of sacrifice. More thantwo million people were killed in the north-south civil war, which began in the 1950sand pitted animist and Christian rebels in the south against Arab rulers in the north.

The southern leaders have been enjoying a taste of autonomy since 2005, when a north-south peace treaty was signed. They have rebuilt towns and invested hundreds ofmillions, perhaps even billions, in roads, ministries, schools and factories, much ofwhich could be bombed into oblivion in a few days by the norths growing air force. To

keep their dreams of independence alive, the southerners seem ready to makeconcessions. This includes sharing the oil.

Were not about to cut the pipes, said Gideon Gatpan Thoar, the information ministerfor Unity State, one of the oil-rich states in the south.

Oil may ultimately hold Sudan together. Though 75 percent of Sudans oil revenuecomes from the south, it is landlocked, and the pipeline to export that oil runs throughthe north. Mr. Thoar said it would be a disaster to do anything to stop the flow of oil,which provides both north and south with a huge percentage of government revenue.

On their side, the northerners seem ready to give up some oil and take the economic hit.

The north will suffer, said Ghazi Salah al-Din al-Atabani, a top adviser to Mr. Bashir.We expect, after secession and the loss of oil revenue, that we will have to imposemore stringent economic measures. Definitely there is going to be a setback at the verybeginning.

The biggest risk, then, that a war will break out seems to lie in the uncontrolledelements, the unknown unknowns, as former Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeldfamously said.

For example, in Abyei, one disputed area along the yet-to-be-demarcated north-southborder, there are militias aligned to the north and to the south, but they are notnecessarily controlled by either. According to several analysts, these militias could firethe first shots, possibly provoked by a land dispute. Then the northern and southernarmies, both of which have been buying enormous quantities of weapons in recentyears, could pile in.


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Beyond that, there are rebels in Darfur in the west, rebels in the east, rebels in the NubaMountains and along the Nile River, raising fears that if war erupted, it could spreadrapidly.

I can imagine the east going off; I can imagine Darfur going off; I can imagine the restof the Sudan; but to disintegrate this area, it is difficult, said Mr. Hamad, the politicalscience professor in Khartoum, referring to the central Sudanese heartland around theNile. The inhabitants here are not tribal. I have never consulted my tribal elders tosolve any problems. I go to the police, I go to school.

He continued: The people of central Sudan and this is very important for you tounderstand the future of Sudan are pro-state, and they accept the government, andwhen they depose a government, they depose it to bring a better government.

There will be decay, maybe, he said, after the separation of the south. Butdisintegration, no.

He and others also predicted that in coming days, northern and southern leaders mightagree to divide the Abyei territory, which would significantly reduce the chances of aconflict.------------------Pentagon And NATO Apply Afghanistan-Pakistan War Model To Africa(OpEdNews.com)


The West's war in Afghanistan and Pakistan is currently the longest, largest anddeadliest in the world. Fatalities among U.S. troops, non-U.S. NATO and allied forces,Afghan National Army soldiers and anti-government fighters reached a record high lastyear: 498, 213, 800 and an unknown number (by U.S. and NATO accounts well into thethousands), respectively. The United Nations estimated 2,400 Afghan civilians werekilled in the first ten months of last year, a 20 percent increase over the same period inthe preceding year. Approximately a thousand people were killed by U.S. drone missilestrikes in Pakistan.

It says something discouraging about a world of almost 200 nations that perhaps nomore than half a dozen countries - so-called rogue states (alternatively CondoleezzaRice's "outposts of tyranny") - have voiced opposition to the war.


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Washington's self-designated global war on terror (sometimes capitalized), in recentyears more politely and antiseptically called overseas contingency operations, has notdiminished in intensity but rather escalated in breadth and aggressiveness from WestAfrica to East Asia and against targets not remotely related to al-Qaeda, which has

proven as nebulous and evasive as the West portrays it being ubiquitous.

From 2001 to the present the U.S. has engaged in and supported military operationsagainst Marxist guerrillas in Colombia and the Philippines, ethnic Tuaregs in Mali,nominally Christian insurgents in Uganda and Shiite Houthi militia in northern Yemenin the name of combating...al-Qaeda. The Wahhabist school of extremism thatcharacterizes al-Qaeda and analogous groups derives its doctrinal inspiration andmaterial support from Saudi Arabia, yet last October Washington announced a $63billion arms package with the kingdom, the largest foreign weapons deal in Americanhistory.

Washington and its NATO military allies have opened a war front across the ArabianSea from Pakistan in the east to Somalia and Yemen in the west as the central focus ofoperations that began almost ten years ago. [1]

On October 1, 2008 the Pentagon formally launched its first overseas military commandin the post-Cold War era, U.S. Africa Command, which takes in 53 nations and an entirecontinent except for Egypt, which remains in Central Command.

The second command's area of responsibility reaches from the eastern border of Libya

to the western border of China and southern border of Russia. From Egypt toKazakhstan. The Horn of Africa region, including Somalia, was ceded by CentralCommand to Africa Command (AFRICOM), but the Arabian Peninsula, includingYemen, remains in Central Command.

Though the Pentagon's Combined Joint Task Force -" Horn of Africa, now subsumedunder AFRICOM and based in the Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti, includes thirteennations in East Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Peninsula in its area ofoperations: Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius,Seychelles, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Yemen. Operation EnduringFreedom, under which the U.S. conducts its greater Afghan war, encompasses sixteencountries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Cuba (Guantanamo Bay), Djibouti,Eritrea, Ethiopia, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, the Philippines, Seychelles, Sudan,Tajikistan, Turkey and Yemen.

