ach exercise steps 1-8

7/23/2019 ACH Exercise Steps 1-8

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/ach-exercise-steps-1-8 1/12

The PRC-Taiwan Crisis; Assessing Alternative Outcomes

David Doolittle

INTL 4! - Critical Anal"sis

Pro#essor Re$e%ah &oughon

Octo$er !'th

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Step 1-6: ACH Process

ACH Step One: Identify Possible Scenario Outcomes (Hypotheses)

Number Hypothesis

0"(othesis 1!China and Taiwan reach a diplomatic solution throughnegotiations and all parties agree to difuse tensions with orwithout concessions

0"(othesis 1,China uses embargoes blockades and limited military actionto inuence Taiwanese election results

0"(othesis 12China uses direct military actions invading Taiwan with theintent o conquering and disposing the current leadership

0"(othesis 14 TSU wins the election declares independence o Taiwandeclaring war on China and taking the rst strike beore

China reacts0"(othesis 13

!T wins the election prompting TSU to challenge legitimacyo election" civil war occurs the !T being possibly supportedby Chinese military

Points

Possible

Points Earned

ACH Step Two: !idence "or and !idence A#ainst ach Hypothesis

ACH Steps Three and "our: Assess !idence for $%ia#nosticity& and liminate !idence

ACH Steps Five and Si: !"# Eliminate Hypotheses$ and !6# %denti&y 'inchpin Evidence

0"(othesis #$ Evidence

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➔ (H1a) List three pieces of evidenceindicating the crisis )ill be resolved

diplomatically*

0!5

Political

.olution

0,5

Limited+

Interventi

on

025

Direct

Attac%

$ 6vidence 1!7 O(en source re(orting suggests 0u 8ianto s(ea%s with

.ecretar" o# the 9N /eneral :an i &oon to intervene 2

da"s (rior to election5

< - -

.uggests 0u 8ianto would rather di##use tensions then see them escalate in an"

situation resulting in 0,a and or 02a

$ 6vidence 1,According to the =ashington Times Taiwan President Chen

.hui-$ian agrees to send re(resentatives to discuss thesituation 3 da"s (rior to election5

< - -

$ 6vidence 127 In the historical overview two 9. carrier $attle grou(s

di##used tensions during the !>>? Taiwanese election crisis

!>>?5

< - -

&ade irrelevant $" =hite 0ouse statement the" cannot ensure su((ort i# escalation,3 da"s (rior5

%ypothesis #$ Evidence

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➔ (H1b) List three pieces of evidenceindicating the crisis )ill not be resolved

diplomatically*

0!5

Political

.olution

0,5

Limited+

Interventi

on

025

Direct

Attac%

2



$ 6vidence 1!7 Taiwan National .ecurit" :ureau N.:5 claims PRC is

orchestrating T.9 victor" to create tensions $etween themaccording to an uncon#irmed insider re(ort @3 da"s (rior to

election5

- < <

=ould con#irm PRC intended to increase tensions #rom the $eginning leading to

dis(rove 0! in #avor o# 0,a or more then li%el" 02a+ This would ma%e the

evidence ! #rom 0!a irrelevant+ I# in#ormation is not true then it $ecomes

irrelevant to dis(roving 0!

$ 6vidence 1,7 Taiwan news re(orts President Chen .hui-$ian has increased

the alert level o# Taiwanese de#ense #orces to %ee( PRC #rom

inter#ering in election ?3 da"s (rior to election5

- ** **

=hether Taiwan increases their de#ense #orces or not can onl" $e seen as

aggressive maneuvers #rom the PRC view(oint discouraging di(lomac"+ 0owever

it does not a((lica$l" (la" into whether 0!a 0,a or 02a would $e the P+CBs COA $ecause it is inde(endent o# their actions and intentions as it was initiated $" the

