aeronautical satcom markets - nsr · nsr’s aeronautical satcom markets report answers the...

Aeronautical Satcom Markets

Report Briefing

Copyright © 2013 NSR, LLC. All Rights Reserved



Report Description

NSR’s Aeronautical Satcom Markets report answers the critical questions affecting the in-flight connectivity business. Based on NSR’s extensive coverage and strong foundation of measuring and monitoring the changes and trends that drive aeronautical satcom services, this report maps additional ancillary revenues, connectivity and bandwidth requirements, passenger take-up and the global evolution of this marketplace in the coming decade. This complete analytical tool will help readers track the development and advances of this evolving market. It will help answer fundamental questions about aeronautical satcom services such as:

• What are the main aeronautical satcom markets? • What are the connectivity requirements for each airframe segment? • What will be the impact of the expansion of air-to-ground systems on satellite

services and vice-versa? • What is the competitive landscape and the competitive forces at play? • How many airframes are in the addressable market? • What type of platform and frequency bands will be used? • What trends and drivers are impacting the market? • What is the market share of service providers and equipment manufacturers in this

market? • How much will passengers spend on connectivity? • What will be the penetration rate of satellite in the in-flight connectivity market? • Which services will help the passenger experience grow the market the most in the

short-, medium and long-term? • Are there still new opportunities and if so, which ones will be the most important in the

coming decade? • What level of demand for satellite bandwidth and capacity will emerge in each

frequency band, platform, and region? • Bottom Line: How does NSR see the Aeronautical SatCom Markets developing

over the next 10 years in each region and for each segment of the market

Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition


The NSR Difference With a solid track record and proven methodology is what underpins NSR’s Aeronautical Satcom Markets report. The report analyzes the speed at which these changes take place and where the market will grow in the decade ahead. With years of experience covering the aeronautical satellite market, NSR provides a completely fresh and up-to-date assessment with highly valuable information and data points to assess where the market is headed globally and by region. NSR’s Aeronautical Satcom Markets provides an objective view of the trends underlying the growth and the major impact of drivers and restraint to growth in both commercial and government segments. By evaluating and forecasting type of services, passenger take-uprate, revenues from services, satcom units, bandwidth usage, equipment, average revenues per unit, passenger spending, capacity demand and customer segments, NSR provides the most complete and thorough analysis of the future trends in the aeronautical satcom services market for the next ten years.



Key Features

Unparalleled Market Forecasts This report provides readers with forecasts on key industry parameters to assess the success of various markets: • In-Service Unit Forecasts by airframes for the General, Business, Commercial, and

Government markets. • Retail and Wholesale Revenues Forecasts to provide not only total services but also

equipment retail revenues, showing how revenues scale along the value chain for each platform and by frequency. Furthermore, the relevant Average Revenues per User (ARPU) figures are segmented along both retail and wholesale revenues to help assess the revenue-generation capabilities of users and a variety of categories of services and types of airframe and equipment.

• Transponder Demand Forecasts segmented along the main commercial FSS frequencies (Ku- and Ka-band) and new HTS satellites

• Commercial and Government Segment Forecasts to assess the precise customer demand trends by segment

Who Should Purchase this Report? • Carriers and Aircraft Leasing Operators • Aircraft Manufacturers • Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) and Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) Operators • Distributors, Service Providers, and Resellers • Network Service Providers • Satellite Manufacturers • Financial Institutions Evaluating Investment and Returns in the Aeronautical Market • Terminal, Antenna, Smartphone and Handset Manufacturers • Regulators Evaluating Aeronautical Market Offerings and Spectrum Utilizations • Agencies Funding Pre-Competitive Telecom Research and Development • Space Agencies • Users in Both Commercial and Government/Military Organizations

Elements of this Study Include: • A Complete PowerPoint Report Document containing all quantitative and qualitative

analysis. • An Excel file containing all data and graphs so the client can easily use this work as a basis for

their own internal market projections. • A Market Summary Document (PDF) containing an overview of the report findings and

recommendations. • Complimentary 1/2 half day of consulting time with the NSR analyst who authored the

report to review report findings and interpret the market. Have Questions on the Content or Scope of this Report? Please Click Here to E mail Your Questions to the Report Author



