adaptive strategies for maximizing profit while reducing the impact of climate-related risks

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Adaptive Strategies for Maximizing Profit While Reducing the Impact of

Climate-Related Risks

AAEA MeetingsSeattle, WA

August 13, 2012

Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

[email protected]


Useful to Usable (U2U) ProjectOverall Goal: To improve the usability of climate

information for the agricultural community and lead to more sustainable farming operations

3 Major Objectives: Research biophysical, climatic, and economic

risks on crop production and farm profitability Evaluate and assess information needs and

methods for agricultural producers Create decision support tools that address

agronomic, climatic, and economic issues for agricultural producers


U2U Team


Current Resources

https://drinet.hubzero.org/u2utools


Current Resources


1st Year Goals

Identify impacts of climate and management decisions on crop production and profitability

Utilize several crop simulation models to create a database on crop-climate interactionHistorical data: 1980-2010Broad coverage across the Corn BeltData links climate, soil conditions, and crop

productivity


Decisions Targeted

Crop rotation choice

Seed purchases and seeding rates

Fertilizer purchases and timing

Pesticide purchases and timing

Crop insurance selection

Fuel purchases for irrigation or drying

Cover crop usage

Tillage timing


Information Currently Used

%


Decisions That Could Be Affected

%


Crop Modeling

3 crop simulation modelsHybrid-MaizeDecision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer

(DSSAT) and CERES-Maize Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM)

Use models to examine:Yield variability and the influence of climate and soils on itEarly planting season moisture patterns and fieldwork

opportunitiesTiming of fertilizer applications and leaching potential


Target: Decision Support Tool

Example: Tool for fertilizer application

Producer inputs farm location and fertilizer type

Tool draws on data, based on producer inputs, to address:Climate projectionsExpected field daysYield projections and patternsMarket information and projections

Output presents possible production and profit results with uncertainty measures


Here’s the team!Purdue University: Linda Prokopy (Lead), Corinne Alexander, Larry Biehl, Otto Doering, Bruce Erickson, Ani Elias, Sajeeve E.M., Patrick Freeland, Ben Gramig, Olivia Kellner, Xing Liu, Amber Mase, Dev Niyogi, Paul Preckel, Carol Song, Melissa Widhalm, Lan Zhao

Iowa State University: Roger Elmore, Chad Hart, Jean McGuire, Lois Wright Morton, Gene Takle, Adam Wilke

Michigan State University: Gopal Alagarswamy, Jeff Andresen, Jim Hilker, Mike Holp

South Dakota State University: Dennis Todey

University of Illinois: Jim Angel, Beth Hall, Steve Hilberg, Atul Jain

University of Michigan: Yun-Jia Lo, Maria Lemos, Jennifer Perron

University of Minnesota: Tom Bartholomay, Whitney Meridith

University of Missouri: Pat Guinan, Ray Massey

University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Juliana Dai, Tonya Haigh, Cody Knutson, Tapan Pathak, Martha Shulski

University of Wisconsin: Tom Blewett, Rebecca Power, John Kriva

This project is supported by Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant no. 2011-68002-30220 from the USDA National Institute of Food and

Agriculture.


Thank you for your time.

adaptive strategies for maximizing profit while reducing the impact of climate-related risks

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