acetyls chain - world market overview 2015/apic2015... · 2015-05-07 · • world acetic acid...
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Acetyls Chain - World Market Overview
Keiji Wakatsuki
Chemicals Committee Meeting at APIC 2015
Seoul, 8 May 2015
APIC 2015ACETIC ACID/ACETYLS CHAIN
Vinyl AcetateMonomer
PVOH/PVA
EVA/VAEPVB/EVOH
Ethylene
Methanol Acetic Acid
Natural Gas
PTA Polyester/PET Resin
AceticAnhydride
EsterSolvents
Coal
MCAA
Ethyl/ButylAcetate
Acetate Flake/Acetate Tow
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Chlorine
Ethanol
Butanol
• Global acetic acid prices increased in late 2013/early 2014 due to long-term methanol plant outages in Southeast Asia and unplanned production problems for acetic acid in Saudi Arabia and the United States.
• Acetic acid prices peaked in Q2 2014 amid ongoing planned turnarounds in the US Gulf, unplanned production problems in other regions and persistent high methanol prices. An unplanned outage in the United Kingdom in Q3 supported prices in North America and Europe.
• US Gulf Coast producers maintained high utilisation rates – above 90% --in 2014 despite the ‘force majeure’ declaration by key downstream VAM and PTA consumers. Steady US economic activity and cheaper feedstock prices should underpin US production in 2015.
• Global utilisation rates were expected to remain close to 70% from 2015-2020 as over-supply conditions persist in China and various macro-economic scenarios keep markets unsteady.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
ACETIC ACID • VINYL ACETATE MONOMER2014 – A Year of Contrasts
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1,050
$/ton
APIC 2015
ACETIC ACID PRICES 2010 - 2015
USGExport
TaiwanImport
EuroContract
ChinaExport
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Total =12.9 Million Metric Tons
22%
6%
15%
8%
4%
2%
43%
19%
10%
13%
12%3%
1%
42%
N & S America
W Europe
NE Asia
S & SE Asia
ME & Africa
E Europe
China
Total =12.9 Million Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Production Consumption
APIC 2015
WORLD ACETIC ACID SUPPLY & DEMANDBY REGION 2014
VAM32%
Anhydride13%
Ethyl Acetate13%Butyl Acetate
7%
PTA20%
MCAA6%
Others9%
Total = 12.9 Million Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ACETIC ACID CONSUMPTION 2014
1,000 Metric Tons
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
VAM
Anhydride
Ethyl Acetate
Butyl/OtherAcetates
PTA
All Others
AA Utilisation
% Utilisation
2014 = 12.9 Million Metric TonsSource: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ACETIC ACID CONSUMPTION GROWTH
APIC 2015
KEY ACETIC ACID TRADE ROUTES 2014
515
569
40
42
5
140
5
312
60
1,000 Metric Tons
44
29
34
24
123
11
11
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Company Country Change Year(ktpa)
Celanese USA 150 2012
Anhui Huayi Coal Chemical China 500 2012
Henan Yima Gas Co China 200 2013
China Great Wall Energy Co China 300 2014
Henan Longyu Coal Chemical China 400 2014
YARACO 2 China 650 2016
Other Projects US, India, etc ~500 2014-17
Reliance India 790 2017-18
BP-Oman Oil Co. Oman 1000 2019-20
APIC 2015
WORLD ACETIC ACID CAPACITY ADDITIONS
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
• VAM prices increased rapidly in late Q1/Q2 2014 due to a combination of factors – production outages globally, several ‘force majeure’ declarations in the US Gulf, high feedstock costs and logistics/shipping delays. Spot market prices doubled over a period of 4-6 weeks.
• At one point, all four major US Gulf VAM producers were either on ‘force majeure’ or sales allocation during Q2. ‘Force majeure’ declarations remained in place until December as producers carried out further maintenance during Q3/Q4.
• Faced with record high prices and unsure about security of supply, consumers turned to alternative sources for VAM volumes in Q2. Large volumes of VAM were shipped from Singapore, Taiwan and China.