Aeronautical Satcom Services- Report Segmentation



Executive Summary The smallest addressable market among mobile satellite platforms, the aeronautical segment has conversely shown very high service revenues on average, driven in large part by government markets. However, with the recent wave of satellite equipment installations on commercial aircraft, in-flight connectivity services have reached a tipping point on the growth curve. Wi-Fi equipment is now offered with or without connectivity to meet the demand for enhanced passenger experience. Original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deals with service providers have multiplied to offer line-fit options on more airframes than ever before, and ISR applications remain a key driver of government aeronautical applications. All told, an emerging business case for commercial passenger connectivity is just on the horizon, leading to stronger than ever growth for aeronautical satellite connectivity players.



The aeronautical satcom market is driven by the general aviation and rotor wing airframe market for in-service units and by narrow-body commercial aircraft for revenues. In terms of bandwidth demand, narrow-body aircraft will show the highest demand for both Ku-band and HTS capacity, while the sheer number of L-band units installed will generate a sizeable portion of the revenues over the forecast period. Key findings of NSR’s Aeronautical Satcom Markets analysis include:

• In-service units will be added over the next ten years at a 6.3% CAGR, driven in large part by L-band units that serve mostly the GA & RW market. The largest growth in the total will come from narrow-body aircraft, which will account for 27% of in-service units at the end of 2022.

• Retail revenues will inch up to $3.4 billion in 2022, with about one-third from narrow-body aircraft. The expected transition to high-throughput satellite (HTS) connectivity will mean that HTS revenues will see sizable growth from almost zero today.

• Bandwidth demand across Ku-band and HTS will grow significantly by the end of 2022 and reach $670 million in revenues. Wide-body and narrow-body commercial airframes will drive Ku-band market demand, while narrow-body airframes (which are installed earlier than wide-body and business jets) will drive HTS capacity demand.

Bottom Line The aeronautical satcom market is on the cusp of a huge increase in demand and will experience significant changes with a proliferation of new solutions to enable better and more widespread in-flight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC). The IFEC market will push demand up and reach 35% of total revenues in 2022 as data and Wi-Fi systems installed on commercial airlines take hold of the emerging satellite connectivity market.



Table of Contents Executive Summary

1.Context and Trends Aeronautical Satcom Addressable Markets by Airframe

Wide-Body

Narrow-Body (includes Regional)

General Aviation and Rotor Wing

Business Jets

Trends

Air-to-ground vs Satellite

Range Extension

Biz Jet Rebound

Coverage and Cost

Cost of equipment

Price of Service

Consolidation in Aero Satcom

OEMs Deals

2. Market Ecosystem Market Share

By Revenues

By In-Service Units

By Aircraft Contracts

Service Providers Aircraft Contract

Market Environment

Penetration Rate – VSAT

Penetration Rate – L-Band Connectivity

MSS vs FSS vs HTS



3. Market Forecasts Global Forecast

In-Service Units and Revenues

By Airframe

By Frequency Band

By Service Type

By Segment

Transponders Demand/HTS Capacity

Airframes

Wide-body

Narrow-body

General Aviation & Rotor Wing

Business Jets

Service Type

IFEC

Safety of flight

Segments

Commercial

Government/Military

Transponder and Capacity

Ku-Band

HTS

4. Annex (Methodology)



List of Exhibits

Ex. ES.1 Aeronautical Satcom Addressable Markets

Ex. ES.2 Wide-Body Addressable Markets

Ex. ES.3 Narrow-Body Addressable Markets

Ex. ES.4 General Aviation and Rotor Wing Addressable Markets

Ex. ES.5 Business Jets Addressable Markets

Ex. ES.6 Aeronautical L-Band Penetration

Ex. ES.7 ATG, Ku-Band and HTS Market Share by Revenues

Ex. ES.8 Aeronautical VSAT Penetration

Ex. ES.9 Aeronautical Satcom Markets In-Services Units by Airframe, Segment & Frequency

