africa: a snapshot of key infrastructure development plans on the continent
TRANSCRIPT
Infrastructure in Africa
“A Snapshot of Key Infrastructure Development Plans on
the Continent”
Presenter
Kudzanayi Bangure
Programme Manager – Infrastructure Division
2
Functional Expertise
• Experience in strategy consulting and market research, which include over 30 significant market research and
growth consulting projects. Particular expertise in:
− Local and global consulting engagements with experience in the following
− Commercial due diligence analysis
− Strategic analysis of new markets
− Development of market entry strategies
− Geographic expansion strategies
− Analysis of emerging markets
− Opportunity analysis
− Analysis of Infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa
Industry Expertise
Long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Executives.
Experience base covering a broad range of sectors which include the following
African Infrastructure (Energy, Telecommunications, Transportation and Water Infrastructure)
Built environment (Construction, Green Buildings)
Building Technologies (Lighting, HVAC, Security, BMS, Facilities Management)
Automotive & Transportation
What I bring to the Team
• Strategic Thinking
• Project and Team Management
• Client and Relationship Management
• Market Analysis
• Competitor Analysis
• Customer Analysis
Education
• Bachelor of Commerce in Economics and Information Systems from Rhodes University
• Honours in Financial Analysis & Portfolio Management from the University of Cape Town
Kudzanayi Bangure
Kudzanayi BangureProgramme Manager
African Infrastructure,
Automotive & Transportation
Frost & Sullivan Africa
South Africa, Cape Town
• Econometric Analysis
• Economic Modelling
• Financial Analysis & Modelling
3
Contents
Section Slide Number
Africa Infrastructure Overview 3
Road Infrastructure Analysis 7
Rail Infrastructure Analysis 8
Energy Infrastructure Analysis 9
Mega Infrastructure Projects 10
Conclusions 12
Contact Details 14
Africa – Key Infrastructure Statistics
$604 billionAnnual spending
needed for the next five years to
upgrade, rehabilitate and expand Africa’s
infrastructure
$440 billionIs the current spending on
infrastructure development in Sub-
Saharan Africa
% of investment in Sub-Saharan
Africa on transport
infrastructure
31%
70%In land-locked
countries, transport accounts for 70%
Is the number of
countries in Africa which have regular
power outages
30
South Africa is currently
investing $145 billion in
infrastructure
$145
billion
50 years It will take 50 years for most
countries in Africa to reach
universal access to modern
infrastructure
50%Infrastructure
development has been responsible
for more than half of Africa’s
improved economic
performance
21%% of
investment in Sub-Saharan
Africa on energy and
power infrastructure
of the value of exported
goods
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: World Bank and Frost and
Sullivan analysis
5
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
Infrastructure Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
< 0.5
0.5 – 1.0
1.0 – 5.0
5.0 – 10.0
0.0 – 15.0
15.0
Transport
$136 billion
Energy
$93 billion
Telecoms
$17 billionWater
$15 billionSocial
$43 billion
Legend:
Investment ($ billion)
Total investment amounts to
$440 billion
Number of high value
projects, many valued
>$1 billion
Most projects
valued < $100
million
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
6
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Transport
Energy
Telecoms
Water
Social
Investment ($ billion)
Se
cto
r
South Africa Nigeria Mozambique Tanzania Ghana
Zambia Botswana Namibia Uganda Kenya
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
$440 billion is being invested in infrastructure development in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Nigeria and Mozambique
account for 8.9% and
7.7% of infrastructure
investment
South Africa is the leader in infrastructure development on the continent, investing $145 billion
$230 billion will be invested in the
transport and energy and power sectors
(Includes housing, hospital
and school construction)
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
7
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
What impacts infrastructure development on the continent?
Drivers
Restraints
Millennium
Development
Goal targets
Expansion of
the mining
industry
Increasing
private sector
participation
Corruption and
mal-
administration
Reliance on
private sector
for funding
Poor power
supply capacity, restricting the
growth of economies
Expansion of the mining industry and increased participation of the private sector are the key drivers for infrastructure development
Challenges
Project funds have to be secured from the private
sector as African countries do not have sufficient
public funds to support infrastructure development
Skills shortage on the continent results in
engineers and other skilled labour being imported for
projects, increasing costs
Political Instability in the long term increases
the risk of future projects. This challenge is
particularly pertinent in a country like Nigeria.
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
8
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
$28 billion will be invested in transport corridor development in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Road
Rail
Ports
$9.2 billion
$14.8 billion
$3.5 billion
Investment will
result in greater
regional integration
and significantly
increased intra-
African trade
Roads in good condition
Western 72%
Central 49%
Eastern 82%
Southern 100%
Container dwell times (International standard: 7 days)
Western 11-30 days
Eastern 5-28 days
Southern 4-8 days
Freight transport by rail
Western 11%
Central 2%
Eastern 2%
Southern 85%
Existing road networks will be rehabilitated and expanded
to create nine Trans-African Highways
Rail networks will be extended and upgraded to
complement the Trans-African highways
Capacity building at ports will decrease bottlenecks and
support growth in trade and industry
Ten transport corridors are being developed across the
region to improve road and rail networks and increase port
capacity
Current state of transport infrastructure:
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: World Bank and Frost and Sullivan analysis
9
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
Rail infrastructure is the fastest growing segment of transport
infrastructure
Ethiopia
$3.70B
Kenya
$405.5M
Tanzania
$5.37B
Mozambique
$3.66B
Botswana
$1.40B
Zambia
$93.8 M
Nigeria
$6.40B
Ghana
$6.40B
Namibia
$2.68B
Morocco
$14.67BActive rail projects amount
to $48 billion
Number of
planned projects2
1
5
1
1
77
3
31
3
41
1
2
2
3Multi-Country Mega Projects
Botswana-Mozambique-
Zimbabwe$7.0B
Isaka-Keza-Kigali
(Tanzania-Rwanda)$1.9B
Namibia-Botswana $1.3B
Passenger rail
services on the rise...
