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ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP XI Technologies Inc. Rob Kehrig June 16 , 2016

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Page 1: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOPXI Technologies Inc.Rob KehrigJune 16 , 2016

Page 2: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Disclaimer• National Instrument (“NI”) 51-101 of the Canadian Securities Administrators imposes oil and gas disclosure standards for Canadian public companies engaged in oil and gas activities. Encana complies with NI 51-101 disclosure• requirements in its most recently filed annual information form (“AIF”). Detailed Canadian protocol disclosure is contained in Appendix A and under “Narrative Description of the Business” of the AIF. Certain disclosure is also• prepared in accordance with U.S. disclosure requirements as set forth in Appendix D of the AIF. A description of the primary differences between the disclosure requirements under Canadian standards and under U.S. standards is• set forth under the heading “Reserves and Other Oil and Gas Information” in the AIF. Additional detail regarding Encana’s economic contingent resources disclosure is available in the Supplemental Disclosure Document filed• concurrently with the AIF.• All estimates are effective as of December 31, 2015, are derived from reports prepared by independent qualified reserves evaluators engaged by Encana and are prepared in accordance with procedures and standards contained in• the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGEH”), NI 51-101 and SEC regulations, as applicable. Information on the forecast prices and costs used in preparing the estimates are contained in the AIF. For additional• information relating to risks associated with the estimates of reserves and resources, see “Risk Factors” in the AIF.• Reserves are the estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable f rom known accumulations, from a given date forward, based on: analysis of drilling, geological,• geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted as being reasonable. Proved reserves are those reserves which can be estimated with a high• degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves. Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than• proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves. Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less• certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. Contingent resources do not constitute,• and should not be confused with, reserves. Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as ofa given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or• technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contin gencies. There is uncertainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the• resources. All of the resources classified as contingent are considered to be discovered, and as such have been assigned a 10 0% chance of discovery, but have however been risked for the chance of development. The chance of• development is defined as the likelihood of a project being commercially viable and development proceeding in a timely fashio n. Determining the chance of development requires taking into consideration each contingency and• quantifying the risks into an overall development risk factor at a project level. Contingent resources are categorized as economic if those contingent resources have a positive net present value under currently forecasted prices and• costs. In examining economic viability, the same fiscal conditions have been applied as in the estimation of Encana’s reserve s. Contingencies include factors such as required corporate or third party (such as joint venture partners)• approvals, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of infrastructure or markets.• Encana uses the terms play, resource play, total petroleum initially-in-place (“PIIP”), natural gas-in-place (“NGIP”), and crude oil-in-place (“COIP”). Play encompasses resource plays, geological formations and conventional plays.• Resource play describes an accumulation of hydrocarbons known to exist over a large areal expanse and/or thick vertical secti on, which when compared to a conventional play, typically has a lower geological and/or commercial• development risk and lower average decline rate. PIIP is defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers - Petroleum Resources Management System (“SPE-PRMS”) as that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist originally in• naturally occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be• discovered (equivalent to “total resources”). NGIP and COIP are defined in the same manner, with the substitution of “natural gas” and “crude oil” where appropriate for the word “petroleum”. As used by Encana, estimated ultimate• recovery (“EUR”) has the meaning set out jointly by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and World Petroleum Congress in the year 2000, being those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially• recoverable from an accumulation, plus those quantities already produced therefrom.• In this presentation, Encana has provided information with respect to certain of its plays and emerging opportunities which i s “analogous information” as defined in NI 51-101. This analogous information includes estimates of PIIP,• NGIP, COIP or EUR, all as defined in the COGEH or by the SPE-PRMS, and production type curves. This analogous information is presented on a basin, sub-basin or area basis utilizing data derived from Encana's internal sources,• as well as from a variety of publicly available information sources which are predominantly independent in nature. Production type curves are based on a methodology of analog, empirical and theoretical assessments and workflow• with consideration of the specific asset, and as depicted in this presentation, is representative of Encana’s current program, including relative to current performance. Some of this data may not have been prepared by qualified• reserves evaluators or auditors, may have been prepared based on internal estimates, and the preparation of any estimates may not be in strict accordance with COGEH. Estimates by engineering and geo-technical practitioners• may vary and the differences may be significant. Encana believes that the provision of this analogous information is relevant to Encana's oil and gas activities, given its acreage position and operations (either ongoing or planned) in• the areas in question, and such information has been updated as of the date hereof unless otherwise specified. Due to the early life nature of the various emerging plays discussed in this presentation, PIIP is the most relevant• specific assignable category of estimated resources. There is no certainty that any portion of the resources will be discovered. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the estimated PIIP,• NGIP, COIP or EUR. Disclosure regarding drilling locations is based on internal estimates, may include proved, probable and unbooked locations, and assume a number of wells that can be drilled per section based on industry• practice and/or internal review. The drilling locations which Encana will actually drill will ultimately depend upon the avai lability of capital, regulatory and partner approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and natural gas prices, costs,• actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors.• 30-day IP and other short-term rates are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. The conversion of natural gas volumes to barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) is on the basis of six thousand cubic feet• to one barrel. BOE is based on a generic energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent economic value equivalency at the wellhead. Readers are cautioned that BOE may be

• misleading, particularly if used in isolation. In other words, this is just my personal opinion.

Page 3: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Who is this guy?