Band

Ex. ES.10 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Revenues and Capacity Demand by Frequency Band

Ex. ES.11 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Revenues by Airframe

Ex. ES.12 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Revenues by Service

Ex. 1.1 Aeronautical Satcom Addressable Market

Ex. 1.2 Wide-Body Addressable Market

Ex. 1.3 Narrow-Body Addressable Market

Ex. 1.4 General Aviation and Rotor Wing Addressable Market

Ex. 1.5 Business Jets Addressable Market

Ex. 1.6 Aeronautical Air-to-Ground and Satellite Services Comparison

Ex. 1.7 Aeronautical Air-to-Ground, Ku-Band and HTS Market Share by In-Service Units

Ex. 1.8 Aeronautical Air-to-Ground, Ku-Band and HTS Market Share by Revenues

Ex. 1.9 Aeronautical Satcom Services Rating Chart

Ex. 1.10 Business Jets Deliveries

Ex. 1.11 Aeronautical Connectivity Pricing

Ex. 1.12 Aeronautical Connectivity Equipment Cost by Airframe

Ex. 1.13 Aeronautical Connectivity ARPU by Airframe

Ex. 1.14 Aeronautical Satcom Markets Mergers and Acquisitions, 2011-2013

Ex. 1.15 Aeronautical OEM Installations by Aircraft and Service Provider



Ex. 2.1 Aeronautical Connectivity Service Providers Market Share by Revenues

Ex. 2.2 Aeronautical Ku-Band Service Providers Market Share by In-Service Units

Ex. 2.3 Aeronautical Connectivity Service Providers Market Share by Aircraft Contracted

Ex. 2.4 Aeronautical Service Provider’ Aircraft under Contract

Ex. 2.5 Penetration Rate of Satellite Connectivity by Airframe Type

Ex. 2.6 Penetration Rate of L-Band Satellite Connectivity by Airframe Type

Ex. 2.7 FSS vs. MSS vs. HTS IFEC Market Share for Commercial Aircraft Market

Ex. 3.1 Aeronautical Satcom Market In-service Units, by Scenario

Ex. 3.2 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Services Revenues, by Region

Ex. 3.3 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Equipment Revenues, by Region

Ex. 3.4 Aeronautical Satcom Total Retail Revenues, by Region

Ex. 3.5 Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units by Airframe

Ex. 3.6 Aeronautical Satcom Revenues by Airframe

Ex. 3.7 Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units by Frequency Band

Ex. 3.8 Aeronautical Satcom Total Retail Revenues by Frequency Band

Ex. 3.9 Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units by Service Type

Ex. 3.10 Aeronautical Satcom Retail and Wholesale Revenues by Service Type

Ex. 3.11 Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units and Retail Revenues by Segment

Ex. 3.12 Aeronautical Satcom TPE and Bandwidth Demand

Ex. 3.13 Aeronautical Satcom TPE Demand and HTS Capacity Revenues

Ex. 3.14 Wide-Body Market In-Service Units

Ex. 3.15 Wide-Body Market Transponder and Bandwidth Demand

Ex. 3.16 Wide-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.17 Wide-Body Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.18 Wide-Body Ku-Band Transponder Demand

Ex. 3.19 Wide-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Segment

Ex. 3.20 Wide-Body Commercial Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.21 Wide-Body Commercial Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.22 Wide-Body Gov’t/Mil. Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.23 Wide-Body Gov’t/Mil. Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.24 Wide-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.25 Wide-Body L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.26 Wide-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Segment

Ex. 3.27 Wide-Body Commercial L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.28 Wide-Body Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues

Ex. 3.29 Wide-Body Government L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario



Ex. 3.30 Wide-Body Gov’t/Mil. L-Band Retail and Wholesale Revenues

Ex. 3.31 Wide-Body HTS In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.32 Wide-Body HTS Retail Equipment and Services Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.33 Wide-Body HTS Bandwidth Demand

