adaption strategies to climate change: predictive response and restoration!? de climate change...
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Adaption Strategies to Climate Change:Predictive Response and Restoration!?
DE Climate Change WorkshopMay 6 2008
Robert Haddad, Ph.D., Simeon Hahn, Krissy Rusello, Anthony Dvarskas, Tom Brosnan
Office of Response & Restoration NOAA
The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
DARRP Mission:
To protect and restore NOAA’s coastal natural resources harmed by releases of hazardous materials or oil spills
Authority includes: CERCLA, OPA, CWA, NMSA
Accomplishments –in Delaware (with our partners)
Settlements have resulted in 7 protection and restoration projects in Delaware.
Restoration and/or protection of 530 acres of marine habitats in Delaware (completed and planned activities).
Cleanup actions promote recovery of coastal resources and communities at 16 hazardous waste sites.
NOAA’s Strategic Plan 1. Protect, Restore, and Manage the Use of Coastal and
Ocean Resources through an Ecosystem Approach to Management;
2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society's Ability to Plan and Respond;
3. Serve Society's Needs for Weather and Water Information; 4. Support the Nation's Commerce with Information for
Safe, Efficient, and Environmentally Sound Transportation; and
5. Provide Critical Support for NOAA’s Mission
“Adaptation to climate change is now inevitable… The only question is will it be by plan or by chaos?”
Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of IPCC
Change Effect
Increase in salinity and temperature
Changes in rainfall/runoff patterns
Increased tidal inundation and surges
Increased erosion Impacts to groundwater (salt
water intrusion, mobilization of contaminants)
Increasing frequency and intensity of storms and flooding
Conversion of wetlands to open water
Changes in erosion and accretion of beaches, other shorelines, coastal barriers
Increased eutrophication, turbidity, and hypoxia
Loss of less adaptable/sensitive species, changes in invasive species
Decrease in public access to shorelines
Infrastructure impacts: ports, rails, roads, sewage systems, industrial facilities
Socioeconomic and financial impacts
Climate ChangeClimate Change
e.g., US Climate Change Science Program
Useful Adaptation Links Databases of adaptation projects and strategies
World Resources Institute http://projects.wri.org/adaptation-database UNFCCC http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/ Natural Resources Canada
http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/index_e.php Policies and planning
Guidebook on climate change preparedness http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml
OCRM/Coastal Zone Management Act http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/czm/media/ClimateChangeHazards.pdf
EPA - http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/index.html, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/adaptation.html
But what about these?
Erosion and remobilization of contaminants Increased risk of spills – pipeline infrastructure,
shoreline infrastructure, well-heads, arctic shipping lanes
Changes in estuarine circulation and contaminant fate and transport
Changes in bioavailability of contaminants (e.g., metals)
Area Information
Statistics
Approx 3,000 vessel arrivals/year 2nd largest petro-chemical port in the
nation (largest for crude oil imports) Largest VLCC receiving port in nation 1 million barrels of crude oil imported daily Largest North American port for steel,
paper, and meat imports Largest cocoa bean and fruit import port on
east coast Port system generates $19 billion in annual
revenue
Home to: Five of the largest east coast refineries Six nuclear power plants Three states and two federal regions
SIRB Sites
RCRA sites
SIRB sites
Wilmington
Dover
Lewes
Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
SIRB: Site Investigation and Restoration Branch
Map source: Delaware Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Control
Selected Hazardous Waste Sites in
Delaware
Predictive Response & Restoration
Climate Change Assess/Evaluate potential “at risk” industrial
infrastructure and Hazardous Waste sites Work with partners to develop adaptive
response Develop appropriate adaptive strategies for
future restoration
Delaware River Watershed Delaware River Watershed Database & Mapping ProjectsDatabase & Mapping Projects
Combines the power of a comprehensive Combines the power of a comprehensive database with the visual strength’s of database with the visual strength’s of
Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Natural Resource losses/gains at:Natural Resource losses/gains at:
Hazardous Waste SitesHazardous Waste SitesBrownfield SitesBrownfield Sites
NJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesNJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesOil Spill SitesOil Spill Sites
Restoration SitesRestoration Sites
http://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.htmlhttp://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.html
Delaware River Watershed Delaware River Watershed Database & Mapping ProjectsDatabase & Mapping Projects
Combines the power of a comprehensive Combines the power of a comprehensive database with the visual strength’s of database with the visual strength’s of
Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Geospatial Analyses to provide insights into Natural Resource losses/gains at:Natural Resource losses/gains at:
Hazardous Waste SitesHazardous Waste SitesBrownfield SitesBrownfield Sites
NJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesNJ/Delaware River Initiative SitesOil Spill SitesOil Spill Sites
Restoration SitesRestoration Sites
http://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.htmlhttp://mapping2.orr.noaa.gov/website/portal/Delaware/index.html
While we can’t be sure of what would happen to chemical and oil infrastructure in DE, we know what happened in LA…
Nearly 400 reported releases of hazardous material, e.g., hundreds of stranded drums of unknown materials (http://www.incidentnews.gov).