The U.S. maintains at least 2,500 troops in Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti and in late 2009deployed over 100 troops, Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) equipped for


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guided bombs and missiles and three P-3 Orion anti-submarine and maritimesurveillance aircraft to Seychelles.

Washington was accused by Houthi rebels in the north of Yemen of participating withSaudi Arabia in deadly bombing raids against them in the northwestern province of

Sa'ada in December of 2009. They stated American jet fighters launched 28 attacks in theprovince which included bombing the governor's house and killing 120 people in oneattack. [2]

Later in the same month the U.S. conducted cruise missile and air strikes with the use ofcluster bombs in southern Yemen which killed over 60 civilians, mostly women andchildren. Another air strike was launched in March of 2010.

Leading American officials have demanded drone missile strikes in Yemen and severalhundred U.S. special forces are deployed to the country.

The U.S. and its allies in NATO and the European Union are actively involved in thecivil war in Somalia, across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen.

The Pentagon supported the Ethiopian invasion of the country in 2006 and launchedtwo days of air strikes in January of the following year. In the autumn of 2009 U.S.special forces conducted a deadly helicopter gunship raid in southern Somalia.

The New Year in Somalia started with a fierce battle between foreign troops backing theTransitional Federal Government (TFG) and al-Shabaab rebels, resulting in at 15 dead

and 25 wounded. Inhabitants of the Somali capital reported that "the Mogadishu skyturned red [and] kids were crying and had been unable to sleep as the crackling ofmachine guns and barrages rocked throughout the city." [3]

There are approximately 6,000 troops from U.S. military client states Uganda andBurundi fighting on behalf of the formal government of the country under the banner ofthe African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Although approved by the AfricanUnion, AMISOM and its predecessor, the Intergovernmental Authority onDevelopment (IGAD) Peace Support Mission in Somalia (IGASOM), primarily havebeen initiatives by Washington and its allies in NATO and the EU.

European warships are deployed for NATO's Operation Ocean Shield and the EU'sOperation Atalanta off Somalia's coast in the Gulf of Aden. (In military matters thedistinction between NATO and the EU is becoming an increasingly formal one.)

At least fifteen EU member states, most of them also NATO members - Britain, France,Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Belgium, Portugal, Luxembourg, Sweden,Finland, Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - have sent no fewer than 150 military personnel to


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Uganda to train 2,000 Somali troops for war in their homeland in a program financed bythe U.S.

In the middle of last month the local press reported that the first 1,000 Somali soldiers"trained by officers from the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF) and senior

military officers from 27 European Union countries" graduated from the Bihangamilitary training school in Western Uganda, a "facility...set up early this year to trainTFG Officers and foot soldiers in a bid to boost the military capability of war-tornSomalia...."

"The soldiers are expected to provide the core of officers and men of a new Somaliarmy...to provide a much-needed boost to the fragile Transitional Federal Government(TFG) in Mogadishu." [4]

Since June of 2007 NATO has provided airlift and sealift for AMISOM (Ugandan and

Burundian) troops deployed to Somalia. The next year NATO flew a Burundianbattalion into Somalia and in March of last year the Western military bloc transported1,700 Ugandan troops into and 850 out of the Somali capital.

The month before the initial inauguration of AFRICOM in 2007, when it was still underU.S. European Command (whose top commander is simultaneously NATO SupremeAllied Commander Europe), a Pentagon official announced that Africa Command"would involve one small headquarters plus five 'regional integration teams' scatteredaround the continent" and that "AFRICOM would work closely with the EuropeanUnion and NATO," particularly France, a leading member of both organizations, which

was "interested in developing the Africa standby force". [5]

In the same year the U.S. Defense Department acknowledged it had already "agreed onaccess to air bases and ports in Africa and 'bare-bones' facilities maintained by localsecurity forces in Gabon, Kenya, Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Sao Tome and Principe,Senegal, Tunisia, Uganda and Zambia." [6]

The five regions of Africa identified by the U.S. military - north, south, east, west andcentral - are all represented by the locations named above and are each home to abranch of the African Standby Force (Northern, Southern, Eastern, Western andCentral), like AMISOM nominally under the control of the African Union but in factoverseen by the U.S. and NATO.

The North Atlantic Alliance inaugurated the NATO Response Force, in NATO's ownwords "a highly ready and technologically advanced multinational force made up ofland, air, maritime and special forces components that the Alliance can deploy quicklyto wherever it is needed," in and off the coast of the African island of Cape Verde in2006 in a two-week, 7,000-troop exercise codenamed Steadfast Jaguar. [7]


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The African Standby Force is modeled after the NATO Response Force."NATO...supports staff capacity building through the provision of places on NATOtraining courses to AU [African Union] staff supporting AMISOM, and support to theoperationalisation of the African Standby Force - the African Union's vision for a

continental, on-call security apparatus similar to the NATO Response Force." [8] It is ajoint project of NATO and the Pentagon, formerly U.S. European Command andcurrently U.S. Africa Command.

To date the only fully successful implementation of the project is the Eastern AfricaStandby Force, whose Eastern Africa Standby Brigade (with headquarters in Ethiopiaand its Eastern African Standby Brigade Coordination Mechanism in Kenya) consists ofBurundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rwanda,Seychelles, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania (as an observer) and Uganda.

It is largely coterminous with the Pentagon's Combined Joint Task Force -" Horn ofAfrica without Yemen and with Burundi and Rwanda added. In October of 2009 theEastern Africa Standby Brigade (EASBRIG) held military exercises in Djibouti, whereCombined Joint Task Force -" Horn of Africa is based.

