Administrative Records and Administrative Records and Survey Research A Two-Survey Research A Two-

Pronged ApproachPronged ApproachPresented atPresented at

The Greening of LMI ForumThe Greening of LMI ForumDenver CO Denver CO May 6 2010May 6 2010

PresentersPresentersTom Gallagher ManagerTom Gallagher Manager

William (Tony) Glover Workforce Information SupervisorWilliam (Tony) Glover Workforce Information SupervisorDoug Leonard Principal EconomistDoug Leonard Principal Economist

Wyoming Department of Employment Research amp Wyoming Department of Employment Research amp PlanningPlanning

2

OverviewOverview

IntroductionIntroduction Data Sources UsedData Sources Used MethodologyMethodology Expected DeliverablesExpected Deliverables Next StepsNext Steps

3

IntroductionIntroduction Wyoming Community CollegesWyoming Community Colleges

Could not answer legislative requirement and Could not answer legislative requirement and needed employer satisfaction dataneeded employer satisfaction data

Administrative Records + Survey ResearchAdministrative Records + Survey Research Administrative Records (AR) provides the Administrative Records (AR) provides the

sample framesample frame Wyoming Lodging amp Restaurant AssocWyoming Lodging amp Restaurant Assoc

ldquoIn 1999 the Wyoming Lodging amp Restaurant Association (WLRA) created its Education Foundation with one major goal in mind creating a skilled workforce for Wyomingrsquos hospitality industry by establishing WHAM the Wyoming Hospitality Alliance Mentoring Program Through WHAM we hoped to offer hospitality school-to-career programs in 6-10 high schools across Wyoming by 2005rdquo

ROI on Culinary Arts Program Students gtgtgtgt Wage Records gtgtgtgt Employers

4

Fast-Forward to Present DayFast-Forward to Present Day LMI Improvement Grants present the same LMI Improvement Grants present the same

issues (making connections)issues (making connections) ldquohellipldquohellipassist those most impacted by recessionrdquoassist those most impacted by recessionrdquo ldquohellipldquohellipto teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to to teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to

get a ldquogreenrdquo jobget a ldquogreenrdquo job ldquohellipldquohellipto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquoto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquo

Direct scarce resources towards people Direct scarce resources towards people more likely to retain long-term workmore likely to retain long-term work

Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) description to longitudinal analysis and description to longitudinal analysis and predictionprediction

5

Data SourcesData Sources ldquoldquoUniverserdquo Data SetsUniverserdquo Data Sets

Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR)Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(QCEW)(QCEW) Driverrsquos License Database (DL)Driverrsquos License Database (DL) Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)

ldquoldquoSamplerdquo Data SetsSamplerdquo Data Sets Employment Services Database (ES)Employment Services Database (ES) Survey Instrument (Questionnaire)Survey Instrument (Questionnaire) Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and

benefit exhaustee filesbenefit exhaustee files

6

AR is Comprehensive buthellipAR is Comprehensive buthellip

Data not present in ARhellipData not present in ARhellip SkillsSkills TrainingTraining Time spent on efficiency remediation Time spent on efficiency remediation

etcetc OccupationOccupation Direct and indirect compensationDirect and indirect compensation Hours workedHours worked

7

Methodology Connecting AR and Methodology Connecting AR and Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Expected Start Date May 2010 Expected Start Date May 2010 Instrument amp introductory letter Instrument amp introductory letter

cognitive testing (University of cognitive testing (University of Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) completecomplete

First run of survey researchFirst run of survey research 29000 new hires29000 new hires 20000 made probability cutoff20000 made probability cutoff 4200 questionnaires mailed4200 questionnaires mailed

We welcome design inputWe welcome design input

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

2

OverviewOverview

IntroductionIntroduction Data Sources UsedData Sources Used MethodologyMethodology Expected DeliverablesExpected Deliverables Next StepsNext Steps

3

IntroductionIntroduction Wyoming Community CollegesWyoming Community Colleges

Could not answer legislative requirement and Could not answer legislative requirement and needed employer satisfaction dataneeded employer satisfaction data

