ADAPTATION OF SYSTEM X COMPUTER-ASSISTEDPROJECT MANAGEMENT EXERCISES FOR USE AT

THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

Herbert Henry Joseph Nicholson

i ibrar¥MAVAL POSTGRADUATE

SCHOOIi

tfONTEHEY. CALIF- 93940

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1

Monterey, California

ADAPTATION OF SYSTEM X COMPUTER-ASSISTEDPROJECT MANAGEMENT EXERCISES FOR USE AT

THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

by

Herbert Henry Joseph Nicholson

Thesis Advisor: R. M. Hanna

June 1973

T

Approved ^on. public xdLzjaAz; diA&iihutlon. untlrnlte.d.

Adaptation of System X Computer-Assisted

Project Management Exercises For Use at

the Naval Postgraduate School

by

Herbert Henry Joseph NicholsonCommander, United States Navy

B.S., Naval Postgraduate School, 1972

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANAGEMENT

c.

' R ' RY

HOOD

ABSTRACT

System X is a series of project management oriented case studies

supported by an interactive time-sharing computer program simulating the

analysis and evaluation of a hypothetical surface-to-surface guided mis-

sile system acquisition program. The computer-assisted exercises

operate from baseline data supplied by a data base, along with system

parameters set by the user, in order to compute various deterministic

statistics regarding system performance and system costs. The system

parameter values may be readily changed and the computations repeated.

A desired result may be obtained by repeated iterations of the process.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION 6

II. OVERALL DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM X 8

III. DESCRIPTION AND COMPOSITION OF COMPUTERPROGRAMS 13

A. CONTROL PROGRAMS 13

1. SYSTEM Program 13

•. ,

' 2. INCENT Program — : —15

3. PROGPL Program 16

B. ANALYTICAL MODELS 17

1. Mission Simulation Model 17

2. Force Structure Effectiveness Model 17

3. Logistics Model 18

4. Life Cycle Cost Model 18

5. Availability Model 19

6. Capability Model 20

7. Reliability Model 21

8. Contractor Incentive Contract Model 22

9. Program Planning Model 24

C. DATA FILES 27

1. Baseline Data File 27

2. Input Reports Data Files 28

IV. SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION 30

3

V. USE OF EXERCISES IN CONJUNCTIONWITH CURRICULA 33

VI. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 38

APPENDIX A. EXERCISE INPUT BASELINE DATA FILES 40

APPENDIX B. EXERCISE INPUT REPORTS DATA FILES 41

APPENDIX C. COMMAND AND CONTROL PROGRAM (SYSTEM) 4 2

APPENDLX D. COMMAND AND CONTROL PROGRAM (INCENT) 64

APPENDIX E. COMMAND AND CONTROL PROGRAM (PROGPL) 76

APPENDIX F. ANALYTICAL MODELS REQUIRED BY COMMANDAND CONTROL PROGRAMS 98

APPENDIX G. TYPING CONVENTIONS AND SAMPLE EXERCISE- 99

LIST OF REFERENCES 109

INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 112

FORM DD 1473 113

LIST OF TABLES

I. System X Exercises 9

II. Table of Relevancy to Systems Acquisition

Management Curriculum 36

I. INTRODUCTION

System X is a management training device based on the life cycle

of a hypothetical surface-to-surface tactical missile system. A series

of exercises construct situations similar to those facing Department of

Defense weapon system project managers. The exercises are related to

management decision-making problems encountered in organization,

financial management, contract administration, technical performance,

requirements changes, and personnel management. The set of related

case studies is an approach to the problem of developing, within the

Department of Defense, qualified and competent managers in the field of

weapon system acquisition [Ref. 1] . Each case builds on the previous

case in order to provide a continuous evolution in the life cycle of the

missile system. The case method is designed to provide the student

user with a learning tool that he may use to derive an appreciation of the

effect of managerial decisions on the solution of problems in the weapons

system acquisition process. The use of a "real world" scenario in the

cases provides a management training technique applicable for use either

in conjunction with appropriate courses in a management curriculum or

as a laboratory exercise used as a supplement to an overall curriculum

in systems acquisition management.

Development of System X commenced in 1967 as a result of a con-

tract to Peat, Mar-wick Management Systems Company for the former

Defense Weapons System Management Center, Wright -Patterson Air

Force Base. The development of the system was completed in July 1972

for use in the five-month course in Systems Management conducted at

the Defense Systems Management School, Fort Belvoir, Virginia.

II. OVERALL DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM X

System X is a continuum of 30 exercises or case studies which en-

compass the life cycle of the CONQUEROR surface-to-surface missile

system. The missile system is comprised of an amphibious vehicle,

transporter, and the surface-to-surface tactical missile. The case

studies present situations during five phases of the life cycle: conceptual

activities, development, production, deployment, and retirement. Of

the 30 exercises, 15 make use of a computer operating in a real-time

interactive mode with the user, in order that he may manipulate the large

amounts of data contained in a data base maintained within computer

memory. The list of exercise titles and those which are computer-

assisted are shown in Table I. The remainder of this thesis will concern

itself only with the computer-assisted exercises.

