addis ababa_chorching goh - urbanization in asia

8/6/2019 Addis Ababa_Chorching Goh - Urbanization in Asia

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Urbanization in AsiaUrbanization in Asia A Strategy for Inclusive Urbanization A Strategy for Inclusive Urbanization

Indermit Gill and

Chor-Ching Goh

The World Bank



3

Sriperumbudur in 1991

Just a small village where Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated

Source:s http://



4

Sriperumbudur today

The home of Hyundai and others on the Chennai-Bangalore Highway

Source:s http://



5

Source:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Kp1mQeobrgo/SZvXBdJBxlI/AAAAAAAAAJU

/U7clXduYE9E/s1600-h/shenzhen+farm.jpg

Source:

http://www.newsgd.com/specials/30yearsreform/achievments/content/images/att

achement/jpg/site26/20081126/0010dc53fa040a9730a527.jpg

Shenzhen in 1980

A fishing village of several thousand near Guangzhou



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Source: http://www.littleredbook.cn/wp-

content/uploads/2009/02/littleredbook_dot_cn_city-

snapshot_shenzhen.jpg

Source: http://al.china-

embassy.org/eng/zggk/W020081223055375525157.jpg

Shenzhen today

A city of 7 million, specializing in electronic manufacturing



7

Seoul in 1925

Gwanghwa Gate, the main entrance of Gyeongbokgung palace

Source:s http://



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Seoul in 1962

Sejong-Ro: Same location, same street

Source:s http://



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Seoul today

Same street²Sejong-Ro²the busiest in downtown Seoul

Source:s http://



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Sriperumbudur

and IndiaEconomic density in India, a country still ambivalent abouturbanization

www.worldbank.org/wdr2009



11

Shenzhen

and ChinaEconomic density in China, a country in the midst of anaggressive urbanization




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Seoul

and South KoreaEconomic density in South Korea, a country that has seen thefastest urbanization of all time




13

The 2009 WDR

Chapters 1, 4 and 7 develop an Urbanization Strategy




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14

An Urbanization Strategy

� Should be realistic

± Must recognize some stylized facts observedfor early, recent, and late urbanizers

� Should be rigorous

± Must be informed by economic analysis thatidentifies the drivers of these changes

� Should be implementable ± Must identify a sequenced set of public policies

for places at different stages of urbanization



15

15

The Elements of an

Urbanization Strategy

1. Recognize stylized facts

� A summary of Chapter 1: Density.2. Utilize insights from analysis

� A summary of Chapter 4: Scale Economiesand Agglomeration.

3. Identify practical policies� A summary of Chapter 7: Policies for an

Inclusive Urbanization.



1616

The Facts

� Urbanization is fastest at low incomelevels.

± Because the sectoral transformation fromagriculture to industry happens early.

� Today¶s urbanization is not unprecedented.

± The pace and pattern of urbanization is similar for early, middle, and late developers.

� Portfolios of settlements tend to bestable. ± Metropolises, cities, and towns appear to serve

fundamental economic functions.



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Urbanization happens early

Much of urbanization happens before countries get to $5,000 per capita

Source: WDR 2009.



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The pace of urbanization

has not changed much

Urbanization¶s speed is not different from that in the 19th century

Source: WDR 2009, Chapter 1.



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N or has its distribution

The relative size distribution of urban settlements is stable over time




2020

Primate cities are similar

A rapid rise in size, then a leveling off




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What is different? Size

The absolute size of the world¶s largest cities is much larger today

Source: WDR 2009.



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What is not? Slums

³The first encampments of Baltimore¶s poor were at thewater¶s edge. Time andagain, outbreaks of yellowfever, malaria, cholera,typhoid fever swept the town.By the 1890s, Polishimmigrants had supplanted

the Irish and Germans,creating a ghetto of a newdimension.´

³In the 15 years between 1930 and the end of the war,the population of Singapore doubled to a million people.The physical condition of much of the existing housing was dismal.´

³The houses are poky and ugly, and insanitary andcomfortless «distributed in incredibly filthyslums´ in London. --George Orwell