Taiwan de#ense #orce (ossi$l" as a result o# (revious incursions o# intimidation $"

the PRC into Taiwanese elections c !>>?5

$ 6vidence 12The =hite 0ouse e(ressed 9. President O$ama cannot

(romise su((ort o# Taiwan i# situation escalates ,3 da"s

(rior to election5

- - -

=ould Taiwan (roceed with rhetoric i# the" %new the 9. would not come to theiraid at #ull escalation This could de(end on i# the T.9 (ositions are orchestrated

$" the PRC as the N.: claims or $" nationalist sentiments+ The T.9 rhetoric did $egin shortl" a#ter the N.: announcement and immediatel" #ollowing the PRC

$egan ma%ing militar" movements+


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➔ (H2a) List three pieces of evidenceindicating the crisis will be resolvedwith limited intervention.

0!5

Political

.olution

0,5

Limited+

Interventi

on

025

Direct

Attac%

$ 6vidence 1!9. PACCO& re(orts ighter regiment (atrols minimum 43

aircra#t5 in strait o# Taiwan have increased 3E , da"s

(rior to election5

- < <

ighters could $e used to en#orce a Fno #l" GoneB or in su((ort o# 02a to disa$le

Taiwanese air de#enses #or :-? $om$er runs

$ 6vidence 1,7inhua state news announces the PLA will $e conducting

C..-? missile tests in Taiwan strait in the coming da"s ,


- < <

9n%nown target o# missile tests is alarming+ This intelligence ga( needs to $e

#illed+ &issiles could $e Taiwan mainland smaller Taiwanese islands or into theTaiwan strait to test ca(a$ilities+ Too man" un%nowns in 0,a 6, to ma%e a

conclusive Hudgment+

$ 6vidence 127 , PLAN anti shi( su$marines le#t Ning$o and their location

is un%nown+ In addition an un%nown num$er o# .u$marines

at Canton hangGhou and =henGhou are ordered to (re(are

#or JetendedK o(erations according to the N.A 4*43 da"s (rior to election5

- < <

According to scenario overview anti shi( su$marines would $e necessar" to

en#orce a $loc%ade o# TaiwanBs water travel and activel" engage in sa$otage o#

cargo shi(s leaving Taiwanese (orts+ .u$marines could carr" o##ensive missiles

and nuclear wea(ons so could also $e used #or a direct attac%++ .u$marines couldalso $e a diversion to redirect intel e##orts towards determining their location+


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➔ (H2b) List three pieces of evidenceindicating the crisis will not beresolved with limited intervention.

0!5

Political

.olution

0,5

Limited+

Interventi

on

025

Direct

Attac%

$ 6vidence 1!According to an un%nown source the PLA has issued&o$iliGation orders #or un%nown num$er o# PLA #ighter

regiments minimum 43 #ighter (lanes5 to the PRC NanHing

district sharing shore with Taiwan strait 2 da"s (rior to

election5

- < <

=hile this could $e (art o# a $uild u( to intimidate or coerce Taiwan it is #ar more

li%el" given the num$er o# units $eing moved and the location these are $eingmoved into to su((ort 02+

3



$ 6vidence 1,9. .TRATCO& re(orts >>*>'th missile regiments in

Luciao and Le(ning success#ull" test #ired , missiles @maimum %nown missiles $etween >>*>'*>?th regiments5

into central China 4 da"s (rior to election5

- < <

&issile tests are done to ensure when the" are needed the" will $e (recise in hitting

their o$Hective and are also used to signal adversaries o# intention+ These missiles

were #ired in the o((osite direction (ossi$l" to mislead intel e##orts into $elieving

#urther claims o# tests would also $e on mainland China+

$ 6vidence 12/eneral Liang /uanglie announces through 7inhua statemedia a series o# unrelated naval eercises will occur near

Taiwan ?3 da"s (rior to election5

- - -

Diagnostic value is limited due to what a((ears to $e su$marine and am(hi$ious

suad alread" in (re(arations #or eercises or at tac% dis(roving 0,a in #avor o# the

eercise $eing solel" an eercise or more ela$oratel" (art o# 02a+ Also whetherthese are naval eercises or (art o# the PRCBs COA is not %nown+ Ongoing

eercises could hurt an" di(lomatic negotiations in (rocess as well+


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➔ (H3a) List three pieces of evidenceindicating the crisis will be resolvedwith a direct attack.

