accidents in the energy sector: comparison of damage...

Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI HS40/MANHAZ/20-22 Octoberl 2004

Accidents in the Energy Sector:Comparison of Damage Indicators and External Costs

StefanStefan HirschbergHirschbergPaul Scherrer InstitutPaul Scherrer Institut

SwitzerlandSwitzerlandwith contributions by P. Burgherr with contributions by P. Burgherr

Workshop on Approaches to Comparative Risk AssessmentWarsaw, Poland, 20-22 October 2004


• Background• Approach• PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD)

• Examples of evaluations for specific energy chains• Comparison of energy chains

- Aggregated damage rates- Frequency-consequence curves- Damage costs and external costs

• Conclusions

ContentContent


Hirschberg S., Spiekerman G., Dones R. (1998) Severe accidents in the energy sector. First edition, PSI Report No. 98-16, Paul Scherrer Institute, Wuerenlingenand Villigen, Switzerland, 1998.

Hirschberg S., Burgherr P., Spiekerman G., Dones R. (2004) Severe accidents in the energy sector: comparative perspective. Journal of Hazardous Materials 111 (2004) 57-65.

Hirschberg S., Burgherr P., Spiekerman G., Vitazek J., Cazzoli E., Cheng L. (2003) Comparative assessment of severe accidents in the Chinese electricity sector. PSI Report No. 03-04, Paul Scherrer Institute, Wuerenlingen and Villigen, Switzerland, 2003.

Hirschberg S., Burgherr P., Spiekerman G., Vitazek J., Cazzoli E., Cheng L. (2003) Assessment of severe accident risks. In: Eliasson B., Lee YY. (eds) Integrated assessment of sustainable energy systems in China. The China Energy Technology Program. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, 2003, pp 587-660.

Main LiteratureMain Literature


Hunt A., Ortiz R. and Markandya A. (2004), External costs from severe accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains: Valuation of relevant end-points. In: Spitzer C., Schmocker U. and Dang V. N. (eds) Proceedings of International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM) 7 - European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) '04, Berlin, Germany. Springer pp 2308-2313.

Hirschberg S., Burgherr P. and Hunt A. (2004), Accident risks in the energy sector: Comparison of damage indicators and external costs. In: Spitzer C., Schmocker U. and Dang V. N. (eds) Proceedings of International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM) 7 - European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) '04, Berlin, Germany. Springer, pp 2314-2319.

Burgherr P. and Hirschberg S. (2004) Severe accidents in fossil energy chains: Individual chain results and aggregated evaluations”, by, Burgherr P. and Hirschberg S. (2004). In: Spitzer C., Schmocker U. and Dang V. N. (eds) Proceedings of International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM) 7 - European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) '04, Berlin, Germany. Springer pp 2320-2325.



Burgherr P., Hirschberg S., Hunt A. and Ortiz R. A. (2004) NewExt Project Work Package 5: External costs from major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains. Report prepared for the European Commission within Project NewExt on New Elements for the Assessment of External Costs from Energy Technologies, Paul Scherrer Institute and University of Bath, to be published 2005.

Burgherr P., Hirschberg S., Hunt A. and Ortiz R. A. Accidents in the Energy Sector:Damage Indicators and External Costs. PSI Report, Paul Scherrer Institute, Wuerenlingen and Villigen, Switzerland, to be published 2005.



• Basis and context of the work:PSI‘s work on accidents for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (1994-1998)Severe accident project in the China Energy Technology Program (1999-2003)EC DG research project on New Elements for the Assessment of External Costs from Energy Technologies (NewExt) (2000-2004)

• New analysis of accident risks, primarily based on extensions of PSI‘s ENSAD database:Use of inputs from a variety of additional commercial and non-commercial data sourcesTime period covered has been extended to reflect the historical experience until year 2000Also small accidents addressed though focus on severe onesInclusion of previously restricted information on accidents in China

• Externality assessment based on valuation of the relevant end-points

BackgroundBackground


• Accounting for contributions from all stages of fuel cycles.