Early, middle, and later urbanizers all had slums



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Slums have precedents

³Although this is ahugely expensive area inParis to live today, inVictor Hugo¶s day it was

a slum area, close to theBastille Prison.´

Melbourne's most infamous slum, Little Bourke Street, « by the1880s was completely filled up with all kinds of filth comprising

garbage tips, putrid liquid, straw rags, and other rubbish« ³

³Katajanokka¶s transformationfrom a low-income housing

area of Helsinki.A

former slum had become aprestigious residential area for the privileged classes.´

Early, middle, and later urbanizers all had slums



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Towns: internal economies

Towns facilitate internal scale economies which come from large plantsizes and are high in heavy industries, and low in light industries

Source: http://



2727

Cities: localization economies

Cities facilitate localization economies that come from sharing inputsand infrastructure, and competition among firms in the industry

Source:s http://



2828

M etropolises: urbanization

economies

Metropolises facilitate urbanization economies which come fromindustrial and cultural diversity that fosters innovation

Source:s http://



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The Policies

� Recognizing complementary functions of places helps to make urbanization inclusive. ± Principle: maximize agglomeration economies through

economic integration.

� Policies become complex as urbanizationadvances.

± Principle: More policy instruments are needed in placeswhere urbanization is advanced than where it has justbegun.

� Prioritization helps to facilitate inclusive

urbanization at all stages of development. ± Principle: Start with common institutions, then also

connective infrastructure, and only then targetedinterventions.



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Integration gets harder«

«. as urbanization advances, and more policy instruments are needed

Institutions to encouragedensity in Popayan,Colombia

Institutions and infrastructureto encourage density andreduce distance inBucaramanga, Colombia

Institutions, infrastructure andinterventions to encouragedensity, reduce distance, andlower divisions in Bogota



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� Indicator : Urban shares of 25 to 50percent

� Priority: Neutrality between ruraland urban areas� Instrument : Spatially blind

³institutions´1. Provide basic social services such as

schooling, sanitation, streets and security

2. Ensure functional rural and urban landmarkets

� Principal responsibility : Centralgovernment.

For areas of incipient urbanization:

Areas in Korea



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� Indicator : Urban shares of between 50 to75 percent

� Priority : Connectivity between urban andrural areas, and within urban areas.

� Instruments: Institutions, and spatiallyconnective infrastructure

1. Provide basic social services

2. Ensure functional land markets3. Invest in rural-urban and inter-urban infrastructure

� Principal responsibilities: Central andstate governments

For areas with intermediate urbanization:

Changsha in China



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� Indicator : Urban shares of >75 percent� Priority : Livability of urban areas.

� Instruments: Institutions, infrastructure,and spatially targeted interventions

1. Institute basic social services and ensurefunctional land markets

2. Invest in rural-urban and inter-urbaninfrastructure

3. Intervene to integrate slums and improve theenvironment

� Principal responsibilities: Central,state, and local governments

For areas with advanced urbanization:

Bogota in Colombia



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Calibrating policies

Stages: Incipient Intermediate Advanced

Goals: Build density Build densityReduce distance

Build densityReduce distanceE

liminate divisionInstruments: 1 2 3

Institutions

Infrastructure

Interventions

An ³I for a D´²An instrument per dimension of urbanization¶s difficulty



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Institutions

� England 16th century:enclosure movement in

15

00; Enclosure Act 1604

� Denmark 18th century: Abolition of ³villenage´ in1760; communal to privateland holdings

� USA 19th

century: 1862Homestead Act ± thefoundation of property rights

Land tenure security and property rights

Frihedsstøtten (the pillar of freedom) in Copenhagen,commemorating the abolition of villenage



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Institutions

� England: 18th-19th century: LandEnquiry Commission; 1832 Reform

Acts; Land valuation decrees

� Sweden, 1960s-70s: RoyalHousing Commission in 1945;Million Homes Programme

� Hong Kong, 1930s-70s: 1935 Housing Commission and Town

Planning Ordinances; first land-usestrategy ³Zoning Plan´ in 1963

� Republic of Korea, 1980s-90s:basic amenities and property rights

Ease of land use conversion, basic services

Frihedsstøtten today



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Institutions and Infrastructure

� Greater London, 18th-19th century: Land valuationdecrees; underground; The Housing of the WorkingClasses Act 1890 and Cheap Trains for LondonWorkers Bill 1890

� New York Area, 19th-20th century: 1916 zoningresolution; 1938 City Planning Commission; 1961zoning law.

