africa’s unfolding agri-food system transformation...7 unmistakable signs of agri-food system...
TRANSCRIPT
T.S.JayneandHolgerKray
WorldBankSeniorLeadershipTechnicalMeeting25January,2018
Paris,France
AFRICA’SUNFOLDINGAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATION
7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2
• 35%growthininflation-adjustedrealp.c.incomesinSSA,2000-2014
– Doubling inmanycountries
• Povertyratesfallingfortheregion
– %ofpeoplelivingonlessthan$1.90adaydeclinedfrom54%in
1990to41%in2013(Barrettetal.,2017)
3
RISINGREALINCOMES
7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
4
Annualinflation-adjustedagriculturalgrowthrates,2000-2016:
• Sub-SaharanAfrica: +4.62%
• LatinAmerica: +2.49%
• EastAsia: +3.07%
• SouthAsia: +2.96%
• World: +2.75%
5
IMPRESSIVEAGRICULTURALGROWTH
AGRICULTURALVALUEADDEDANNUALGROWTHRATES2000-2016(constantlocalcurrencyunits)
6Source: World Development Indicators, 2017
%growthra
te
7Source:IFADRuralDevelopmentReport,2016;WorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase,2016.
RELATIONSHIPBETWEENAGRICULTURALGROWTHANDPOVERTYREDUCTION
7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
8
Farmsize Numberoffarms(%oftotal)%growthin
numberoffarmsbetweeninitialand
latestyear
%oftotaloperatedlandonfarmsbetween0-100
ha
2008 2012 2008 2012
0– 5ha 5,454,961(92.8) 6,151,035(91.4) 12.8 62.4 56.3
5– 10ha 300,511(5.1) 406,947(6.0) 35.4 15.9 18.0
10– 20ha 77,668(1.3) 109,960(1.6) 41.6 7.9 9.7
20– 100ha 45,700(0.7) 64,588(0.9) 41.3 13.8 16.0
Total 5,878,840(100%) 6,732,530(100%) 14.5 100.0 100.0
- 6.1%
+6.1%
CHANGESINFARMSTRUCTUREINTANZANIA(2008-2012)LSMS/NATIONALPANELSURVEYS
Source:GhanaGLSSSurveys,1992,2013
GhanaNumberoffarms %growthinnumber
offarms %oftotalcultivatedarea
1992 2013 1992 2013
0-2ha 1,458,540 1,582,034 8.5 25.1 14.2
2-5ha 578,890 998,651 72.5 35.6 31.3
5-10ha 116,800 320,411 174.3 17.2 22.8
10-20ha 38,690 117,722 204.3 11.0 16.1
20-100ha 18,980 37,421 97.2 11.1 12.2
>100ha -- 1,740 - -- 3.5
Total 2,211,900 3,057,978 38.3 100 100
51%oftotalfarm-land
CHANGESINFARMSTRUCTUREINGHANA(1992-2013)
11Source:NPS2009,2011,2013,2015
MEDIUMSCALEFARMS’SHAREOFTOTALCROPVALUEINTANZANIA–14%TO30%IN6YEARS
7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
12
• 800% increase in the volumes and value of food marketed through
rural-to-urban value chains since 2000 (Tschirley et al, 2017)
• Underlying drivers:
– rapidly rising urban demand
– high global food prices
– agricultural sectoral reforms of 1990s
13
RAPIDINVESTMENTINAGRICULTURALVALUECHAINSBYAFRICANENTREPRENEURS
7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
14
RAPIDDECLINEINSHAREOFLABORFORCEINFARMING(INFULL-TIMEEQUVALENTS)
Source:Yeboah andJayne(2018)
Source:Yeboah andJayne(2018)
FARMINGISTHESINGLELARGESTEMPLOYERINMOSTCOUNTRIESDESPITEDECLININGJOBSHARE
Source:YeboahandJayne(2018)
MAJORITYOFOFF-FARMAGRI-FOODSYSTEMJOBSINCOMMERCE,MUCHLESSINAGRO-PROCESSING
7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
6. Greatervibrancyofagriculturalfactorsmarkets
18
Inherited 33.17%
Gifted 10.33%
Purchased 29.63%
Borrowed 11.09%
Rented 9.63%
Other(squatting/clearedland/allocated) 6.16%
Observations 4,291
Inherited/gifted38.34%
Purchased36.46%
Borrowed6.90%
Rented7.00%
Othermodeofacquisition11.30%
PERCENTOFTOTALFARMLANDAREA
Source:LSMS/NationalPanelSurvey2014/15
PERCENTOFPLOTS
19
MODEOFACQUISITIONOFALLFARMPLOTSINTANZANIA
20
Source:VanderWesthuisenetal,2018,basedonTradeMapdatabase
NOMINALVALUEOFTRACTORIMPORTSTOSUB-SAHARANAFRICA(EXCL.SOUTHAFRICA),2001-2015
21
Source:VanderWesthuisenetal.,2018,basedonNPS/LSMSsurveys
%OFFARMHOUSEHOLDSRENTINGTRACTORSERVICESINTANZANIA,2009VS2015
22Source:VanderWesthuisen,2018,basedonLSMS/NPSsurveys
%OFFARMHOUSEHOLDSRENTINGTRACTORSERVICESINTANZANIA,2009VS2015
23Source:LSMS2009,2011,2013,2015