The computer programs have been modified for use with an IBM

System/360 Model 67 Time Sharing System using the CP/CMS (Control

Program/Cambridge Monitor System) set of control and service programs,

interactive with an IBM 2741 Communication Terminal. The purpose of

CP/CMS is to create an environment in which many users can simultane-

ously carry out a wide range of data processing applications on a single

computing system. In addition, each user can initiate, monitor, and

terminate his particular application by carrying on a command/response

type dialog or conversation with the system. CP/CMS consists of two

8

SYSTEM X EXERCISES

EXERCISENUMBER

Conceptual Activities

1

2

3

4

. . 5

6

TITLE

*

9

10

11

12

* 13

14

Development

* 15

16

Mission Analysis

Measure of Effectiveness and Economy

Sensitivity Analysis

Contingency Analysis

Systems Requirement

Establishment of a Program Office

System Specification

Procurement Concept

Project Master Plan

Validation Phase

S/PO Management Information System

System Engineering

System Support Concepts

System Test & Support Demonstration

Structuring Incentives

Source Selection

17 Incentive Contract Negotiation

* computer assisted exercise

TABLE I

EXERCISENUMBER

18

19

* 20

* 21

* 22

Production

* ,-.., 23

24

* 25

26

* 27

* 28

Deployment

* 29

Retirement

30

TITLE

Development Decision

Contractor Management Information System

Technical Problem

Engineering Change Proposal

Production Decision

Training Requirements

Production Control Systems

Reprogramming

Second Source Decision

Field Support Decision

Operational Availability and Logistic Support

Modification Decision

Transitional Activities

* computer assisted exercise

TABLE I (cont.)

10

major components: a control program (CP-67) and a monitor (CMS).

The control program creates the time-sharing part of the environment,

which enables many users to simultaneously perform work. The monitor

creates the conversational part of the environment, which enables a user

to directly monitor his work by conversing with the system [Ref. 2].

All exercises require the use of a System X command and control

program, a number of data sets, and a number of analytical models.

The purpose of the command and control programs is to direct the pro-

cessing sequence of the analytical models, establishthe exercise data

bases, and to provide for interface commands between the user and the

analytical models.

There are three such command and control programs used, depending

on the exercise desired. They have been named SYSTEM, INCENT, and

PROGPL. The SYSTEM program is used for command and control of exer-

cises 3,4,5, 12, 13, 20, 23, 27, 28, and 29. The INCENT program is

used for command and control of the incentive contracting models used

in exercises 15 and 17. The PROGPL program is used for command and

control of the program planning models utilized with exercises 21, 22,

and 25. A more detailed description of the command and control programs

will be given in the next section.

The analytical models receive input from the data base which can be

altered at the computer terminal. When satisfactory alteration of the

data is completed, an EXECUTE command is issued allowing the analytical

models to be executed in the order prescribed by the exercise. Following

11

the execution of the analytical models, the program returns to the com-

mand level. The user can then select output reports. The output reports

are printed at the computer terminal by a report generator using the data

stored in the data base.

The programs used for the computer-assisted exercises make use

of two types of input data files: baseline data files and reports data

files. The baseline data files contain data which are read into the pro-

gram COMMON arrays for use by the analytical models. More than one

baseline data file may be used by an exercise. The input reports data-

files, containing reports formats information, cross references of

variables position, and editing information are combined into one random

access output report file by a control program subroutine. A more de-

tailed description of each of the above files will be given in the next

section.

12

III. DESCRIPTION AND COMPOSITION OF COMPUTER PROGRAMS

A. CONTROL PROGRAMS

These programs control the processing sequence and act as an inter-

face between the user and the computational models. The control pro-

grams are arranged into a main driver program and a number of subroutines

to perform specialized procedures. All subroutine calls and execution

are transparent to the user. _ • '.'"' -""'

1. SYSTEM Program

After loading the SYSTEM program into main memory and start of

execution, the user is prompted for the exercise number desired. The

exercise number is then validated. If valid, the position of the exercise

number in a list is used as an index to determine the number of baseline

input data files and the input reports data files to be read. A message

will be printed if the exercise number is not one of the valid numbers in

the list and the user will be prompted for another number. Subroutine

DATAX is executed to read baseline input data files required. The files

required for each exercise are contained in Appendices A and B.

The data is saved in COMMON arrays. The input data files

have a special format in order that various types of data may be combined

into a single file. Data types recognized are floating point decimal,

exponential, and alphanumeric data. Messages indicating successful

reading of the data files are output to the user's terminal.

13

The user is then prompted for a decision reply to indicate

whether or not a detailed list of variables is desired. A response of YES

will cause a list of parameters which the user may change to be printed.

Any other response sets a switch to suppress printing of the variables.

