Adaptive Trend Based Optimization

What’s the bigger concept ?

"With the past, we can see trajectories into the current and future - both catastrophic and

creative projections."

John Ralston Saul

DEFINITIONS

TREND ANALYSIS & TREND BASED OPTIMIZATION

1

Trend analysis is a structural mapping of expected changes in the behavior of

societies, markets, and the consumers who drive them.

Trend Analysis ?

General

Trend analysis is the process which is used to identify major and minor trends

in ad consumption and response behavior.

Trend Analysis ?

In Our Case

The ad response stream is analyzed in real time and the ad delivery is adapted

to respond to the trends (patterns) identified. This will help in optimizing

the ad spend and ROI effectively.

Trend Based Optimization ?

HOW DOES IT HELP ?

Value proposition for ADATRIX

2

If in a time window, some trend is detected we can achieve real time

optimization by targeting on parameters which define this window.

This will provide key trend insights to advertisers which can be used in future

campaigns.

The trend data will add real-time intelligence to campaigns

How this will help ?

Real Time Targeting

Optimizations

Trend analysis can also be helpful in determining the bid pricing behavior in the

open exchange.

Help in knowing the market resistance/support and determining

optimal pricings.

Can help in price regulations. This can be can an added parameter in our bidding

algorithms.

How this will help ?

Real TimeBidding

Optimizations

WHERE DOES IT FIT ?

The Flow

3

Ad is delivered to consumers.

Consumers responds by seeing or clicking or filling a form

Response stream comes to Adatrix

The stream is analyzed in real time for patterns. The scores are updated to reflect

the trend

This intelligence is used to adapt and serve the next ads

Where does it fit ?

IMPORTANT QUESTIONS / POINTS

Points which need more thinking

4

Pattern detection ( What defines a pattern ?)

Pattern prediction( Based on past trend data the ability to

predict a pattern early)

Identification of key parameters which define the trend

Adapting the ad delivery to respond to the trend in real time

Crucial Elements

HOW DO WE DO IT ?

Trend Analysis, Algos, Examples and Methodology

5

Forex trading Algos for spotting Trends

3 Line Break Chart – Forex Trading Example

Trend based rules for a three-line break chart:

Buy when a white line emerges after three adjacent black lines (a "white turnaround line").

Sell when a black line appears after three adjacent white lines (a "black turnaround line").

Avoid trading in "trendless" markets where the lines alternate between black and white.

Line Break Chart – Advantage and Disadvantage

An advantage of Three Line Break charts is that there is no arbitrary fixed reversal amount. It is the price action which gives the indication of a reversal.

The disadvantage of Three Line Break charts is that the signals are generated after the new trend is well under way.

Technical Indicators – Parameters for Algo

TREND ANALYSIS - OVERVIEW

Trend Analysis Introduction

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Trend Analysis

Peak can be defined as the highest high of an uptrend while a Trough can be defined as the lowest low of a downtrend.

Peaks & Troughs

Trend Analysis

Defining the Trend

Identify Trends within trends

Short term trends Consist of either higher highs or lower

lows

Long term trends Consist of succession of higher peaks or

lower troughs

Trend Analysis

Short Term : Can be defined with 3 bar break Long Term : After a lower peak is made the uptrend ends when a bar breaks through the trough. ( Image above )

The End of a Trend

Trend Analysis

Trend Line

Uptrend: Trend lines for uptrends join the lows Downtrend: Trend lines for downtrends join the highs

Trend Analysis

Trend Channel

The picture above shows a downtrend channel Once the line crosses above the channel, signals a possible change in trend

INSIGHTS FROM STOCK MARKET

Fibonacci Sequence and Golden ratios, Elliot Wave Theory

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Use of Fibonacci Sequence

Fibonacci sequence can help to forecast support and/or resistance as well as to suggest potential target levels for existing trends

&Calculate the timing of future market turning points.

Use of Fibonacci Sequence

Markets display trend and counter trend moves which have relationships with various Fibonacci numbers.

The most significant Fibonacci related numbers are 61.8% and 38.2%.

Both of these numbers are related to Phi, the golden number.

61.8% = 1/Phi (1.618033988)38.2% = 1/Phi Squared

Use of Fibonacci Sequence

Moving Average periods are Fibonacci numbers

Eliott Wave Theory – Market Trends

Fibonacci Retracement : corrective waveshave been observed to retrace the previous wave by either 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%

Eliott Wave Theory – Applied to Ad Domain

Wave 1 : The Ad campaign starts its first upward phase. Only a relatively small number of people feel interested and engage with the Ad.

Wave 2 : Slight correction due to repetitive exposure to same consumer

Wave 3 : Increased as more awareness is generated and reach is widened

Wave 4 : Slight correction due to over exposure

Wave 5 : Maximum awareness generated by the campaign

ABC : Beyond this the Ad value and time relevancy decays and the Ad performance drops significantly and then stabilizes to a much lower value

The Golden Ratio in Trend Analysis

Many of the “waves” of movement in the market are related to one another either by the Golden Ratio or by some derivative thereof.

THE EXTENSION OF CONCEPT

How the concept can be applied to provide more value

8

Concept Extension

Detect variations or waves of sentiment.Detecting a trend is an important part of

predicting direction.

Is there a shape to changes in response and can it be detected?

Concept Extension

This concept can be applied to multi-channel digital campaigns

If a campaign has multiple touch points, the trend data can help in determining

how consumers behave in different digital touch points.

Cross medium campaign optimization

WHO ELSE IS DOING ?

What already exists ?

9

Who else ?

It’s a relatively new concept in Ad domain.

Already exists extensively in trading markets

Its difficult to achieve and validate

MediaMind

The dashboard displays real-time data for high-level monitoring of the campaign’s status and for quick problem solving. Tracks and report complex user interactions like Dwell Time

AdaptiveAdsAutomatically optimizes brand campaigns based on interactions, engagement, clicks or other key metrics.Tracks media engagement across audiences, providing intelligence for brand messaging.

SurveyAnalytics, Inc

The Trend Analysis module allows you to plot aggregated response data over time

TOOLS THAT EXIST ?

What already exists ?

10

References

http://www.jstor.org/pss/1939220http://www.topgunsoftware.com/resources.htmlThe Undergroundtrader.com Guide to Electronic

Trading by Jea Yuhttp://www.stator-afm.com/stock-trend-analysis.html

http://www.adaptiveads.com/product.phphttp://www.linnsoft.com/tour/threeLineBreakChart.htm

http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/develop/three-line-break

http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.2307/1939220

Thank You !