Last month the defense chiefs of the twelve members of EASBRIG (presumably Eritreawas absent) met in the capital of Burundi to discuss "the Policy Framework for theEstablishment of the Eastern Africa Standby Force [EASF] and the Memorandum ofUnderstanding for Cooperation between the Eastern Africa Standby Force CoordinationMechanism [EASBRICOM] and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development

[IGAD] that aims to harmonise the relations of both institutions...." [9]

NATO, which has been training African Standby Force staff officers at its trainingcenter in Oberammergau, Germany, has designated the NATO Joint Command Lisbonto implement the bloc's military cooperation with Africa. Joint Command Lisbon haswhat it identifies as a Senior Military Liaison Officer at the African Union headquartersin Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. (The territory of every nation in Africa except for Liberia,founded by the American Colonization Society in 1821-1822, was formerly ruled bynations that joined NATO: Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spainand Turkey.)

On September 5, 2007 "the North Atlantic Council -" NATO's top political decisionmaking body - agreed to provide assistance to the African Union with a study on theassessment of the operational readiness of the African Standby Force brigades,"according to the NATO website.

In the west of Africa, the Economic Community of West African States Standby Forcebrigade is being readied to intervene in Ivory Coast to depose President Laurent


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Gbagbo as the Dutch Defense Ministry announced last week that one of its ships was"heading for the coast of Cote d'Ivoire to provide supplies for French warshipsstationed there." [10]

U.S. Naval Forces Europe - U.S. Naval Forces Africa, which is headquartered in Naples,

Italy and directs its operations through the U.S. Sixth Fleet, also headquartered in Italy,launched the Africa Partnership Station in 2007 as a naval component of AFRICOM.Warships assigned to it have visited several African nations on the east, west and southends of the continent, among them Angola, Cameroon, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea,Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Reunion, Sao Tomeand Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania and Togo.

Last month the Pentagon's Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Africa VickiHuddleston and the State Department's Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Statefor African Affairs Donald Yamamoto (who was ambassador to Ethiopia when it

invaded Somalia in 2006) visited U.S. Africa Command headquarters in Stuttgart,Germany. While there the Defense Department's Huddleston asserted that "East Africabecomes extremely high for DOD [the Department of Defense] in terms of priority. Sothe highest priority for DOD, and therefore AFRICOM, becomes East Africa because ofSomalia and then West (Africa), North Africa...." [11]

The month before, Ugandan People's Defence Air Force Chief Major General JimOwoyesigire visited 17th Air Force (Air Forces Africa) at the Ramstein Air Base inGermany, also headquarters for U.S. Air Forces in Europe and NATO's Allied AirCommand.

Owoyesigire stated that his country's new air force was in part the product of anAfrican air chiefs conference he attended in Ramstein in 2007 where he "began learningfrom the US Air Force."

In regards to Uganda's role as one of the two major belligerent forces in the war inSomalia and its counterinsurgency war at home (and across its borders) against theLord's Resistance Army, the air force head confirmed that "Help from U.S. AfricaCommand and 17th AF has been a key enabler for the UPDAF's [Ugandan People'sDefence Air Force's] contribution to these missions."

"When we started in AMISOM, we had no airlift capability. General Ward [WilliamWard, AFRICOM commander] came and visited and helped us to partner with the U.S.Air Force to get this airlift capability. To get training, 17th AF came and trained us inloading cargo and airdrops, and this has really helped us.


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"This is a wide question, but right now, we are asking 17th AF to come and help usestablish a squadron officers' school and NCO academy in Uganda. If we can developthese schools, then we can also involve our east African partners." [12]

Early in December the commander of U.S. Army Africa, Major General David Hogg,

visited Algeria to meet with senior military and government officials to discuss"bilateral relations and regional issues," including joint reconnaissance and trainingactivities and "a future visit by Algerian soldiers to the United States to investigate howthe Army integrates its lessons learned center into its training regime."

U.S. Army Africa is the Army's newest service component command and is based inVicenza, Italy, assigned to AFRICOM and tasked with "developing relationships withland forces in Africa and supporting U.S. Army efforts on the African continent." [13]

The regional issues deliberated on by the American general and his Algerian

counterparts relate to Algeria's military campaign against Salafist insurgents andsimilar counterinsurgency operations throughout the Sahel, which consists of parts ofAlgeria, Burkina Faso, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria,Senegal, Somalia and Sudan.

At the end of last month U.S. military personnel assigned to Combined Joint Task Force- Horn of Africa and Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti participated in a combat casualtycourse in Burundi as part of a U.S. State Department-sponsored program. According toJames Cobb, State Department program country manager in Burundi, "The course ispart of a U.S. Department of State initiative to provide African armies an opportunity to

partner with American defense forces to develop their peacekeeping skills foroperations throughout Africa." [14]

In December the defense chief of Djibouti, Major General Fathi Ahmed Houssein, metwith AFRICOM commander General William Ward at AFRICOM headquarters inStuttgart to discuss "joint security cooperation activities and potential areas of furthercooperation...in East Africa and throughout the continent."

As the AFRICOM website put it:

"Djibouti hosts approximately 3,000 U.S. and allied personnel at Camp Lemonnier,which is the only major U.S. military facility in Africa, though small teams of U.S.personnel work across the continent on short-term assignments. The main militaryorganization at Camp Lemonnier is the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa(CJTF-HOA). A component of U.S. AFRICOM, CJTF-HOA sends teams throughout theEast Africa region [to] protect U.S. and coalition interests."