Subroutine MAKERM is then called to prepare the reports data

file for later use in the printing of exercise reports. The input to the

subroutine consists of three reports data file types: (1) Formats Data,

(2) Reports Cross-reference Data and (3) Editing Data. The input Reports

Data Files read are written on a random access file which has been ••.• : ,

created by the computer operating system. The output consists of the

Reports Data File which contains a copy of the data in each of the input

data files. The first record of the random access file contains three

values indicating to the control program the starting record of the three

types of data. A message indicating successful reading of the input

Reports Data Files and creation of the random access file is output to

the user's terminal.

A call to Subroutine COMMAN is then made. Inputs to this

subroutine are mainly in the form of commands. These commands enable

the user to control the actions of the computer programs. Certain com-

mands, such as DISPLAY and REPORT, cause the reading of input from

the Reports Data File and the output of information on the terminal. The

subroutine also performs initialization actions. Additional subroutines

called by Subroutine COMMAN provide for analysis of the user's command

and to provide for the necessary actions dictated by the user's command.

14

Examples of valid commands are REPORT, CHANGE, DISPLAY, and EXECUTE.

Detailed information concerning the commands is available in Ref. 3.

A command of EXECUTE causes return to the SYSTEM program

which then calls the necessary analytical models required for the particu-

lar exercise, in the prescribed order of execution. The program is ter-

minated by use of the command STOP. A listing of the SYSTEM program

is shown as Appendix C.

2. INCENT Program

,. < /;.• • - A control program similar to that used inthe SYSTEM program is

used with slight modifications as the Incentive Contract Negotiation

program. This program, INCENT, is used with exercises 15 and 17.

Files required for this program are shown in Appendices A and B. A list

of variable parameters for these exercises is printed automatically,

eliminating the requirement for a response from the user for such a listing.

Minimum, maximum, and present value of the variable parameter may be

determined by use of the DISPLAY command. Only the present value of

the parameter may be changed by the use of the CHANGE command. The

new value is required to be within the range indicated for that parameter.

Subroutine RUN calls the analytical model-subroutine ICM. A

non-standard return is provided to enable the program to bypass the

printing of a requested report if Subroutine ICM discovers an illegal set

of conditions in the user's parameter settings. Additional detailed in-

formation concerning the program is available in Ref. 3. A listing of the

INCENT program is shown as Appendix D.

15

3. PROGPL Program

The third command and control program, PROGPL, is similar in

operation to the previous two. This program is used with exercises 21,

22, and 25. The main program is similar to that found in the SYSTEM

program. A new subroutine, NETWRK, is included to provide initializa-

tion for the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) network.

Two different networks are provided and are initialized from the baseline

data base. The Engineering Change Proposal model, which forms the

analytical model' for exercise 21 , is executed by a call to Subroutine

PROCOS. Display or change of the current network may be accomplished

by the command DISPLAY NET or CHANGE NET respectively. The use of

the RESET command resets the network to its original value. Subroutine

DATE provides for conversion of dates from calendar form to serial dates

and vice versa. Provision is made for leap years. There is provision

for a total of 200 activities in the PERT network. The report available

is a specialized report known as an "Activity Schedule Report." Several

format options are provided which are a representation of the PERT net-

work or a part of the network. The user may request all activites be

printed, only the critical path activities, or specify particular activities

to be printed

.

For exercises 22 and 25, execution is accomplished by a call

to the Production Planning model, COSMOD. This model is similar in

nature to those analytical models found with the SYSTEM program.

16

Additional detailed information concerning the program is available in

Ref. 3. A listing of the PROGPL program is shown as Appendix E.

B. ANALYTICAL MODELS

There are ten different analytical models currently associated with

the System X exercises. A brief description of the models and the com-

mand and control program for which it is available will be given below.

A list of analytical. models, required for each command and control pro-

gram is shown in Appendix F. ••' -:

1 . Mission Simulation Model

The primary functions of the Mission Simulation model (MISSIM)

are to evaluate the effectiveness of the vehicle, transporter, and missile

(VTM) against each type of target and to evaluate the expected VTM

storage/launch unit and missile requirements for each type of target that

is engaged. One VTM unit consists of 6 launchers, 40 missiles, 40

warheads, and associated support equipment. The effectiveness and re-

quirements are calculated on a per target basis. Overall levels of VTM

requirements and effectiveness are subsequently calculated by the Force

Structure Effectiveness model. A detailed description of the model is

contained in Refs. 4 and 5.

2 . Force Structure Effectiveness Model

The primary purpose of the Force Structure Effectiveness model

is to extend the results of the Mission Simulation model in order to deter-

mine force level requirements for VTM units. This information is

17

subsequently used in the Life Cycle Cost model to produce system life

cycle costs. The detailed description of the model is contained in Refs.

6 and 7

.