$4.8 billion is to be invested in
metropolitan light rail
Lagos, Abuja, Maputo and
Addis Ababa are all investing in
urban passenger services
aimed at easing congestion
and road traffic pressures in
heavily built up metropolitan
areas
African governments are
shifting focus towards
large-scale investments
in rail infrastructure in
order to ease the burden
on road networksImproved rail services will
reduce trade costs and
increase access to Africa’s
huge population
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
Number of
ongoing projects
10
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
$94 billion will be invested in the energy sector in Sub-Saharan
Africa
2009 52.6 GW2020 111.6 GW
Mining industry drives growth in installed capacity
2.0 GW
5.0 GW
3.3 GW
18.0 GW
0.4 GW
2.0 GW3.6 GW
0.5 GW
1.7 GW
4.2 GW
2.0 GW
6.3 GW
2.2 GW
5.2 GW
0.4 GW
1.1 GW
0.1 GW
0.7 GW
40.0 GW
65.4 GW2009
2015
The generation capacity of Sub-Saharan Africa is 68 GW, equal to Spain in EuropeSouth Africa alone produces 40 GW Because little development has occurred since the 1980’s, 30 countries in the region
suffer from chronic power outages
$57.7 billion (12 GW) to be
developed in renewable
energies by 2020 across Africa
10,000 km of transmission
lines will be used to exploit
larger scale, cheaper energy
sources
Will continue to be the major
energy source to 2020
Governments to encourage
involvement of private
sector
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
11
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
$15 billion will be invested in water and wastewater infrastructure in
Sub-Saharan Africa
Legend
Number of
projects
WT/
WWT
20/0
1/0
10/1
13/0
9/3
66/13
4/2
10/06/2
7/2 15/7
12/6
Number of projects%
of
Gre
en
fie
ld p
roje
cts
<20%
20%-40%
40%-60%
60%-70%
>70%
$16.5 billion is required annually to meet the infrastructure gap
Less than $1.0 billion is spent on developing infrastructure
Rehabilitation, upgrading and
improvement projects characterise
development
Water supply has been prioritised across the
continent
Large number of projects, valued at less
than $100 million
Millennium Development Goals are the key
driver for development in the sector
Donor organisations fund the majority of
projects in the sector
Piped water
Urban 39%
Rural 5%
Flushing toilet
Urban 25%
Rural 2%
Access to modern infrastructure:
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: World Bank and Frost and Sullivan analysis
12
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
Snapshot of Mega-Infrastructure Projects across the
Continent
$2.5 billion
1600 MW
hydropower station
$10 billion
200,000 low
cost houses
$7 billion
1,100 km railway linking
Botswana to Mozambique
via Zimbabwe
$1.2 billion
1,500 km railway line linking
Namibia to Botswana
$14.5 billion
World’s 3rd
largest
supercritical
coal fired plant
$6.3 billion
2,000 MW Wind and
2,000 MW Solar Power Plan
$7 billion
Rehabilitation of
60,000km of urban
and rural roads
$6 billion
Development of a
new deep sea port
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
13
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
Where will Africa be in 2020?
Transport corridors will drive trade, economic growth
and regional integration
Regional Power Pools will ensure security of supply
and support economic growth
Urbanisation in Africa will increase by 27% between 2010
and 2020, with Africa accounting for 15% of the world’s
urban population
14
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
Bottom up approach used to create Frost & Sullivan’s Infrastructure
Trackers
Project Level Sector LevelCountry
Level
Regional
Level
A bottom-up approach is used to
collect project data across ten
sectors for each infrastructure
tracker.
Infrastructure Tracker Coverage
complete
Snapshot of Project Data Slide
14 trackers complete
Project Phase
Project Value
Start and End Dates
Stakeholders
Financiers
Road
Rail
Ports
Airports
Energy and Power
Telecommunications
Water and Wastewater
Housing
Healthcare
Education
Project Data Identified: Sector Coverage:
Project level data for ongoing and planned projects are identified for
each infrastructure sector
Each sector is analysed and compared based on the level of investment
and type of investment (public or private), providing a country level view
Countries can be compared, providing a regional outlook
15
Guillaume de BassompierreBusiness Development Director
Tel: +27 21 680 3282Cell: +27 71 684 0011Fax: +27 86 651 9430E mail: [email protected]
Kudzanayi BangureProgramme Manager - Infrastructure
Tel: +27 21 680 3207Cell: +27 76 905 1909Fax: +27 86 651 9430E mail: [email protected]
Contact details