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Among several joint programs, the generals elaborated plans for "Support to Djiboutianarmed forces in the Eastern African Standby Brigade(EASBRIG) field training exercise, aimed to assess the readiness and capability ofEASBRIG, a component of the African Union's Africa Standby Force...."

And expansion of the "International Military Education and Training, a program thatinvites foreign military officers to attend military schools in the United States, andprovides funding for trainers to provide specific, localized training in Africancountries."

As well as the continuation of the "Africa Contingency Operations Training andAssistance program, designed to improve African militaries' capabilities by providingselected training and equipment required to execute multinational...operations."

Ward and Houssein also discussed "other ways to increase support in building partner

capacity in the Horn of Africa through the U.S. Defense Department's 1206 program [totrain and equip foreign militaries for "counterterrorism or stability operations"] and theU.S. State Department's Partnership Regional East African Counter-Terrorismprogram," especially in regard to Ugandan-Burundian AMISOM operations in Somalia.[15]

Air strikes, drone and cruise missile attacks, special forces operations, helicoptergunship raids, counterinsurgency campaigns, multinational armed interventions,cluster bomb and depleted uranium weapons use, and the entire panoply of militaryactions associated with the Afghanistan-Pakistan war are already being conducted in

Africa and will only be increased.------------------Raila Odinga departs for the Ivory Coast with a final warning for dictator LaurentGbagbo (Newstime Africa)

The African Union has sent the Prime Minister of Kenya, Raila Odinga, with a finalmessage to the Ivory Coast dictator, Laurent Gbagbo, to step down or face the ultimatethreat of legitimate forceful removal. Gbagbo, who has shown defiance in the face of anelection that was won outright by his rival, Alassane Ouattara, must haveunderestimated the resolve of the International community in its determination toremove him and ensure democracy prevails. The United States of America has beenquite impressive, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has not only been at theforefront calling for Gbagbo to step down, her government has instituted stiff sanctionstargeting senior officials of the Gbagbo regime. The US support has been remarkableand should be commended. The UK government has also said it would support militaryaction once a decision has been made.


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Raila Odinga is known to be a fierce no-nonsense negotiator, who will tell it as it is toGbagbo, and is expected to deliver the final non-negotiable ultimatum for the dictatorto vacate the presidency. Laurent Gbagbo has embarrassed his country and his fellowAfrican Union colleagues, who have been working very hard to ensure democracybecomes the political way of life across Africa. He has demonstrated blatant hunger for

power and an insatiable appetite for the trappings that comes with the presidency. Heshould recognise that it will not be the end of the world for him, and that it is someoneelses turn to govern. There is no turning back, the world is determined to see him go.

Laurent Gbagbos recalcitrance has now resulted in the UN investigating human rightsabuses in the country, and the focus now is on mass graves that have been reportedlyconcealed by the regime preventing UN officials to investigation atrocities that mayhave culminated from the recent elections in the country. Efforts have also been madeby ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West Africa States, to try and end theimpasse, but Gbagbo was defiant as three West African heads of states flew into

Abidjan with an attractive package to lure him to step down. This intransigence has inturn angered his colleagues in the region who have now threatened to use legitimatemilitary force to remove him. The next 25hrs is vital as the final push begins to bring anend to this political drama that threatens the very peace and security of the entire WestAfrican region.------------------Bomb explodes at army barracks in Nigeria (Associated Press)

ABUJA, Nigeria A bomb blast tore through a beer garden at a Nigerian armybarracks where revelers had gathered to celebrate New Year's Eve, witnesses said, and

state-run television reported Friday that 30 people died, though police immediatelydisputed that.

A local police spokesman said the blast occurred at about 7:30 p.m. Friday in Abuja, thecapital of Africa's most populous nation.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the explosion in this oil-rich nationwhere citizens remain uneasy after bombings at other locations had killed dozens ofpeople several days earlier.

"It's unfortunate that some people planted (a) bomb where people are relaxing becauseof the new year," Air Marshal Oluseyi Petirin told journalists. "Nobody has been able togive accurate figures (of casualties), but we have rescued some people."

An anchor on the state-run Nigerian Television Authority gave a death toll of 30 toviewers Friday night. The channel did not give an estimate on the number of injured.


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Local police spokesman Jimoh Moshood immediately disputed the figure, saying onlyfour people had died and 13 were wounded. Death tolls remain contentious in Nigeria,as politicians often inflate or shrink tolls to suit their aspirations.

Witnesses said the market appeared full at the time of the blast. A local journalist at the

scene told The Associated Press that soldiers carried injured people away, with oneofficer saying he feared there were fatalities.

In the minutes after the explosion, police and soldiers swarmed the area, blockingonlookers from entering the area. Later, an AP journalist saw police carrying outcovered bodies and putting them in the back of police vehicles. Officers shouted at eachother to keep the bodies covered and hidden from onlookers.

The base, called the Mogadishu Cantonment, includes an area of market stalls and beerparlors referred to locally as a "mammy market." There, civilians and soldiers regularly

gather for drinks and its famous barbecued fish.

The blasts come days after a similar attack struck a nation that remains uneasily dividedbetween Christians and Muslims. On Christmas Eve, three bombs exploded in thecentral Nigerian city of Jos, killing dozens of people. That area has seen more than 500die in religious and ethnic violence this year alone.

Members of a radical Muslim sect attacked two churches in the northern city ofMaiduguri the same night, killing at least six people.

The sect, known locally as Boko Haram, later claimed responsibility for both attacks inan Internet message. Police say they are still investigating those attacks.

Boko Haram means "Western education is sacrilege" in the local Hausa language. Itsmembers re-emerged recently after starting a July 2009 riot that led to a securitycrackdown that left 700 people dead.