• Definition of a severe accident that could be consistently applied to various energy chains.

• The comparison of different energy chains is based on normalized indicators combining consequences (e.g. fatalities) and product (GWeyr).

• Econometric valuation of severe accidents.

Basic approachBasic approach


NumberNumber of of fatalitiesfatalities in in severe accidentssevere accidentsby oil chain stepby oil chain step (1969(1969--2000)2000)

3% 6%

34%

2%

54%

1%

Exploration Extraction

Transport to Refinery Refinery

Regional Distribution HeatingSource: Burgherr et al., 2004


Severe accident definitionSevere accident definition(as used in ENSAD)(as used in ENSAD)

One or several of the following consequences:

• At least 5 fatalities

• At least 10 injured

• At least 200 evacuees

• Extensive ban on consumption of food

• Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10'000 tonnes

• Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area ofat least 25 km2

• Economic loss of at least 5 million USD


• Evaluation of historical accident data for fossil energy chains (coal, oil and gas), hydropower and nuclear.

• Application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the nuclear chain and PSA concept for hydro.

• Potential problems and limitations:

- Incomplete and inhomogeneous data

- Difficulties to cover a wide range of consequences in a consistent manner

- Risk perception/aversion aspects not explicitly addressed

Basic approach (Basic approach (contcont..))


Code Name Country of Origin

Time Geographical Area

Type of Accidents Covered

MHIDAS UK 1900-2000 Worldwide Industrial Accidents HSELINE/LLP UK 1920-2000 Worldwide Accidents related to

Health and Safety at Work

PC-FACTS Netherlands 1920-2000 Worldwide Industrial Accidents OFDA/

EM-DAT USA 1900-2000 Worldwide Man-made and Natural

Catastrophes SIGMA

Swiss Re Switzerland 1969-2000 Worldwide Man-made and Natural

Catastrophes WOAD Norway 1970-1998 Worldwide Offshore ITOPF UK 1970-2000 Worldwide Tanker oil spills ICOLD France 1850-2000 Worldwide Dam Accidents BHDF Austria 2500 b.c-2000 Worldwide Dam Accidents CCIY China 1994-2000 China Coal Chain Accidents RfF USA 1945-1991 Worldwide Man-made and Natural

Catastrophes MARS European

Community 1980-1991 Europe Industrial Accidents

Major accident databases used by ENSADMajor accident databases used by ENSAD


• Major commercial and non-commercial accident databases

• Journals, periodicals and books on specific energy systems

• Technical reports issued by manufacturing and insurance companies, or by research institutes

• National and international newspapers

• Other publications, e.g. Conference Proceedings, Encyclopaedias, Annual Reports etc.

• Plant operators

• Consular authorities

• International organisations (UN, OECD, European Community, etc.)

• Organisations providing emergency services (Red Cross, UN, etc.)

• Governmental organisations having an internal reporting system, such as police, fire brigades, labour and environmental inspectorates

The most important information sources forPSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

35019

69

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts

>100 fatalities51 to 100 fatalities21 to 50 fatalities5 to 20 fatalities

Data fromCCIY available

EnergyEnergy--related accidents for related accidents for differentdifferent gravity indicesgravity indices

Source: Burgherr et al., 2004


EnergyEnergy--related accidents for four gravity indicesrelated accidents for four gravity indices

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

600019

69

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f fat

aliti

es

>100 fatalities51 to 100 fatalities21 to 50 fatalities5 to 20 fatalities

Data fromCCIY available



• 18'400 accidents, of which- 70.3% man-made- 88.7% in the period 1969-2000

• 6404 energy-related accidents, corresponding to:- 34.8% of all accidents- 49.5% of man-made accidents

• Among the energy-related accidents 3117 (48.7%) are severe, of which 2078 have 5 or more fatalities

• 75% of all energy-related severe accidents with at least 5 fatalities occurred in non-OECD countries (China alone 54%)

• Much improved coverage and balance between reporting levelsfor individual countries