3. Logistics Model

The Logistics model (LOG) computes a series of logistics re-

quirements which are used to determine support costs using the Life

Cycle Cost model. The model receives most of its input from the base-

line data base, and from the output of the Force Structure Effectiveness

model. In the model sequence, the position of the Logistics model is

fixed, executing after the Force Structure Effectiveness model and before

the Life Cycle Cost model. The model is divided into a series of modules,

each of which computes a separate logistics support requirement for the

missile system. Some of the model input is general to the extent that

it is used in more than one module. Other input is module dependent,

being peculiar to only one module. Additional information concerning the

model is contained in Refs. 8 and 9.

4. Life Cycle Cost Model

The purpose of the Life Cycle Cost model (LIFE) is to calculate

and display the time-phased cost elements of research and development,

procurement, and operation and maintenance for the system life cycle.

The model uses parametric cost estimating relationships, learning curves,

and other cost factors which are sensitive to parameters contained in the

System X case studies. The model utilizes escalating factors which cause

the cost elements to increase at specific points in the life of the project.

18

The Life Cycle Cost model is never executed by itself in the

exercises. Rather, it depends upon the output of the other models either

directly or indirectly. Depending upon the exercise, the specific models

to be executed are called by the control program. In the calling sequence,

however, the Life Cycle Cost model is always executed last, either after

the Logistics Model or the Force Structure Effectiveness model.

The model is both resource-oriented (facilities and manpower)

and functionally oriented (training and support' equipment) . The three

classes of cost are broken down further into subcategories taking into

consideration the orientations mentioned above. The model calculates,

for the three major cost categories, discounted life-cycle costs as well

as the undiscounted cost. The detailed description of the model is con-

tained in Ref s . 10 and 11.

5. Availability Model

The Availability model (AVAIL) computes operational availability

for the missile system and its sub-systems where operational availability

is defined as the probability that the system (or sub-system) will be

capable of operating at or above its required level of performance if called

upon to do so at a random point in time [Ref. 12]. Availability, as it is

addressed in this model, is degraded by operational time lost due to

preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, and overhauls.

The model receives all its input from the baseline data set and

does not depend on the output of any other model. In the model sequence,

the Availability model is run before the Mission Simulation model. Its

19

order in the sequence with regard to the Capability and Reliability models

is unimportant. The availabilities computed by the model are used as

input by the Force Structure Effectiveness model and the Life Cycle Cost

model. A more complete description of the model and its parameters is

contained in Refs. 12 and 13.

6. Capability Model

The purpose of the Capability model (CAPAB) is to provide realis-

tic performance measurements (capabilities) of the missile and its trans-

porter. The Capability model is subdivided into four major submodels

which interact with each other.

The Missile Performance submodel is the largest and most com-

plicated of the individual submodels. This submodel simulates the flight

of the missile from launch to target, gathering performance statistics

during the missile's flight. The missile's thrust profile is divided into

three basic segments: boost phase, sustain phase, and glide phase.

The missile is directed toward the target through an inertial

guidance system which may be assisted by laser-beam illumination of the

target. During the flight of the missile, the Guidance System submodel

detects deviations from the optimal trajectory and attempts to make the

corresponding flight corrections. The inertial guidance system can be

designed to provide a certain level of predefined targeting accuracy.

The transporter of the Conqueror missile is an integral part of

the overall missile delivery system. The Transporter Speed and Distance

submodel defines the vehicle cruise speed, swim speed, and cruise distance

20

The Reaction Time submodel provides for a summation of the

individual sub-system reaction times in terms of both initial firing and

retargeting, and repeat firings. A more complete description of the

parameters involved in the submodels and the equations required for

calculation of the output values is contained in Refs. 14 and 15.

7. Reliability Model

The Reliability model (RELIB) computes reliability for the Con-

queror missile. The missile target engagement sequence can be divided

into three steps: pre-ignition, ignition, and in-flight. Reliabilities

associated with the last two steps, ignition and in-flight, are addressed

in this model. Pre-ignition reliability is computed as missile availability

in the Availability model. The Reliability model computes: (i) missile in-

flight reliability at various specified ranges, up to and including maximum

range, (2) guidance subsystem in-flight reliability at maximum range,

(3) propulsion subsystem in-flight reliability at maximum range, and

(4) missile propulsion subsystem ignition reliability.

The Reliability model is exercised, in sequence, after the

Capability model, from which time of flight data are obtained. The com-

puted output of the Reliability model can be used directly, for example,

to examine the sensitivity of life cycle cost to changes in missile sub-

system mean time between in-flight failures. The output is also used

as input to the Mission Simulation model, where missile reliability im-

pacts upon the effectiveness of the missile when engaging targets. A

further description of the model is contained in Refs. 16 and 17.

21

8. Contractor Incentive Contract Model

The purpose of the Contractor Incentive Contract model (ICM)

is to perform a contractor oriented analysis of a proposed incentive

contract. This analysis is done with contractor information not normally

available to the government including: contractor profit strategy, con-

tractor estimated cost to produce, and cost-performance curves on each

performance parameter which is incentivized in the contract.