Administrative Records + Survey ResearchAdministrative Records + Survey Research Administrative Records (AR) provides the Administrative Records (AR) provides the

sample framesample frame Wyoming Lodging amp Restaurant AssocWyoming Lodging amp Restaurant Assoc

ldquoIn 1999 the Wyoming Lodging amp Restaurant Association (WLRA) created its Education Foundation with one major goal in mind creating a skilled workforce for Wyomingrsquos hospitality industry by establishing WHAM the Wyoming Hospitality Alliance Mentoring Program Through WHAM we hoped to offer hospitality school-to-career programs in 6-10 high schools across Wyoming by 2005rdquo

ROI on Culinary Arts Program Students gtgtgtgt Wage Records gtgtgtgt Employers

4

Fast-Forward to Present DayFast-Forward to Present Day LMI Improvement Grants present the same LMI Improvement Grants present the same

issues (making connections)issues (making connections) ldquohellipldquohellipassist those most impacted by recessionrdquoassist those most impacted by recessionrdquo ldquohellipldquohellipto teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to to teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to

get a ldquogreenrdquo jobget a ldquogreenrdquo job ldquohellipldquohellipto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquoto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquo

Direct scarce resources towards people Direct scarce resources towards people more likely to retain long-term workmore likely to retain long-term work

Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) description to longitudinal analysis and description to longitudinal analysis and predictionprediction

5

Data SourcesData Sources ldquoldquoUniverserdquo Data SetsUniverserdquo Data Sets

Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR)Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(QCEW)(QCEW) Driverrsquos License Database (DL)Driverrsquos License Database (DL) Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)

ldquoldquoSamplerdquo Data SetsSamplerdquo Data Sets Employment Services Database (ES)Employment Services Database (ES) Survey Instrument (Questionnaire)Survey Instrument (Questionnaire) Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and

benefit exhaustee filesbenefit exhaustee files

6

AR is Comprehensive buthellipAR is Comprehensive buthellip

Data not present in ARhellipData not present in ARhellip SkillsSkills TrainingTraining Time spent on efficiency remediation Time spent on efficiency remediation

etcetc OccupationOccupation Direct and indirect compensationDirect and indirect compensation Hours workedHours worked

7

Methodology Connecting AR and Methodology Connecting AR and Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Expected Start Date May 2010 Expected Start Date May 2010 Instrument amp introductory letter Instrument amp introductory letter

cognitive testing (University of cognitive testing (University of Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) completecomplete

First run of survey researchFirst run of survey research 29000 new hires29000 new hires 20000 made probability cutoff20000 made probability cutoff 4200 questionnaires mailed4200 questionnaires mailed

We welcome design inputWe welcome design input

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

3

IntroductionIntroduction Wyoming Community CollegesWyoming Community Colleges

Could not answer legislative requirement and Could not answer legislative requirement and needed employer satisfaction dataneeded employer satisfaction data

Administrative Records + Survey ResearchAdministrative Records + Survey Research Administrative Records (AR) provides the Administrative Records (AR) provides the

sample framesample frame Wyoming Lodging amp Restaurant AssocWyoming Lodging amp Restaurant Assoc

ldquoIn 1999 the Wyoming Lodging amp Restaurant Association (WLRA) created its Education Foundation with one major goal in mind creating a skilled workforce for Wyomingrsquos hospitality industry by establishing WHAM the Wyoming Hospitality Alliance Mentoring Program Through WHAM we hoped to offer hospitality school-to-career programs in 6-10 high schools across Wyoming by 2005rdquo

ROI on Culinary Arts Program Students gtgtgtgt Wage Records gtgtgtgt Employers

4

Fast-Forward to Present DayFast-Forward to Present Day LMI Improvement Grants present the same LMI Improvement Grants present the same

issues (making connections)issues (making connections) ldquohellipldquohellipassist those most impacted by recessionrdquoassist those most impacted by recessionrdquo ldquohellipldquohellipto teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to to teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to

get a ldquogreenrdquo jobget a ldquogreenrdquo job ldquohellipldquohellipto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquoto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquo

Direct scarce resources towards people Direct scarce resources towards people more likely to retain long-term workmore likely to retain long-term work

Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) description to longitudinal analysis and description to longitudinal analysis and predictionprediction

5

Data SourcesData Sources ldquoldquoUniverserdquo Data SetsUniverserdquo Data Sets

Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR)Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(QCEW)(QCEW) Driverrsquos License Database (DL)Driverrsquos License Database (DL) Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)

ldquoldquoSamplerdquo Data SetsSamplerdquo Data Sets Employment Services Database (ES)Employment Services Database (ES) Survey Instrument (Questionnaire)Survey Instrument (Questionnaire) Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and

benefit exhaustee filesbenefit exhaustee files

6

AR is Comprehensive buthellipAR is Comprehensive buthellip

Data not present in ARhellipData not present in ARhellip SkillsSkills TrainingTraining Time spent on efficiency remediation Time spent on efficiency remediation

etcetc OccupationOccupation Direct and indirect compensationDirect and indirect compensation Hours workedHours worked

7

Methodology Connecting AR and Methodology Connecting AR and Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Expected Start Date May 2010 Expected Start Date May 2010 Instrument amp introductory letter Instrument amp introductory letter

cognitive testing (University of cognitive testing (University of Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) completecomplete

First run of survey researchFirst run of survey research 29000 new hires29000 new hires 20000 made probability cutoff20000 made probability cutoff 4200 questionnaires mailed4200 questionnaires mailed

We welcome design inputWe welcome design input

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

4

Fast-Forward to Present DayFast-Forward to Present Day LMI Improvement Grants present the same LMI Improvement Grants present the same

issues (making connections)issues (making connections) ldquohellipldquohellipassist those most impacted by recessionrdquoassist those most impacted by recessionrdquo ldquohellipldquohellipto teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to to teach workers the skills they needhelliprdquo to

get a ldquogreenrdquo jobget a ldquogreenrdquo job ldquohellipldquohellipto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquoto enhance the labor exchange functionrdquo

Direct scarce resources towards people Direct scarce resources towards people more likely to retain long-term workmore likely to retain long-term work

Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) Move from a cross-sectional (point in time) description to longitudinal analysis and description to longitudinal analysis and predictionprediction

5

Data SourcesData Sources ldquoldquoUniverserdquo Data SetsUniverserdquo Data Sets

Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR)Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(QCEW)(QCEW) Driverrsquos License Database (DL)Driverrsquos License Database (DL) Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)

ldquoldquoSamplerdquo Data SetsSamplerdquo Data Sets Employment Services Database (ES)Employment Services Database (ES) Survey Instrument (Questionnaire)Survey Instrument (Questionnaire) Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and

benefit exhaustee filesbenefit exhaustee files

6

AR is Comprehensive buthellipAR is Comprehensive buthellip

Data not present in ARhellipData not present in ARhellip SkillsSkills TrainingTraining Time spent on efficiency remediation Time spent on efficiency remediation

etcetc OccupationOccupation Direct and indirect compensationDirect and indirect compensation Hours workedHours worked

7

Methodology Connecting AR and Methodology Connecting AR and Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Expected Start Date May 2010 Expected Start Date May 2010 Instrument amp introductory letter Instrument amp introductory letter

cognitive testing (University of cognitive testing (University of Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) completecomplete

First run of survey researchFirst run of survey research 29000 new hires29000 new hires 20000 made probability cutoff20000 made probability cutoff 4200 questionnaires mailed4200 questionnaires mailed

We welcome design inputWe welcome design input

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

5

Data SourcesData Sources ldquoldquoUniverserdquo Data SetsUniverserdquo Data Sets

Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR)Unemployment Insurance Wage Records (WR) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(QCEW)(QCEW) Driverrsquos License Database (DL)Driverrsquos License Database (DL) Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)Workersrsquo Compensation Database (WC)

ldquoldquoSamplerdquo Data SetsSamplerdquo Data Sets Employment Services Database (ES)Employment Services Database (ES) Survey Instrument (Questionnaire)Survey Instrument (Questionnaire) Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimant and

benefit exhaustee filesbenefit exhaustee files

6

AR is Comprehensive buthellipAR is Comprehensive buthellip

Data not present in ARhellipData not present in ARhellip SkillsSkills TrainingTraining Time spent on efficiency remediation Time spent on efficiency remediation

etcetc OccupationOccupation Direct and indirect compensationDirect and indirect compensation Hours workedHours worked

