adap financial forecasting part i britten pund, nastad evan dial, rudd wisdom april 17, 2013
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ADAP Financial ForecastingPart IBritten Pund, NASTADEvan Dial, Rudd WisdomApril 17, 2013
![Page 2: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Agenda
Financial forecasting and ADAP
Projecting fiscal needs for ADAP
Using the ADAP financial forecasting model
Next steps and TA
![Page 3: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Financial Forecasting and ADAP
![Page 4: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Characteristics of an Ideal ADAP Financial Forecasting Model
Predictive: a model that is adequately able to offer an indication of what the future might hold for an individual ADAP
Explanatory: a model that is able to articulate in numbers an accurate picture of the state of ADAP
Convenient: a model that is easily accessible and easy to use Adaptable/flexible: a model that is able to be modified based
on the individual needs of an ADAP and readily able to meet different conditions (i.e., traditional ADAP vs. insurance)
Simple/understandable: a model that is easy to understand and not elaborate or complicated
Margin of error: a model that allows for an acceptable allowance for slight error or miscalculation, depending on changing circumstances
![Page 5: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Things to Consider
What data elements should ADAPs include in a financial forecasting model?
What trends should ADAPs be monitoring?
What information do ADAPs need to have to understand the data being inputted?
![Page 6: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Understanding the Basics: Time Frame
ADAPs should use the most recent three to five years of data that is available.
The model developed by ADAP uses a minimum of two year (24 months) to allow for programs that have made more substantive changes in the past two years to adequately project costs.
![Page 7: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Understanding the Basics: Data Elements
Number of clients enrolled by ADAP.
Number of clients served by ADAP.
Number of new clients enrolled in the program.
Complete listing of all funding available for ADAP in the current year, based on funding category.
Data on rebates collected.
Data on program income collected from back-billing Medicaid.
Data on attrition rate.
![Page 8: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Examining and Analyzing Trends
Enrollment
Utilization
New enrollment
Funding
340B and ADAP Crisis Task Force rebates
Attrition rates
![Page 9: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Projecting Fiscal Needs for ADAP
![Page 10: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The Basis for Historical Data
In what context was the data collected?
What program changes were taking place that could impact data trends?
Was data collected in the same manner in which it is collected currently?
![Page 11: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Structure of ADAP
What is the enrollment process for clients?
How does the ADAP dispense medications?
How does ADAP wrap around other payers?
Program history, detailing major changes nationally and within state program– ADAP timeline
Systems changes
![Page 12: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Resources
Glossary of important terms
Definitions of variables included in the model
Variability of projections and seasonality of data
Unmet need
![Page 13: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
ADAP Financial Forecasting Model
![Page 14: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The Model
The model has two main components:– Traditional ADAP projections (full pay)– Insurance projections
The two projections result in a summary worksheet for each component, and for the total ADAP projection for both components combined.
![Page 15: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Traditional ADAP Projections
![Page 16: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Traditional ADAP Projections
![Page 17: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Traditional ADAP Projections
![Page 18: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Insurance Projections
![Page 19: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Insurance Projections
![Page 20: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Insurance Projections
![Page 21: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Summary Total
![Page 22: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Next Steps and TA
![Page 23: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Next Steps and TA
A second webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, May 1, 2013 from 2:00 pm to 3:00 pm ET. – This webinar will focus on technical assistance
regarding financial forecasting and implementing the model in your state.
– This webinar will provide an opportunity for ADAPs who have begun to use the newly developed model to ask questions and receive TA on its use.
TA is available for any state on the topic of ADAP financial forecasting.
![Page 24: ADAP Financial Forecasting Part I Britten Pund, NASTAD Evan Dial, Rudd Wisdom April 17, 2013](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ea45503460f94ba84c8/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Resources
An electronic copy of the ADAP financial forecasting model and companion document will be sent electronically to ADAP coordinators via the ADAP listserv on Thursday, April 18, 2013.
For more information about ADAP financial forecasting, please contact Britten Pund at