adaptwest data and tools for conservation planning in a ... · types of conservation assessment...
TRANSCRIPT
© M. Rapinski
AdaptWestData and tools for conservation planning
in a changing climate
Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research
Photo by Scott NielsenWaterton National Park, Alberta, Canada
© M. Rapinski
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© M. Rapinski
Types of conservation assessment
Prioritization
Vulnerability assessment
Management
strategies
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Watson and Venter 2017
Regional
Local
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Primary data: Downscaled climate projections
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IPCC 5th Assessment, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenariosTime periods: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s
Wang et al., 2016
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Derived spatial metrics of climate exposure
Climate Change Vulnerability =
Exposure x Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity
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Carroll et al., 2017
Dawson et al. 2011 Pacifici et al. 2015
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Climate velocity is the speed that an organism needs to travel to keep pace with climate
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Loarie et al. 2009
A species can track climate if climate velocity is less than its potential dispersal rate.
Field et al. (IPCC) 2014
Velocity = °C yr-1 / °C km-1
(temporal gradient / spatial gradient)
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Forward climatic velocity represents the rate that an organism at a given location must move to find a similar suitable climate in the future.
Backward climatic velocity represents the rate at which organisms adapted to the future climate of a given location will need to move to colonize it.
Forward vs. backward velocity
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Carroll et al. 2015
→ (macro)refugia locations (areas of species persistence)
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Species macrorefugia index based on backward velocity
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Model from Stralberg et al. 2015
Bay-breasted WarblerSetophaga castanaea
© B. Majoros, Cornell Lab of Ornithology
Stralberg et al. 2018
Macrorefugia concentrated in mountain and coastal regions
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Stralberg et al. 2018 (GEB)
324 tree species (McKenneyet al. 2011)
268 songbird species
(Distler et al. 2015)
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99 forest species
49 shrubspecies
64 woodlandspecies
29 grasslandspecies
… but vary by species and habitat
Stralberg et al. 2018 (GEB)
Refugia index can be applied to species or ecoregions
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RCP 8.5, 2050s
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Indices can be combined with systematic conservation planning tools to identify priorities
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Stralberg et al. in review
• Spatial optimisation tools can help inform the land-use planning process by identifying areas that are important to biodiversity
• Incorporating ecoregional refugia as a constraint can give insights into the trade-offs that exist when considering climate change in planning
Incorporating ecoregional refugia in biodiversity mapping
RCP 4.5,
2050s
Weighting of ecoregional refugia in
optimisation tool:
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DRAFT
This is a preliminary map showing proof of concept only.
Selection frequency
Slide courtesy of Danielle Pendlebury, AEP, GoA
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Main messages
• AdaptWest (adatpwest.databasin.org) provides data and tools for conservation planning in a changing climate
• Climate exposure metrics are an important component of conversation assessment to inform adaptation measures
• The concept of climate velocity is particularly useful for assessing vulnerability and identifying conservation priorities
• Refugia and corridor metrics can be used as inputs to systematic conservation planning exercises
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The AdaptWest Project team
• Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research • Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta• Scott Nielsen, University of Alberta• Andreas Hamann, University of Alberta• Dave Roberts, University of Alberta• Josh Lawler, University of Washington• Julia Michalak, University of Washington• Caitlin Littlefield, University of Washington
Other collaborators: Travis Belote (TWS), Sean Parks (USDA FS), Solomon Dobrowski (UM), Tongli Wang (UBC), Marc Parisien and Justin Beckers (NRCAN).
• Visit http://adaptwest.databasin.org
• Follow @adaptwest on Twitter for updates on newly available data and webinars
• Contact via email: [email protected]@klamathconservation.org
For more information:
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Climate-change refugia are areas of species persistence across space and time
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Morelli et al. in press (figure by T. Eaves)
Macrorefugia
Microrefugia
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Projected shifts in ecoregional climate space, RCP 8.5
Baseline 2050s 2080s
Climate change will have dramatic influence on species and ecosystems
Stralberg et al. 2019
…resulting in major challenges for biodiversity conservation and management
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The vulnerability – resilience spectrum
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Resilience Vulnerability
High refugia potential Low refugia potential
Persistence strategies Transformation strategies
Climatic connectivity - protecting areas needed for movement in response to climate change
The persistence of many species under climate change will depend
areas that facilitate dispersal to newly climatically suitable habitat.
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Several methods exist for identifying climate corridors
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Carroll et al. 2018
Current flow
Shortest (least-cost) path
Broad-scale topography and climate influence connectivity paths
Dispersal paths are often funneled by topography into north-south trending passes and valley systems, such as the pass on the right in northern Utah.
Climate connectivity paths also tend to avoid areas of novel and disappearing climates.
Human land uses may further constrain the ability of species to disperse through these areas.