� Hong Kong, 1930s-80s: 1935

Housing Commissionand Town Planning Ordinance (amended overtime);1963 first land-use strategy ³Zoning Plan´.

� Bangkok Metro Area, 2000s: zoning and parkingspaces; traffic demand controls.

Land markets, transportation



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Institutions, Infrastructure and

Interventions

� London, 19th century: ease of conversion rules, expansivetransport infrastructure, affordable housing near London.

� New York, 19

th

-20

th

century: zoning rules which respond tomarket needs, integrated transport networks.

� Hong Kong ,1930s-80s: responsive land market institutions:evolving Town Planning Ordinances amended over time toaddress transport and housing needs.

� Singapore, 1960s-80s: responsive zoning laws (reflected in

rising floor-area ratios), expanding transport links, publichousing programs.

� Seoul, 1980s-90s: universal basic amenities; propertyrights; and credit for slum dwellers to become home owners.

Land use conversion, transport, housing



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Conclusion: 3 Asian stories

� India: fighting urbanization.

± The story of Mumbai since

1980.� China: facilitating urbanization.

± The story of Guangzhou since1980.

� South Korea: successful urbanization.

± The story of Seoul since 1950.



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M umbai: fighting density

With poor land use regulations and poor infrastructure



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M umbai: Infrastructure

People die every day on Mumbai¶s trains



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M umbai: Social services

Squatting and squalor



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M umbai: Slums

Half of Mumbai¶s citizens live in slums



� Nanzhongzhou Street,Beijing 1980s

� Nanzhongzhou Street 2007

China: Facilitating density



Street scene, 1978 Street scene, 2008

Guangzhou: Then and Now



Binhai Avenue, 1990and 2008

H aikou, then

and now



Financial District

1990 and 2008

H aikou, then

and now



48

Source: Aving,network

Seoul in the 1950s

Cheonggye river, and the biggest slum in Seoul



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Seoul in the 1970s

A highway is built on the river, through and over the slums



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Seoul in the 1980s

More infrastructure and new businesses next to Cheonggye-cheon, the slums were moved to other parts of the city



51

Source:

Seoul in 2009

Cheonggyecheon in 2005: Mayor Lee Myungbak, the current presidentof South Korea, removed the highway and recovered the riverfront



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� A large part of urbanization is over by the timea country reaches upper middle income²viz.,levels of per capita income of about $3,500.

� The relationship between income andurbanization is not different for early and later developers.

� The relative size of urban settlements within acountry is similar for countries at differentlevels of income, and so is stable over time.

Has to recognize some stylized facts



5353


� Towns like Sriperumbudur enable firms andfarms to exploit the advantages that come withsize² ³internal scale economies´

� Cities like Shenzhen allow firms in similar industries to localize and become efficient²´localization economies´

� Metropolises like Seoul encourage learning andinnovation that comes from industrial diversity²´urbanization economies´

Should be based on rigorous analysis



5454


� I ncipient urbanizers should lay the institutionalgroundwork for the provision of basic and social

services and to ensure functional land markets, inboth rural and urban areas.

� I ntermediate stages of urbanization require, inaddition, investments in connective infrastructureto widen access to advantages of growingeconomic density.

� Advanced urbanization often requires²in additionto institutions and infrastructure²place-basedinterventions such as slum developmentprograms.

M ust identify policy priorities



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Prioritization: An ³I for a D´

Stages: Incipient Intermediate Advanced

Institutions

Infrastructure

Interventions

Calibrating the Policy Response



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Conclusion

� Recognize that urbanization isnecessary .

± Don¶t fight, f acilitate.

� Recognize that urbanization becomesmore complex as it advances.

± First the instit utions, then the inf rastr uct ure, thentargeted interventions where necessary.

� Recognize that urbanization will not beclean and orderly .

± The goal should be an incl usive urbanization.



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For more information

� World Development Report 2009:Reshaping Economic Geography

± www.worldbank.org/wdr2009� Indermit Gill

± [email protected]

� Chorching Goh

± [email protected]

addis ababa_chorching goh - urbanization in asia

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