affordable housing master plan review
TRANSCRIPT
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Affordable Housing Master Plan ReviewHousing Needs Analysis
January 21,2021
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2
Agenda
Overview of the Affordable Housing Master Plan five-year review
Housing Needs Analysis, Jeannette Chapman1. Changes in population and demographics2. Current housing affordability and housing gaps3. Forecast of population and housing needs
What’s Next? Upcoming Events
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3
AHMP Five-year Review Process
Update of Needs Analysis
Five-year AHMP Report
Community feedback on Needs Analysis and AHMP progress
Housing Commission Subcommittee Review
Development of Implementation Framework 2.0
Presentation of Review to County Board
Community Review of Implementation Framework
Summer 2021
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January 21, 2020
Jeannette ChapmanDirector
The Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government
George Mason University
Arlington County Housing Needs Analysis:An Update
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• Diversity Housing affordability directly contributes to the community’s diversity by enabling a wide range of households to live in Arlington, especially households with limited means and special needs.
• Inclusivity Housing inclusivity supports a caring, welcoming community in which discrimination does not occur, housing opportunities are fair, and no one is homeless.
• Choice A range of housing choices should be available throughout our community and affordable to persons of all income levels and needs. Balanced housing choices benefit individuals and the community as a whole.
• Sustainability Housing affordability is vital to the community’s sustainability. It impacts the local economy and the natural and built environments. Affordable housing supports diverse jobs and incomes needed to sustain the local economy.
Arlington’s Housing Values
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Population & Household Trends:2012 - 2018
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34.4
16.8
60.3
35.9
24.5 21.0 18.8
40.8
19.8
53.3
38.1
27.3 22.3 23.5
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
<18(+18.7%)
18-24(+17.5%)
25-34(-11.6%)
35-44(+6.2%)
45-54(+11.5%)
55-64(+6.5%)
65+(+25.1%)
2012= 211,700
2018= 225,200
Population By Age GroupArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
% Change:
Total Change = +13,500 (+6.4%)
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134.5
32.621.1 18.7
4.7
137.2
35.6 22.1 19.7
10.7 -
20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
White, non-Hispanic(+2.0%)
Hispanic, any race(+9.2%)
Asian or PacificIslander, non-Hispanic
(+4.4%)
Black or AfricanAmerican, non-Hispanic
(+5.0%)
Multi-racial/other, non-Hispanic
(+124.9%)
2012= 211,700
2018= 225,200
Population By Race & EthnicityArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
% Change:
Total Change = +13,500 (+6.4%)
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2.0%
9.2%
4.4% 5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
White, non-Hispanic
Hispanic, anyrace
Asian or PacificIslander, non-
Hispanic
Black or AfricanAmerican, non-
Hispanic
Multi-racial/other,non-Hispanic
124.9%
Population % Change By Race & EthnicityArlington County, 2012 - 2018
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
Total Change = +6.4% (+13,500)
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5.2 5.0
6.1 5.8
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
25-65(+18.4%)
65+(+17.3%)
2010-2012 Avg.= 10,120
2016-2018 Avg.= 11,930
Population w/A Disability By Age GroupArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
% Change:
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2.2
3.87
2.4
1.5
2.0
3.94
2.1
1.3
- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
All Families w/Kids Families w/out Kids Non-Family Households
2012 2018
Average Household SizeArlington County, 2012 & 2018
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
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32.7
18.213.7
16.1
6.1 5.62.9
33.7
23.9
17.1 16.3
8.3 6.2 4.5
- 5.0
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
Living Alone,under 65(+3.1%)
Married Couple,No Kids
(+31.2%)
Non-FamilyHousehold, Not
Living Alone(+24.2%)
Married Couple,w/Kids
(+1.7%)
Living Alone,65+
(34.9%)
Single Parent(+9.3%)
Other Family(+55.7%)
2012= 95,370
2018=109,940
Households By Household TypeArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
% Change:
Total Change = +14,570 (+15.3%)
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4.06.8
12.5
8.7 9.88.5
11.513.0
7.7
12.8
5.0 6.6
12.7 10.0 9.2
7.9
12.7
19.1
10.1
16.8
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
<$15K $15-29K $30-59K $60-79K $80-99K $100-119K $120-149K $150-199K $200-249K $250K+
2012= 95,370
2018=109,940
Households By Household IncomeArlington County, 2012 & 2018
(Dollars Inflation-Adjusted to 2018 $, households in 000s)
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
Total Change = +14,570
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24.8%
-3.8%
1.0%
14.7%
-6.8% -7.0%
9.6%
47.2%
31.7% 31.4%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
<$15K $15-29K $30-59K $60-79K $80-99K $100-119K $120-149K $150-199K $200-249K $250K+
Household % Change By Income GroupArlington County, 2012-2018 (Inflation-Adjusted to 2018 $)
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
Total Change = +15.3% (+14,570)
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• Population
• Faster growth in 65+ & <18 year olds: more age diversity
• Faster growth in Hispanic & Multi-Racial residents: more racial & ethnic diversity
• Households
• Faster growth in 65+ living alone & in married couples w/out children
• Slow growth in married couples w/children & faster growth in single (unmarried)
parents; average # of children per family w/kids increased
• Faster growth in households earning $150,000+: less income diversity
Population & Household Trends Take-Aways
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Questions about population or household trends?
