adapting to climate variability in asia: already a reality for water managers?
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Cover slide option 1 Title
Adapting to climate variability in Asia: Already a reality for water managers?
Jeremy BirdInternational Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka
Photo: Hamish John Appleby / IWMI
Managing variability is already a fact of life e.g., the Mekong
Source: MRC
Flow regime at Chiang Saen, Lao-China border, 1993-2010
Climate change and the Asian food-agriculture system: the challenges
Climate change will:
• Negatively affect agriculture, water,
coastal livelihoods, health and
biodiversity
• Undermine water security of over
1 billion people globally by 2050s.
The poorest are most at risk
• Put the stability of food systems at
risk, especially in parts of Asia that
are vulnerable to hunger and
malnutritionPhoto: Neil Palmer/IWMI
E.g., Wheat in South Asia will be adversely affected by increasing heat stress
• 2025: USD 15-20 billion losses pa (12-16%)
• 2050: USD 32-48 billion losses pa (20-30%)
• 10% yield potential loss for every °C increase
Courtesy Dr. M. Banziger, CIMMYT
Some areas will be more affected than others:Identifying vulnerability hot spots for climate change to design locally
relevant adaptation measures
Climate change vulnerability index
Anuradhapura
Nuwara Eliya
RatnapuraSensitivity index
Exposure index
Adaptive capacity index
A continuum - not just big dams. Requires an integrated approach.
1. Water storage in all its forms
Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010
2. Improved groundwater management
Challenge: Over-exploitation of groundwater is already a reality
Climate change is likely to adversely affect natural recharge
Managed aquifer recharge strategy for 100 groundwater-stressed districts
CGWB’s Groundwater Recharge Master Plan aims to increase recharge by 36 Bm3 - refocused on western and southern India
Ganges Aquifer Management for Ecosystem Services (GAMES) – an IWMI/WLE initiative
Strategy
• Create subsurface storage by pumping additional
groundwater before the monsoon
• Fill the subsurface storage using surface water-
groundwater interactions during the monsoon
• Includes hydrological, social, economic, policy,
institutional and transboundary interventions
GAMES – Strategy, outputs, outcomes
Outcomes
• Buffer intra-annual variability of the flow
• Mitigate floods and droughts
• Sustainable intensification and improvements
in productivity in agriculture, domestic and
industrial sectors
• Augment dry-season river flows
• Enhance sub-surface storage based and
riverine ecosystems
The opportunity
• India has 130,000 GW of installed pumping capacity in the form of electric and diesel tube wells
• Shifting to a solar power source could reduce India’s Greenhouse Gas emissions by up to 6%
3. Solar pumps
Prashanth Vishwanathan/IWMI
Low operational costs pose a sustainability threat to groundwater by over-extraction of aquifer resources
The risk
Photo: Sajjad Ali Qureshi/IWMI
SOLAR FARMER
Grid Connected Farmers:
• Replace existing pumps with solar
• Offer guaranteed buy back of surplus solar power at an attractive price
Non grid connected farmers:• Form cooperative• Common feed in-point for “pooled power”• Guarantee buy-back• Reduce utility transaction costs
The solution: redesigning the solar mission as a “cash crop” opportunity
Wastewater from Bangalore replenishing Hoskote Lake. Local wells supplying clean water for the first time in two decades
Wastewater from Hyderabad replenishing the Musi River, supporting its ecosystem and the livelihoods of 50,000 dependent on irrigation
4. Improved waste management
Photo: Philipp Scharnowski
Photos: IWMIIn both examples, water purification still relies - to a significant degree - on natural treatment processes. Can be steered and supported to actively overcome freshwater shortages
Waste has a role to play in climate adaptation options for agriculture and water security: Refashion cities as smart peri-urban irrigation systems for water and nutrient recycling
Satellite data
Meteorological data
Biophysical data
Computer analysis and modelling
2. Model development
3. Map generationDrought Severity Index
4. Online Visualization
Platform
Regional- to basin-level applications and decision support
products
South AsiaBasinlevel
Country level
Water managers
IrrigationdistrictsFederal
& State agencies
Internationalagencies Scientific
community
Disaster relieforganizations
The role of big data: Assessing risks and hazards –Drought monitor
Assessing climate change risks and hazards: The role of big dataHistoric flood analysis at high resolution and frequency