ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

Protect Life and PropertyPromote Economic VitalityEnvironmental Stewardship Promote Fundamental Understanding

Science in Service to Society

Arguments for a major transition

The transition is a product of

(a) significant improvements in capability and

(b) demonstrated importance of the information for decision-

makers

Elements in the transition: An expansion of the forecasting family

As a result of specific needs Air quality, lightning, energy demand; uv, severe weather evacuations, agriculture, etc.

Elements in the transition: An expansion in the time scales of interest

Instrumented and pre-instrumented recordsWeather forecastsSeasonal-to interannual outlooksLong-term climate change

The Future: Environmental “Intel” Center(s)

Addressing Societal Needs

Integrated Observation SystemsData management and accessHigh Resolution coupled models Human Dimensions

Some Steps in the Transition

Promoting the transition from research to operationsAdding “Service” to “Climate” Focus on Communication

Transition from Research to Operations

How Effective is our Transition Process?

A strong research programA healthy infrastructure for transitionA strong interface with the user communityInternational observation and data access partnershipsContinuous evaluation processes

Climate Services

Evidence for a Growing DemandSome examples:

The Evolution of Hurricane Risk Application of ENSO ForecastsWeather DerivativesIPCC; National Assessments

Some Guiding Principles

The Activities and Elements of a “Service” must be User-Centric

Recognize evolving needs and capabilitiesPromote vigorous and comprehensive intersection between knowledge and its useSupport through active researchEvaluate and assess use and effectiveness continuously

Guiding Principles (continued)

Scope of the knowledge base must be retrospective and predictive

Continuous, reliable, accurate historical baseAccess to climate observations (includes paleo)Forecasts and outlooks, month to a year outCauses and character of natural variabilityLong-term climate simulations

Guiding Principles (continued)

An adequate climate services knowledge base requires active stewardship

Open and free exchange of dataTen basic principles of climate monitoringMultipurpose observations (in situ and satellite)Synergism observations and modelsRobust and easily accessible delivery systemNational modeling and analysis capabilityDedicated computational capability

Guiding Principles (continued)

Active and Defined Participation of Governments, Business, and Academia

Government – public goods and services; protection of life and propertyBusiness – motivated by market forces/client interestsAcademia – education and research/ interface with government and business

Key First Steps Toward a More Effective Climate Service

All agencies should ID climate-related observing systems, purpose, management, decision-makersUser-oriented experiments (free data access)Develop regional; place-based “laboratories”Seek out opportunities to combine efforts to serve multiple purposesCreate incentives – incentive for 10 principles and open exchange – support growth in capability designed by states or regions – success of the Oklahoma mesonetEducation initiatives

Communication as an Integral Element

Communicating uncertainty should be an integral part of providing information

Uncertainty is key to decision-making State why information is uncertain, not just the fact that it is uncertainState why information about uncertainty is important Use multiple measures of uncertainty Use multiple communication mechanisms

Communicating uncertainty and context shifts the burden and responsibility appropriately to the decision-maker

Add contextCommunicate what you know as fully as possible, rather than only what you think the decision-maker needs to know

Communication and dissemination of information should be an integral part of the process, not be an afterthought

Invest effort from the outsetEducation should be a goal Use multiple modes

Communication between information providers and users should not be a one-way street – two-way communication and feedback is essential

Success/failure/portrayal of forecasts determine the credibility of future forecasts

Expect mis-interpretation – correct errors quicklyAvoid over-selling forecasts or scienceFollow-up successful and failed forecasts with information

Diverse and different forecasts from multiple sources have both great value and have the potential to create confusion

Multiple forecasts drive improvementUse combined sources in providing information (e.g. web page)Label “official” and “research” forecasts to limit confusion

The Equivalent of an “Environmental Situation Room” or “Intel Center”

•Foundation - Atmospheric Sciences•Promote transition from research to operations•Expand the forecasting family (Climate Service)•Focus on Communication•Create Regional integrated enterprises