7

Methodology Connecting AR and Methodology Connecting AR and Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Expected Start Date May 2010 Expected Start Date May 2010 Instrument amp introductory letter Instrument amp introductory letter

cognitive testing (University of cognitive testing (University of Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) completecomplete

First run of survey researchFirst run of survey research 29000 new hires29000 new hires 20000 made probability cutoff20000 made probability cutoff 4200 questionnaires mailed4200 questionnaires mailed

We welcome design inputWe welcome design input

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

6

AR is Comprehensive buthellipAR is Comprehensive buthellip

Data not present in ARhellipData not present in ARhellip SkillsSkills TrainingTraining Time spent on efficiency remediation Time spent on efficiency remediation

etcetc OccupationOccupation Direct and indirect compensationDirect and indirect compensation Hours workedHours worked

7

Methodology Connecting AR and Methodology Connecting AR and Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Expected Start Date May 2010 Expected Start Date May 2010 Instrument amp introductory letter Instrument amp introductory letter

cognitive testing (University of cognitive testing (University of Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) completecomplete

First run of survey researchFirst run of survey research 29000 new hires29000 new hires 20000 made probability cutoff20000 made probability cutoff 4200 questionnaires mailed4200 questionnaires mailed

We welcome design inputWe welcome design input

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

7

Methodology Connecting AR and Methodology Connecting AR and Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Expected Start Date May 2010 Expected Start Date May 2010 Instrument amp introductory letter Instrument amp introductory letter

cognitive testing (University of cognitive testing (University of Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) Wyoming Survey Analysis Center) completecomplete

First run of survey researchFirst run of survey research 29000 new hires29000 new hires 20000 made probability cutoff20000 made probability cutoff 4200 questionnaires mailed4200 questionnaires mailed

We welcome design inputWe welcome design input

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

8

Instrument QuestionsInstrument Questions

2a What was this workerrsquos rate of pay as of November 12 2009

Please include base rate of pay tips commissions and othermonetary compensation If the worker was not employed as ofNovember 12 2009 please report his or her last pay rate in

OctoberNovember or December 20091048710 Hour1048710 Week1048710 2 Weeks1048710 Month1048710 Other (specify egsupplementalinsurance)____________________

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

9

Instrument Questions (2)Instrument Questions (2)4a On November 12 2009 what was this workerrsquos occupation

(For example secretary accountant personnelmanager Please print in the shaded spaces)

4b On November 12 2009 what were this workerrsquos most important activities or duties (For example typing and filingreconciling financial records directing hiring policies Please print in the shaded spaces)

5 Check the qualifications required for the type of work described in questions 4a and 4b (Please check all that apply)

On-the-job training Associatersquos degree None requiredPostsecondary technical training Bachelorrsquos degree or greater Other (specify for example a course in medical terminology) _______________________________Work experience in related occupations Licensure or certification occupations

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

10

Instrument Questions (3)Instrument Questions (3)6 How would you rate the level of importance for reading comprehension

for this job (Involves understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents)

7 How would you rate the level of importance for coordination (Involves adjusting actions in relation to coworkersrsquo actions)

8 How would you rate the level of importance for critical thinking for this job (Involves using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions or approaches to problems)

9 How would you rate the level of importance of active listening for this job (Involves giving full attention to what other people are saying and taking time to understand the points being made)

10 How would you rate the level of importance of active learning for this job (Involves understanding the implications of new information for both current and future problem solving and decision making)

11 How would you rate the level of importance of learning strategies for this job (Involves selecting and using traininginstructional methods and procedures appropriate for the situation when learning or teaching new things)

12 How would you rate your overall satisfaction with the employeersquos work skills (for example cooking customer service skills)