0!5

Political

.olution

0,5

Limited+

Interventi

on

025

Direct

Attac%

$ 6vidence 1!7 Imager" #rom an un%nown source reveals hangGhou and

=henGhou naval (orts have several am(hi$ious assault

suadrons (luralit" meaning ! minimum landing cra#twith (otential to trans(ort 2 minimum troo(s5 in earl"

(rocess o# loading su((lies , da"s (rior to election5

- - <

.everal indicators around this evidence would drive this h"(othesis with thisevidence to $eing a (art o# the most li%el" PRC COA+ .ee indicators $elow #or

additional in#ormation+ Credi$ilit" o# imager" source also needs to $e considered

in #inal Hudgment o# enem" COA+

$ 6vidence 1,9.A reconnaissance #lights con#irm >?th missile regiment

in Nan(ing is (re(aring s"stems un%nown num$er o# ..&

C..-? missiles5 to #ire , da"s (rior to election5

- < <

iring missiles into Taiwanese water is a %nown historical action o# the PLA to

intimidate Taiwan+ I# PLA (la"ing into the assum(tion anal"sts have that this

evidence would lead them to conclude Taiwan is li%el" to onl" choose 0, in the

scenario then the PLA ma" $e a((l"ing e##ective D*D to their true COA

$ 6vidence 127 9n%nown num$er o# PLA :-? $om$ers ca(a$le o# carr"ing

conventional chemical and or nuclear warheads5 at Luiaoair#ield are seen in imager" #rom un%nown imager" source

u(loading un%nown t"(e o# A,. munitions , da"s (rior to

election5

- - <

De(ending on various un%nowns in this evidence num$er o# $om$ers t"(e o#

munitions source o# imager"5 and the #act 02$Bs 62 suggests a wea% case #or

intimidation $eing utiliGed the assum(tion a #air amount o# D*D is $eing a((lied to%ee(ing those un%nowns hidden to mas% intentions could $e a((lica$le+ Three total

intelligence ga(s in this evidence are either deli$erate to ma%e 9. and Taiwanese

intel (ursue this #alse lead or indicative o# a $om$ing attac% $eing incor(orated in

the PRCBs COA+ In case o# 02 $om$ers and #ighters would $e the #irst to so#ten u(

o((osition #or a landing #orce according to unit descri(tions+ Dece(tion ma" alsoindicate the $om$ers are u(loading chemical or nuclear munitions+ This could

create a strong international $ac%lash against the PRCBs COA which could (rom(t

them to %ee( munition t"(es secret until a sur(rise attac%+


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➔ (H3b) List three pieces of evidenceindicating the crisis will not beresolved with a direct attack.

0!5

Political

.olution

0,5

Limited+

Interventi

on

025

Direct

Attac%

$ 6vidence 1!The Peo(les Li$eration Arm" Dail" re(orts PRC

Am(hi$ious suadrons in hangGhou and =henGhou !

landing cra#t minimum with (otential to trans(ort 2minimum in#antr"5 are to (artici(ate in large scale eercise

in net ! da"s 23 da"s (rior to election5

- < -

&ade irrelevant $" eercise alread" starting at , da"s (rior to election+ Could

have $een used at time to initimidate Taiwanese (oliticians or motive to $uild u(

militar" #orces #or additional im(lications in a PRC COA that is 0, or 02 $ut the

4



situation has a((eared to develo( #urther+

$ 6vidence 1,According to the historical overview missiles #ired into

Taiwan strait during !>>? election crisis did not hit mainlandTaiwan !>>?5

** < -

:ecause in the (ast the" have not #ired missiles into Taiwan does not mean the"

would now do so+ China also did this during the election so i# the" were to engage