The Christmas Eve killings in Jos and Maiduguri add to the tally of thousands whoalready have died in Nigeria in the last decade over religious and political tension. Thebombings also come as the nation prepares for what could be a tumultuous presidentialelection in April.

This isn't the first time Nigeria's typically quiet capital has seen violence this year. Adual car bombing killed at least 12 people and wounded dozens more during an Oct. 1independence celebration in the capital. The main militant group in Nigeria's oil-richsouthern delta, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, claimedresponsibility for the attack.


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In a statement, a spokesman for President Goodluck Jonathan said whoever planted thebomb wanted "to turn the joys of fellow Nigerians to ashes."

"This is extreme evil. It is wicked. It defies all that we believe in and stand for as anation," the statement from Ima Niboro read.

It added: "They must be made to pay. No one, and we repeat, no one, can make thisnation ungovernable."

Nigeria, an OPEC-member nation, remains a vital supplier of easily refined crude oil tothe U.S. Unrest in the West African nation has affected oil prices in the past. Beyondthat, Western diplomats worry ethnic, religious and political violence could hobble thenation of 150 million people forever just as it adjusts to democracy after years ofmilitary dictatorships and coups.------------------

Mali Tackles Al Qaeda and Drug Traffic (New York Times)

BAMAKO, Mali The tourism minister, NDiaye Bah, visibly bristled when askedabout the possibility that Al Qaedas North African offshoot might kidnap foreigners infabled Timbuktu or anywhere across Malis northern desert.

France spread such rumors, he insisted. They want to create this security issue thatdoes not exist, he said, wagging his finger. When you come to Mali, there is noaggression against tourists. How can you say there is insecurity in this country?

Yet the United States and French Embassies, among other foreign missions, explicitlywarn against traveling to Timbuktu and indeed the entire desert that sweeps acrossroughly two-thirds of this landlocked West African nation. A French Embassy mapcolors the entire north red, a no-go area.

This uneasy, public standoff has existed for some time, reflective of Malis insistencethat it is not a font of violence like some of its neighbors, notably Algeria. But in a signthat Mali both acknowledges the issue and seeks to address it, the country is rolling outa new development plan, hoping to tackle the problem at its roots.

The dearth of jobs and prospects in the north helps drive the regions twin ills narcotics trafficking and Islamic radicalism. By setting up military barracks, infirmaries,schools, shopping areas and animal markets in 11 northern towns, the Maliangovernment hopes to establish a more visible government presence, foster economicactivity and form a bulwark against lawlessness.

The ultimate goal of the project is to eradicate Al Qaedas affiliates in Mali, saidAdam Tchiam, a leading Malian columnist.


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Mali does not deny that an estimated 200 to 300 fighters from Al Qaeda of the IslamicMaghreb (Maghreb being the Arabic term for west) have found a perch in their desert,although most are believed to be Mauritanians and Algerians. But Mali often depictsthe terrorists as a problem generated elsewhere.

We are hostages to a situation that does not concern us, news reports quotedPresident Amadou Toumani Tour as saying.

Behind the scenes, however, the president has been more forthcoming. In a meetingwith the American ambassador, Gillian A. Milovanovic, and senior American militaryofficers last year, he said the extremists have had difficulty getting their messageacross to a generally reluctant population, according to an embassy cable obtained byWikiLeaks and made available to several news organizations. Still, Mr. Touracknowledged, they have had some success in enlisting disaffected youth to their

ranks.

In recent years, the Qaeda affiliate has left a trail of violence across Mauritania, Niger,Algeria and Mali, taking aim at tourists, expatriate workers, local residents and securityforces. Hostages taken in the porous border regions have been executed or ransomed.Five French and two African workers kidnapped in Niger last September are believedto be held in northern Mali.

The Algerians and some Western diplomats accuse the Malians of being too soft onterrorism, an opinion reflected in the cables obtained by WikiLeaks. But Malis

defenders argue that the regional problem is far larger than any one poor country canaddress.

To that end, Mauritania recently moved uninvited troops permanently across theborder in Mali to eradicate a Qaeda encampment, diplomats said, and Mali did notobject.

For his part, President Tour has been trying to forge a regional consensus on the issue,but the leaked cables and diplomats suggest that Algeria has been reluctant to take part.Algerian officials regularly criticize the presence of French and American trainingforces, saying they constitute another threat.

Malis own plan faces two main problems, one domestic and one foreign. Tuareg rebelsfought the government in the desert for decades, with the 1992 peace treaty specifyingthat the government forces completely withdraw from the north. Deploying them thererisks reigniting a conflict that still simmers.


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Even so, some northerners endorse almost any government action in the harshenvironment, where battling sand alone constitutes a daily struggle.

There are villages that have never seen an administrator, never seen a nurse, neverseen a teacher, said Amboudi Side Ahmed, a businessman in the capital, Bamako, who

was raised in the north. You could stay in a village up there for 10 years and never seea government official.

Then there is the question of whether these northern hubs are even feasible, given thereluctance of foreign aid workers to venture north and finance projects there. Thepresident says the poor protect Al Qaeda because they do not have any means, saidMr. Tchiam, the columnist. Where are the means?

While foreign governments recognize that the north needs development, the lack ofsecurity hampers it. American Embassy personnel, for example, can travel north only

with express permission of the ambassador, which she said she rarely granted.

Development is critical in dealing with the north, Ambassador Milovanovic said, butso long as security is unstable, it is hard to get those projects going.

We cannot just throw money up there.

