acumen7 1 accelerating uk nuclear new build tony roulstone july 2006
TRANSCRIPT
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Acumen7
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Accelerating UK Nuclear New Build
Tony Roulstone
July 2006
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Contents
• Background;
• Setting the conditions for success;
• Why is time important?
• Challenge for UK industry;
• Is the answer to the nuclear power gap
- Modular design & Off site construction?
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Background
• Three cycles of nuclear build:
o Magnox 11 stations 3 GWe 1960 & 70’s
o AGR 7 plants 8 GWE 1970 & 80’s
o PWR 1 plant 1.2GWe 1990s
• Nuclear contribution to UK electricity supply declining from ~25% to ~3% over the period 2000 – 2020 as first Magnox then AGRs close;
• Energy Reviews:
o 2002/3 promoted energy saving & wind/wave providing subsidies through supply obligations - 10% renewables.
o 2005/6 considering fall-off in UK oil & gas, security of supply & how to meet environmental targets.
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Nuclear debate – drivers & inhibitors
New Nuclear?
Carbon Emissions
Energy Security
Stable & competitive electricity price
Waste disposal
Capital Costs uncertain & large
Doubts about Nuclear Safety
Terrorism
Drivers Inhibitors
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Setting the conditions for success
• Clear understanding by public of the need for new nuclear;
• Waste disposal policy;
• Planning & licensing modernisation;
• Transitional incentive for nuclear re-start;
• Clarity on electricity market including use of carbon credits.
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UK programme assumptions
• Nuclear new build programme ‘like with like’ 10GWe;
• On existing licensed sites - British Energy & NDA ex Magnox;
• Privately funded & managed;
• Modern standard foreign plant – one of top 4 Gen III+ designs;
• Major public enquiry for the first station - with only site specific
issues being considered for later stations.
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Hartlepool B En
Torness B En
Dungeness B En & NDA
Sizewell NDA & B En
Trawsfynydd NDA
Wylfa NDA
Berkeley NDA
Heysham B En
Hunterston NDA & B En
Chapelcross NDA
Calder Hall NDA
Oldbury NDA
Hinkley Point NDA &
B En
Bradwell NDA
Nuclear power sites
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Generation III+ candidates for UK
Candidate systems for UK each based on a successful international design with the latest safety features:
• ACR 1000 AECL Canada
• AP1000 Westinghouse US
• ESBWR GE US
• EPR Areva France
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ACR 1000 – Atomic Energy of Canada
• 1000 MWe heavy water reactor derived from successful CANDU design built in Canada, Rumania & China;
• Cycle efficiency – 36%
• Capacity factor - 90% based on CANDU-6;
• Design life - 60 years;
• Construction cycle – 42 months;
• Yet to receive safety certification;
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AP1000 - Westinghouse
• 1GWe simplified passive PWR derived from CE & Westinghouse designs with over 100 reactors in US, Europe & Far East;
• Cycle efficiency – 33%;
• Capacity factor - 90% based on PWR family record;
• Design life - 60 years;
• Construction cycle – 36 months;
• US NRC design certificated;
• Selected by US utilities for NuStart applications made for site licences.
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ESBR - GE
• 1500 MWe boiling light water reactor evolved from ABWR built in large numbers in US, Sweden & Japan;
• Cycle efficiency – 36%;
• Capacity factor - 90% based on ABWR experience;
• Design life - 60 years;
• Construction cycle – 45 months;• NRC design certification in
process;• Selected by utilities in US for
NuStart.
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EPR - Areva
• 1600 MWe light water reactor evolved from proven French N4 & German Konvoi designs;
• Cycle efficiency - 36%;
• Capacity factor - 92% improving on N4 record;
• Design life - 60 years;
• 42 month construction cycle:
• Designed to EU safety standards;
• Being built at Olkiluoto in Finland & Flamville in France.
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Why is time important – for Investor?
• Individual build timescales for stations
• 2 years delay & 10% cost => +£250m investment
+15% through life costs
• 1GWe plant
• £1bn cost
• Build time 4 &1 yr
Cummulative Cash Flow
-1500
-500
500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Yr
M
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Why is time important – for HMG?
• Long timescale of re-starting nuclear build & enquiry ~ 10
years to first electricity;
• Constrains of capacity & build timescale mean
o Further 20 years to replace current nuclear capacity i.e. by 2037.
o Decommissioning of current stations opens up carbon free energy
gap lasting many years.
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Challenge for UK industry
• Previous Gas reactors – too slow and very expensive;
• Cost overruns on major infrastructure projects – Wembley,
West Coast Mainline etc.;
• Loss of experienced & specialist nuclear engineers;
• Scale & complexity of programme – multiple stations
geographically dispersed, in same time frame.
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Conventional site based approach
Standard
• 8 Reactors 1.2GWe
• Capacity constraint - no more than 2 sites at any one time
R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8
Programme timescale 25 years
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An Alternative
Modular Design & Off-site
• 10 reactors @ 1GWe
• No parallel capacity constraints
R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10
Programme timescale 13 years
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Capacity increase
Capacity Build-up
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Yrs
GW
e
Standard
Modular
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Facing the issues – discussion topic
• Could modular build & off site construction be the answer?
o New plants designed for modular & shorter construction;
o Take best nuclear construction practice from anywhere in
the world – China & Korea?
o Learn from other major projects using build off site
techniques;
o Factory infrastructure & logistics?
o Radical programme coordination requirements.