advanced modeling practice at cmap kermit wies october 2014
TRANSCRIPT
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Advanced Modeling Practice at CMAP
Kermit WiesOctober 2014
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Background and History
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Trip-Based Models
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
Network Assignment
Feedback
Transit
Non-Motorized
Generalized Cost
MSA
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Plan for Advanced Modeling at CMAP
• Policy priorities• Data needs• Computing environment
Freight Highway Pricing Transit Modernization
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Advanced Freight Model Development
• GO TO 2040 Freight Chapter– National and Regional Policy– Economic development– Infrastructure
• Three-tiered freight analysis– Macro = Economic choice– Meso = Supply chain and logistics– Micro = Network operations
• Implementation strategy– Microsimulation– Agent-based
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Progress-to-date• Two rounds of mesoscale development
– Microsimulates commodity flows and predicts distribution channels to, from and through the CMAP region. Also assembles local truck tours.
• Implemented at CMAP for scenario and project tests
cmap.illinois.gov/catmug
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Two rounds of development
• UIC Developed original FAME model at national level
• Designed the model and prepared the original code in SAS
• Extended the design and rewrote the code in R
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Mesoscale Model: step by step
cmap.illinois.gov/catmug
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CMAP Implementation
• Testing model execution• Understanding new concepts• Linking to standard procedures• Results Validation
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Data Resources
• Basic demonstration uses currently available data:
– Freight Analysis Framework– County Business Patterns– Make-Use Tables– Regional Model Data– National Freight Networks
• Parameter estimation: – heuristic– empirical
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Recent Applications
• Tour Length• Tonnage Comparison• Circle Interchange
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Forecasting
• Agent-based Economic Extension– External infrastructure decisions, economic change, policy actions
– Combined effect of independent procurement and logistics business decisions
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Activity-Based Models• Application of an Activity-Based Model for Highway Pricing Studies in Chicago
• Transit Beyond Travel Time and Cost• Network Microsimulation Extension to Activity-Based Travel Model
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Highway Pricing Model
http://www.cmap.illinois.gov/mobility/roads/congestion-pricing
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Transit Modernization Model
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Bike Model
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ABM/DTA Integration4-step demand model
Static assignment
Trip tables
LOS skims for all
possible trips
Microsimulation ABM
Microsimulation DTA
List of individual
trips
Aggregate LOS skims
for all possible trips
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Advanced Modeling Practice at CMAP
Kermit WiesOctober 2014