african oil and gas supply potential
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African Oil and Gas Supply Potential. Lauren Mayne Energy Information Administration. Oil and Gas Roundtable ABA Spring Conference. April 17, 2009 Washington, DC. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type. 33%. History. Projections. 29%. 36%. Liquids. 24%. 27%. Natural Gas. Coal. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
African Oil and GasSupply Potential
Lauren MayneEnergy Information Administration
April 17, 2009
Washington, DC
Oil and Gas Roundtable ABA Spring Conference
2
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
History Projections
Source: EIA, IEO2008
36%
23%
6%
8%
29%
33%
24%
8%
6%
27%
3
Africa’s Share of the World Liquids Market
Source: EIA, Oil & Gas Journal
Proved Reserves of Crude Oil, 2009
Production of Conventional Liquids, 2007
4
Country Share of Africa
Source: EIA, Oil & Gas Journal
Proved Reserves of Crude Oil, 2009
Production of Conventional Liquids, 2007
5
Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Nigeria
Source: EIA
6
Events and Potential: Nigeria
• Recent Events– Attacks in deepwater
• Downside Risks– Violence in the Delta could continue and expand into deepwater
locations– Financial management at NNPC could deteriorate further
• Upside Potential– Nigerian government might implement policies that reduce
violence in the Delta
7
Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Algeria
Source: EIA
8
Events and Potential: Algeria
• Recent Events– Gas discoveries and downstream projects
• Downside Risks– Government could further discourage foreign investment, as it
did with the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law– Sonatrach’s ability to invest in production maintenance and
expansion could be hindered due to competing government expenditure needs
• Upside Potential– Government could reverse nationalization tendencies expressed
in the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law
9
Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Angola
Source: EIA
10
Events and Potential: Angola
• Recent Events– More discoveries of oil resources in the deepwater
• Downside Risks– Increased pressure to adhere to OPEC quotas and cuts
• Upside Potential– Possibility of sub-salt oil resources– Continued loose abidance to OPEC quotas
11
Conventional Liquids Production in Three Cases: Libya
Source: EIA
12
Events and Potential: Libya
• Recent Events– Discoveries in Area 47– Push for use of domestic workforce
• Downside Risks– New requirements to use domestic engineers could exceed
IOC’s abilities to train them and lead to progressively worst reservoir management
• Upside Potential– Transfer of skills and technologies to Libya could advance
NOC’s capabilities and encourage continued IOC & NOC partnerships
13
Conclusions
• African production is concentrated in a few key countries
• Africa has the oil resources to support future production growth
• Future production will depend largely on above ground factors, such as fiscal regimes and legislation
14
Additional Slides
• Country Sheets
15
Algeria
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Government could further discourage foreign
investment, as it did with the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law• Sonatrach’s ability to invest in production maintenance
and expansion could be hindered due to competing government expenditure needs
• Government could reverse nationalization tendencies expressed in the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dri
llin
g In
dex
to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Do
llars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Total Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0100200
300400500600
700800900
Th
ou
san
d B
arre
ls p
er d
ay
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathf inder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOC
Foreign NOC
16
Nigeria
Downside Risks & Upside Potential• Violence in the Delta could continue and expand into
deepwater locations• Financial management at NNPC could deteriorate
further
• Nigerian government might implement policies that reduce violence in the Delta
Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Dri
llin
g In
dex
to
199
5
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Do
llars
per
Bar
rel
Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price
Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007
Expected Production
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2006 2015 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Source: EIA, AEO2009
2008 Oil Production by Company
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
Th
ou
san
d B
arre
ls p
er d
ay
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathf inder 2009
Domestic NOC
IOCForeign NOC