Towards Rational Energy Use: a basis for a sustainable energy system

Dr. Bernard Aebischer, CEPE/ETHZ

Frontiers of Research in Industrial Ecology

Scientific Workshop, Uni Lausanne, 27-11 – 1-12-06

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Content• Rational use of energy

• 2000 Watt Society

• Scenario « Towards a 2000 Watt Society »

• A basis for a sustainable energy system

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Rational use of energy (1)• « Autonomous » technological progress

• Innovation

• « nature » of engineers

• Examples at micro level: process, technology• Lighting• Computers

• Examples on macro level• Energy/GDP on country level (+ structural changes)• Impact technol. progress on US energy demand

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20001800 1840 1880 1920 1960

1000

10'000

100

10

1

18601820 1940 19801900

Paraffinkerzen

Goebel

Edison

Halogenlampe

Fluoreszenzlampen

Niederdruck Natriumdampflampen

Gaslampen

Glühstrumpf

Theoretisches Minimum

Jahre

Leis

tun

gsb

ed

arf

fü

r 1000

lm [W

att

]

mit Kohlefaden

mit WolframwendelGlühbirnen

Technical progress in lighting. Source: Spreng, lecture, ETHZ, 2006

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Specific electricity consumption (in relative units) of computers. Source: Aebischer et al., 1994.

1E-10

1E-09

1E-08

1E-07

1E-06

1E-05

1E-04

1E-03

1E-02

1E-01

1E+00

1940 1960 1980 2000

MUSIC

Cray

PC

IBM 370/168

CDC 6400/6500

CDC 1604

ERMETH

ZUSE Z4

6

En

ergi

eint

ensi

tät [

MJ/

DM

'85

BIP

]

1860 1900 1950 2000 2050

China

Großbritannien

Deutschland

Frankreich

Japan

ehem. UdSSR

Indien

Osteuropa

35

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

erwartete Trendentwicklung

Entwicklung bei hohem Kapital- und Technologietransfer

Staatshandels-länder

Deutschland Referenz

Deutschland CO2-Reduktion um 80 %

Quellen: Chandler et al., 1990; CEC, 1996; Berechnungen (mit Währungsparitäten) durch ISI, 1997

Zeit

(Commercial) energy / GDP in various countries, 1860-2050. Source: Jochem, lecture, ETHZ, 2006

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Source: Laitner, 2005

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Rational use of energy (2)• Conclusion: despite efficiency improvements growth in

demand

• Faster increase of « drivers » (population, income, …)

• New and more energy services (incl. rebound)

• Potentials of more rational use• Type of potential

• Time scale

• Realisation dependent on boundary conditions, energy price, investment criteria, behaviour, policies (energy and/or innovation, e.g. RAVEL)

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Types of energy efficiency potentials. Source: Jochem, lecture, ETHZ, 2006

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2000 Watt Society (1)• Trial to operationalise sustainable development by using

energy/capita as the leading indicator• Energy for satisfying basic needs (food, shelter, …)

1000 Watt/cap (Goldemberg et al. 1988)

• Economic (development) and social (equity) dimension: 2000 Watt/cap (ETH-Rat, 1998)

• Additional requirement: limitation of CO2 concentration in atmosphere (limit global warming), e.g. SchweizerischerBundesrat, 2002) 1 t CO2/cap

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Gartenhag

Energy use per time and capita (average and highest and lowest decile) in various countries and within countries, source: Spreng, 2005

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Energy demand today and 2000 Watt target

Primary energy demand worldwide 1875-2000 (left side) and in Switzerland 1910-2000 (right side) (Jochem, 2004)

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2000 Watt Society (2)

• Technical feasibility investigated by a group of people from ETHZ, EPFL, PSI, EMPA, University of Zürich and published by novatlantis (Jochem, 2004)

• Questions: how to initiate the process? how to tap the full potential? how fast? how much does it cost? scenario «Towards a 2000 Watt Society»

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2000 Watt Society – The Challenge

Energy flow diagram, Switzerland 2000 and 2050 (Jochem, 2004)

Energy service factors determininguseful energy demand useful energy

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2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

new buildings and refurbishment of buildings–residential sector

office buildings, new and refurbished

trains, aircraft, paper machines

2nd generation 1st generation

factory buildings, new and refurbished

cement kilns, thin sheet steel casting

1st generation 2nd generation

mobile fuel cells in vehicles

2nd generation 1st generation

highly efficient electrical appliances

light weight cars

aircraft turbines

Back Casting for Priority Setting of R&D and Specific Policies

Timing and priorities by back-casting and re-investment cycles

point in time to have a substantial impact by mid of the 21st century

minimum time needed forR&D

1)

3)

2) Source: Jochem, 2004

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Scenario «Towards a 2000 Watt Society» (1)Scenario IV in framework of energy perspectives of Swiss

Federal Office of Energy (final report spring 2007)

• Time horizon 2035

• Targets 2035• CO2 emissions: -35% relative to emissions in 2000• Final energy demand per capita: - 35% relative to 2000 (4 =3+1)

• Preconditions/prerequisites? Measures? Costs?

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Scenario «Towards a 2000 Watt Society» (2)Preconditions/prerequisites (all sectors, not exhaustive)• Worldwide new priorities (governments and civil society, voluntary

collaboration)

• Fast diffusion of “best practice”

• R&D with focus on energy efficiency

• Energy tax: • increase of energy prices for end users by 100%,

• partially used to finance energy programs, mainly to reduce transaction costs and to a lesser extend to overcome market barriers for innovative technologies.