PSI'sPSI's ENSAD and its meritsENSAD and its merits


A B C D E F G

Man-made non-energy-relatedMan-made energy-related

Man-madeNatural

All accidents

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts

Overview of accidents by typeOverview of accidents by type

A: No consequence thresholdB: C or D or E or F or GC: at least 5 fatalitiesD: at least 10 injuredE: at least 200 evacueesF: more than 10'000 tonnes of hydrocarbons releasedG: at least 5 Mio USD (2000) of economic loss



Natural disastersNatural disasters vs. manvs. man--made accidentsmade accidents

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

35019

6919

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

00

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts

Natural Disasters Man-made, Non-energy-related Man-made, Energy-related

Coal Accidents China:1995: 2401997: 268



100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f fat

aliti

es

Natural disasters Man-made, non-energy-related Man-made, energy-related

Hydro:Banqiao/Shimantan26'000 fatalities

Natural disasters vs. manNatural disasters vs. man--made accidentsmade accidents



(a) First line: Coal non-OECD w/o China; second line: Coal China (b) Banqiao and Shimantan dam failures together caused 26‘000 fatalities(c) Latent fatalities treated separately

29'924 (b)

1000141Hydro

-

515

229

1141

234

Fatalities

-

19

24

58

11

Accidents

EU-15

-

59

80

165

75

Accidents

OECD

-

1905

978

3789

2259

Fatalities FatalitiesAccidentsEnergy chain

31 (c)1Nuclear

LPG

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

100045

201646

16'494232

483118'017(a)

1021044 (a)

Non-OECD

Severe accidents with at least 5 Severe accidents with at least 5 immediate immediate fatalitiesfatalities



Accidents by continent Accidents by continent (>= 5 (>= 5 fatalitiesfatalities))

50.5

49.4

16.0 56.7

20.8

18.7

11.7

18.8

18.9

4.5

7.7

12.2

10.9

2.2

0.9

0.3

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Natural Disasters

Non-Energy-Related

Energy-Related

Asia America Africa Europe Oceania

Coal Chain China

Man

-Mad

e



0

100

200

300

400

500

60019

69

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

No

of F

atal

ities

OECD non-OECD w/o China

Number of fatalities:OECD: 2259 (EU15: 234)non-OECD w/o China: 4831

Kozlu (TUR): 272 fat.Barotean(MEX): 180 fat.

Bulwayo (ZWE): 434 fat.

Dbanbad (Ind): 372 fat.

NA (IND):300 fat.

Cuenca (ECU): 200 fat.

Coal chain Coal chain –– number of fatalities in severe accidentsnumber of fatalities in severe accidentsOECD vs. nonOECD vs. non--OECD w/o ChinaOECD w/o China

Number of fatalities:OECD: 2259 (EU15: 234)Non-OECD w/o China: 4831China: 18‘017 (94-99: 11‘334)



Coal Coal –– Severe vs Smaller AccidentsSevere vs Smaller Accidents

Source: Hirschberg et al., 2003


Causes of severe coal accidentsCauses of severe coal accidents

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GasExplosion

Coal DustExplosion

ExplosionNFS

Fire Fall of Roof TransportAccident

WaterHazard

Accident

NA

Shar

e (%

)

OECD non-OECD China



Oil Chain Oil Chain –– numbernumber of of severe accidentssevere accidentsOECD vs. nonOECD vs. non--OECDOECD

0

5

10

15

20

2519

69

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts

OECD non-OECD

Number of accidents:OECD: 165 (EU15: 58)non-OECD: 234



Oil chain Oil chain –– number of fatalities in severe accidentsnumber of fatalities in severe accidents

1

10

100

1000

1000019

69

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f fat

alitie

s

OECD non-OECD

Number of fatalities:OECD: 3789 (EU15: 1141)non-OECD: 16494

Seoul (KOR): 577 fat.

Guadalajara (MEX): 252 fat.

off coast Mindoro (PHL): 4375 fat.

Salang Pass (AFG): 2700 fat.

Warri (NIG): 900 fat.

Dronka (EGY): 580 fat.



