AFL Grand Final

TAB supports responsible wagering. Call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au for support.

REIGNING PREMIERS Hawthorn are aiming to win their third consecutive premiership after defeating Fremantle in the preliminary fi nal at Domain Stadium.

Sporting sides develop great belief in overcoming adversity and being able to achieve the pinnacle that everyone else feels is unattainable. A badge of honour if you like. Hawthorn did exactly that last season when they claimed a second successive premiership following Lance Franklin’s departure to Sydney and a string of injuries and illness that hit both players and coach. West Coast, in a second season under Adam Simpson, are only two hours away from doing the same.

The Eagles were a lot better in the second half of last year than they were in the fi rst, but still watched on during the fi nals campaign, the capitulation after half-time against Essendon at Etihad Stadium late in the year cruelling their September aspirations. And it appeared the knee injuries to reigning best-and-fairest winner Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown early in the season would do the same in 2015.

The agony Brown felt when his knee buckled in the round-one loss to the Western Bulldogs was obvious, as was the club’s reaction to the round-three whitewash to Fremantle that left the team 1-2 and seemingly destined for another watching brief throughout the fi nals.

But it could be argued since that point that the Eagles have been the best side in the competition. Granted, Fremantle peeled off nine straight wins to help them claim a minor premiership for the fi rst time in the club’s history, but the back half of their campaign resembled a middle-of-the-road team rather than a premiership contender. Hawthorn, so dominant last season, dropped matches along the way that they normally wouldn’t, the heavy defeat to Port Adelaide in late August opening everyone’s eyes.

However, what has happened throughout the course of the seasons matters little when the Hawks and Eagles square off in a grand fi nal for the fi rst time since they met in the 1991 decider out at Waverley. On that occasion, the gnarly old champs held out the young bucks from WA, a tense tussle becoming a landslide in the fi nal term when Hawthorn pulled away to win in emphatic fashion. Naturally, comparisons have been drawn to that encounter, although it could be argued that the 2015 Eagles are better equipped to handle such an occasion.

North Melbourne hit the Eagles with everything but the kitchen sink in last Saturday night’s preliminary fi nal and probably could have been further in front than 20 points at quarter time. It was still a signifi cant buff er and one that had the capacity to derail what had been an outstanding campaign.

But the hosts were able to absorb the pressure of the Kangaroos, started to win some 50-50 contests and though the fi nishing wasn’t as clean as Simpson would have liked, they simply outgunned their rivals.

The defence which had been lauded, and quite rightly so, for the season’s accomplishments was again outstanding, with the contribution of Sharrod Wellingham, Brad Sheppard and captain Shannon Hurn magnifi cent. They have been asked continually this year to fi ght out of their weight division and have rarely disappointed. The trio, along with Sam Butler,

Jeremy McGovern and Will Schofi eld, are now faced with the responsibility of curbing Hawthorn’s enormous fi repower.

Jack Gunston seems certain to play after overcoming the ankle injury sustained in the qualifying fi nal loss to West Coast three weeks ago, providing the Hawks with access to their leading goal kicker. Gunston is a proven big-game performer and complements the class of Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust, Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo. Rioli needs only a handful of chances to hurt opposing sides -- just ask Fremantle -- and his and Puopolo’s defensive pressure is enormous.

While West Coast’s defence will know it is very much in the cut and thrust of a grand fi nal, so too will the experienced Hawks backline in its desire to curb the attacking options the Eagles boast. Josh Kennedy highlighted why he has been the best power forward in the competition in 2015 with a terrifi c preliminary fi nal performance.

Kennedy’s contested mark and goal in the second term against Scott Thompson sparked his teammates and Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson and his assistants will know that limiting his infl uence is crucial.

But the spectre of Mark LeCras, Jack Darling, Josh Hill and James Cripps looms large also, with the Eagles’ forwards ability to spread the load a key factor. Hawthorn’s defence is superbly led by All-Australian Josh Gibson, who is often the third man-up at marking contests, while the smarts of Brian Lake, Shaun Burgoyne, Grant Birchall and the steadying infl uence of Luke Hodge across half-back cannot be discounted.

But as with all games, so much will depend on the midfi eld battle. Nic Naitanui will lead West Coast’s following division against Ben McEvoy and David Hale and will be looking to bounce back after being beaten by Todd Goldstein. If Naitanui can effi ciently link up with Luke Shuey, Matt Priddis, Elliot Yeo, Andrew Gaff , Mark Hutchings and Chris Masten, the Eagles’ winning chances increase dramatically.

Likewise, the Hawks’ midfi eld of Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Isaac Smith, Liam Shiels, Bradley Hill and Hodge when he stations himself in the centre square rarely lowers its colours and has the benefi t of tremendous experience in grand fi nals.