0,a as the COA it would li%el" ha((en soon a#ter message tra##ic ceases+

&aintains relevance $ecause China could $e using this to their advantage to createthe assum(tion this will $e their COA as an a((lication o# D*D

$ 6vidence 12Chinese state media 7inhua5 shows video o# un%nown

num$er o# $om$ers #rom an un%nown date attac%ing #oreign

renegade #orce with conventional or chemical munitions 43


- < -

Mideo could $e used to intimidate Taiwanese (oliticians $ut also could $e a reveal

o# #irst stri%e o(tions in event o# 02a+ Considering this intimidation $ecause whilethere is a threat it doesnBt conclusivel" lead to 02a $eing the directed COA+

Points Possible !

Points Earned !

Step ,: Analysis o& Findins

Section % - %ntroduction

In TaiwanBs (residential election tension has develo(ed $etween the Taiwan government

and the Peo(leBs Re(u$lic o# China PRC5+ Two (arties are running #or President the

uomintang &T5 and Taiwan .olidarit" 9nion T.95+ The T.9 candidate is re(resented $"

.hu Chin-Chiang+ .hu has re(eatedl" used (olitical s(eech involving inde(endence sentiments+

These s(eeches challenge the PRCBs !>>? JAnti-Cessation LawK which allows the PRC to Juse

non-(eace#ul means against the Taiwan inde(endence movement should Taiwan declare

inde(endenceK+ The PRC regards Taiwan as its sovereign territor"+ The election is now , da"s

awa"+ The Communist Part" o# China CPC5 and the Peo(les Li$eration Arm" PLA5 activities

o# the last @ da"s show growing sensitivit" to ChiangBs (olitical tactics+ There are 2 h"(otheses

0!-025 to a #uture course o# action COA5 $" the PRC)

0!+ The CPC and Taiwan reach a di(lomatic solution di##using tensions

0,+ The PRC uses intimidation tactics and limited militar" intervention in#luencing

5



election results

02+ The PLA engages in direct militar" actions to conuer Taiwan

Section %% - .utcome assessed to be most li/ely to occur: (irect attac/

.u((orting evidence suggests a direct attac% and limited intervention are euall"

(ro$a$le+ 0owever the (resence o# signi#icant intelligence ga(s di##erent PRC COAs #rom

historical (recedents and 02 having the most timel" su((orting evidence all contri$ute to its

li%elihood+

6vidence !a is a PRC activit" consistent with a direct attac% s(eci#icall" a land invasion+

Imager" o# an un%nown origin revealed , da"s (rior to the election JhangGhou and =henGhou

naval (orts have several am(hi$ious assault suadrons in the earl" (rocess o# loading su((liesK+

6vidence !a is also a strong di##erence #rom (ast PRC reactions to Taiwanese inde(endence

sentiments+ The PRC has (reviousl" used intimidation through limited missile stri%es and

threatening #urther militar" action+ 6vidence !$ (rovides an argument where the su((orting

evidence could $e a training eercise in (rogress+ JThe Peo(les Li$eration Arm" Dail" re(orts

23 da"s (rior to the election PLA Am(hi$ious suadrons in hangGhou and =henGhou are to

(artici(ate in large scale eercise in net ! da"sK The announcement o# eercises has $een

made irrelevant due to $eing introduced $e#ore the revelation o# evidence !$ ma%ing this more

su((ortive o# a direct attac% scenario i# the source is relia$le+

6vidence ,a is consistent with 02 and constitutes another de(arture #rom historic

(recedent $" the PRC in res(onse to TaiwanBs elections+ , da"s (rior to the election an

un%nown num$er o# JPLA :-? $om$ers ca(a$le o# carr"ing conventional chemical and nuclear

warheads5 at Luiao air#ield are seen in imager"K #rom an un%nown source Ju(loadingK an

un%nown t"(e o# Jair to sur#ace munitions+K In ,a the un%nowns (rovide a signi#icant amount o#

