africa’s exports - world...
TRANSCRIPT
Africa’s Exports
Shanta Devarajan*World Bank
*with the assistance of Yutaka Yoshino
I. The Problem
Africa’s Share of World Trade is Falling
Exports and Incomes in Mauritius
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Exports
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Incomes
1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Income per Capita Exports per Capita
Incomes per capita are in 1996 PPP$ from PENN World Tables.Exports per capita are in 1995 US$ from World Bank Development Indicators
Mauritius Incomes and Exports
Figure Apparel exports to US from SSA, $Mn
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Rest of SSAMauritiusSACUMadagascarKenya
Source: UN Comtrade
Other African countries are following Mauritius
Exports are important …
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
E. Asiaand
Pacific
ECA LatinAmerica &Caribbean
MNA S. Asia SSA
Non-oil export share of GDP (%)
1983-19851993-19952003-2005
Source: IMF WEO database.Note: export shares are unweighted average.
…but are growing slowly…
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000~2005
Expo
rts
grow
th a
nnua
l %, s
impl
e av
erag
e
Africa Average Africa top performers Asia top performers China
Creating an export push
…and are declining in importance for Africa’s top performers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000~2005
Expo
rt as
% o
f GD
P
Africa average Africa top performers Asia top performers China
Africa’s exports remain concentrated
Source: World Bank World Trade Indicators
Concentration and Diversification of Export: 2000-2004 Average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Europe and CentralAsia
East Asia- Pacific South Asia Latin America andCaribbean
Middle East andNorth Africa
Sub Saharian Africa0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Export Concentration Index (0-100)left axis
Share of Top 5 Products in Total Exports (%) left axis
No. of Exported Product Categoriesright axis
II. What do we know about solutions?
• Not much– Very little plant-level panel data (except for
RPED and repeated ICAs) • What we know about firms
– Large firms export more
Exporting and firm size
0 20 40 60 80
TANZANIA
SOUTH AFRICA
NIGERIA
KENYA
GHANA
SmallMedium
Large
MediumLarge
SmallMedium
Large
SmallMedium
Large
SmallMedium
Large
Percentage of Firms Exporting to Africa and Outside of Africa
To Africa To Outside of Africa
Changes in the Size Distribution of Manufacturing Firms in Ghana
II. What do we know about solutions?
• Not much– Very little plant-level panel data (except for RPED,
repeated ICAs) • What we know about firms
– Large firms export more– Foreign-owned firms export more (but very few of
them, compared to large number of domestic, informal firms)
– Positive correlation between export orientation and productivity (self-selection or learning?)
II. What do we know about solutions?
• Behind-the-border factors– Trade facilitation
Factory floor costs compare well with India & China
$0.16 $0.18 $0.12 $0.16 $0.19
$0.65
$0.17$0.29
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
Madagasca
rKen
yaGhana
Mozambiq
ueLeso
thoSouth
Afric
aIndia
EPZ ChinaDirect cost per male shirt
The time to clear goods at port is several days in many countries in Africa
02468
101214161820
Eritrea
Ethiop
iaMoza
mbique
Nigeria
Uganda
Zambia
Kenya
Morocco
China
India
Days to clear imports, median Days to clear exports, median
II. What do we know about solutions?
• Behind-the-border factors– Trade facilitation– Domestic supply constraints
Access to electricity by region
24.7%
40.8%
86.6% 87.3%90.4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Acce
ss to
ele
ctric
ity (%
of p
opul
atio
n)
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Latin America & CaribbeanEast Asia & Pacific Middle East & North Africa
Data sources: The World Bank WDI database, April 2006.
Africa lags in access to infrastructure
Building the private sector
Africa lags other regions in the cost of doing business …
Data sources: World Bank Doing Business Database as of November 2006..*Normalized ranking from Doing Business 2006.** Ranking from Doing Business 2007.
Ease of doing business rank, Simple average by region
132
7281
92 92102
131
74 7784
98105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sub SaharanAfrica
East Asia &Pacific
East Europeand Central
Asia
Latin Americaand Caribbean
Middle Eastand North
Africa
South Asia
2005*
2006**
Average Ranking of Doing Business, the lower the better
Alleviating domestic constraints could increase exports in African, particularly
for manufactured products
15.8
1.9 2.3
17.1
2.2
15.3
02468
1012141618
Export CustomsProcedures
Internet Access PowerInfrastructure
All Mechandise ExportsManufactured Exports
Predicted Increase in Bilateral Exports (%) of
Africa
10% improvement in Exporter Country in Africa
Source: Africa’s Silk Road (2007)
II. What do we know about solutions?
• Behind-the-border factors– Trade facilitation– Domestic supply constraints
• Geography and institutions– Affect number of exporters rather than how
much each exporter sells in foreign markets (Elbadawi, Mengistae and Zeufack, 2006)