Ex. 3.34 Wide-Body Commercial HTS In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.35 Wide-Body Commercial HTS Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.36 Wide-Body Gov’t/Mil HTS In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.37 Wide-Body HTS Gov’t/Mil. HTS Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.38 Narrow-Body Market In-Service Units

Ex. 3.39 Narrow-Body Market Transponder and Capacity Demand

Ex. 3.40 Narrow-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.41 Narrow-Body Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.42 Narrow-Body Ku-Band Transponder Demand

Ex. 3.43 Narrow-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Segment

Ex. 3.44 Narrow-Body Commercial Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.45 Narrow-Body Commercial Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.46 Narrow-Body Gov’t/Mil. Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.47 Narrow-Body Ku-Band Gov’t/Mil. Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.48 Narrow-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.49 Narrow-Body L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.50 Narrow-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Segment

Ex. 3.51 Narrow-Body Commercial L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.52 Narrow-Body Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues

Ex. 3.53 Narrow-Body Government L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.54 Narrow-Body Gov’t/Mil. L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues

Ex. 3.55 Narrow-Body Gov’t/Mil. L-Band Retail and Wholesale Revenues

Ex. 3.56 Narrow-Body HTS In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.57 Narrow-Body HTS Retail & Wholesale Revenues

Ex. 3.58 Narrow-Body HTS Bandwidth Demand

Ex. 3.59 Narrow-Body Commercial HTS In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.60 Narrow-Body Commercial HTS Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.61 Narrow-Body Gov’t/Mil HTS In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.62 Narrow-Body HTS Gov’t/Mil. Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.63 General Aviation and Rotor Wing Market In-Service Units

Ex. 3.64 GA & RW Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.65 GA & RW Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.66 GA & RW Ku-Band Transponder Demand



Ex. 3.67 GA & RW L-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues

Ex. 3.68 GA & RW Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues

Ex. 3.69 GA & RW Gov’t/Mil. L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues

Ex. 3.70 Business Jets Market In-Service Units

Ex. 3.71 Business Jets Market Transponder and HTS Capacity Demand

Ex. 3.72 Business Jets Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.73 Business Jets Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.74 Business Jets Ku-Band Transponder Demand

Ex. 3.75 Business Jets Ku-Band In-Service Units by Segment

Ex. 3.76 Business Jets Commercial Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.77 Business Jets Commercial Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.78 Business Jets Gov’t/Mil. Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.79 Business Jets L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.80 Business Jets L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region

Ex. 3.81 Business Jets L-Band In-Service Units by Segment

Ex. 3.82 Business Jets Commercial L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.83 Business Jets Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues

Ex. 3.84 Business Jets Gov’t/Mil. L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.85 Business Jets Gov’t/Mil. L-Band Retail and Wholesale Revenues

Ex. 3.86 Business Jets HTS In-Service Units by Scenario

Ex. 3.87 Business Jets HTS Retail & Wholesale Revenues

Ex. 3.88 Business Jets HTS Bandwidth Demand

Ex. 3.89 Business Jets Commercial HTS In-Service Units by Segment

Ex. 3.90 IFEC Market In-Service Units by Service Type

Ex. 3.91 IFEC Market Equipment and Total Retail Revenues

Ex. 3.92 IFEC GSM/Voice Market In-Service Units

Ex. 3.93 IFEC GSM/Voice Market In-Service Units and Equipment Revenues

Ex. 3.94 Safety of Flight Market In-Service Units and Total Retail Revenues

Ex. 3.95 Aeronautical Satcom Commercial In-Service Units

Ex. 3.96 Aeronautical Satcom Gov’t/Mil In-Service Units by Airframe

Ex. 3.97 Ku-Band Aeronautical Transponder Demand and Revenues

Ex. 3.98 Ku-Band Aeronautical Transponder Demand by Airframe

Ex. 3.99 Ku-Band Aeronautical Transponder Demand and Revenues

Ex. 3.100 HTS Aeronautical Total Retail Revenues by Airframe

aeronautical satcom markets - nsr · nsr’s aeronautical satcom markets report answers the...

Documents