Utilizing this contractor supplied information, the basic incen-

;.'...-tiye. contract, as defined. by specific parameter values supplied by the ,

student user or instructor/monitor, is pursued according to one of five

contractor oriented profit strategies: (1) the maximization of incentive

fee in dollars, (2) the maximization of incentive fee as a percent of

sales, (3) the maximization of performance for a given incentive fee,

(4) the maximization of performance for a given fee percentage of sales

(where sales is the sum of development cost and the total incentive fee) ,

and (5) the maximization of performance for a given cost overrun. Evalu-

ative information is supplied to the user in the form of output reports.

These include costs, performance achieved, fees or profits, and the

relative value of additional incentive fee on that parameter. Ten individual

parameters are available as potential parameters for incentivation. The

user may define which, if any, of the parameters for which he may desire

to establish incentive values. The relationship between fee and perform-

ance is established by specifying the incentive fee value at minimum,

22

maximum, and target performance values. A linear relationship is used

for the share-lines connecting target performance with the maximum and

minimum values of performance.

For each of the incentivized parameters, the contractor is as-

sumed to have knowledge of the performance value he may obtain by

investing additional development dollars in the parameter. This is re-

ferred to as the contractor's cost-performance curve. The contractor

must meet the specification value in the contract for all parameters.

This specification' value is' referred to as the minimum performance point.-

The contractor's cost to obtain the minimum performance point is included

in the lump sum known as the "cost to develop a minimum performance

system." The cost-performance curve for the individually incentivized

parameters is not defined at performance points less than the minimum

performance value. From the minimum performance value, additional

development dollars spent on each incentivized parameter will result in

increased performance levels up to a maximum achievable performance

level. At this maximum level, the contractor believes that additional

development dollars will not produce any significant increase in per-

formance. Hence, the cost-performance curve is asymptotic to the

maximum performance level line. The determination of how the contractor

will trade-off receivable- fees is referred to as his profit strategy.

The initial baseline values for the incentive fees have all been

set to zero, in effect, indicating that no parameters have been incentivized.

The minimum acceptable performance has been established for each

23

parameter. Unless the parameter is incentivized, the contractor will

produce the minimum performance value for that parameter. Minimum

performance points are fixed and may not be varied during the exercise.

Target performance points may be set at values within the defined ranges.

Additional information concerning contract structure, contractor's structure,

parameters, and graphs of the multiple incentive contract share-lines

are contained in Refs. 18 and 19.

9 . Program Planning Model

.-^•':";''Vv:;The' ; Program Planning model is divided into two independent V-.

submodels. One submodel, the Schedule submodel, is PERT oriented

and performs network calculations to produce time scheduling information.

The user may utilize the scheduling submodel to evaluate alternative

production networks encountered in the project management of the

Conqueror missile system program. The Cost submodel is oriented to

the production planning process and consolidates the planning costs

associated with the various management decisions and provides cost

reports to the user. This submodel allows the user to aggregate the many

varied cost inputs from the production process to produce information-

oriented reports for use in managing the production program.

The Schedule submodel (PROCOS) takes, as input, activities

in a PERT-oriented network and computes, as output, the early start

date, late start date, early finish date, late finish date, and the slack

for each of the activities in the network. The user is not allowed to

alter the activity arrangement or sequence in the network. He may,

24

however, alter activity durations. The basis of the network calculations

is a topological sort. The critical path for the network selected is

indicated by those activities which have the smallest (or largest negative)

slack. Those activities on the critical path are indicated on the output

reports with an asterisk.

Subroutine DATE is required to convert dates from standard

notation into a serial date required for mathematical manipulation. This

conversion is reversible for use in the output reports. The serial date is

relative to a given zero-date which has been selected as 1 January' 1950.

Three reports are available in exercise 21. The use of the com-

mand REPORT ALL will list all activities in the current network. The

command REPORT CRITICAL will list all activities on the critical path in

chronological order. The command REPORT n, where n represents one or

more activities, allows the printing of only the selected activites.

For exercises 22 and 25, the Program Planning model uses the

second independent submodel, COSMOD. In the process of production

planning, the manager is faced with a variety of problems which focus

upon three major types of decisions. These are: (1) production go-ahead

date, (2) the delivery date of the first production unit, and (3) the pro-

curement quantity of the units over the time frame of the production phase.

An error checking routine is used to check to make sure no production

orders are requested in years prior to one year after the Go-ahead Decision

was given and that the production capacity is not exceeded by the pro-

duction order quantity. If an error of this nature is found, an error message

25

is printed at the terminal indicating the current production go-ahead date

and which production orders violate the production capacity constraint

for each year. In order to assist in making the above decisions, the

submodel accumulates costs, for later use in various output reports, in

the three major categories of Research, Development, Test and Evaluation

(RDT&E) , Production, and Operation and Maintenance.

The unit costs exhibit an inflationary trend over the years.

