Adding a Spatial Dimension to Research With Historical Census Data

John R. LoganBrown University

With the support of funding from NIH and NSF.

Cities in Study Sample by Population Size and Rank in 1880

Rank City Population Rank City Population Rank City Population

1 New York City, NY .. 1,206,299 14 Washington, DC *. 147,293 30 Kansas City, MO... 55,7852 Philadelphia, PA. 847,170 15 Newark, NJ.... 136,508 33 Columbus, OH.. 51,647

3 Brooklyn, NY * 566,663 16 Louisville, KY 123,758 34 Paterson, NJ. 51,031

4 Chicago, IL... 503,185 17 Jersey City, NJ 120,722 36 Charleston, SC 49,984

5 Boston, MA *.. 362,839 18 Detroit, MI... 116,340 38 Minneapolis, MN... 46,8876 St. Louis, MO. 350,518 19 Milwaukee, WI.. 115,587 40 Nashville, TN. 43,350

7 Baltimore, MD. 332,313 20 Providence, RI *.. 104,857 43 Hartford, CT.. 42,015

8 Cincinnati, OH 255,139 21 Albany, NY.... 90,758 45 St. Paul, MN.. 41,473

9 San Francisco, CA.. 233,959 22 Rochester, NY.. 89,366 49 Atlanta, GA... 37,409

10 New Orleans, LA 216,090 23 Allegheny ,PA * 78,682 50 Denver, CO... 35,629

11 Cleveland, OH. 160,146 24 Indianapolis, IN. 75,056 51 Oakland, CA. 34,555

12 Pittsburgh, PA *. 156,389 25 Richmond, VA. 63,600 54 Memphis, TN. 33,592

13 Buffalo, NY... 155,134  26 New Haven, CT 62,882  63 Omaha, NE.. 30,518

Adding a spatial dimension: Technical challenges of mapping a 19th century city

1.Identifying enumeration districts when the descriptions have been lost

2.Geocoding address data from the 1880 census manuscripts (5 million records)

District 76 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of Monument Street, then North-West of Hillen Street, East of Jones Falls to Center Street, South-West of Centre to Front Street, East and South-East of Front Street, Then

North-East of Forest StreetDistrict 77 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of Monument Street, Then South-West of Forest Street, North and North-West of Front Street, North-East of

Centre Street to Jones Falls, East of Jones FallsDistrict 78 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of

Madison Street, to Harford Avenue, East of Harford Avenue, Then South of Chew Street, West of Ensor Street, Then North of Monument Street, and East of

Jones FallsDistrict 79 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of Eager Street, West of Greenmount Avenue, North of

Madison Street, East of Jones FallsDistrict 80 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of Eager Street, West of Ensor Street, & North of Chew

Street, West of Harford Avenue, Then North of Madison Street, East of Greenmount Avenue

District 81 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of Chase Street, West and North-West of Harford Avenue,

North of Eager Street, East of the FallsDistrict 82 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of John Street, West of Harford Avenue, North of Chase

Street, East of Greenmount AvenueDistrict 83 Baltimore City: 8th Ward: South of North Avenue, West of Harford Avenue & North of John St., West of Greenmount Avenue, Then North of Chase

Street, East of Jones Falls

Inferring theboundaries

Adapting the geocodingaddress file

EDs filled in bygeocoded addreses

Estimating a discrete choice model

Taking every adult male on every street segment in Newark –

1.What are the significant associations between the person’s characteristics and characteristics of the street segment’s population (e.g., the neighbors) that account for why the person lives there vs. somewhere else?

2.How are these associations similar or different for Germans, Irish, or British 1st and 2nd generation persons?

Log-odds Coefficients of Predictors on Neighborhood ChoiceIrish German British

Neighbors:%Yankee -.008* -.013** .008**%Black -.016** -.016** -.015**%German -.010*** .005 -.010***%Irish .014*** -.011*** .002%British -.003 -.017*** .010*Mean SEI -.018 -.027* -.010Self x Neighbors:Foreign-born * %Yankee -.002 -.007 -.011***Foreign-born * %Group .005 .007** .014***Foreign-born * Mean SEI -.014 .001 -.011SEI * %Yankee .009** .008* .007**SEI * %Group -.003 -.002 .000SEI * Mean SEI .033*** .054*** .043***Married with child * %Yankee .001 .003 .001Married with child * %Group .002 .004 .009**Married with child * Mean SEI -.010 -.010 -.022***

American Communities Project website – see also Social Explorer

Washington 1940 % professional

We are familiar with research questions that require microdata samples. The minimal steps toward spatial analysis also require data for census tracts. Creating linked files of microdata and tract data provides the possibility for multilevel analysis: who lives where and with what consequences?

The cutting edge questions and methodologies of spatial analysis require flexible creation of spatial data and geographies – built from high density microdata that can be geocoded. What is a neighborhood and at what scale to people form communities? Why do people live where they do? What are the processes of residential mobility, assimilation or separation? How are these related to occupation, education, nativity, marital choice, family formation?

This can be achieved. For 1940 we already have some tract-level data as well as the tract boundaries.

It will be natural to create a data file for multi-level analysis: data on individuals, households, and census tracts. A high-density microdata sample is required to create new and flexibly defined tract variables.

The street grid in 1940 is much more similar to the present time than was true for 1880.

If addresses are carefully transcribed, geocoding will enable spatial analysis at the level of points, allowing us to define neighborhoods based on population patterns.

For materials presented here, see:

www.s4.brown.edu/utp

www.s4.brown.edu/hstrcensus/query40/1940index.htm

(in development)