adrian hilton regional climate change coordinator climate change adaptation…

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Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

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Page 1: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Adrian Hilton

Regional Climate Change Coordinator

Climate Change Adaptation…

Page 2: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

18 Months ago….

No detailed picture of how climate might impact the region

No robust emissions inventory nor understanding of policy implications

Economic implications of climate change for the region unknown

?

Page 3: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

The ‘Bottom Line’ - what we need to deliver

Enhanced resilience of our infrastructure, communities and business and natural environment to climate change

Reductions in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of 80% - by 2050

Opportunities for competitive advantage and economic diversification realised

Page 4: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

What is Climate Change Adaptation?

measures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts

not a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities.

Adaptation

Physical actions e.g:

raising the height of sea defences

Increasing ventilation / cooling in buildings

Building ‘Adaptive Capacity’ e.g:

Raising awareness of impacts

Tools / context etc for decision makers

Page 5: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Coping range

Vulnerability

Time

Cli

mat

e v

aria

ble

Critical threshold

Planning time horizon

Future

Implementationof adaptation

Decisionto adapt

Lag

Ne

w c

op

ing

ra

ng

e

New critical threshold

PresentPast

Slide courtesy of UKCIP

Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation

Page 6: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

What can we expect in the North East?Changing weather patterns

Warmer, wetter winters

Hotter, drier summers

Reduction in soil moisture in summer

Increase in ‘high intensity’ rainfall events

Polarisation of rainfall

Higher incidence and severity of storm events

Changes is biodiversity

Changing patterns of public usage – natural environment

Page 7: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…
Page 8: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Resolution…

Page 9: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Issues…

Does not consider:

• Altitude

• Topography

• Proximity to coast etc

Gives:

• Broad, generic data –

• Warmer, wetter winters

• Hotter, drier summers

Page 10: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Climate Change Adaptation in the North East…

Page 11: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

3 Data Resolutions…….

Regional Sub-regional District

3 Spatial Levels…

Page 12: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Environment

Agency

Regional

Weather

Impact

Generator

Climate Change (2050s)…

Page 13: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Impacts…

Page 14: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Earwig modelling…

Does consider:

• Altitude

• Topography

• Proximity to coast etc

Gives: (caveat)

• High resolution

• Considerably more detailed

• Allows understanding of impacts at a level that enables ACTION

Page 15: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Why choose the 2050s?

Climate change is already happening

Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it

CC over next 30-50 yrs due to historic emissions

Within long-term planning horizons

Page 16: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

UK CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

2009

Page 17: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Summer average temperature

17

NE Englandcentral estimate

Medium emissions

Increased Tourism

Increased Heat stress

Infrastructure risks

Risks to biodiversity

Heat related deaths

Risk to Food Security

The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 5.8ºC

North East Study 2 – 2.3°C

Page 18: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases

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Reduced stream flow and water

quality

Increased drought

Subsidence

Decreased crop yields

Serious water stress

For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -35% and very unlikely to be higher than +1%

NE Englandcentral estimate

Medium emissions

North East Study mostly ~5% up to 10%

Page 19: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

For rainfall we see significant winter increases

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Increased winter flooding

Increased subsidence

Risks to urban drainage

Severe Transport disruption

Risks of national Infrastructure

For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +2% and very unlikely to be higher than +32%

NE Englandcentral estimate

Medium Emissions

North East Study 8 to 20%

Page 20: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Relative sea level rise(medium emissions, 50th percentile)

20North East Study 30cm

Page 21: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…
Page 22: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

Extreme temperatures

• Cold 1.1 to 1.7 ºC

(remains sub-zero)

• Hot 2.6 to 3.1 ºC

North East Outputs…

Page 23: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

3ºC doesn’t sound like much …

… it represents a rise in temperature comparable with the

global heating that occurred between the last Ice Age (15,000 years ago) and the 18th Century

this is projected for the 2050s

Page 24: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

2003 2050

Changes in our communities…

Page 25: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…
Page 26: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

We’re getting the data – we need to use it (wisely!)

Page 27: Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator Climate Change Adaptation…

“We are already seeing in the North East the thinking, action and sense of purpose to deliver real progress on fighting climate change”.

Joan Ruddock, Department of Energy and Climate Change Minister, 2009