There is, however, a "learning curve" associated with the production

hi 'the items which will allow fewer people and facilities to produce the

same quantity of output. In later production years, the interaction of the

learning curve and inflation allow optimal production of lot sizes smaller

than the lot sizes in the initial production years.

Both exercise 22, the Production Decision exercise, and exer-

cise 25, the Reprogramming exercise, use the Cost submodel as the

analytical model. However, in the System X time frame, the baseline

cost values used with exercise 25 have significantly changed. At this

point in the life cycle, most RDT&E and certain production funds have

been expended. The majority of the production engineering cost and

Long Lead Time Item costs have been obligated. These items will no

longer be affected by any production decisions. Procurement costs have

been increased by six percent.

There are 86 parameters available to the user. Parameter 1

refers to the Production Start-up Date. Parameter 2 is the number of

months between the Production Start-up Date and the first unit delivery.

26

The remainder of the parameters, 3 through 86, refer to the unit quantity

of the six possible hardware end items to be produced in a given year.

Additional detailed material concerning the Program Planning models,

including tables of topological sequence numbers for the PERT networks,

category cost matrices, and baseline parameter values are contained in

Refs. 20 and 21.

C..

DATA FILES .-•,.'••

The input data files contain the baseline data values used as input

through the COMMON arrays by the analytical models and the input re-

ports data files which form the basis for the random access reports data

file used in the printing of the various output reports.

1 . Baseline Data File

One or more baseline data files are read into the computer pro-

gram COMMON arrays before any analytical models are executed. The

files contain initialization data values in several different formats:

floating point decimal, alphanumeric, and exponential formats. After

initialization of the master array, V, the values from the baseline data set

are read into specific locations in the V array. Only a portion of the

locations in the V array have baseline data values assigned. The remain-

der are reserved for values entered by the user or those values computed

during execution of the analytical models. The baseline data values are

therefore inviolate and allow resetting of all values to the original base-

line values by use of the command RESET.

27

2 . Input Reports Data Files

These files contain three types of data files: (1) Reports Formats

Data Files, (2) Reports Cross-reference Data Files (also known as

Variables Data Files), and (3) Editing Data Files. The formats used for

printing the reports of an exercise are contained in the Reports Formats

Data File. The format for each report are placed in the file in the

sequence in which they will be used to print the report. A record placed

after the final format for each report containing the characters END

.•signify- the end of. the-' report formats. . .-. ' ;.'»*.•»«;»• •;*?; •'^.-/••.v.^-- - : - J-^.;:-^:

-: .-.,

The Reports Cross-reference Data File is used in conjunction

with the Reports Formats File. The file contains data which indicate to

the control program which master array location values are to be printed

in each report and the appropriate formats record in the Reports Format

File to be used.

The Editing Data File is used to supply information for the

parameters which may be changed by the user. One record is used for

each changeable parameter. Each record contains four data elements:

parameter description, minimum permitted value of the parameter, maxi-

mum permitted value of the parameter, and the position of the parameter

value in the master array. This data file is referenced by the command

and control program each time the user attempts to change the value of

one of the parameters. The new value is compared with the permitted

maximum and minimum values and rejected if it is outside the permitted

28

range. The last record of each edits data file contains the characters

END. Complete documentation concerning the data base is contained in

Refs. 22 through 28.

IV. SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION

The requirement for conversion of the computer program was due to

the incompatibility of various commands in the original version, used in

conjunction with a General Electric Model GE-635 computer, with the

commands required by the IBM System/360 computer. The differences in

•FORTRAN language options allowed by the compilers used with the

General Electric and IBM systems also required changes in order to

make the programs compatible for use on the Naval Postgraduate School's

IBM System/360 computer. A discussion of the overall types of changes

along with specific examples of changes required is made below.

In the original version, the programs for a typical exercise were

arranged in the form of a series of overlays, which are logically independent

sections of the entire program. Each section could then be brought into

computer memory as required. In the IBM System/360, as installed at

the Naval Postgraduate School, each program using the system is treated

as a sequence of 4096-byte units called "pages." By dividing programs

into pages, processor storage can be allocated in page (4096-byte) in-

crements. This eliminates the requirement for the program to be divided

into logically independent sections. The programs were converted into

main programs and associated subroutines called either by a main program

or by another of the subroutines used by the main program.

30

In the original version, the General Electric GE-635 FORTRAN

language compiler allowed each overlay to either return to the main pro-

gram or for control to be passed to another overlay by the use of a CHAIN

statement. All CHAIN statements have been converted to a RETURN

statement, causing a return of control to the calling main program or

subroutine. In the Naval Postgraduate School IBM System/3 60 FORTRAN

compiler, initialization of variables is not automatically performed. It

.•• is, therefore, imperative that all variables be initialized in some manner

• prior to their use. The dimension of arrays whose values are passed as

an argument in a subroutine call statement must be equivalent in both

the calling program and the subroutine.