Much has been made about the physicality Hawthorn could employ. Their ferocious attack on Sydney early in last year’s grand fi nal led to the Swans folding up very quickly. But there is a fair degree of substance about the Eagles, who will be buoyed by their ability to stand up in the qualifying fi nal.

If there is a knock on West Coast’s chances, it is the fact that Hawthorn are a superior side at the MCG than at any other ground. But the Eagles did eclipse Richmond at their only visit to the MCG this year and have had the benefi t of a week’s break as opposed to the Hawks, who have had to travel to Perth twice during the fi nals. If West Coast can hang around for long enough, their fresh legs could be decisive late.

VERDICT : WEST COAST BY 6 POINTS

WEST COAST V HAWTHORNSaturday 12.30pm, MCG, Live Ch 7

MCG WIN % LAST 5 YEARS

76%

27%

LAST FIVE

32POINTS

14POINTS

Round 19, 2015Domain Stadium

44POINTS

Round 12, 2014Aurora Stadium

20POINTS

50POINTS

West Coast Average Score 90pts

Hawthorn Average Score 109pts

Qual Final, 2015Domain Stadium

Round 13, 2013Etihad Stadium

Round 2, 2013Domain Stadium

AVERAGE GOALS SAM MITCHELL

AVERAGE POINTS FOR 104 110

AVERAGE POINTS AGAINST 70 71

AVERAGE GOALS 15 16

AVERAGE INSIDE 50s 55 56

AVERAGE SCORING SHOTS 29 28

AVERAGE KICKS 207 225

AVERAGE DISPOSALS 372 394

PREMIERSHIPS

3 12

Haw

thor

n

Wes

t C

oast

AVERAGE DISPOSALS

3.3

JOSH KENNEDYWest Coast

2.1

2.3

JACK GUNSTONHawthorn

JARRYD ROUGHEADHawthorn

1.9

MARK LECRASWest Coast

1.8

JACK DARLINGWest Coast

1.7

CYRIL RIOLIHawthorn

31.0

SAM MITCHELLHawthorn

29.0

JORDAN LEWISHawthorn

23.6

LUKE SHUEYWest Coast

29.8

MATT PRIDDISWest Coast

26.6

LUKE HODGEHawthorn

23.2

ISAAC SMITHHawthorn

AVERAGE MARKS 91 104

AVERAGE TACKLES 61 66

AVERAGE HITOUTS 52 455

KEY PLAYERS

2015 SEASON RECORD

2.1

LUKE BREUSTHawthorn

1.8

JOSH HILLWest Coast

1.4

JAMIE CRIPPSWest Coast

29.3

ANDREW GAFFWest Coast

25.1

CHRIS MASTENWest Coast

22.8

GRANT BIRCHALLHawthorn

Odds and Lines correct as at 12pm, 01/10/15, subject to change. Refunds on players not in starting 22. *Dead Heat Rule applies. TAB supports responsible wagering. Call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au for support.