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

11

Instrument Questions (4)Instrument Questions (4)13 In your opinion what one skill is most

important to this job It could be one of the above or it could be another skill

14 On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means ldquoNo Hoursrdquo and 5 means ldquoAll of the Timerdquo how would you rate the extent to which this job is involved in increasing energy efficiency utilizing or developing renewable energy resources or preserving andor restoring the environment

15 Is this person still employed at your firm Yes No Donrsquot know

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

12

MethodologyMethodology

Questionnaire Items Tested in Questionnaire Items Tested in Previous ProjectsPrevious Projects 2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo2a Tomrsquos ldquopastrdquo 4a ndash 4b American Community Survey4a ndash 4b American Community Survey 5 Wyoming Community College Surveys5 Wyoming Community College Surveys 6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills6 ndash 12 ONet green jobs skills 13 Open-ended for content 13 Open-ended for content

analysistext mininganalysistext mining 14 Northern Plains Consortium14 Northern Plains Consortium

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

13

Methodology (contd)Methodology (contd)

Other states performing similar Other states performing similar researchresearch NE SD MT IANE SD MT IA

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

14

New Hires Survey DefinitionsNew Hires Survey Definitions

New HiresNew Hires People who prior to the People who prior to the quarter of interest had no work quarter of interest had no work history with the employer(s) who history with the employer(s) who hired themhired them

Attached New HiresAttached New Hires New hires New hires who were still working for the same who were still working for the same employer(s) one quarter lateremployer(s) one quarter later

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

15

Distributions of New Hires and Attached New Hires 2009Q2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

16

Distributions of New Hires by Sex

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Male Information Not Available

Sex

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

17

Distributions of New Hires by Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ Unknown

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

New Hires (2009Q2) Remaining New Hires (2009Q3)

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

18

2009Q2 New Hire Retention Rates in 2009Q3 by Industry

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agricu

lture

Mini

ng

Utilitie

s

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Prof

Scient

ific a

nd T

ech

Svcs

Mgt

of C

ompa

nies a

nd E

nter

prise

s

Admini

strat

ive a

nd S

upor

t

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts E

nt a

nd R

ec

Accom

odat

ion a

nd F

ood

Servic

es

Other

Ser

vices

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent P

ublic

Adm

in

Industry

Ret

enti

on

Rat

e

Retention Rate Average Retention Rate

Average = 695

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

19

Sample Selection ProceduresSample Selection Procedures Step 1Step 1 Extract workers from WR who Extract workers from WR who

were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 were new hires anytime between 2005Q1 and 2009Q1and 2009Q1

Step 2Step 2 Of those extracted in Step 1 Of those extracted in Step 1 retain those who were still working for the retain those who were still working for the same employer one quarter after hiresame employer one quarter after hire

Step 3Step 3 Of those remaining from Step 2 Of those remaining from Step 2 fit a binary logistic regression model using fit a binary logistic regression model using work history and demographics to predict work history and demographics to predict retention (Yes or No)retention (Yes or No)

Step 4Step 4 Any record with a probability gt Any record with a probability gt 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo 05 was classified as ldquopredicted retainedrdquo while remaining records were classified as while remaining records were classified as ldquopredicted not retainedrdquoldquopredicted not retainedrdquo

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

20

Sample Selection (2)Sample Selection (2)

Step 5Step 5 Check accuracy of the model Check accuracy of the model against fitted data (71 accurate)against fitted data (71 accurate)

Step 6Step 6 Export model parameters Export model parameters Step 7Step 7 Using the variables employed Using the variables employed

in the fitted model score workers from in the fitted model score workers from the next quarter (2009Q2)the next quarter (2009Q2)

Step 8Step 8 Extract workers scoring 05 or Extract workers scoring 05 or greater ndash this is the sample frame greater ndash this is the sample frame (Slide 17)(Slide 17)

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

21

Sample Selection (3)Sample Selection (3)

Step 9Step 9 The sample amount desired from The sample amount desired from each industry was determined using the each industry was determined using the following parametersfollowing parameters Desired Measurement Error Desired Measurement Error plusmn5plusmn5 Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)Probability = 05 (gives maximum sample size)