MEANLANDPRICESINTANZANIA:+53.9%INREALTERMSIN6YEARS
Sources:LSMS-ISAandIHSforlandandwages;FEWSNETforureaandmaize
OUTPUTANDFACTORPRICEINDICES,RURALMALAWI,2004-2013
7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
6. Greatervibrancyofagriculturalfactorsmarkets
7. ImprovedmarketaccessconditionsforAfricanfarmers
25
Source:SitkoandJayne,2014
FARMERREPORTEDNUMBERSOFTRADERSBUYINGMAIZEINTHEIRVILLAGE,2014
27
Distancefromfarmto:
Percentileoffarmhouseholddistribution
Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 95th
-------------- kmdistance--------------
Nearestdistricttown(km)
37.1 6.0 13.0 30.0 58.0 94.0
Pointofmaizesaletotrader(km)
Source:ChapotoandJayne,2014,basedon2014CropForecastSurvey,n=13,859farmhouseholds
MARKETACCESSCONDITIONS,ZAMBIA,2014
28
Distancefromfarmto:
Percentileoffarmhouseholddistribution
Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 95th
-------------- kmdistance--------------
Nearestdistricttown(km)
37.1 6.0 13.0 30.0 58.0 94.0
Pointofmaizesaletotrader(km)
6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 58.0
Source:ChapotoandJayne,2014,basedon2014CropForecastSurvey,n=13,859farmhouseholds
MARKETACCESSCONDITIONS,ZAMBIA,2014
29Source:ChamberlinandJayne,2012
CHANGEINFARMHOUSEHOLDS’DISTANCETOSERVICESINRURALKENYA,1997-2010
1. Futureaggrowthneededfromhighervalueperhectareandperlaborer,notjustareaexpansion
30
MAJORCHALLENGESTOBETACKLED
31
AFRICA’SAGRICULTURALGROWTHSTILLRELIESMAINLYONCROPLANDEXPANSION,NOTENOUGHONPRODUCTIVITYGROWTH
Source:EconomicResearchService,https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity/
1. Futureaggrowthneededfromhighervalueperhectareandperlaborer,notjustareaexpansion
2. Land/soildegradation– willmakecontinuedagriculturaltransformationmoredifficultunless
addressed
• Proximatecauses:lowadoptionof“climatesmart”and“sustainable”landmanagement
practices
• Underlyingculprits– ineffectivenationalagR&Dandextensionsystems
3. The“employmentchallenge”:eachyear,roughly17millionyoungAfricansenterworkingage
32
MAJORCHALLENGESTOBETACKLED
62%<25yearsold
LOOMINGEMPLOYMENTCHALLENGEINSSA
YOUTHLIVELIHOODSOPTIONS
62%<25years
40%Non-farm
60%Farming
Pulledoutofagriculture• Injobswithhighbarrierstoentry• Post-secondaryeducation• Investedinskills
80%
YOUTHLIVELIHOODSOPTIONS
62%<25years
40%Non-farm
60%Farming
10%Successfulnon-farm
30%Strugglingnon-farm
10%Successfulfarming
50%Strugglingfarm
70%Successfulnon-farm
30%Successfulfarming
Policies• Inclusiveeconomic
growth• Infrastructure• R&D• Education
– Post-secondary
Policies• R&D/ext.• Landaccess• Finance• Infrastructureand
investmentsalongvaluechain– Irrigation– Roads– Electricity
STRUCTURALTRANSFORMATIONPATHWAY
1. Africa’slaborforcediversifyingawayfromsubsistencefarming
2. Shareoflaborforceinnon-farmemploymentupsharplysince2000
3. Governancehasimproved,albeitunevenly.Daysofhyperinflation,blackmarketexchangerates
andmacroturmoillargelyover.
4. GreaterproportionofyoungAfricansacquiringsecondaryanduniversityeducations
5. PercapitaGDPincreasedbetween2000and2014by35%inrealterms.SSAhasbeenworld’s
second-fastestgrowingeconomy,exceededonlybyAsia
6. +4.6%inflation-adjustedp.a.aggrowthbetween2000-2016(WB,2017)vs.worldavg.of2.75%
7. Womenhavebecomeconsiderablymoreactiveinlabormarketsandbetterabletoholdstocksof
wealthontheirown
8. Povertyratesdeclinedsignificantlysince2000
9. Nutritionalindicatorsalsoshowgradualbutclearimprovement
36
SUMMARY:UNMISTAKABLEPROGRESSINSSA
T.S.JayneandHolgerKray
WorldBankSeniorLeadershipTechnicalMeeting25January,2018
Paris,France
AFRICA’SUNFOLDINGAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATION
38
Source:UN2013
SUBSAHARANAFRICA:ONLYREGIONOFTHEWORLDWHERERURALPOPULATIONCONTINUESTORISEPAST2050
Source:YeboahandJayne(2018)
AGRICULTURALEMPLOYMENTSHAREINTOTALNUMBEROFJOBSANDINFULL-TIMEEQUIVALENTS(FTE)