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Scenario «Towards a 2000 Watt Society» (3)Measures / model inputs (service sector, examples)• New buildings (1/4):

– heat demand half of “Minergie” requirements; – electricity demand corresponding to target values of SIA-380/4

(2006)• Existing buildings (1/4):

– most renewed buildings with twice as much reduction in heat demand as half of the buildings in the BAU-scenario;

– the electricity demand of renewed buildings reaches after 2020 75% of the efficiency in new buildings

• Application of new technologies (particularly ICT) with focus onresource/energy efficiency, e.g.

– optimal operation of equipment and buildings– optimal use of all kind of resources: office space, hospital facilities

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Scenario «Towards a 2000 Watt Society» (5)

Heat energy demand in new buildings (left side) and fraction of the buildings without efficiency improvement in scenario BAU (Pinsel-sanierungen) but with a significant efficiency improvement in scenario IV (right side). Source: Aebischer/Catenazzi, 2006.

Durchschnittliche Anforderung an den Heizwärmebedarf der Neubauten, in MJ/m2.Jahr

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Ia III IV

Anteil der in Szen. I "pinselsanierten" Gebäude, die in den Szen. III und IV energetisch wirksam saniert werden, in %

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

III

IV

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Scenario «Towards a 2000 Watt Society» (6)

Electric power (wattage) demand of an office building during one week and electricity demand (left side) and electricity demand (kWh) in 32 office buildings during one week split in electricity demand during office hours and outside office hours. Source: Menti, 1999.

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Scenario «Towards a 2000 Watt Society» (7)

Final energy demand per capita and CO2 emissions (in absolute terms) in the

service/commercial sector in different scenarios - compared to the target (in

red) “Towards a 2000 Watt society” (Aebischer/Catenazzi, 2006)

Relative Entwickl. (100 = 2000) Endenergieverbrauch pro Kopf

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

IV Ziel best practice III Ia

Relative Entwicklung (100 = 2000) CO2-Emissionen

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

IV Ziel best practice III Ia

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Rational energy use and sustainable energy system (1)

Criteria of a sustainable energy system (examples):• Social criteria: basic needs, equity, health, …

• Economic criteria: increase of welfare (“qualitative” growth), …

• Environment criteria: CO2 emissions, local pollution, landscape preservation, …….

Possible contributions in CH in 2035• Fossil fuels: limited reserves, pollution and CO2, security of supply

(-> coal, methane hydrates)

• Renewables: important potentials, costs

• Nuclear: important potential, risk, waste, proliferation, acceptance, investments

• Rational use of energy (“negawatts”): important potential, costs, actors/stakeholders

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Rational energy use and sustainable energy system (2)

Reduction of CO2 emissions in the service sector (example)• Efficiency improvements: 75% - 66%

• Substitution (decarbonising): 25% - 33%

• Assumption: CO2 free electricity!

This order of magnitude in all scenarios and in earlier studies • done by CEPE (and most probably others)

• in other sectors

• Assumption: heat pump = efficiency improvement, free outside heat not counted.

If gas fired power plants then rational use even more important

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Rational energy use and sustainable energy system (3)

Contributions to reduction of CO2 emissions in Swiss service/commercial sector, 1990-2035

Szenario IV, Wärme inkl. Elektrowärme

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

M EKZ CO2-I M*EKZ*CO2-I=CO2

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Aebischer, B., G. Catenazzi, 2006. Energieverbrauch der Dienstleistungen und der Landwirt-schaft. Energieperspektiven 2035/2050. Entwurf June 2006. Bundesamt für Energie, Bern http://www.bfe.admin.ch/php/modules/publikationen/stream.php?extlang=de&name=de_404144966.pdf

Aebischer; B. et al., 1994. Stromverbrauchsentwicklung im Dienstleistungssektor. Bulletin SEV/VSE 16/94

ETH-Rat, 1998, 2000 Watt-Gesellschaft - Modell Schweiz

Goldemberg, J. et al., 1988. Energy for a Sustainable World. Wiley Eastern Limited. New Delhi. ISBN 81-224-0000-0.

Jochem, E. (Editor), 2004. Steps towards a sustainable development. A White Book for R&D of energy-efficient technologies, Zurich, http://www.cepe.ch/research/projects/2000_watt_society/WhiteBook_on_RD_energyefficient_technologies.pdf

Laitner, J. „Skip“, 2005. Prospects for Energy Efficiency Gains in an Alternative Policy Scenario. Policies to Shape an Alternative Energy Future. IEA, Paris, May http://www.iea.org/Textbase/work/2005/weo_future/Presentations/Skip_Laitner.pdf

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Menti U.-P., 1999. „Standby-Verbrauch“ von Dienstleistungsgebäuden. Verbrauchsmessun-gen an 32 Objekten. Bundesamt für Energie, Forschungsprogramm Elektrizität, Bern, September

Schweizerischer Bundesrat, 2002, Strategie Nachhaltige Entwicklung 2002, www.konsum.admin.ch/imperia/md/content/nachhaltigeentwicklung/entwicklung02.pdf

Spreng, D., 2005. Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target. Viewpoint. Energy Policy 33 (2005) 1905–1911