Head to Head

West Coast 680389 $2.30

Hawthorn 680390 $1.65

Line

West Coast (+8.5pts) 680391 $1.91

Hawthorn (-8.5pts) 680392 $1.91

Tri Bet 11.5pts

West Coast Over 11.5pts 680473 $3.35

Hawthorn Over 11.5pts 680475 $1.97

Any Other Result 680474 $3.20

Winning Margin 24.5pts

West Coast 1-24pts 680404 $3.65

West Coast 25pts+ 680407 $5.00

Hawthorn 1-24pts 680406 $3.30

Hawthorn 25pts+ 680408 $3.05

Draw 680405 $341st Goal Scorer - West Coast

Josh Kennedy 720555 $4.00

Mark LeCras 720557 $7.00

Jack Darling 720556 $7.00

Josh Hill 720558 $8.00

Jamie Cripps 720559 $9.00

Luke Shuey 720560 $11

Callum Sinclair 720561 $13

Nic Naitanui 720564 $16

Chris Masten 720562 $16

Elliot Yeo 720563 $16

Sharrod Wellingham 720571 $26

Odds available all players

To Win Norm Smith Medal

Sam Mitchell Hawthorn 660013 $6.00

Luke Hodge Hawthorn 660021 $6.00

Matt Priddis West Coast 660040 $8.00

Jordan Lewis Hawthorn 660011 $10

Andrew Gaff West Coast 660034 $13

Jarryd Roughead Hawthorn 660010 $13

Nic Naitanui West Coast 660039 $13

Josh Kennedy West Coast 660044 $13

Sharrod Wellingham West Coast 660041 $15

Cyril Rioli Hawthorn 660031 $17

Mark LeCras West Coast 660033 $17

Luke Shuey West Coast 660042 $17

Elliot Yeo West Coast 660037 $21

Liam Shiels Hawthorn 660029 $21

Isaac Smith Hawthorn 660022 $21

Jack Gunston Hawthorn 660024 $21

Chris Masten West Coast 660038 $26

Luke Breust Hawthorn 660026 $26

Shaun Burgoyne Hawthorn 660017 $26

Jack Darling West Coast 660051 $34

Grant Birchall Hawthorn 660020 $34

Josh Gibson Hawthorn 660014 $34

Bradley Hill Hawthorn 660018 $34

Odds available all players

60 Point Winning Margin

West Coast 1-19pts 680497 $3.90

West Coast 20-39pts 680498 $7.00

West Coast 40-59pts 680499 $13

West Coast 60pts Or More 680500 $23

Hawthorn 1-19pts 680502 $3.70

Hawthorn 20-39pts 680503 $4.70

Hawthorn 40-59pts 680504 $7.00

Hawthorn 60pts Or More 680505 $11

Match Drawn 680501 $34

1st Goal Scorer - Each Way

Josh Kennedy West Coast 681993 $7.00

Jarryd Roughead Hawthorn 681994 $10

Jack Gunston Hawthorn 681996 $11

Jack Darling West Coast 681995 $11

Mark LeCras West Coast 681997 $11

Luke Breust Hawthorn 681999 $12

Cyril Rioli Hawthorn 681998 $12

Josh Hill West Coast 682000 $14

Paul Puopolo Hawthorn 682002 $15

Jamie Cripps West Coast 682001 $15

James Frawley Hawthorn 682003 $17

Ryan Schoenmakers Hawthorn 682006 $17

Luke Hodge Hawthorn 682004 $17

Luke Shuey West Coast 682005 $17

David Hale Hawthorn 682008 $21

Callum Sinclair West Coast 682007 $21

Isaac Smith Hawthorn 682009 $21

Jordan Lewis Hawthorn 682013 $26

Elliot Yeo West Coast 682012 $26

Chris Masten West Coast 682011 $26

Ben McEvoy Hawthorn 682010 $26

Nic Naitanui West Coast 682014 $26

Odds available all players

Winning Margin 39.5pts

West Coast 1-39pts 680393 $2.75

West Coast 40pts+ 680396 $9.50

Hawthorn 1-39pts 680395 $2.22

Hawthorn 40pts+ 680397 $5.50

Draw 680394 $34

Most Disposals - Group A*

Sam Mitchell Hawthorn 717775 $2.48

Matt Priddis West Coast 717771 $3.20

Andrew Gaff West Coast 717772 $7.25

Luke Hodge Hawthorn 717776 $7.75

Jordan Lewis Hawthorn 717777 $8.75

Odds available other players

Most Disposals - Group B*

Isaac Smith Hawthorn 717821 $4.50

Grant Birchall Hawthorn 717820 $4.50

Sharrod Wellingham West Coast 717816 $5.00

Matt Rosa West Coast 717817 $5.50

Josh Gibson Hawthorn 717822 $6.50

Odds available other players

Most Goals*

Josh Kennedy West Coast 718383 $3.25

Jarryd Roughead Hawthorn 718391 $5.00

Jack Gunston Hawthorn 718392 $6.50

Cyril Rioli Hawthorn 718393 $8.00

Mark LeCras West Coast 718384 $8.00

Luke Breust Hawthorn 718394 $9.00

Jack Darling West Coast 718385 $9.00

Luke Hodge Hawthorn 718395 $17

Paul Puopolo Hawthorn 718398 $21

Odds available other players

1st Goal Scorer - Hawthorn

Jarryd Roughead 720811 $6.00

Jack Gunston 720812 $7.00

Cyril Rioli 720813 $8.00

Luke Breust 720814 $8.00

Paul Puopolo 720815 $9.00

Ryan Schoenmakers 720818 $11

James Frawley 720816 $11

Luke Hodge 720817 $11

Isaac Smith 720820 $13

David Hale 720819 $13

Ben McEvoy 720821 $16

Odds available all players

Halftime/Fulltime Double

West Coast/West Coast 680409 $3.20

West Coast/Hawthorn 680410 $6.75

Hawthorn/Hawthorn 680413 $1.97

Hawthorn/West Coast 680412 $8.25

Any Other Result 680411 $20

Tri Bet 15.5pts

West Coast Over 15.5pts 680476 $3.80

Hawthorn Over 15.5pts 680478 $2.21

Any Other Result 680477 $2.45

AFL Grand Final