Climate resilient maize for Africa

Africa Food Security Conference 2015, Nairobi

Biswanath Das, Jill Cairns, Mainassara Zaman-Allah, Tsedeke Abate, BM Prasanna

CIMMYT

(International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center)

Current Maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa

(world average = 4.92 t ha-1)

No data <0.5 0.5-0.9 1.0 -1.9 2.0 -2.9 3.0 -3.9 4.0 -4.9 >5.0

Maize yields (t ha-1)

Data source: FAO, 2013

Source: J. Cairns

Maize yields in Africa have doubled in the last half century. But they are not keeping up with the rest of the tropics.

Current limitations to maize

productivity in SSA

Source: Fischer R.A., Byerlee D. and Edmeades G.O. 2014.

Cairns et al. submitted

Drought

Source: World Bank 2012

FAOSTAT

• SSA has 10% of global population,

0.8% of total fertilizer consumption

• Total fertilizer use in sub-Saharan

Africa decreased by 11 percent from

1997/98 to 2007/08

• African farmers pay 2-6 times the

world average price for fertilizers

Farmers lack access to affordable inputs. Farmers are risk averse in rainfed production systems – if there is risk of drought, farmer won’t invest in fertilizer.

Poor Soils

Future maximum

temperatures (2050)

Cairns et al. 2012a

Future rainfall (2050)

Increase in temperature of 2 °C would result in a greater reduction in maize yields

than a decrease in precipitation by 20 % (Lobell and Burke, 2010)

Cairns et al. 2013

Future Climate Scenarios

Tesfaye et al. 2014

Waha et al. 2013

Future Climate Scenarios and impact on maize yields

Seasons will get shorter, hotter, drier. Overall maize production will decline significantly particularly in southern and western Africa.

Breeding Climate Resilient Maize

• There are too many moving parts/unknowns to

accurately forecast a future maize environment or

maize product profile.

• New diseases (eg MLN) and stresses are constantly

emerging that throw breeding pipelines off balance.

• The most effective way to prepare for future

environments is to reduce breeding cycling time and

deliver improved products in real time.

Reducing maize breeding cycle

time

• Regional partnerships and collaborations

• Improved breeding methods

• Faster deployment of improved varieties

Collaborative Regional and Global Networks

30,000 accessions in the

CIMMYT genebank –

enormous source of

genetic diversity.

CIMMYT

NARS

• CIMMYT and it’s partners are operating the largest tropical drought and low N screening networks globally right here in SSA.

• Over 160,000 drought and low N plots. • Networks involve both private and public sector partners who have access to multi-location testing

options • Institutions are sharing germplasm

CIMMYT’s maize research

Maize stress phenotyping network

Improved Breeding Methodology

• Exploit genetic diversity

• Increase germplasm exchange

Several released TWC Hybrids comprised of Elite, Africa adapted lines x Tropical lowland NUE+MLN donors from Central America

Over 30,000 accessions in the CIMMYT gene bank

• Adopt new technologies

– Marker assisted selection

• For traits that are hard and expensive to phenotype

• Phenotyping costs are now higher than genotyping costs / seed chipping

• Genotyping and data processing technology is advancing rapidly

– Doubled haploids

• Develop homozygous inbred

lines in 3 cycles

• Increase probability of

recovering desired haplotypes

• Better QC for seed industry

– Genetically modified crops?

Improved Breeding Methodology

Variability obtained using DH technology (NUE x QPM cross)

Improved Phenotyping

• Getting accurate, high throughput data faster and cheaper

in order to make better breeding decisions.

Canopy temperature Response to VPD

NDVI Lodging

IR thermography to assist selection for drought and heat stress tolerance

38°C 36°C

Tassel Temp affects Pollen viability which affects Yield.

Unmanned aerial vehicles

Variation in canopy temperature

Variation in tassel temperature

Source: M. Zaman Allah

Faster Variety Deployment Table:Top five maize varieties grown in selected countries in SSA during the 2013 main crop season and their coverage and year of release (after Abate, unpublished)

Country Varieties (descending order of area coverage)

Plots covered

(%)

Year of release

Weighted average age (all varieties)

Oldest Latest

Ethiopia BH540‡, Shone‡, Agar‡, Melkassa2†, BH660‡

65.6 1993 2008 13.5

Kenya SC Duma43‡, DHO2‡, WS505, DK8031‡, DHO4‡

47.6 1995 2004 13.2

Tanzania Staha†, Situka1†, DK8031‡, Pan67†, TMV1†

38.7 1983 2002 17.0

Uganda Longe5†, Longe 10H‡, Longe4†, Longe 6H‡, Longe 7H‡

74.6 2000 2009 13.4

Angola Branco Redondo§, Amarelo§, Catete§, Nanhala§, Vermelho§

74.0 1957 1967 33.3

Malawi Kanyani‡, Pan53‡, Makangala‡, Mkango‡, ZM309†

65.2 1999 2009 10.3

Mozambique Pan67‡, Pan53‡, Matuba†, SC513‡, DK 8031‡

27.8 1982 2011 11.9

Zambia Pan53‡, MRI624‡, SC513‡, ZMS606‡, MRI634‡

40.9 1999 2006 12.8

Zimbabwe SC513‡, Pan413‡, PHB3253‡, SC403‡, SC627‡

79.0 1993 1999 16.9

Benin Faaba†, TZPB SR†, 2000 Syn EE W†, DMR ESR W/QPM†, TZE Comp 3DT†

11.3 1989 2010 10.4

Ghana Obatanpa†, Aburotia†, Dobidi†, Laposta†, Golden Crystal†

48.2 1972 1992 24.0

Mali Sotubaka†, Dembanyuma†, Nieleni†, Zangreni†, Jorobana†

47.0 1985 2009 17.9

Nigeria Oba Super 9‡, EVDT 99†, 3DT Com†, Comp5†, Sammaz27†

22.7 1976 2009 12.6

Averages 49.4 26.6 10.3 15.0

‡ = Hybrid † = OPV § = Local/traditional variety

Source: Tsedeke Abate (DTMA project leader), 2015.

10 years (NPT to Comm)

3.5 years (NPT to Comm)

6 years (NPT to Comm)

Keys to Deployment: • Favorable Policies • Private Sector

Involvement (Over 120 maize seed companies in Africa)

Potential impact of drought tolerant seed

Shiferaw et al. 2014

Cairns et al. submitted

Acknowledgements

Thank you

for your

interest!