Africa’s TurnHow demography, policy and technology

are transforming life prospects for African women and children

COSBAE / CWAE Luncheon

at the AAEA Annual Meetings in Seattle

23 August 2012

William A. MastersDepartment of Food and Nutrition Policy, Tufts University

www.nutrition.tufts.edu · sites.tufts.edu/willmasters

What’s behind the headlines?

Africa’s poverty rates rose only recently, and turned down over the past decade

Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.

In the 1980s & ‘90s, Africa

became the world’s most

impoverished region

Since 2000, African poverty has

declined as it did earlier in Asia

There are limited data and wide variation but many signs of improvement

Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.

The available surveys showwidespread poverty reduction …but not everywhere!

Child nutrition has also begun to improve in some African countries

National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)Selected countries with repeated national surveys

Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at http://www.unscn.org. 

Somalia is an exception, its

malnutrition worsened before the

2011 famine

National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)Selected countries with repeated national surveys

Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at http://www.unscn.org. 

...although undernutrition levels and trends still vary widely across Africa

The Sahel remains a danger zone

Some countries are doing very well

Source: CG Victora, M de Onis, PC Hallal, M Blössner and R Shrimpton, “Worldwide timing of growth faltering: revisiting implications for interventions.” Pediatrics, 125(3, Mar. 2010):e473-80.

Extreme under-nutrition occurs in infancy

Mean weight-for-height z-scores in 54 countries, 1994-2007, by region (1-59 mo.)

and is less bad in Africa than in Asia

Despite Africa’s greater poverty,Asian infants remain more malnourished

Weight loss relative to height occurs when breastfeeding becomes insufficient, but infants cannot yet rely on the family diet

In Asia, where undernutrition was worst, we’ve seen >20 years of improvement

National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)Selected countries with repeated national surveys

Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at http://www.unscn.org. 

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Female - World Male - World Female - SoAsiaMale - SoAsiaFemale - SSAfricaMale - SSAfrica

Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.

Africa has now resumed rapid progress, but faster for males than females

(unlike South Asia, whose gender gap has normalized)

UN estimates of life expectancy at birth by sex and region, 1950-2010

Life expectancy at birth helps track lifelong prospects & living conditions

Years

1950

-195

5

1955

-196

0

1960

-196

5

1965

-197

0

1970

-197

5

1975

-198

0

1980

-198

5

1985

-199

0

1990

-199

5

1995

-200

0

2000

-200

5

2005

-201

0-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5WorldSSAfricaSoAsia

Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.

By this measure, South Asia now has

less sex discriminationthan Sub-Saharan Africa!

Difference in life expectancy at birth by region (F-M), 1950-2010

Life expectancy at birth also helps track change in gender relations

Below zero = Boys live longer than girls

Years(Female – Male)

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-490

50

100

150

200

250

300

SSAfrica 1995-2000

SSAfrica 2000-2005

SSAfrica 2005-2010

S Asia 1995-2000

S Asia 2000-2005

S Asia 2005-2010

World 1995-2000

World 2000-2005

World 2005-2010

Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.

African fertility could fall very fast if its >25-year-olds become like Asia’s

Age-specific fertility by region, 1995-2010 (births per 1,000 women)

One gender-relations puzzle is thehigh fertility rate of African women >25

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

WorldSSAfricaSoAsia

Africa had the world’s most severe demographic burden by far, over 90

dependents per 100 adults for 25 years

Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).

Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2030

The high level and slow fall of fertility rates, given a child-survival baby boom,

created Africa’s huge demographic burden

…now still high but falling fast (a "demographic gift")

2012

1950

-195

5

1960

-196

5

1970

-197

5

1980

-198

5

1990

-199

5

2000

-200

5

2010

-201

5

2020

-202

5

2030

-203

5

2040

-204

5

2050

-205

5-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

SS Africa

World

So Asia

Below zero=more land/farmer

Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.

Was over 2% annual growth for 25 years!

…now still high but falling fast

UN estimates of rural population growth rates by region, 1950-2050

Africa’s demography was hard on farmers, but the burden is getting lighter

2012

An underlying cause of Africa’s impoverishment in the 1970s-1990s

was a sharp fall in land area per farmer

Reprinted from Robert Eastwood, Michael Lipton and Andrew Newell (2010), “Farm Size”, chapter 65 in Prabhu Pingali and Robert Evenson, eds., Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume 4, Pages 3323-3397. Elsevier.

Land available per farm household (hectares)

Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural Research and Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.

Africa’s green revolution is at least 20 years behind Asia’s

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5WorldSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1961-2012

Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 9 Aug. 2012. Results shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.

Africa’s green revolution has begun

Foreign aid for agriculture has begun to recover after being sharply cut in 1985-99

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

AgricultureHealthTotal (right axis)

United States ODA commitments for health, agriculture and total, 1967-2010

Source: Calculated from OECD (2012), Official Bilateral Commitments by Sector, downloaded 8 August 2012 (http://stats.oecd.org/qwids). Agriculture includes forestry and fisheries. Values are billions of constant US dollars at 2010 prices (both axes).

Many African governments are now focusing more on agriculture

Slide is courtesy of Prabhu Pingali, Greg Traxler and Tuu-Van Nguyen (2011), “Changing Trends in the Demand and Supply of Aid for Agriculture Development and the Quest for Coordination,” at the AAEA, July 24–26, 2011.

Africa’s challenges are extremely diverse…and rapidly changing

Conclusion: it is now Africa’s turn to succeed

• African poverty worsened but is now improving– A major cause was persistent high fertility despite child survival gains,

and hence falling land available per farmer;

– Appropriate new farm technologies are finally arriving, so crop yields, output and input use are now rising

• Investment in agriculture and nutrition was cut to near zero, but is now being restored– Investment in agriculture was key to cutting Asian poverty, then seen

as no longer needed for Africa in the 1980s and 1990s;

– Africa is now poised for rapid uptake of new technologies, with many opportunities for sustained improvements

• “Africa” is 55 countries, with many diverse challenges, but the odds of success are good

Thank you!

www.nutrition.tufts.edu · sites.tufts.edu/willmasters

What drives change?

Food

composition

Everythingis inter-

connected

Development outcomes Food supplementation

Technological change

Agriculture and

food systems

Food

ava

ilabi

lity

and food assistance

Education and

behavior change

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Total

Urban

Rural

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,400,000.0

1,600,000.0

1,800,000.0

2,000,000.0

Total

Urban

Rural

Population by principal residence, 1950-2050

World (total) Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision , released April 2010 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Downloaded 7 Nov. 2010.

Urbanization eventually employs all new workers so land per farmer can rise

Worldwide, rural population growth has almost stopped

…in Africa that won’t happen until the 2050s

20122012

Africa still has bothrural & urban growth