6



intelligence ga(s+ ,a also comes #rom an un%nown source which ma%es the diagnostic value

contingent on the sourceBs relia$ilit"+ 6vidence ,$ attem(ts to devalue the evidence a$ove+ 43

da"s (rior to the election JChinese state media 7inhua5 shows video o#K an un%nown num$er

o# J$om$ersK #rom an un%nown date Jattac%ing a #oreign renegade #orceK with un%nown t"(e o#

munitions+ ,a then could $e dated imager" o# the $om$ers $eing (re(ared to engage the

Jrenegade #orceK the ,$ newscast re#ers to+ The su((orting evidence then would $e #alse

decreasing the (ro$a$ilit" assigned to 02+ .how o# #orce can also $e indicative o# ca(a$ilit" and

intention+ I# the PRC is (lanning an attac% with :-? $om$ers evidence ,$ (ossi$l" revealed

ca(a$ilit" and intention unintentionall"+

6vidence 2a addresses , da"s (rior to the election+ J9.A reconnaissance #lights

con#irm >?th missile regiment in Nan(ing are cali$rating s"stems un%nown num$er o# C..-?

missiles5 to #ire+K iring the missiles could $e to intimidate Taiwan or as (art o# a direct attac%+

0owever evidence 2$ states Jmissiles #ired into Taiwan territorial waters during the !>>?

election crisis did not hit mainland TaiwanK+ Again (ast actions o# the PRC are not indicative o#

(resent intentions+ In this instance the" can $e inter(reted as the PRC signaling Taiwan their

ca(a$ilities which would $e su((ortive o# intimidation tactics or 0,+ Pre(aring missiles to #ire

could also $e to tra( anal"sts in $elieving (recedents are the intended COA+

02 is mainl" driven $" ac%nowledging evidence !a and ,a are #rom credi$le and timel"

sources+ There a((ears in this evidence an e##ort to hide the t"(e o# su((lies PLA #orces are

(re(aring+ The Jun%nownsK in 02 could also $e deli$erate to hide the PRCBs COA+ nowing the

:-? munition t"(e ma" show chemical or nuclear munitions $eing u(loaded+ This could (rovide

a necessit" #or the PRC to em(lo" dece(tion in order to avoid li%el" international (ressure

7



against this COA+ To shroud this signal the CPC and PLA ma" create noise (romoting 0,+ 0,Bs

evidence ma" con#irm this sus(icion as evidence 2a in this h"(othesis argua$l" has done+

Section %%% - Second 0ost li/ely to .ccur: 'imited intervention

0, (rovides relia$le non controlled in#ormation RNCI5 to the argument+ RNCI is onl"

relevant i# Jthe enem" is not aware o# our access or is unli%el" to realiGe that the in#ormation

can $e used as an indicator o# his #uture $ehaviorK am ,4 2>5+ To im(l" 0, without

considering the entiret" o# the argument (resented $ecause 02 and 0, share eual (ro$a$ilities

would $e satis#icing+

6vidence !a is an eam(le #rom RNCI sources J9. PACCO& re(ortsK , da"s (rior to

the election JPRC ighter regiment (atrols in the strait o# Taiwan have increased 3EK+ ighters

could $e used to en#orce a Fno #l" GoneB or to Jdisa$le Taiwanese air de#ensesK+ 6vidence !$

comes #rom 2 da"s (rior to the election JThe PLA have issued &o$iliGation orders #orK an

un%nown num$er o# JPLA #ighter regiments to the PRC NanHing districtK $ordering Taiwan

strait+ An increase in #ighter (atrols ma" $e related to the mo$iliGation orders or signalling

intentions then it would $e suggestivel" su((ortive o# 02+

6vidence ,a is #rom , da"s (rior to the election J7inhua state news announces the PLA

will $e conducting C..-? missile tests o# the Chinese coast in the coming da"s+K .tate news is a

controlled in#ormation source+ The announcement could $e a #orm o# intimidation consistent

with 0, without considering evidence ,$+ 4 da"s (rior to election J9. .TRATCO& re(orts

