Adaptation measuresin Romanian agriculture

Pilot Study

THEMATIC CENTRE l Forestry and Agriculture

Under the OrientGateproject’s Thematic Centre on Forestry andAgriculture, two pilotstudies were carried out:Pilot Study 1 focused onclimate change adaptationin the forests of theAustrian Alps; Pilot Study2 investigated agriculturaladaptation in Romania.

Working together

Pilot Study 2 focused on the cityof Caracal in Olt County,southern Romania; and thecentrally located CovasnaCounty. Work was carried outby the National MeteorologicalAdministration and theEnvironmental ProtectionAgency of Covasna.

Municipalities providedtechnical support to develop adrought risk management tooland adaptation measures.Local farmers also contributedby testing techniques andimplementing results. TheAgricultural ResearchDevelopment Station of Caracalwill use the findings to developits own research into varietiesand hybrids with highadaptability to local climateand soil conditions. Thematicseminars and scientificmeetings brought togetherOrientGate partners and local,regional and national authoritiesin the agriculture, water,environment, emergencyresponse, education and publicadministration sectors; urbanplanners; academics; and civilsociety representatives.

Establishing goals

The aim was to identify adaptation measures via collaboration betweenresearchers and farmers. Winter wheat and maize were selected, andCrop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES) models were used alongwith climatic predictions obtained by the EU ENSEMBLES project and theCMIP5 experiments carried out by the World Climate ResearchProgramme. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer(DSSAT) model was applied in order to evaluate the potential impact ofweather patterns on crop productivity. Technological sequences wereanalysed by simulations of crop management practices: changes insowing date, altered genetic coefficients for genotype selection, andcrop irrigation needs during the vegetation season.

Managing resultsData on soil moisture, water demand, rainfall and air temperature wererecorded on regional geographic information system (GIS) maps. Landcover/land use categories were identified via the unsupervisedclassification of images from the Pleiades satellite on May 10, July 3 andAugust 26, 2013, and a map showing land cover/land use classes (water,winter crops, summer crops, pasture, barren soil, urban) was obtained. Aset of indicators (1961–2010) was used for risk assessment: standardisedprecipitation index, three months; soil moisture reserve; heat stress aridityindex; total precipitation on wet days; and consecutive dry days. Satellite-derived indices such as the normalised difference vegetation index; thenormalised difference drought index; and the normalised differencewater index were applied.

Analysing the findingsIn Caracal, mean annual air temperature rose by 0.5°C in the 1981–2010period, and in Covasna by 0.4°C compared to the reference period(1961–1990). There was a decreasing trend in annual precipitation inCaracal (526.1 mm compared to 565.9 mm) and a slight increase in

Covasna (513.1 mm compared to 500.8 mm). Climate projectionssuggest an increase in mean annual air temperature by around1.8°C in Caracal and 1.5°C in Covasna. Projections also indicate a0.7 percent decrease in annual rainfall in Caracal and a 6.1 percentincrease in Covasna. In summer, monthly rainfall will decreasecompared to the present. Projections suggest that the vegetationperiod for winter wheat may be 9 to 13 days shorter, and for maizecrops 15 to 18 days, in the 2021–2050 period due to higher airtemperatures. Maize yields may thus be 10.8 to 14.4 percent lowerdue to higher in-soil water deficits mainly during the grain fill period(July to August) at both sites. Water is used more efficiently by winterwheat with a later sowing date (October 20 and November 1 inCaracal; September 10 and October 5 in Covasna) compared withthe end of September and beginning of October. In maize, water isused more efficiently by crops with an earlier sowing date (April 1and 11 in Caracal; and March 20 and April 1 in Covasna) comparedwith April 20 or 10. Under future climate conditions, the most suitablewinter wheat varieties will have high or moderate vernalisation andmoderate photo-period requirements.

Ensuring stable productionIn both areas winter wheat yields will slowly increase due to higherCO2 concentrations in the air (affecting photosynthesis) and irrigationto counter the negative impact of shorter vegetation periods. Maizeyields will decrease due to higher temperatures that shorten thevegetation season, along with water stress, mainly during grainformation and filling. Maize is thus more vulnerable to hot summersand droughts. Simulations suggest that climate change may have abig impact on crops, depending on interactions between localchanges, the severity of the climate scenario, CO2 concentrationsand plant type. Field crop species should be selected for cultivationbased on the correlation between the local environment and thedegree of genotype resistance according to vegetation conditions(drought, excess humidity, high temperature, cold/frost periods, etc.).

Putting results into practiceThe pilot study on agricultural crop production in Romania

highlighted the following key points:

l Climate change will cause a significant shift in environmentalconditions, and adaptation in the agricultural sector will becrucial.

l The frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase.

l Yields of winter wheat are expected to increase and yields ofmaize to decrease mainly in the case of a scenario predicting hotsummers and drought conditions.

l The agricultural sector will face more climate-related risks, andcontinuing research will be needed into adaptation options (suchas the impacts of irrigation and the sustainability of yields in thecontext of various water-saving methods and irrigationtechnologies).

l The modelling of potential climate change impacts on farmingsystems, the identification of appropriate adaptation responsesand the development of capacities for measure implementationare long-term goals.

l Numerical experiments must be carried out to determine optimaldates and amounts for crop irrigation under various climatescenarios, and calculations must be made taking into accountbiophysical analyses of final yields in association with economicmodels.

l Meteorological information must be better disseminated tofarmers and awareness of water-saving techniques must be raisedin order to prevent drought and water scarcity.

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ContactsLead partner, project coordinatorAntonio Navarra Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change(CMCC) l Via Augusto Imperatore 16 l 73100 Lecce, Italy l Email: antonio.navarra@cmcc.it l

www.cmcc.it

Giulia GalluccioEuro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change(CMCC) l Corso Magenta 63 l

20123 Milan l Italy

www.orientgateproject.org

Pilot Study 1: Adapted forest management at LTER Zöbelboden

Pilot Study 2: Climatechange adaptation measures in Romanianagriculture

Pilot Study 3: Climatechange adaptation in the new water regime in Puglia region, Italy

Pilot Study 4: Effects of climate change on thewetland ecosystems of Attica region, Greece

Pilot Study 5: Water resources and the use of hydroelectricity, Italy

Pilot Study 6: Vulnerabilityassessment in Budapestand Veszprém

Tel.: (39-02) 520 36988 l

Email: giulia.galluccio@cmcc.it l

www.cmcc.it

Pilot study 2 coordinatorElena MateescuNational Meteorological Administration ofRomania l Sos. Bucuresti-Ploiesti 97 l Bucharest l013686 Romania l Tel.: (40-21) 316-2139 l

Email: elena.mateescu@meteoromania.ro lwww.meteoromania.ro