aceges
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Presentation of the ACEGES decision-support toolTRANSCRIPT
The ACEGES laboratory for energy policy: Exploring the production of conventional oil
Dr. Vlasios VOUDOURISCentre for International Business & Sustainability
The ACEGES Project
•At what rate over time can oil (and gas) from geographically dispersed nations be supplied to the marketplace?
•How will prices affect the ratio of technically recoverable/economically extractable oil (and gas) reserves?
•What are the dynamics of spot oil prices, oil futures and oil supply shocks?
•What peak oil and gas mean for geopolitics and investment?
•What peak oil and gas mean for alternative transport fuels and electricity?
WHY?
The ACEGES Project
•At what rate over time can oil (and gas) from geographically dispersed nations be supplied to the marketplace?
Run simulations to:
• Assess the sensitivity of the UK’s Energy Supply•Develop a sustainable trading strategy for the UK’s Energy Supply System•Assess diversification of energy sources and energy security• Assess spare production capacity for fossil fuels (particularly oil and gas)•Assess local patterns of supply and demand can generate price spikes within price spikes
Key Policy Issue:Electricity generation and (land, air and sea) transport fuels
Energy Security
?Dr. Vlasios VOUDOURIS
[email protected] for International Business & Sustainability
Computational Experiments
Energy Policy by means of controlled computational experiments
Computational ExperimentsThe ACEGES decision-support tool
Energy Policy by means of controlled computational experiments
Computational ExperimentsThe ACEGES decision-support tool
www.aceges.org
The ACEGES model
The ACEGES model
The ACEGES tool
ACEGES
What about the current events in MENA?The “Berlin Wall” of MENA!
"This is a powderkeg that could go up at any moment"
The ACEGES toolfrom Turmoil to Tsunami as a threat to oil and gas output
What about the current events in MENA?”… what about wider implications? ”
“Unrest in MENA highlights the possibility of successful anti- regime protests occurring in apparently unlikely environments.”Economist Intelligence Unit, 10 February 2011
“No Egyptian leader will make Mubarak’s mistake again, which does not portend well for Washington’s position in the Middle East.... The United States should greatly lower its expectations of what is possible in the post-Mubarak era and come to terms with the end of the strategic relationship.”Steven A Cook, Council on Foreign Relations, 2 February 2011
Looking north-east of MENA, namely FSU
Looking south of MENA, namely Sub-Saharan Africa
Today’s Tiananmen is not TahrirDavid Pilling, Financial Times, 17 February 2011
The next Turkey or the next Pakistan?Gideon Rachman, Financial Times, 15 February 2011
The ACEGES tool
Scenarios as a non-mechanistic mental process
Key Uncertainties
Key uncertainties
What type of Models?
•Resource-Constrained Models (RCM)•Curve Fitting (e.g., Hubbert Curve)•Mechanistic: ‘Demand-constrained’ & ‘Geology-constrained’ phases
•Econometric Models (EconM)•How socioeconomic variables affects oil production
RCM are used for long-term energy scenarios
EconM are used for short-term energy scenarios
Resource-constrained Models:Curve Fitting
Resource-constrained Models:Curve Fitting
Resource-constrained Models:Curve Fitting
Resource-constrained Models:Mechanistic
•Assume a EUR - Estimated Ultimate Recovery•Assume a min{(R/P)}•Assume a Production curve until the min{(R/P)}•Then:
•Recalculate (R/P). If (R/P)> min{(R/P)}, use min{(R/P)}
RCM - Results…discrete scenarios
RCM - Results…discrete scenarios
Source: World Energy Outlook (2010)
RCM - Results…discrete scenarios
Model
Uncertainties
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
The ACEGES results…continuous scenarios
The ACEGES results
=
2002
2003 2004 2005 2006
ACEGE Results…continuous scenarios
Model
Uncertainties
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
The ACEGES Results: US
The ACEGES Results
The ACEGES and …the GAMLSS framework
The ACEGES and …the GAMLSS framework
We use the SHASH (Sihn- Arcsihn) distribution developed in Jones and Persey (2009) of the simulated world oil production, p.
μ represents the median σ represents the scale ν controls the left hand tail of the world oil production τ controls the right hand tail of the world oil production
NOTE: the two tails of the distribution are modeled separately
The ACEGES and …the GAMLSS framework
The ACEGES results… continuous scenarios
positively skewed symmetric positively skewed symmetric
platykurtic
Future Directions
ACEGES = A full-scale model of the Global Energy System
UK Energy Day
Thank you
Dr. Vlasios [email protected]
Centre for International Business & Sustainability
Innovations are dominated by the tyranny of the accidental rather than the tyranny of the collective
We need to rethink the balance between home-grown energy and energy imports to address:•Energy Resilience and Security•Climate Change•Sustainable growth