• Chinese VAM producers looked for export opportunities despite concerns expressed by western consumers about product quality. However, as market supplies improved in Q4, spot prices plummeted and Chinese producers cut production rates to avoid end-year inventory builds.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
ACETIC ACID • VINYL ACETATE MONOMER2014 – A Year of Contrasts
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
$/ton
USGExport
EU Spotddp
ChinaImport
APIC 2015
VINYL ACETATE MONOMER SPOT PRICES2011 - 2015
NE AsiaImport cfr
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Total =5.8 Million Metric Tons
25%
7%
22%
8%
5%
1%
32%
23%
17%
17%8%
3%
1%
31%
Total =5.8 Million Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem N & S America
W Europe
NE Asia
S & SE Asia
ME & Africa
E Europe
China
Production Consumption
APIC 2015
WORLD VINYL ACETATE SUPPLY & DEMANDBY REGION 2014
PVAc43%
PVOH40%
EVA9%
Others8%
Total = 5.8 Million Metric Tons
APIC 2015
WORLD VAM CONSUMPTION 2014
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
1,000 Metric Tons
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PVAc
PVOH
Others
AA Utilisation
% Utilisation
2014 = 5.8 Million Metric TonsSource: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD VAM CONSUMPTION GROWTH
APIC 2015
KEY VAM TRADE ROUTES 2014
52
15183
150
17 175
1,000 Metric Tons
24
243
4
80
40113
102
15
22 22
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Company Country Change Year(ktpa)
Inner Mongolia Shuangxin China 200 2011
Sichuan Vinylon Works China 300 2011
Inner Mongolia Mengwei China 200 2011
Shaanxi Yanchang Group China 300 2013
Changdai Singapore 350 2013
China Great Wall Chemical China 450 2013
Various US, Europe ~150 2015-16
Reliance Industries India 300 2018-19
APIC 2015
WORLD VAM CAPACITY ADDITIONS
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
China74%
Taiwan6%
Japan6%
Singapore5%
South Korea4%
Malaysia4%
India1%
China Total = 10 Million Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
ASIAN ACETIC ACID PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2014
Total = 5.38 Million Metric Tons
53%
2%12%
4%
18%
11%
25%
13%
17%7%
25%
13%
VAM
Anhydride
Ethyl Acetate
Butyl Acetate
PTA
Others
Total = 3.18 Million Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
NE & SE Asia China
APIC 2015
ACETIC ACID DEMAND NE & SE ASIA vs CHINA 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
1,000 Metric Tons
Excluding China
APIC 2015
ASIAN ACETIC ACID CONSUMPTIONBY COUNTRY 2014
China61%
Taiwan12%
Japan13%
Singapore10%
South Korea4%
China Total = 3.4 Million Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
ASIAN VAM PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2014
Total = 1.79 Million Metric Tons
31%
44%
14%
11%
30%
62%
4%4%
PVAc
PVOH
EVA
Others
Total = 1.45 Million Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
NE & SE Asia China
APIC 2015
VAM DEMAND NE & SE ASIA vs CHINA 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
1,000 Metric Tons
Excluding China
APIC 2015
ASIAN VAM CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY 2014
APIC 2015
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• World acetic acid consumption growth will average 4.0%-4.5% per annum through 2020 with China, Southeast Asia and North America setting the pace. VAM consumption growth will average 3.5%-4.0% per annum through 2020.
• Acetic acid utilisation rates globally are forecast to remain between 68%-70% during the period of 2014-2020 based on current capacity figures. Improved business conditions and further rationalisation could impact operating rates moving forward.
• Acetic acid/VAM prices remain more sensitive to regional supply/demand problems, rather than changes in feedstock prices, but feedstock volatility is a threat throughout the value chain.
• China has emerged as an important exporter of acetic acid, ethyl acetate and VAM, and will continue to export large volumes.
• Currency depreciation and exchange rate fluctuations remain troubling for major acetyls trade partners, producers.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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