>>*>'th missile regiments in Luciao and Le(ning success#ull" test #ired , missiles @

maimum %nown missiles $etween >>*>'*>?th regiments5 into central China+K A s(o%es(erson

#or the PLA con#irmed these were (lanned tests o# relia$ilit"+ This could indicate the C..-?

missiles tests in ,a are a continuation o# PLA relia$ilit" tests+ &issiles also ma" act again as

8



signalling as(ects o# the PRC intentions+

J, PLA nav" PLAN5 anti shi( su$marines le#t Ning$o Naval :ase and their location is

un%nown+ .u$marines at Canton hangGhou and =henGhou are ordered to (re(are #or etended

o(erations according to the N.AK+ :oth (ieces o# evidence 2a originate #rom 4 and 43 da"s

(rior to the election+ The N.A is also another eam(le o# a RNCI source+ Anti shi( su$marines

would $e Jnecessar" to en#orce a naval $loc%ade o# TaiwanK+ ?3 da"s (rior to the election

though PLA J/eneral Liang /uanglie announces through 7inhua state media a series o#

unrelated naval eercises will occur near Taiwan+K The su$marines ma" $e (art o# the eercise

also+ This evidence however is highl" dated and the situation has develo(ed with ongoing

mo$iliGations and (re(arations a((earing too strident #or a strateg" o# mere intervention

All 0, su((orting evidence comes #rom RNCI sources+ The a$ilit" to con#irm or den" 0,

relies on whether the PRC has mani(ulated the RNCI sources to (roduce a strategic advantage+

This would mani#est in t"ing u( collection resources to #ill intelligence ga(s mislead anal"tic

inter(retation to $elieving (recedents or create a (seudo COA+ In all evidence a strateg" o#

Limited Intervention is also consistent with a Direct Attac% eualiGing (ro$a$ilities+ PLA

su$marines can carr" o##ensive missiles and nuclear wea(ons used in a direct attac%+ inding the

un%nown location o# the #irst , su$marines could also $e a diversion t"ing u( collection

resources+ ighter (lanes would $e necessar" Jto so#ten landing Gones #or invading #orcesK thus

their activit" raises sus(icion o# a direct attac%+ I# the intended COA was a $om$er stri%e then

#ocusing e##orts on an invasion would $e misguidance+ Recent missile tests $" the PLA would $e

the li%el" COA #or intimidation $" the PRC leading anal"sts to ado(t 0, $ecause o# its

(recedence+ Consider also 0,Bs su((orting evidence in relation to timeliness+ Around the last

9



acuired evidence the 02 $om$er imager" is a host o# noise su((orting 0,+ These assum(tions

and evidence com$ined decrease the li%elihood o# 0,+

Section % - 'east li/ely to .ccur: (iplomatic di&&usion

.ome evidence su((orting 0! a((ears to $e consistent with 0, and 02+ 0! is considered

(ossi$le to unli%el"+ It is an ideal COA where limited conseuences a((ear to eist+ The PRCBs

$ene#it to a di(lomatic solution is (ondered a#ter (resenting the evidence+

O(en source re(orting attests in evidence !a 2 da"s (rior to the election JCPC (remier

0u 8ianto s(o%e with .ecretar" o# the 9N .ecretar" /eneral :an i &oon to interveneK+ The

a((eal a((ears sincere $" the CPC ma%ing !a consistent with resolving the situation with

di(lomac"+ The PLA activities o# 0, and 02 are direct contradictions to !a though and 8ianto

ma" $e stalling+ 8ianto told the PLA to Jconsider all a((lica$le (lansK 23 da"s (rior to the

election+ This means a di(lomatic solution is not im(ossi$le $ut evidence consistentl" (oints to a

di##erent h"(othesis+ Consider also @3 da"s (rior to the election JTaiwan National .ecurit"