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Road Rail Aircraft Pipeline Marine InlandWaterways

At FixedFacility

Num

ber o

f eve

nts

Transport to RefineryRegional Distribution

Transport modes involved in severe oil accidentsTransport modes involved in severe oil accidents



• 135 offshore and 40 onshore oil spills >10’000 tonnes between 1969 and 2000.

• The biggest spill ever occurred during Gulf War II in 1991 when between 768’000 and 1’770’000 tonnes spilled from oil terminals and tankers.

• The second biggest spill occurred over a ten-month period (June 1979 - February 1980) when 480’000 tonnes spilled at the Ixtoc I well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.

• In comparison, the largest tanker spill had a size of about 290’000 tonnes (Sea Empress / Aegean Captain; 1979)

Oil spills factsOil spills facts


Oil spills facts (1969Oil spills facts (1969--2000) cont.2000) cont.

• Overall, few very large spills were responsible for a high percentage of the total oil spilled in tanker accidents in the period 1969-2000.

• But the magnitude of the impact is primarily depending on distance to the coast, weather and current conditions, whereas the amount and type of oil spilled may often be of secondary importance.

• For example, the Exxon Valdez accident (Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA) in 1989 was relatively small with 37’000 tonnes oil lost, but it occurred close to the coastline and wind current moved the oil slick to the beaches leading to an ecological disaster.


Shipname Year Location Distance from coast (km)

Oil spilled (t)

Atlantic Empress/ Aegean Captain

1979 off Trinidad/Tobago and Barbados

32 450

287’000

ABT Summer 1991 off Angola 1’287 260’000

Castillo de Bellver 1983 off Table Bay, South Africa 64 255’500

Amoco Cadiz 1978 off Brittany, France 0.5-1 228’000

Haven 1991 Genoa, Italy in port 144’000

Odyssey 1988 NE of Saint John's, New-foundland

1175 137’600

Sea Star 1972 Gulf of Oman N.A. 127’800

Irenes Serenade 1980 Pylos, Navarino Bay, Greece N.A. 118’000

Independenta 1979 Bosphorus strait near Istanbul, Turkey

0.8 (from Hydarpasa port)

109’000

Texaco Denmark 1971 North Sea N.A. 106’300

Exxon Valdez 1989 Prince William Sound, Alaska near shore 37’000

Largest tankerLargest tanker spillsspills (1969 (1969 –– 2000)2000)


Oil Spills >10‘000 Oil Spills >10‘000 tonnestonnes (1969 (1969 –– 2000)2000)

0

200'000

400'000

600'000

800'000

1'000'000

1'200'000

1'400'000

1'600'00019

69

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Oil

spill

ed in

tonn

es

Offshore Onshore Reihe5

Gulf War II: 1'472'000 t

Ixtoc-1: 480'000 tAtlantic Empress/Aegan Captain: 287'000 t

Colombo, StorageDepot: 300'000 t

Vergana Valley,Oil Well: 281'600 t

Kharyaga-UsinskPipeline: 272'800 tNowruz 4 Platform:

266'700 tCastillo de Bellver:255'500 t

ABT Summer:260'000 t

Amoco Cadiz:228'000 t

w/o Gulf War



Natural Natural gas gas chainchain –– numbernumber of of severe accidentssevere accidentsOECD vs. nonOECD vs. non--OECDOECD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts

OECD non-OECD

Number of accidents:OECD: 80 (EU15: 24)non-OECD: 45



Natural Natural gas gas chainchain –– numbernumber of of fatalitiesfatalities in in severe accidentssevere accidentsOECD vs. nonOECD vs. non--OECDOECD

0

50

100

150

200

250

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f fat

aliti

es

OECD non-OECD

Taegu (KOR): 109 fat.

Osaka (JPN): 92 fat. Tbilissi (GEO): 100 fat.Pacific Ocean: 93 fat.

Tejerias (VEN): 80 fat.Shenzen (CHN): 70 fat.Baohe (CHN): 70 fat.




