Adaptation during Urbanization

Daniel Schensul, Technical Division, UNFPA

Climate Change in a Growing, Urbanizing World: Understanding the Demography of Adaptation

Environmental Change and Security Program Wilson Center

October 2nd, 12:00pm – 1:30pm

The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change, UNFPA/IIED/El Colegio de Mexico

Part 1: Population Dynamics and Adaptation: Key Concepts and Perspectives Populating Adaptation: Incorporating Population Dynamics in Adaptation

Policy and Practice Daniel Schensul and David Dodman Fair and Effective Responses to Urbanization and Climate Change:

Tapping Synergies and Avoiding Exclusionary Policies Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, George Martine and Cecilia Tacoli Migration as a Response to Local and Global Transformations: A Typology

of Mobility in the Context of Climate Change Cecilia Tacoli

Part 2: Population Data for Adaptation: Sources and Methodologies Part 3: The Planning and Practice of Adaptation

Populating adaptation

The central argument the importance of incorporating population dynamics into climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning

Changing the discussion from what to who, from city to urban residents

The way forward bringing data on population vulnerability and resilience to adaptation planning; building networks and capacity

Population

Settlements (and “society”)

Urbanization? Migration? Household composition?

Social aspects of vulnerability and resilience?

AR5 discussion of population

Global population size and emissions projections Population issues in the section on “human health,

well-being and security” Migration in the chapter on rural areas Emphasis on “marginalized populations” Chapters within Adaptation and Mitigation sections

on cities City focus on infrastructure, ecosystems services,

built environment, less so on population vulnerability, resilience or change

Population dynamics

“the change in population size, distribution by age, spatial distribution (including urbanization), density,

composition of households and family and the variables that generate these results: fertility,

mortality, migration and family formation”

The case for populating adaptation

Dynamism: changing vulnerability linking to changing population size, composition and characteristics

The first rule of cities is that they are constantly changing. “Indirect adaptation” – broad interventions to build resilience

at the intersection of population dynamics and development How the world adds 2.5 billion new urban residents in the

next 40 years – where they live, in what housing, what they do – will shape adaptation, mitigation, and development.

“Direct adaptation” – age structure, migration, and spatial distribution/urbanization are at the heart of vulnerability and efforts to reduce it

We need to know the size, density, composition and characteristics, now and projected, of populations in climate exposed areas.

Defining vulnerability

The degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007)]

Many approaches to city resilience

Changing the adaptation discussion

“Incorporating population dynamics into adaptation

can help in understanding who is most vulnerable, why, and how to target policies to decrease that

vulnerability”

Urbanization and climate vulnerability

People are migrating towards vulnerability 360 million urbanites living in Low Elevation Coastal Zones

in 2000 (Mcgranahan, Balk and Anderson 2007) Coastal cities continuing to draw people in

The rise in inequality – enormous variations in vulnerability within cities, within exposed areas Differential impacts of Sandy, Katrina, etc.

Most people live in secondary and tertiary cities that have limited capacity and resources for climate change

Challenges of governance for people who have not yet arrived, and for climate impacts that are only beginning to arrive

Not just the megacities!

World Urbanization Prospects, 2011, UN Population Division

Unpacking Exposure

Who lives or works in the locations most exposed to hazards related to the direct or indirect impacts of climate change?

Who lives or works in locations lacking the infrastructure that reduces risk?

Whose homes and neighbourhoods face greatest risks when impacts occur?

[Hardoy and Pandiella (2009)]

Low-lying settlement, Bacon Poblacion, Philippines

Unpacking Adaptive Capacity

Who lacks knowledge, capacity and opportunities to take immediate short-term measures to limit impacts?

Who is least able to cope with impacts? Who is least able to adapt to avoid impacts?

[Hardoy and Pandiella (2009)]

Goals for adaptation policies and programmes

1. Bridge the social and physical 2. Push the time horizon 3. Move from responding to anticipating Population dynamics are critical to achieving these

goals.