One major problem with the original version was the amount of disk

storage space required to store the 43 data files required to provide the

data base. The Baseline Data Files comprised the largest volume of

records required to be stored. Originally, the Baseline Data Files were

comprised of 5102 80-character records. By a conversion of the Baseline

Data Files into a format which allows a number of data values to be used

in each 80-character record, a reduction of over 82 percent, to 909 80-

character records, in total record length was achieved.

The computer Operating System Library contains a number of sub-

routines which are available for use under CMS. The DEFINE subroutine

defines FORTRAN disk files that may be accessed randomly and makes a

correspondence between a CMS file and a FORTRAN logical unit number.

Before each READ or WRITE (or PRINT) statement, the record number must

31

be set to the record desired. After the execution of the READ or WRITE

statement, the record number is automatically incremeted to point to the

next record in the file [Ref. 2]. This Operating System Library subroutine

is used to form the random access file, FT09F001 , used as the output

reports data file. Upon the user command STOP, a call is made to two

other Operating System Library subroutines; the ERASE subroutine which

removes the random access file, FT09F001, from the user's directory and

to the EXIT subroutine which causes termination of the program.

Prior to conducting a computer-assisted exercise the user should

familiarize himself with the material contained in the appropriate Student

Exercise Booklet, Computer Operations Guide, and Computer User's

Guide for the particular exercise to be conducted. Instructors/Monitors

will find additional material concerning the case contained in the In-

structor's Guide Booklet for the particular exercise. Appendix G presents

typing conventions and sample exercise commands, reports and messages

32

V. USE OF EXERCISES IN CONJUNCTION WITH CURRICULA

The case study method and management game simulation are used

extensively at the Naval Postgraduate School as well as other colleges

and universities. The System X project management exercises encompass

both the case study and the simulation methods. The exercises consider

the project manager from the viewpoint of the management scientist who

utilizes mathematics, models, and computers to aid him in making optimum

decisions. The exercises allow a management student who has studied

the principles involved in project management to apply those principles

to the decision-making involved in a hypothetical project. The case

study method utilized is augmented through the use of the computer which

serves as an aid to the user in order to manage the data base. The com-

puter develops reports, makes computations, and makes data comparisons.

Instructional methods and materials must include not only the cases

themselves and the use of the computer but also must include lectures,

seminars, discussions, and workshops.

There are a number of alternatives for use of the set of exercises

comprising the life-cycle of the project. The first of these alternatives

is to use the System X exercises to formulate a Directed Study course

conducted over a one academic quarter time frame. This course could be

conducted on either a Pass/Fail basis or as a graded course. The use of

the exercises as an unstructured learning experience would lend itself

33

to the use of the Pass/Fail system of grading, whereas conducting the

course on a graded basis would require a subjective grade to be deter-

mined by the instructor team. Within the framework of a Directed Study,

the exercises may be handled in a number of ways. The simplest of

these is to use the exercises as an acquisition overview with the mis-

sile system scenario as a "typical" weapon system acquisition. In this

case, the computer would receive only limited use in exploring the al-

ternative decisions available in each case. In its most elementary form,

this would require only the use of the baseline data values and a limited

number of iterations, changing only a limited number of parameter values

in order to arrive at the general changing trend of the output values

rather than continuing the process to determine a near optimum solution.

This may be expanded as required to illustrate the principles and problems

involved at each stage of the acquisition process.

A second alternative is to utilize specific exercises or groups of

exercises in conjunction with appropriate courses throughout the curricu-

lum. This could be accomplished during the actual period of a particular

course to illustrate or provide examples of situations related to the

material for which instruction is being provided. Alternatively, selected

exercises could be conducted at the beginning of an academic quarter in

lieu of course instruction normally conducted at that time. This alter-

native has the disadvantage of tending to compress the material scheduled

to be taught in that quarter into a shorter time frame. If exercises are

to be conducted in addition to regularly scheduled material, consideration

34

to assignment of laboratory-type credit for the time expended should be

made. Table II depicts the relevancy of the various System X exercises

for applicability to courses within the Systems Acquisition Management

curriculum, as contained in the Naval Postgraduate School catalog for

1972-1974.

Thirdly, the set of exercises could be used as the basis for a group

thesis project simulating the project management roles required in the

operation of a project office managing the acquisition of a major weapon

system. A disadvantage to this replacement of the individual thesis is

that it eliminates the student's option on selection of a thesis topic.

In addition, considerable modification of the scenario and cases would

be required to fit the Navy environment in a manner justifying the

experience as a thesis project.

It is possible to use some of the System X case exercises in other

than a quantitative way. A number of the case exercises, particularly

those which are not computer-assisted, may lend themselves as cases

in behavioral or management theory studies. The selection of these type

cases from the entire package may be found useful in studies involving

organizational behavior and human factors. This relationship is shown

in Table II. A synopsis of prior case material to the one selected may

be required in order for the student to have sufficient background on

which to evaluate the selected case. A discussion of the impact of

recent political, economic, technological, and social factors on the case

may be worthwhile within the selected courses of instruction.

