africa: resource competition and conflict antony goldman, santa cruz, march 2008
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AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
Antony Goldman, Santa Cruz, March 2008
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• Historical context
• External environmentTechnologyStrategic issuesEmerging players
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• US oil reserves 21.8bn barrelsUS gas reserves 204.4 trillion cubic feet
• Nigeria oil reserves 36.2bn bblsNigeria gas reserves 184.6 tcf
• Algeria oil reserves 12.3bn bblsAlgeria gas reserves 161.7tcf
• Venezuela oil reserves 80.1bn bbls
• Venezuela gas reserves 152.3tcf
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• OPEC/AFRICA OIL EXPORTStotal of 6.3m b/d in 2006 of which:
• 3.3m b/d to north America
• 2.5m b/d to Europe
• 0.3m b/d to Asia Pacific
AFRICA RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• World Bank in 2006 estimates India imported 50 per cent of petroleum from Africa, principally Nigeria.
• China imports 25 per cent of crude oil requirement from Africa, increasing at 30 per cent a year. Imports principally from Angola, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea and Congo.
• Source: Africa's Silk Road World Bank 2006
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
Asia’s oil interests in Africa
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• Financing and loans
• ‘Soft’ power
• Defence co-operation
• Construction and infrastructure
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
NigeriaOil discovered in 1955Produces 2.1m b/dResource control issues in the Niger DeltaDeepwater development – political, securityNew players – independents, indigenous,
AsianProposed reform agenda
AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
Outlook:
A more competitive market
Comparative advantage/ language, history
Leveraging governance issues
Africa’s choice