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Guideline of <30% of household income spent on housing:• >30% = “Housing Cost Burdened”• >50% = “Extremely Housing Cost Burdened”• Originated in the 1960s• Designed to leave enough income leftover for other needs• “Right” target varies by income, debt, family structure, transportation costs etc
Housing Cost Burden
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61.5%
19.4% 19.2%
63.1%
20.0% 16.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
<30% 30-49% 50%+Percent of Household Income Spent on Rent
2012 2018
Distribution of Renter Households by Percent of Income Spent on Rent, 2012 & 2018
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
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76.2%
16.0%7.8%
79.3%
13.2%7.5%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
<30% 30-49% 50%+Percent of Household Income Spent on Rent
2012 2018
Distribution of Owner Households by Percent of Income Spent on Owner Costs, 2012 & 2018
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
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5.2 5.2
10.3
2.1
4.33.1
4.5
8.1
10.7
3.3 2.9 3.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
30-34% 35-49% 50%+ 30-34% 35-49% 50%+
2012(30,290 HHs)
2018(32,980 HHs)
Renters (+2,640) Owners (+400)
Total Change = 2,680
Households By Share of Income Spent on Housing Costs, Arlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)
Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey
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37.5%31.9% 34.8% 33.2%
64.8%
26.8% 25.4%
15.7%21.2% 19.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
<25 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+
Renters(Total: 38.6% Burdened)
Owners(Total: 19.1% Burdened)
Housing Cost Burden Rates by Age of HouseholderArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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52.4% 50.2%41.2% 38.7%
32.7%37.1%
24.1%17.6%
6.5%
18.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Black or AfricanAmerican, non-
Hispanic
Hispanic, any race Asian or PacificIslander, non-
Hispanic
Multi-racial/other,non-Hispanic
White, non-Hispanic
Renters(Total: 38.6% Burdened)
Owners(Total: 19.1% Burdened)
Housing Cost Burden Rates by Race/Ethnicity of Householder, Arlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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58.1%
37.1%27.5%
18.3%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%
With Disability W/out Disability
Renters(Total: 38.6% Burdened)
Owners(Total: 19.1% Burdened)
Housing Cost Burden Rates by Disability Status of Householder, Arlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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23.4%
42.8%
57.6%47.7% 43.1%
74.7%
24.4%
7.4%12.5%
34.1%24.4%
34.8% 35.2%
10.4%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%
Married, NoKids
Married,w/Kids
Single Parent Other Family Living Alone,under 65
Living Alone,65+
Non-FamilyHousehold,Not Living
Alone
Renters(Total: 38.6% Burdened)
Owners(Total: 19.1% Burdened)
Housing Cost Burden Rates by Household TypeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
<$15K $15-29K $30-59K $60-79K $80-99K $100-119K $120-149K 150-199K $200-249K $250K+
Renters(Total: 38.6% Burdened)
Owners(Total: 19.1% Burdened)
Housing Cost Burden Rates by IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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• Lower-income households (owners & renters)
• Single-person households aged 65 or older (owners & renters)
• Householders with a disability (owners & renters)
• Single-parent households (owners & renters)
• Black or African American households (owners & renters)
• Hispanic households (owners & renters)
Highest Rates of Housing Cost Burden
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Housing Costs & Housing Gaps: 2018
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Distribution of Monthly Rent,Arlington County, 2016-2018 Average
Gross Rent Affordable HH Income
10th Percentile $1,229 $ 49,160 25th Percentile $1,570 $ 62,800 Median (50th Percentile) $1,967 $ 78,680 75th Percentile $2,432 $ 97,280 90th Percentile $3,032 $ 121,280
Average Cost $2,031 $ 81,240 Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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Distribution of Monthly Owner Costs:Households With a Mortgage