:ureau N.:5 claims the PRC is orchestrating a T.9 victor" to create tensions according to an

uncon#irmed insider re(ort+K De(ending on that evidenceBs relia$ilit" the PRC ma" never have

intended then to use di(lomac"+ This denies the su((orting evidence its con#irmator" a$ilit" and

decreasing (ro$a$ilities o# 0! occurring+

6vidence ,a #rom the historical overview stated Jtwo 9. carrier $attle grou(s di##used

tensions during the !>>? Taiwan election crisisK+ The carrier $attle grou(s hel(ed (rovide a

$u##er $etween the PRC and Taiwan to #oster more di(lomatic discussion+ The PRC could e(ect

this (recedent to $e re(eated i# current tensions continued to escalate+ This e(ectation ma"

(ossi$l" $e seen as the reason anti shi( su$marines were de(lo"ed+ The un%nown location o#

those su$marines ma" also e(lain wh" the =hite 0ouse e(ressed ,3 da"s (rior to the election

10



J9. President O$ama cannot (romise su((ort o# Taiwan i# situation escalatesK+ =ith the

locations un%nown the carrier $attle grou(s would $e vulnera$le decreasing their value as a tool

#or the di(lomatic (rocess+ Conclusivel" then neither the PRC or Taiwan then can de(end on the

9. to contri$ute to a di(lomatic solution+ Again it does not mean one will not $e attem(ted it Hust

lessens (ro$a$ilities o# 0! $eing the li%el" COA+

Resolving the situation di(lomaticall" would $ene#it the PRC increasing their standing

as a non con#rontational world (ower with the 9N and the international communit"+ It ma" also

increase leverage in resolving #uture escalations o# tension+ A di(lomatic solution would $e a

(olitical win #or the PRC as the situation needed to $e resolved out o# (ossi$le #ear o# PLA

ca(a$ilities+

* Conclusion

The attem(ts at di(lomac" continue des(ite the PLA activities con#irming the PRC is

trul" reviewing all Ja((lica$le (lansK+ =hich is wh" 0!-02 were all considered euall"

(ro$a$le until the introduction o# evidence suggesting otherwise+ A#ter the N.: released

in#ormation that PRC (lanned to increase tensions $etween the two countries i# .hu is elected

PRC activities escalated to the (resent hostile environment+ I# a di(lomatic solution is to $e

considered (ro$a$le again it ma" de(end on (roving the N.: re(ort #alse+ =ithout this there is

overwhelming evidential su((ort euall" #or 0, and 02+

Step 2: %ndicators

1. 6ast coastal PLA hos(itals told to e(ect wounded and casualties in coming da"s

reserve medical (ersonnel are told the" will $e wor%ing overtime at the reuest o# the

state,+ .u((orters on mainland China o# an inde(endent Taiwan or those sus(ected o#5

are increasingl" detained in (u$lic in #ront o# 7inhua camera crews

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2+ PLA ighter (lanes #lights into Taiwan airs(ace are decreasing their distance to

Taiwanese mainland

4+ Large uantities o# #uel are moved to militar" $uild u( sites

3+ CPC warnings are suddenl" redirected to di##erent enem" #or instance Ti$et or

western chinese Islamic etremists and overall direction o# s(eeches moves awa" #rom

tal%ing a$out Taiwan?+ Chinese (ort authorities $egin to hold Taiwanese merchant vessels in mainland

(ort #or etended (eriod over trade in#ringement allegations

@+ 0u 8ianto ma%es several (u$lic a((earances not mentioning Taiwan $ut acts

intended to $oost the (u$lic o(inion o# himsel#

=or%s Cited)

am 6(hraim+ Surprise Attack the Victim's Perspective+ Cam$ridge &ass+) 0arvard

9niversit" Press ,4

12

ach exercise steps 1-8

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