After her own visits, she has tried to meet local requests by offering training formidwives or supplying four-wheel-drive ambulances. As part of its broader efforts tocounter extremism in northern Mali, the United States also underwrote a series of radio

soap operas whose plot twists emphasized the dangers of extremism.

Beyond that, Washington provides basic military training, sometimes even more basicthan envisioned. An exercise on what to do when the driver of a vehicle is shot deadrevealed a startling truth most Malian soldiers did not know how to drive. Lessonswere instituted. But Malian officials want more.

How many people in the north listen to the radio? That is never going to be strongenough to change their views on A.Q.M.I. or religious fundamentalism, said MohamedBaby, a presidential adviser working on fixing the northern problem, using the initialsof the French name for Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. We need to deal withdevelopment, with the lack of resources.

Qaeda fighters have sometimes ingratiated themselves by paying inflated prices forfood, fuel and other goods. Diplomats believe that the extremists have also informedlocal smugglers that they will pay a premium for kidnapped Westerners.


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Aside from collecting ransoms for hostages, Al Qaeda is believed to be financing itsoperations by exacting tolls from drug smugglers and traffickers in arms, humans andillicit goods. Since at least the 10th century, Timbuktu has been a crossroads for traderoutes across the Sahara, and the modern age is no different.

A series of drug-laden planes make the loop from South America to the Sahel, butnumbers are elusive, said Alexandre Schmidt of the United Nations drug office. In onenotorious 2009 episode, a Boeing 727 believed to have ferried cocaine from LatinAmerica was set on fire after it got stuck in the sand.

Both the drug smugglers and Al Qaeda offer young men a quick route to money andsymbols of prestige like a pickup truck. The government plan has no easy, short-termways to compete, officials concede.

They can recruit young people and undermine both the economy and the religion,

Mr. Baby said of the militants. We have to build up some kind of resistance.------------------Kidnappings Highlight Al-Qaida's Rise In The Sahara (NPR)

Recent U.S. cables leaked by the WikiLeaks website show al-Qaida gaining a foothold inthe Sahel, a lawless region in the Sahara desert, straddling the African nations of Niger,Mali, Mauritania and Algeria. How to counter and curb growing Islamist militancy andbanditry in this vast, poorly policed zone is a priority for governments in West Africa,Washington and beyond.

Motorbikes buzz up and down the streets of the ancient, sandy town of Agadez, theregional capital of northern Niger and the gateway to the desert. The town is largelyempty of tourists who used to flock in their thousands to the historic town, en route toand from the desert.

Mayor Yahaya Namassa Kane partly blames a three-year Tuareg rebellion for theirabsence. But he's also irked by Western travel advisories issued after seven foreignerswere abducted in mid-September in northern Niger.

"Those who kidnapped these people do not come from this region," he said. "They camefrom neighboring countries and took their hostages across the border.

"But I think branding our region, Agadez and northern Niger, as insecure a red-alertzone is a bit much. That's not the case at all."

The militant group al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb claims it snatched the five nationalsfrom France, the former colonial power in Niger, as well as one from Togo and another


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from Madagascar. They were all working at the French Areva uranium mine in Arlit,north of Agadez. The captives are believed to be held in neighboring Mali.

Ambassador Daniel Benjamin, the coordinator for counterterrorism at the U.S. StateDepartment, says the U.S. is concerned by the activity.

"This al-Qaida affiliate and kidnapping activity is very worrisome, because this hasturned into a significant revenue stream, and millions and millions of dollars have beenpaid in ransoms," he said. "And this results in the group being able to keep operating,continue the kidnapping and possibly even move money to either other parts of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb or to other parts of the al-Qaida network."

France responded to the abductions by sending troops to the region. Al-Qaida'snorthwest Africa branch killed a Frenchman in July. Regional governments includingNiger's military junta and the authorities in Mali, Mauritania and Algeria have been

holding emergency meetings to try to step up anti-terrorism coordination.

The Sahel stretches from West Africa all the way to Somalia in the Horn; al-Qaida-linked fighters have raised their profile in this zone over the past year, mounting attackson local armies and seizing hostages.

Regional specialist Bright Simons, director of policy research at the IMANI think tank,says that despite the U.S. military training armies in the Sahara region, the U.S.response is confused.

"Defense, security, rule of law and the rest of it: How does America integrate all thesethings into the agenda that it has?" he said. "It cannot assume that this is something thatthey can win, simply by providing targeted support to certain military forces and therest of it."

Experts warn that though the Islamists number only a few hundred, they have joinedforces with local rebels and bandits to take advantage of the vast and lawless Saharadesert area.

"We know that it is very hard to put groups totally out of business, particularly insparsely inhabited, undergoverned regions," the State Department's Benjamin said."But, having said that, I don't think there's any question but that we can reduce thatkind of breakout threat significantly, and make it a nuisance as opposed to a formidablethreat that threatens really to spill over boundaries."

At a recent peace concert in Agadez, the youth called for their northern desert region tobe given a chance to demonstrate its potential, a view shared by Bess Palmisciano of


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New Hampshire whose NGO, Rain for the Sahel and Sahara, runs community outreachprograms in Niger.

Foreign aid workers were mostly withdrawn from the Agadez area after thekidnappings, but they help provide everything from clean water to medical treatment,

education and farming support for desert nomads and many others.

Palmisciano says that when such relief organizations leave, it's the local people whosuffer most.

"It seems to me this is the very time when we should be making an effort to enter theregion, to help people get back on their feet, to strengthen them, so that they don't feelthey need to take money from someone who says, help us hijack this car or kidnap thisperson," she said.