Arlington County, 2016-2018 AverageHome Owner
CostsAffordable HH
Income10th Percentile $1,667 $ 66,680 25th Percentile $2,265 $ 90,600 Median (50th Percentile) $3,001 $120,040 75th Percentile $4,002 $160,080 90th Percentile $5,200 $208,000
Average Cost $3,268 $130,720 Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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Distribution of Monthly Owner Costs:Households Without a Mortgage
Arlington County, 2016-2018 AverageHome Owner
CostsAffordable HH
Income10th Percentile $642 $ 25,680 25th Percentile $781 $ 31,240 Median (50th Percentile) $994 $ 39,760 75th Percentile $1,245 $ 49,800 90th Percentile $1,507 $ 60,280
Average Cost $1,047 $ 41,880 Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey
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Area Median Income$117,200 for a Family of Four (2018)
Income Maximum Affordable Monthly Housing Cost
Extremely Low Income: 0-30% AMI<$35,650: Family of Four<$24,650: Single Person
<$890: Family of Four<$615: Single Person
Very Low to Low Income: 30-60% AMI$35,650 - $70,320: Family of Four$24,650 - $49,225: Single Person
$890-$1,760: Family of Four$615-$1,230: Single Person
Moderate Income: 60-80% AMI$70,320 - $93,760: Family of Four$49,225 - $65,630: Single Person
$1,760-$2,345: Family of Four$1,230-$1,640: Single Person
Middle Income: 80-120% AMI$93,760 - $140,640: Family of Four$65,630 - $98,450: Single Person
$2,345-$3,515: Family of Four$1,640-$2,460: Single Person
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• <30% AMI• Cashier• Retail Sale• Fast Food Cook
• 30-49% AMI• Home Health Aid • Medical Assistant• Childcare Worker• Bank Teller• Security Guard
Jobs by Median Earnings, One-Person Household• 50-79% AMI
• Dental Assistant• Carpenter• Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerk
• Licensed Practical / Vocational Nurse
• 80-120% AMI• Registered Nurses• Accountants & Auditors• Human Resources Specialists• Computer Programmers
Sources: U.S. Bureauu of Labor Statistics
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4+ People
3 People
2 People
1 Person
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
<30% AMI 30-49% AMI 50-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119%AMI
120% AMI+
4+ People 3 People 2 People 1 Person
Renter Households by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community SurveyNOTE: Assumes one bedroom per person
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4+ Bedrooms
3 Bedrooms
2 Bedroom
0/1 Bedrooms
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
<30% AMI 30-49% AMI 50-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119%AMI
120% AMI+
4+ Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 2 Bedroom 0/1 Bedrooms
Rental Units by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community SurveyNOTE: Assumes one bedroom per person
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1 Person
2 People
3 People
4+ People
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
<30% AMI 30-49% AMI 50-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119%AMI
120% AMI+
1 Person 2 People 3 People 4+ People
Owner Households by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community SurveyNOTE: Assumes one bedroom per person
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0/1 Bedrooms
2 Bedroom
3 Bedrooms
4+ Bedrooms
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
<30% AMI 30-49% AMI 50-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119%AMI
120% AMI+
0/1 Bedrooms 2 Bedroom 3 Bedrooms 4+ Bedrooms
Owner Units by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.
Source: 2016-2018 American Community SurveyNOTE: Assumes one bedroom per person and that households can afford a unit valued at four times their household income
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• Renters need to earn at least $49,160 to rent in the County without being cost
burdened
• Owners need to earn at least $25,680 to afford non-mortgage housing costs
• There is a scarcity of rental units renting for prices <50% of AMI & larger units
• 1-2 person owners are more likely to live in units with more bedrooms than people
Housing Cost & Gaps Take-Aways
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Questions about housing cost burdens, market trends or gaps?