35

TABLE OF RELEVANCY TO SYSTEMSACQUISITION MANAGEMENT CURRICULUM

NPS COURSENUMBER* RELEVANT EXERCISE NUMBERS

MN 4145 1,2,3,4,5

SM 3301 9, 18

SM 3302 6, 8, 9, 10, 18, 25, 30

SM 3304 ••.

.!8,. 25

SM 3305 11, 19, 21, 24

SM 4301 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 20, 21, 22, 29

SM 4302 9, 10

SM 4303 8, 15, 17

SM 4304 16, 2 6

SM 4305 13, 23, 25, 27, 28

* Naval Postgraduate School Catalog for 1972-1974.

TABLE II

36

There are possibilities for use of the System X case studies outside

of the Systems Acquisition Management curriculum. An examination of

the relevancy of the exercises to other curricula should be the subject

of further investigation.

37

VI. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the alternatives contained in the previous section, it is

considered that the project management exercises which comprise System

X are suitable for use within a management curriculum by students at the

Naval Postgraduate School. Within the Systems Acquisition Management

curriculum the following recommendations are made for use of the System

X exercises.

The System X exercises should be used within "the Systems Acquisi-

tion Management curriculum to formulate a Directed Study course to be

graded on a Pass/Fail basis. The course should be conducted over at

least a one academic quarter time frame in the latter third of the curricu-

lum. The exercises to be conducted should include as a minimum those

which concern themselves with the Conceptual, Development, and Pro-

duction phases of the system life cycle as shown in Table I. The course

must be supported by a team of instructors/monitors knowledgeable and

experienced in project management to allow a wide spectrum of back-

ground, expertise, and opinion to be available to the student.

In the event that the above course of action is impracticable, it is

alternatively recommended that selected exercises be used in conjunction

with existing courses in the curriculum. Individual cases may be found

useful in conjunction with courses in Project Management, Systems

Analysis, Project Information Systems, Systems Engineering Management,

38

Procurement Planning and Negotiation, and Logistic Support. The

relevancy of individual exercises to courses within the Systems Acquisi-

tion Management curriculum is contained in Table II.

39

APPENDIX A. EXERCISE INPUT BASELINE DATA FILES

EXERCISENUMBER FILETYPE IDENTIFIER

3 FT03F001 FT03F002

4 FT03F001 FT03F002

5 FT03F001 FT03F002

12 FT03F001 FT03F002

13 FT03F001 FT03F002 FT03F003.»

>'vi5.'-'; ••'".-•.' '': ';';•.•.• ::/. . . F.T1DF001

17 FT10F001

20 FT03F001 FT03F002

21 FT10F002

22 FT10F003

23 FT03F001 FT03F002 FT03F003

25 FT10F004

27 FT03F001 FT03F002

28 FT03F001 FT03F002

29 FT03F001 FT03F002

40

APPENDIX B. EXERCISE INPUT REPORTS DATA FILES

EXERCISENUMBER FILETYPE IDENTIFIER

3 FT02F001 FT02F002 FT02F003

4 FT02F001 FT02F002 FT02F003

5 FT02F001 FT02F002 FT02F003

12 FT02F004 FT02F005 FT02F006

13 FT02F007. FT02F008 FT02F009

:

•

is-:-'" FT01F001 FT01F002 FT01F003

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23 FT02F013 FT02F014 FT02F015

25 FT04F007 FT04F008 FT04FC09

27 FT02F016 FT02F017 FT02F018

28 FT02F019 FT02F020 FT02F021

29 FT02F022 FT02F023 FT02F024

41

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APPENDIX F. ANALYTICAL MODELS REQUIRED BYCOMMAND AND CONTROL PROGRAMS

CONTROL PROGRAM ANALYTICAL MODEL TITLE SUBROUTINE NAME

SYSTEM Mission Simulation

Force Structure

Effectiveness

Life Cycle Cost

. .• Logistics

^.^•vAvailability -. - .:•;

"•" Capability

Reliability

MISSIM

FORCE

LIFE

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: AVAIL .

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RELIB

INCENT Incentive Contract ICM

PROGPL Engineering ChangeProposal

Program Planning

PROCOS

COSMOD

98

APPENDIX G. TYPING CONVENTIONS AND SAMPLE EXERCISE .

Typing Conventions

The following typing conventions apply to the use of all computer-

assisted exercises. Input is accepted from the user's terminal only at

certain points of the computer exercise. Every user input line must be

terminated by pressing the RETURN key. No data transmission of the

line typed will take place until the RETURN signal has been received by

.the computer. If errors are noticed in the line,being. typed before the

RETURN key is pressed, the errors can be corrected by the user. The @

character is interpreted to mean "delete the last character typed"; @@

will delete the last two characters, and so on. Spaces are counted as

characters. The BACKSPACE key should not be used. The use