16 major pollution incidents
Millions of gallons of oil spilled
Should we be concerned???
Secondary/Tertiary Impacts
As with current spills, cascading effects will need to be considered
Recreational impacts Ecological Impacts Commercial Impacts (Port/vessel traffic closures, fishing
bans, etc.)
Others - In the Athos spill, Salem nuclear power plant was shut down due to potential for submerged oil/water intake
Potential Approaches
Re-analyze Relative Sea level changes from the perspective of industrial infrastructures and future restoration
Couple potential ecosystem changes with increased risks of spills/contamination
Develop tools to better identify risks and improve predictions
Conduct risk and vulnerability assessments Work with industry to develop risk evaluation leading to
decision tree for potential and necessary actions
Challenges
Incorporate predictive impacts into regional and facility-specific contingency plans
Work with Stakeholders to incorporate vulnerability assessment into restoration plans
Promote habitat restoration that mitigates climate change
Identify and overcome institutional barriers!
For More Information…
www.darrp.noaa.gov www.response.restoration.noaa.gov
California Restoration and Adaptation Example South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project: goal
to convert 15,100 acres of commercial salt ponds
Project planning incorporated mid-range sea level rise estimate
Higher than anticipated sea level rises could impact progression Would require adaptive management of
project
Source: South Bay Salt pond Restoration project. http://www.southbayrestoration.org/climate/.
Canadian Strategy
Natural Resources Canada has Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program
Projects underway include: Evaluation of risk of erosion and flooding in
British Columbia Sea level rise impacts upon Prince Edward
Island Fate of salt marshes in Atlantic Canada
Source: Natural Resources Canada. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/index_e.php.
European Union
Vulnerable coastal zones in multiple Member States
EU reports address adaptation strategy
Source: European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 2006. http://www.eea.europa.eu.
European Union (cont’d) Green Paper underlines importance in taking action and
leading adaptation strategies Without early policy response adaptation measures risk being
chaotic Potential actions defined:
Relatively inexpensive “soft” actions (e.g., public planning) Costly defense/relocation measures (e.g., increasing dyke
height, relocating populations and critical infrastructure) Adaptation policies emerging in Member States
Netherlands Adaptation Strategy Natural coastal defenses such as sand dunes threatened
by increased wave action with sea level rise Identified potential strategies:
Reinforcement of dykes to withstand more frequent flooding
Widening/raising of sand dunes Construction of buildings on floating infrastructure Artificial reefs Allowing predesignated areas to flood — “Living
With Water”
Adaptation in Developing Countries
Work ongoing between international organizations and governments to assess vulnerability, develop strategies
Particularly challenging given limited infrastructure and funding
threats from development (e.g., wetland and mangrove loss)
Fiji: Coral Restoration
Reefs can reduce coastal erosion and sand loss Corals planted, mangroves restored, “fish houses”
constructed, removal of starfish infestation Choice of corals important Could be replicated elsewhere
Source: UNFCCC. http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/.
Bangladesh
• One strategy includes switching to more salt tolerant food production (e.g., shrimp farming instead of rice fields)
Thailand and Sri Lanka Thailand
Program implemented to restore and conserve mangrove forests
Includes community training in mangrove management
Sri Lanka Project focuses on East Coast Will rehabilitate:
Coastal lagoons (1,000 ha) Sand dunes (75 ha) of sand dunes Mangroves (250 ha)
Assessing Field Projects for Adaptation
IUCN, IISD, SEI-US, Intercooperation developed Community-based Risk Screening Tool—Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL) tool
Goal: assist project managers in aligning community projects with risk reduction/adaptation goals
One objective: how to adjust projects to adaptive capacity
Source: International Institute for Sustainable Development. http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2007/brochure_cristal.pdf.