adaptive management in wildlife conservation john f. organ 1,2, daniel j. decker 3, shawn j. riley...
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ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IN WILDLIFE CONSERVATION
John F. Organ1,2, Daniel J. Decker3, Shawn J. Riley4, John E. McDonald, Jr. 1,2, and Shane P. Mahoney5
1U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service2University of Massachusetts, Amherst3Cornell University4Michigan State University5Newfoundland and Labrador Dept. of Environment and Conservation
Adaptive ManagementAdaptive Management
►Arose out of the wildlife profession’s search for Arose out of the wildlife profession’s search for better solutions to increasingly complex better solutions to increasingly complex conservation challengesconservation challenges
►Primary Principle:Primary Principle: Decision makers should learn from their Decision makers should learn from their
management interventions and apply that management interventions and apply that knowledge to development of more effective knowledge to development of more effective management interventions in the futuremanagement interventions in the future
““Learning by doing”Learning by doing”
UncertaintyUncertainty
►Driving force behind adaptive managementDriving force behind adaptive management Dynamic nature of animal populationsDynamic nature of animal populations Dynamic nature of ecosystemsDynamic nature of ecosystems Dynamic nature of human social systemsDynamic nature of human social systems Uncertainty over disease etiology (white-nose Uncertainty over disease etiology (white-nose
syndrome)syndrome)
Whenever uncertainty exists, there is no guarantee that a Whenever uncertainty exists, there is no guarantee that a “smart choice” will lead to a good outcome or “smart choice” will lead to a good outcome or consequence.consequence.
1. Epistemological: 1. Epistemological: arising as a result of a lack of arising as a result of a lack of
knowledge about facts.knowledge about facts.
2. Linguistic: 2. Linguistic: failure to communicate clearly; ambiguity in failure to communicate clearly; ambiguity in how uncertainty is expressed e.g., what does it mean that how uncertainty is expressed e.g., what does it mean that an event is “likely” to happen; or “something probably an event is “likely” to happen; or “something probably won’t happen.” Or, use of vague terms such as “healthy won’t happen.” Or, use of vague terms such as “healthy wildlife population.”wildlife population.”
From: Burgman, M. A. 2005. Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental From: Burgman, M. A. 2005. Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental management. Cambridge University, Cambridge, England, UK.management. Cambridge University, Cambridge, England, UK.
Types of UncertaintyTypes of Uncertainty
Environmental UncertaintiesEnvironmental Uncertainties
Environmental variation: uncertainty about Environmental variation: uncertainty about weather and climateweather and climate
influences biological processes and induces influences biological processes and induces stochasticity in habitat and population dynamicsstochasticity in habitat and population dynamics
Also introduces stochastic behavior in human Also introduces stochastic behavior in human dimensions (e.g., rain on an opening day of a hunting dimensions (e.g., rain on an opening day of a hunting season.season.
Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.26:177-199.
Structural uncertainty: Structural uncertainty: limited knowledge about limited knowledge about underlying sociological and biological mechanisms, and underlying sociological and biological mechanisms, and about relationships between management actions and about relationships between management actions and desired outcomes.desired outcomes.
Managers generally have imperfect information or Managers generally have imperfect information or understanding about the system under management.understanding about the system under management.
Structural UncertaintiesStructural Uncertainties
Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.
Partial observability: Partial observability: reflects imprecision in the reflects imprecision in the monitoring of a sociological and biological systems.monitoring of a sociological and biological systems.
Uncertainty arises from inability to “perfectly” Uncertainty arises from inability to “perfectly” assess pertinent variables for management. That is, assess pertinent variables for management. That is, we can only view a limited number of variables and we can only view a limited number of variables and even those are usually measure without either even those are usually measure without either accuracy or precision.accuracy or precision.
Limited Data UncertaintiesLimited Data Uncertainties
Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.
Partial controllabilityPartial controllability: : expresses recognition that expresses recognition that management decisions only partially control the actual management decisions only partially control the actual magnitude of the corresponding action [e.g. harvest magnitude of the corresponding action [e.g. harvest regulations control actual harvest rates (and harvest regulations control actual harvest rates (and harvest effects) only within certain limits of precision.effects) only within certain limits of precision.
Especially pertinent with “volunteer” participants – Especially pertinent with “volunteer” participants – recreationalists – in management system.recreationalists – in management system.
Just because an agency issues Just because an agency issues xx number of permits number of permits does not mean that does not mean that x x number of animals are number of animals are harvested. Human behavior is critical affected by harvested. Human behavior is critical affected by social and environmental context.social and environmental context.