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Forecasting Housing Demand
Housing Demand
Demographic –driven demand
Employment –driven demand
-- Net new jobs & replacements for retirees
-- Regionwide
-- Incorporates typical commutingpatterns
-- Retirees, students& some types of self-employed
-- Main source of growth is retirementof current residents and their aging incommunity
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1.5 1.9
1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
020406080
100120140160180200
Average Annual Unmet Demand(Right Axis)
Demand(Left Axis)
Supply*(Left Axis)
Forecast of Housing Demand & Likely Supply*Arlington County, 2015-2045
Source: MWCOG Forecast Round 9.1a; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*The MWCOG forecast is used as a proxy for supply; supply responds to changes in demand but is constrained the pipeline in the short term and the availability of land (including zoning) in the long term
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• The Baby Boomer generation will age from being 51-69 years old in 2015 to
being older than 81 years old in 2045.
• The Millennial generation will age from being 16 to 34 years old in 2015 to
being 46 to 64 in 2045.
• The Washington region will continue to have fast growth in low-wage jobs.
Key Trends Through 2045
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(8,000) (6,000) (4,000) (2,000)
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,00020
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
3020
3120
3220
3320
3420
3520
3620
3720
3820
3920
4020
4120
4220
4320
4420
45
Total: +75,000
Job Change in Arlington County, 2015-2045
Source: IHS Markit
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(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,00020
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
3020
3120
3220
3320
3420
3520
3620
3720
3820
3920
4020
4120
4220
4320
4420
45
Total: +927,000
Job Change in the Washington Region, 2015-2045
Source: IHS Markit
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- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
ManufacturingInformation
Financial ActivitiesOther Services
ConstructionFederal Govt
Transp., Trade, & UtilitiesState & Local Govt
Leisure & HospitalityEdu. & Health Svcs
Prof. & Business Svcs
20152045
Job Growth in the Washington Region, 2015-2045 (000s)
Source: IHS Markit
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30.5%
37.7%
32.1% 30.6%28.1%
21.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
<30% AMI 30-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119% AMI 120%+ AMI
Household % Change By Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2020-2045
Total Change = +26.6% (+29,797)
Source: Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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29.1% 29.8% 30.2% 30.9% 31.3%27.3% 28.0% 28.2% 28.5% 28.6%
52.0% 50.8% 50.4% 49.5% 49.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2015 2025 2030 2040 2045
<60% AMI 60-119% AMI 120+% AMI
Distribution of Households By Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2020 & 2045
Source: MarketStats by ShowingTime
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34.5%
43.1%38.5% 36.7%
33.5% 33.7%
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%
<30% AMI 30-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119% AMI 120%+ AMI
Household % Change By Area Median Income:Renter Households, Arlington County, 2020-2045
Total Change = +26.6% (All HHs)
Source: Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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16.4%
20.4%17.3% 17.5% 17.0%
12.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
<30% AMI 30-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119% AMI 120%+ AMI
Household % Change By Area Median Income:Owner Households, Arlington County, 2020-2045
Total Change = +26.6% (All HHs)
Source: Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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29.3% 28.9% 26.9%
13.8%
28.0%
11.8%
65.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1-Person 2 People 3 People 4+ People <65 65-84 85+
Household % Change By Select Attribute:Arlington County, 2020-2045
Total Change = +26.6% (All HHs)
Source: Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Household Size Householder Age
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25.7%22.9%
31.9%
12.1%
26.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Multiple Physical Cognitive Ind. Living / Self-Care None
Household % Change By Disability Status:Arlington County, 2020-2045
Total Change = +26.6% (All HHs)
Source: Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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• The number of households earning less than <30% of AMI is projected to
increase by 4,340, including an increase of 3,720 renters.
• The number of households earning between 30% and 60% of AMI is projected
to increase by 5,790, including 4,960 renters.
• The number households earning between 60% and 80% of AMI is projected to
increase by 4,060, including 3,360 renter households.
Between 2015 & 2045
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Questions about housing forecasts or other?
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53
What’s Next
January 26,2021 at noonRescreening of Housing Needs Analysis
January 28, 2020 at 6:00 pmVirtual Community MeetingThe Affordable Housing Master Plan at Five Years:A look back on implementation progress
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An Expanded Approach to an Equitable, Stable, Adaptive Community
housing.arlingtonva.us