accord conference banking: our strategy, politics and regulation to 2015
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ACCORD CONFERENCE Banking: Our Strategy, Politics and Regulation to 2015. Dominic Morris 26 APRIL 2012. INTRODUCTION. How hard to get the message across? Where do you rank banks vs big pharmaceuticals, oil, junk food, alcohol, estate agents, tobacco industry? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ACCORD CONFERENCEBanking: Our Strategy, Politics and Regulation to 2015
Dominic Morris26 APRIL 2012
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INTRODUCTION
How hard to get the message across? Where do you rank banks vs big pharmaceuticals, oil, junk food, alcohol, estate agents, tobacco industry?
Very few signs of improvement in 2011 (see next slide)
Several banks went backwards
Variance in brands. But Lloyds Banking Group closing the ‘negative gap’ (S 09 -22% W 11 -8%)
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FAVOURABILITY – All MPs
• Nationwide are clear leaders with HSBC and Barclays in second place• Favourability towards Lloyds TSB and LBG have increased, but MPs are now
less favourable towards Halifax
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WHY?
Lending (not)
Bonuses: US attitudes to Capitalism and Scandinavian Puritanism.
Misselling
General public beginning to feel the pain
Characteristics of Balance Sheet Recessions
All banks regarded the same i-banks tarnish retail/commercial (some allowance for mutuals) Need to differentiate
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THE TIDE OF REGULATIONChange, Change, Change…
Source: Lloyds Banking Group data
>80 Consultationsin 2003
300+ Consultationsin 2011
400+ expected in 2012
Run rate c.420 consultations in 2012
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REFORM IS NECESSARY BUT REFORMERS HAVE INCONSISTENT GOALS
Crisis had many causes. But search for a ‘single club’ solution
Tensions between stability and growth agenda Higher capital/liquidity = less lending capacity
Unintended consequences Bail-in + depositor preference = reduction in senior unsecured funding = higher
cost of money market funds = dearer mortgages/loans Ring fencing may increase corporate reliance on foreign banks Solvency II rules could knacker UK annuities market
Inconsistent rules Vickers vs. Volcker
But combination of capital/liquidity, ‘living wills’, governance/ incentive changes, ring-fencing and better micro/macro-prudential regulation will lead to safer banking system
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THE ICB AND AFTERMATH
Higher capital and liquidity
Ring-fencing: the “Big Idea”
Depositor preference
Switching/transparency for competition
No change to Verde
LBG least impacted of major UK banks (though not negligible)
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HOW MUCH DOES IT MATTER? WHAT ARE WE DOING ABOUT IT
Total reform package costs One-off implementations £1-2bn for LBG Ongoing costs + £500m-£1bn p.a. Capital/liquidity holding costs +40-70% = Lower ROE
Running harder to stand still
Making a Difference
Some wins (e.g. FSCS = £500m+ cost avoided for LBG)
But banks ‘will only regain respect when (a) taxpayer stake sold (b) balance sheet recession ends = regain our ‘licence to operate’
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WHAT WILL CHANGE IN POLITICAL LANDSCAPETO 2015?
“It’s (still) the economy, stupid”
Coalition friction 2013
Continued political fragmentation (Con/Lab share of vote 88% 1966, 75% 1979, 65% 2010)
Restructuring of the UK? (Scotland Referendum 2014)
Increased power of Local Government/elected Mayors
Will Labour find its vision (beyond ‘Not the Coalition’)
2015 outcome may be inconclusive
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HOW WILL OUR STRATEGY HELP?Start with what’s wrong
UK retail banking model high cost base
Supported by fat revenues from often complex, opaque products with high margins
Repeated compliance problems/misselling scandals
= Unsustainable - new model needed
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THE NEW MODEL
Low cost, efficient
Deliver with scale (large branch networks; investments in technology)
Multibrand (the importance of Halifax but also guerrilla brands like BM)
Simpler/transparent products
Remove misselling risk/multi-billion £ provisions
Lower margin but sustainable and profitable for long-term
= Happier customers= Repay the taxpayers’ investment
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CONCLUSION
Cost reduction not an end in itself
But an essential foundation for new, ethical and sustainable model
LBG possibly only major bank in UK that can do this
Stable, safe, profitable, responsible bank for industry, individuals, communities by 2015
That’s all folks
Questions?