Management UncertaintiesManagement Uncertainties
Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.Systematics 26:177-199
Adaptive Management ProcessAdaptive Management Process
►Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis►Objective SettingObjective Setting►Model Development and PredictionModel Development and Prediction► Identification and Selection of AlternativesIdentification and Selection of Alternatives►MonitoringMonitoring► ImplementationImplementation►Assess and AdjustAssess and Adjust► IterationIteration
Situation Situation AnalysisAnalysis
Fundamental Fundamental Objective(s)Objective(s)
Enabling Enabling ObjectivesObjectives
ObjectivesObjectives
Model Model DevelopmentDevelopment
Competing Competing ModelModel
Competing Competing ModelModel
Management Management AlternativesAlternativesImplementationImplementation
Assess & Assess & Adjust Adjust
MonitorMonitor
Stakeholder Stakeholder EngagementEngagement
IterateIterate
Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis
►Define and/or scope the problemDefine and/or scope the problem
►““Get your house in order”Get your house in order”
►Phase 1: Assess the management challenge and Phase 1: Assess the management challenge and social-ecological contextsocial-ecological context
►Phase 2: Engage stakeholdersPhase 2: Engage stakeholders
Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis
►Phase 1:Phase 1: Newfoundland caribou exampleNewfoundland caribou example
►Dramatic decline in caribou attributed to black Dramatic decline in caribou attributed to black bear, Canada lynx, and coyotebear, Canada lynx, and coyote
►Others suggest land uses are problemOthers suggest land uses are problem►Others think climate change is responsibleOthers think climate change is responsible
Phase 1Phase 1
►Phase 1:Phase 1: Newfoundland caribou exampleNewfoundland caribou example
►Biologists scoped all existing knowledgeBiologists scoped all existing knowledge►Initiated new studiesInitiated new studies►Developed conceptual model of systemDeveloped conceptual model of system►Identify potential stakeholders and needed Identify potential stakeholders and needed
expertiseexpertise
Stakeholder Stakeholder SatisfactionSatisfaction
Woodland Woodland Caribou Caribou PopulationPopulation
Calf Calf PredationPredation
Black Black BearBear
CoyoteCoyote
Canada Canada LynxLynx
MooseMooseHabitat Habitat ChangesChanges
Timber Timber ExtractionExtraction
Energy Energy ExtractionExtraction
Other Other UsesUses
OutfittersOutfitters
Resident Resident HuntersHunters
Tourist Tourist HuntersHunters
Cultural/HeritageCultural/Heritage
Climate Climate ChangeChange
Phase 2Phase 2
►Phase 2:Phase 2: Stakeholder engagementStakeholder engagement
►Stakeholder is any person who affects or is Stakeholder is any person who affects or is affected by the wildlife issueaffected by the wildlife issue Determining appropriate scale of stakeholder Determining appropriate scale of stakeholder
engagement importantengagement important Stakeholder engagement can affirm the management Stakeholder engagement can affirm the management
needneed Enlist local knowledgeEnlist local knowledge Foster trust and ownershipFoster trust and ownership
Objective SettingObjective Setting
►Objectives should be:Objectives should be: Clearly definedClearly defined AchievableAchievable Measurable within a specific time frameMeasurable within a specific time frame
Should represent Desired Future ConditionShould represent Desired Future Condition
Fundamental Objectives Fundamental Objectives
►Fundamental ObjectivesFundamental Objectives Cumulative outcomes of management that define the Cumulative outcomes of management that define the
desired future conditiondesired future condition Ideally, defined by stakeholdersIdeally, defined by stakeholders Should have at least one Enabling Objective linked to itShould have at least one Enabling Objective linked to it
►Enabling ObjectivesEnabling Objectives Focus on particular management intervention designed Focus on particular management intervention designed
to contribute towards achieving the Fundamental to contribute towards achieving the Fundamental ObjectiveObjective
ImpactsImpacts
►ImpactsImpacts
Significant beneficial and detrimental effects of Significant beneficial and detrimental effects of human-wildlife engagementhuman-wildlife engagement
These focus on the future conditions most desiredThese focus on the future conditions most desired
Model DevelopmentModel Development► A Model in the context of Adaptive Management is:A Model in the context of Adaptive Management is:
““a plausible representation of a dynamic natural resource system.”a plausible representation of a dynamic natural resource system.”