Palmisciano said it's important to show those who have little, and need much, that theyhave friends in the world who will stand with them against such threats.------------------Desperate act leads to unrest in Tunisia (Associated Press)

TUNIS, Tunisia It started with a young man who set himself on fire, acting out ofdesperation after police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he sold without a permit.

Mohamed Bouazizi was a 26-year-old university graduate without a steady job, tryingto support his family. His self-immolation which left him in intensive care, wrapped

head to toe in white bandages shocked the North African nation and sparkedprotests over unemployment that have led to at least three deaths.

For decades, Tunisia has promoted itself as an Arab world success story, a place wherethe economy is stronger than in neighboring countries, women's rights are respected,unrest is rare and European tourists can take stress-free vacations at beach resorts.

But the recent protests have exposed a side of Tunisia that the country has long tried tohide: the poverty of the countryside, poor job prospects for youths and seethingresentment at the government of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who has ruledTunisia with an iron fist since 1987.

Groups including the International Monetary Fund have praised Tunisia for holding uprelatively well during the global economic crisis, and the country had growth of 3.1percent in 2010, according to government figures.


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Unemployment is the weak spot, at nearly 14 percent last year. The situation is worseoutside the capital and tourist zones, in regions like Sidi Bouzid in the center-west,where Bouazizi lived.

It's also worse for educated youths. In a country where schooling has been emphasized

for decades, 80,000 educated graduates enter the job market every year, and there isn'tenough work for them.

Frederic Volpi, a North Africa scholar, says Tunisia has been "an overachiever in termsof promoting itself" despite its problems of political and civil rights and the economicimbalance between the successful regions and the countryside.

"What is surprising is not so much that we now discover that there are problems inTunisia," said Volpi, a senior lecturer at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. "Thesurprise for people who actually analyze the region is, how come the international

community, the media and observers could be fooled previously by the rhetoric of theTunisian success story?"

Ben Ali's government tolerates little public dissent and has been caught off guard by thediscontent. A U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks called Tunisia a "police state"and says Ben Ali has lost touch with his people.

Ben Ali said the protest violence was manipulated by foreign media and hurt thecountry's image. He replaced the communications minister in a government reshuffle,but retained the interior minister despite opposition calls to oust him.

He also ordered the prime minister to mobilize authorities nationwide for a 6.5 billiondinar ($4.5 billion) plan to create jobs for Tunisians with university diplomas asubstantial sum for a country of only 10 million people.

But the opposition says the government's response has been inadequate and that theprotests are fueled not only by unemployment but by the lack of human rights.

The protests "show a profound crisis and illustrate a pressing need for change thatwould bring a return of confidence to citizens so they can lead lives that are free anddignified in their homeland," said Nejib Chebbi, founder of the Progressive DemocraticParty

The protests started in Sidi Bouzid soon after Bouazizi's Dec. 17 suicide attempt. Policeconfiscated his goods, and an officer slapped him in front of passers-by, his supporterssay. He tried to lodge a complaint, but authorities refused to accept it. Desperate, hedoused himself with gasoline and set himself on fire in public.


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The self-immolation touched off demonstrations in neighboring towns, and later, inother regions.

Police opened fire at one protest, killing an 18-year-old. Another 44-year-old who waswounded by a bullet at the same protest died of his injuries Friday in the hospital, the

man's family said.

At another protest, a 24-year-old jobless protester was electrocuted after announcing hewanted to end his life and mounting a high-voltage electricity pole.

Demonstrators have set police cars ablaze and threw firebombs at official buildings.Lawyers marched in several cities Friday in solidarity with demonstrators.

Opposition politicians say dozens have been arrested.

The unrest has gone with little mention in Tunisia's media, which is heavily controlledby the state.

But there was one surprising and potentially encouraging sign. Private station NessmaTV broadcast a program Thursday about the protest movement a show withoutprecedent in Tunisian history for its treatment of a politically sensitive subject.

In it, Sidi Bouzid's residents spoke of their suffering and complained of corruption,nepotism and impunity of those in power. Mounir Souissi, local reporter for theGerman news agency DPA, called the program "a true

------------------General FAIL: The Militarys Worst Tweeters (Wired)Generals and admirals are powerful people. Their decisions determine the course ofthousands of lives, with aftereffects that can affect millions more. Their budgets candwarf those of entire countries. Their words are parsed like the Talmud for clues aboutthe future of American warfare. And they absolutely cannot tweet.

Twitter may be nearing 200 million users worldwide. But the military has a love-haterelationship with microblogging: The Marines, for instance, banned it last year, alongwith other social networking services. But communications officers are coming aroundto the argument that its a tweet-or-be-tweeted-about information world. If the militarydoesnt use tools like Twitter to spread its message, the argument goes, itll risk losingcontrol of stories and influencing people. Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the JointChiefs of Staff, has become a prolific tweeter as @thejointstaff, weighing in oncontroversies like the repeal of Dont Ask, Dont Tell. The result: more than 32,000followers.


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Mullen, alas, is an exception. Twitter and flag officers still generally go together like oiland water. Its a new medium, after all, and no one says theyve got to go ALL-CAPSEVERYTHING like Kanye or get into tweet-fights with detractors to use the mediumwell. But for some, the growing pains are apparent, even if were not seeing any Direct-Message Fails.

(Full disclosure: The Pentagon asked me a few months ago to share some thoughts about socialmedia at a recent forum.)

Just because you can set up a Twitter account doesnt mean you use it well. Heres ourguide to some of the lamest military Twitter feeds.