“The oil and natural gas we rely on for 75 percent of our energy are running out.”... Jimmy Carter

Page 4: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Outline• Strategy• What Production Information Can Tell Us• Why Decline Rates are So Important• New XI Decline Methodology• Waterflood and EOR• Search Options• Conclusions• Examples

Page 5: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

XI Products

•AssetBook•AssetBook Graphs•PoolBook

Page 6: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

StrategyAcquisition Screening starts with your Growth Strategy:

• Oil or Gas/Liquids• Geographic region• Organic growth vs Acquire & Exploit• Conventional vs Unconventional

Page 7: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

What is Strategy?

• In 1996, Michael Porter authored a paper entitled “What is Strategy”1.

• Porter argues that competitive strategy is "about being different." He adds, "It means deliberately choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique mix of value.“

1. Michael E Porter, (1996) “What is Strategy?”, Harvard Business Review, November-December: 61-78

Page 8: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Your Strategy will Drive Your Search• What are you looking for:

• High productivity deep basin gas?• Exploring around edges of pools (“Halo” play)?• Low RF oil pools on primary production?• Long life waterfloods with upside?• Underexploited parts of large regional pools?

Key Question: What will you do with the asset that is different than the current owner?

Page 9: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

What do we really know about an Oil or Gas Reservoir?

• Seismic - limited resolution• Core and well logs - a tiny sample of the entire reservoir• Pool edges - not well defined• Fluid contacts - may not be distinct• Pressure – difficult to get accurate data• Well tests - short in duration

The information we have on hydrocarbon reservoirs is always sparse and incomplete.

Page 10: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Production Information

Monthly production information (oil, gas and water) on each well is an excellent source of information

Page 11: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

What can Production Information tell us?Parameter What this tells youInitial Productivity Reservoir QualityCurrent Prod/Initial Prod State of Pressure DepletionWatercut or WOR Maturity of water driveDecline Rate or RLI Productivity versus Resource in PlaceGOR State of Pressure DepletionOOIP/OGIP Size of the potential prizeRecovery Factor Remaining potential resource left to recoverAPI Gravity Type of EOR process to consider

Page 12: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Why do wells decline?

1. Reservoir pressure depletion2. Injected fluid displacing hydrocarbon3. Mechanical issues (wear, plugging, etc)

Page 13: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Pressure Depletion

Page 14: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Water Displacing Oil

Page 15: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Mechanical Issues

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Production

Pump Replaced

Page 16: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Why are Decline Rates Important?Three reasons why lower decline rates are beneficial:1. Indicates large resource relative to offtake2. Leads to a more sustainable business model3. Abandonment and reclamation costs are deferred

Page 17: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Why are Decline Rates Important?

Low decline rates indicate a large resource in place relative to the rate of drainage of the reservoir.

02468

PRODUCTION

02468

PRODUCTION

Page 18: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Decline Rates and Sustainability

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%10,000 18% 27% 37% 46% 55%15,000 27% 41% 55% 68% 82%20,000 37% 55% 73% 91% 110%25,000 46% 68% 91% 114% 137%30,000 55% 82% 110% 137% 164%35,000 64% 96% 128% 160% 192%40,000 73% 110% 146% 183% 219%

Required re-investment of cashflow to keep production flat(assuming operating netback of $15 per boe).

Decline Rate (% per year)

Cos

t of P

rod

Adds

($/b

oepd

)

Low decline rates = sustainable business model

Page 19: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Decline Rates and End of Life LiabilitiesAssets with low decline rates will have a long economic life.For example: Asset #1 is declining at 20% per yearAsset #2 is declining at 5% per year

Remaining life of Asset #2 is 4X longer than Asset #1.

R&A Liability

Undiscounted($MM)

Discounted 5 years ($MM)

Discounted20 years ($MM)

NPV10% 30.0 17.7 3.6

Page 20: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

XI’s New Decline Methodology• Use data from the last 24 months only• Fit an exponential decline to the production data to

calculate a decline rate• Distinguish between “Old” wells (on production for more

than 24 months) and “New” wells (less than 24 months)• For Old wells, if no valid decline rate is calculated, use a

minimum 4% decline (“MinSub”).• For New wells, if no valid decline is calculated, use a

substitution based on the median of all wells in the Pool (“PoolSub”).

• Maximum decline rate of 45% for Old wells.

Page 21: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Comparison of Corporate Decline Rates

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Tourmaline ARC Peyto PennWest Seven Gen Whitecap Pine Cliff

Old XI New XI Scotia

Page 22: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Distribution of Average Corporate Declines

Page 23: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Waterflood and EOR• General Search Criteria for Oil Assets:

• Large OOIP• Low recovery factors• Low decline rate

Page 24: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Waterflood and EOR (cont’d)

• Specific Waterflood/EOR Strategies:• Waterflood a pool that is depleted• Fix up a poorly managed waterflood• Implement a polymer or ASP flood• Implement CO2 or hydrocarbon miscible flood

Page 25: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Search Options• By company (private/public, production, decline rate)• By Region, Field, Zone, Pool• Well productivity (original or current)• Decline rates (oil, gas or boe’s)• Water (Watercut, WOR, WGR)• Pools with large OOIP/OGIP and low Recovery factors• Type curves for recent wells• Pools with no recent drilling• Other reservoir factors (depth, pressure, etc)

Page 26: ACQUISITION SCREENING WORKSHOP - XI Technologies...geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally a ccepted

Conclusions• Your corporate strategy will determine the best screening criteria to use

• Production information - in particular, decline rates – can be extremely valuable

• The new XI methodology for calculating well-by-well decline rates is simpler and more accurate

• The AssetBook/PoolBook combination is a powerful tool for acquisition screening