► Two levels of models can be used:Two levels of models can be used: Overall management system model (why management is needed)Overall management system model (why management is needed) Specific model focused on known and hypothesized relationships Specific model focused on known and hypothesized relationships
between alternative management actions and the enabling objectives between alternative management actions and the enabling objectives (how management will be achieved)(how management will be achieved)
► Having both levels of models provide:Having both levels of models provide:►Better structure to guide and communicate thinkingBetter structure to guide and communicate thinking►Increased decision-making capacityIncreased decision-making capacity►Increased rates of learningIncreased rates of learning
Identification and Selection of Identification and Selection of AlternativesAlternatives
►Different approaches to accomplishing Enabling Different approaches to accomplishing Enabling ObjectivesObjectives
►PredictionsPredictions If we conduct Alternative A, we expect Outcome XIf we conduct Alternative A, we expect Outcome X
►Involve StakeholdersInvolve Stakeholders Informs social acceptability of methodsInforms social acceptability of methods Can contribute creative ideas for a broader suite of Can contribute creative ideas for a broader suite of
optionsoptions
MonitoringMonitoring
►Critical to the Adaptive Management ProcessCritical to the Adaptive Management Process►Learn from Management and use that Learn from Management and use that
knowledge to improveknowledge to improve►Each intervention is treated as an experimentEach intervention is treated as an experiment
Results measuredResults measured Applied back to modelsApplied back to models Improve modelsImprove models Refine management interventionsRefine management interventions
ImplementationImplementation
►Decision-Making ProcessDecision-Making Process Incorporate scientifically-derived knowledge and Incorporate scientifically-derived knowledge and
experience-based insightsexperience-based insights Can be informal or highly rigorousCan be informal or highly rigorous Social acceptability a key criterionSocial acceptability a key criterion Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of the Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of the
wildlife resource must not be compromisedwildlife resource must not be compromised Wildlife managers must inform stakeholders as to Wildlife managers must inform stakeholders as to
acceptable limits of managementacceptable limits of management
ProblemProblem
ObjectivesObjectives
AlternativesAlternatives
ConsequencesConsequences
Tradeoffs & Tradeoffs & OrganizationOrganization
Decide & Decide & Take Take ActionAction
TriggerTrigger
Mandates:Mandates:Laws, Laws, PoliciesPolicies
Consider:Consider:Uncertainty Uncertainty & Linked & Linked DecisionsDecisions
Modeling Modeling ToolkitToolkitDataData
Values:Values:Preference Preference scales, scales, objective objective weights & weights & risk attitudes risk attitudes
SDM SDM Analysis Analysis ToolkitToolkit
Structured Decision MakingStructured Decision Making
Assess and AdjustAssess and Adjust
►Use Monitoring information to compare model Use Monitoring information to compare model predictions with actual responsespredictions with actual responses
►Fosters learning by assessing effectiveness of Fosters learning by assessing effectiveness of management approachmanagement approach
►Knowledge gained used to adjust system modelKnowledge gained used to adjust system model
IterationIteration
►Essentially a management cycle:Essentially a management cycle: Monitor resultsMonitor results Evaluate effectivenessEvaluate effectiveness Refine ModelsRefine Models Refine AlternativesRefine Alternatives Intervene/ImplementIntervene/Implement Monitor………Monitor………
Passive or Active Adaptive ManagementPassive or Active Adaptive Management
►Distinguished by degree to which they Distinguished by degree to which they emphasize the reduction of uncertaintyemphasize the reduction of uncertainty
►Difference in emphasis on learning in the Difference in emphasis on learning in the objectivesobjectives
►Both pursue the same rigorous processBoth pursue the same rigorous process
Active Adaptive ManagementActive Adaptive Management
►Pursues the reduction of uncertainty (learning) Pursues the reduction of uncertainty (learning) through managementthrough management
Objective is to learn; resource-related outcome is a Objective is to learn; resource-related outcome is a useful by-productuseful by-product
Passive Adaptive ManagementPassive Adaptive Management
►Pursues a resource-related objectivePursues a resource-related objective
Objective is to have a resource outcome; learning is a Objective is to have a resource outcome; learning is a useful by-productuseful by-product
SUMMARYSUMMARY
►Adaptive Management is an effective method to:Adaptive Management is an effective method to:
Deal with uncertaintyDeal with uncertainty
Learn from management actionsLearn from management actions
Be more effective in achieving desired results from Be more effective in achieving desired results from managementmanagement