acedp csiro and wf hc and sy
TRANSCRIPT
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Overview: CIRO and Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
ACEDP Australia-China Roundtable Dr Bill Young, Director, Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship
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2 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future
6500+ staff over 55 locations
CSIRO today: a snapshot
160+ active licences of CSIRO innovation
20+ spin-off companies in six years
Ranked in top 1% in 14 research fields
One of the largest & most diverse in the world
Australia’s national science agency
Building national prosperity and wellbeing
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CSIRO operates primarily in the $32bn Australian R&D market
• 3
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4 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future
Harnessing One-CSIRO
Delivering on National Challenges
Exploring New Horizons
Conducting Science with Impact
Building our People and Science Excellence
Our strategy – growing our impact
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CSIRO International Strategy 2007-2011 Page 5
CSIRO international engagement 2008-09
• >200 Publications • 50-200 Publications • 10-50 Publications • <10 Publications • No Publications
•
• USA (1) - 268
• NZ (2) - 117
• China (3) - 88
• France (4) - 56
• UK (5) - 54
• Japan (6) - 49
• India (7) - 43
• Hong Kong (8) - 39
• Canada (9) - 38
• Malaysia (10) - 33
• >200 Collaborative activities • 50-200 Collaborative activities
• 10-50 Collaborative activities
• Co-authored scientific publications:
• Other collaborative activities (top 10 countries):
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6 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future
Future Manufacturing
Light Metals
Minerals Down Under
Sustainable Agriculture
Water for a Healthy Country
Preventative Health
Wealth from Oceans
Climate Adaptation
Food Futures
Energy Transformed
National Research Flagships
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Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
Establish research investments that: • Address a significant unmet need with an adoption partner • Are large, to accommodate a research portfolio approach • Are long-lived, to provide a secure platform that allows for new
ideas to be developed • Build new partnerships with other research institutions to
provide necessary skills
Water for a Healthy Country To provide water managers with options that meet water needs to 2030, creating $1 billion per annum of net economic benefit, while maintaining or improving the condition of aquatic ecosystems
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To provide Australia with solutions for water resource management, creating economic gains of $3 billion per annum by 2030, while protecting or restoring our major water ecosystems
Integrated Water Information Systems
Healthy Water Ecosystems Urban Water Regional Water
Stream 1 Integrated Water Systems
Analysis
Stream 2 Recycling and Diversified Supply
Stream 3 Advanced Treatment
Stream 1 Environmental Water
Stream 2 Catchment and Aquatic Health
Stream 1 Water Informatics
Stream 1 Water in a Changing Climate
Stream 4 Water in Northern Australia
Stream 2 Irrigation, Economics and
Environment
Stream 4 Urban Water Environments
Stream 3 Environmental Contaminants
Stream 2 Water Resources Assessment
and Accounting
Stream 3 Water Forecasting and Prediction
Stream 3 Groundwater Characterisation
and Management
Stream 5 River System Modelling
Stream 5 Distributed Systems
Stream 6 Sustainable Asset Management
Stream 7 Intelligent Networks
Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
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The largest water research venture in Australia
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CSIRO Sustainable Yields Projects
Murray-Darling Basin Northern Australia South-West Western Australia Tasmania
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• CSIRO South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project – Overview
Annual rainfall and inflow into Perth dams Runoff is affected by climate and other factors
• 16% reduction
• 55% reduction
• Historical
• Recent
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The data for SWWA do not include the 10-15% reduction in rainfall and 55% reduction in runoff that occurred between 1975 and 2008
Projected changes in rainfall and runoff by 2030 in four SY regions
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MDBSY – Climate scenarios
• 15 GCMs (IPCC AR4), 3 global warming levels (high, medium, low)
• 45 variants for climate assessment and rainfall-runoff modelling • For each region, select 3 based on modelled mean annual
runoff • 2nd wettest for high warming • 2nd driest for high warming • Median for medium warming
• Uncertainty in 2030 hydrology is dominated by differences amongst GCMs not differences between warming levels
• Explore water availability, flow regime and water sharing impacts of these 3 variants
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Example – Murray region
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River model linkages
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Surface water availability across the MDB
Current surface water availability
Median climate change impact on future water availability
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Impact of climate change on water availability
Median impact is an 11 percent reduction in water availability (~2500 GL/year)
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Impact sharing for median 2030 climate
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Maj
or fl
oodp
lain
wet
land
s
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Changes in average period between floods
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Changes in maximum period between floods
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Implications for Lower Lakes
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lake
Lev
el (m
AH
D)
Without-development
Current
Without-development (Cmid)
Current (Cmid)
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Implications for Lower Lakes
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Implications for water resource management and environmental flows
• Regional CC projections remain uncertain meaning water resource planning must consider multiple plausible futures in a risk framework.
• Water resource development has doubled the average period between flooding for many wetlands; the additional impact on average flood intervals of even moderate CC could lead to major ecological change.
• Given current impacts even moderate CC would mean maximum periods between floods would be 4x the natural values for many wetlands and ~10x the natural values for some wetlands.
• Under moderate CC the % of months in which the LL are below MSL would double, and would see LL levels drop twice as far below MSL than would otherwise be the case.
• CC means achieving ecological sustainability will require greater reductions in water use in the MDB than would otherwise be the case.