1. Adm. James Stavridis. Stavridis, NATOs supreme allied commander and formerSouthern Command leader, is considered by many to be one of the brightest lights inthe military, a well-respected strategic thinker and all-but-certain future Joint Chiefs

chairman. Hes also a technophile he once assured bloggers that he personally repliesto wall posters on his Facebook page and prolific blogger. Heres Stavridis riffing offof Dr. Strangelove to discuss a recent NATO strategic-planning document, for instance.Natural-born tweeter, right?

If only. Stavridis Facebook friends get jokey photos of his wife with a giant fish theycaught in the Caribbean. And @stavridisjs followers get the kind of updates youdexpect from a co-worker whos really excited about the delis new sandwich. Dec. 1:Just briefed SECDEF and headed home to Belgium! Last week, he let us know he hada briefing in Stuttgart, because we were curious. As if hes worried about Mullen or

Defense Secretary Robert Gates looking over his shoulder, Stavridis keeps us updatedon when he meets with, say, the Belgians on Afghanistan. Come on, admiral, youresupposed to be the most social-media-forward officer in the military. More like theseupdates on NATOs help in combating Israels recent forest fires in real time; less Justfinished an off-site with a dozen of my key Admirals and Generals findingefficiencies and interagency integration. You can fit the Strangelove reference into 140characters.

2. Gen. Carter Ham. Is it really necessary to tweet Thanks!!! to everyone who fills outa survey? Ham, the next commander of all U.S. troops in Africa, had the unenviabletask this year of studying troops attitudes to the repeal of Dont Ask, Dont Tell. By allaccounts, he did a thorough and professional job. But if @GenCarterHam was supposedto supplement Hams effort, it didnt exactly take advantage of Twitter. Not only didHam tweet a mere 42 times between March and September, only 12 of those tweetsasked troops to fill out online surveys about the repeal and only half of those actuallygave his tweeps the URL to do so. None used the popular #DADT hashtag to attractnonfollowers attention.


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Instead, Ham gave gold stars to everyone who took the survey, without discussing anyinteresting issues raised. The Coast Guard gave insightful comments and questions,and you dont get to know what they were. Fort Hood gave a lively discussion,making it easy to see why they call it The Great Place! Same with the NavalAcademy: Great insights from staff, faculty and Midshipmen. But, I didnt enjoy

taunting about recent football results. It isnt just Army cadets who need to step theirgame up.

3. Gen. Martin Dempsey. Another missed opportunity. Dempsey commands theArmys Training and Doctrine Command basically the ground services brain. Allthe Armys long-term thinking about the future of land warfare and how to adapt to itruns through TRADOC, as its known. Which is why following @Martin_Dempseyought to be a real-time account of an adaptive Army.

But what do we get? I encourage you to share your stories and photos of Fort

Monroes rich heritage for a new book. Details at: http://bit.ly/ftmonroe Or, inMarch: Outstanding morning of briefers, ideas, and insight at the TRADOC SeniorLeaders Conference here in WIlliamsburg, VA. Maybe you could share with us whatyou learned? Instead, Dempsey prefers to tweet out speeches or guidance that he giveson modernizing the force. Far be it for a blog to deride the use of Twitter for self-promotion, but heres an opportunity for Dempsey to interact with soldiers and learnwhat they think is necessary for the Armys future. Indeed, heres @Martin_Dempseytweeting a speech he gave about getting soldiers to engage the Army on what it meansto be part of a profession, rather than just calling them to do so on Twitter. All told, heasked for soldiers input a grand total of twice, and didnt retweet a single reply. For

TRADOC not to cash in on a transformative technological innovation is just too ironic.

4. Brig. Gen. Steven Spano. The previous tweeters are stingy with their big-think. ButSpano, the communications chief for the Air Forces Air Combat Command, has noshortage of way-out-there-in-the-blue tweets. His feed is actually one of my favorites,because rarely am I sure what @accsix is actually tweeting about. Best practices intheory often result in best intentions in reality, begins Spanos Dec. 22 gem, uniquevariables must drive unique practices in similar business lines. Come again? If thevalue of information at rest greatly diminishes over time, shouldnt our security modelbe more flexible and adaptive? If only, general! Run with that! Lead the way! I promiseitll get you more followers.

5. Gen. Will Fraser. Spanos boss at Air Combat Command seems to view Twitter asprimarily a morale booster. @ACCBoss is a feed filled with you-guys-rule tweets like:Superb visit to 705 CTS [Combat Training Squadron] at Kirtland AFB tremendousprogress has been made with distributed mission operations. And: Promoted MajGenTed Kresge to LtGen he is off to command 13th Air Force we wish him all the bestand thank him for his continued service. All of which is cool. But this is a


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revolutionary moment for air combat, with remotely piloted aircraft playing the rolethat fighter jets once played. Maybe Fraser has some Twitter-friendly perspectives onthat he could share? Theres more to social networking than sharing a reenlistmentceremony at the Talladega Superspeedway.

Bottom line, sirs: Donald Rumsfeld has a better Twitter feed than you do right now.You going to let that stand?------------------Pentagon And NATO Apply Afghanistan-Pakistan War Model To Africa

(OpEdNews.com)The New Year began with three North Atlantic Treaty Organization soldiers killed inAfghanistan and 20 people, all portrayed as militants, killed in four American missilestrikes in northwest Pakistan. The third drone missile attack killed four peopleattempting to rescue and remove the bodies of the victims of the first, a technique usedby the U.S. and NATO in their war against Yugoslavia in 1999.


The West's war in Afghanistan and Pakistan is currently the longest, largest

africom related news clips january 3, 2011

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