Because of the small size of some sample Because of the small size of some sample frame cells a finite population correction frame cells a finite population correction factor was used This slightly reduced the factor was used This slightly reduced the number of required observationsnumber of required observations

The final sample selection for the trial run The final sample selection for the trial run is shown on the next slideis shown on the next slide

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

22

Sample SelectionSample Selection

Sample Frame

Local Government

Public Administration

added later

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

23

Other Sampling ConsiderationsOther Sampling Considerations

Non-overlap with other surveys (eg Non-overlap with other surveys (eg OES and Base Line Surveys)OES and Base Line Surveys)

Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)Certainty Units (UI Labor Exchange)

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

24

ResultsResults Combine questionnaire responses with ARCombine questionnaire responses with AR ldquoldquothose most impactedrdquothose most impactedrdquo

Claimants and exhausteesClaimants and exhaustees Occupations and skills of those finding workOccupations and skills of those finding work

ldquoldquoneeded skillsrdquoneeded skillsrdquo What skills are associated with high What skills are associated with high

compensationcompensation Link skills to occupational projectionsLink skills to occupational projections

ldquoldquoenhance labor exchangerdquoenhance labor exchangerdquo Identify occupation and wage progression amp Identify occupation and wage progression amp

retention rates for those using and those not retention rates for those using and those not using the ESusing the ES

Identify potential markets into which ES could Identify potential markets into which ES could expandexpand

To emphasize To emphasize Moving toward explanation with modeling Moving toward explanation with modeling

and quasi-experimental methodsand quasi-experimental methods

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

25

Porosity of the Labor MarketPorosity of the Labor Market

Must use a multi-state approachMust use a multi-state approach Viewing one statersquos results in a Viewing one statersquos results in a

vacuum provides an incomplete vacuum provides an incomplete picturepicture

Movement of workers is an important Movement of workers is an important component in any labor market component in any labor market interventions or monitoringinterventions or monitoring

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

26

Wyoming CES Employment 2005 - 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

Date

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00s)

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

27

Number of Private Sector Hires in Wyoming 2005 - 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Hir

es

Mining Construction Manufacturing Education amp Health Leisure amp Hospitality

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

28

Number of 1992 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

112318

94658

84247

76875

7158368065

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

79

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

29

Number of 2000 Worker Cohort Age 16-34 Still Working in Wyoming

116229

96162

8557278899

7471971102

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

76

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

30

Age Distribution1992

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

31

Age Distribution2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75

Age

Nu

mb

er

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

32

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Non-Resident

Resident

1992

2009

Proportion of Residents Working in Wyoming

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

33

Counties that border other states

Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Border counties account for 446 million employeesor 34 percent of US total employment of 1296 millionThey also account for 26 million establishments or33 percent of US total establishments of 80 million

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

34 Definition httpwwwcoworkforcecomlmiWRAHighTechpdf

Commuting from Colorado Front Range Counties to Laramie and Albany County WY

80

90

100

110

120

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

Date

Lar

amie

Co

un

ty

9

12

15

18

21

Alb

any

Co

un

ty

Laramie County (Left Axis) Albany County (Right Axis)

Counties Adams Arapahoe Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Pueblo Teller Weld

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

35

Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants 2000-2010 (Normalized)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Date

O

ut

of

Sta

te C

on

tin

ued

Cla

iman

ts

Out of State Claimants

12-Month Trailing Moving Average(Claims-Weighted)

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

36

Challenges and LimitationsChallenges and Limitations

Labor Market PorosityLabor Market Porosity Funding SustainabilityFunding Sustainability Coordination of state evaluations Coordination of state evaluations

under WIA under WIA sectsect136(e) and evaluations of 136(e) and evaluations of the Secretary under WIA the Secretary under WIA sectsect172172

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

37

Future WorkFuture Work

Post-hoc control group analysis using Post-hoc control group analysis using propensity scoring methodpropensity scoring method See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi See ldquoPost Injury Wage Loss A Quasi

Experimental Designrdquo Experimental Designrdquo httpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreporthttpdoestatewyusLMIpost_injuryreportpdfpdf for details for details

38

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