LPG LPG chainchain –– numbernumber of of fatalitiesfatalities in in severe accidentssevere accidentsOECD vs. nonOECD vs. non--OECDOECD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70019

69

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Num

ber o

f fat

aliti

es

OECD non-OECD

Seoul (KOR): 169 fat.

Asha-Ufa (RUS): 600 fat.

Nile River /EGY):317 fat.

Los Alfaques (ESP): 216 fat.

Mexico City (MEX): 498 fat.




Activities causing severe accidentsActivities causing severe accidentsin the natural gas chainin the natural gas chain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Tr

ansp

ort/P

ipel

ine

Tran

spor

t/Rai

l

Proc

ess

Stor

age

Tran

sfer

Dom

/com N

A

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts (%

)



Shares of severe accident fatalities according to chain stagesShares of severe accident fatalities according to chain stages



Number of severe accidents and aggregated rates (1969Number of severe accidents and aggregated rates (1969--2000)2000)

0.04800.04800.0061 / 31 Nuclear

10.2851.349

0.00310.2851.349

0.0034.2650.561

11 / 29'93810 / 3938

Hydro(2)

0.0960.0910.1110.0800.093125 / 1978Natural Gas

0.5020.3920.8970.1350.436397 / 20'283Oil

1.5760.589

0.1851.6050.597

0.1570.8760.690

1221 / 25'107177 / 7090

Coal(1)

Non-OECD

OECDNon-OECD

OECDWorldwide

With allocationNo allocationNumber of severe accidents world-wide with fatalities# accidents / # fatalities

Number of immediate fatalities per GWeyrEnergy Chain

(1) Second line: China excluded(2) Second line: Banqiao/Shimantan dam accident excluded



Severe accident indicators for OECD and nonSevere accident indicators for OECD and non--OECD OECD ccountriesountries((withoutwithout allocation, 1969allocation, 1969--2000)2000)

1.E-3

1.E-2

1.E-1

1.E+0

1.E+1

1.E+2

1.E+3O

ECD

EU15

non-

OEC

D w

/oC

hina

non-

OEC

D w

ithC

hina C

hina

Chi

na 1

994-

1999

OEC

D

EU15

non-

OEC

D

OEC

D

EU15

non-

OEC

D

OEC

D

EU15

non-

OEC

D

OEC

D

EU15

non-

OEC

D

non-

OEC

D w

/oB

anqi

ao/S

him

anta

nO

ECD

EU15

non-

OEC

D

Coal Oil Natural Gas LPG Hydro Nuclear

Affe

cted

peo

ple

/ GW

eyr Fatalities Injured Evacuees



Severe accident indicators for OECD and nonSevere accident indicators for OECD and non--OECD CountriesOECD Countries(with allocation, 1969(with allocation, 1969--2000)2000)



FrequencyFrequency--consequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsconsequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsOECD, OECD, withoutwithout allocation, 1969allocation, 1969--20002000

1.E-7

1.E-6

1.E-5

1.E-4

1.E-3

1.E-2

1.E-1

1.E+0

1 10 100 1000 10000Fatalities, X

Freq

uenc

y of

eve

nts

caus

ing

X or

mor

e fa

talit

ies

per G

Wey

r

Nuclear (PSA,latent fatalities)

Hydro

Coal

OilNatural Gas

LPG



FrequencyFrequency--consequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsconsequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsnonnon--OECD, OECD, withoutwithout allocation, 1969allocation, 1969--20002000

1.E-7

1.E-6

1.E-5

1.E-4

1.E-3

1.E-2

1.E-1

1.E+0

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000Fatalities, X

Freq

uenc

y of

eve

nts

caus

ing

X or

mor

e fa

talit

ies

per G

Wey

r

Nuclear (Chernobyl,latent fatalities)

Hydro

Coal w/o ChinaOil

Natural Gas

LPG

Coal China

Nuclear (Chernobyl,immediate fatalities)



FrequencyFrequency--consequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsconsequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsOECD, with allocation, 1969OECD, with allocation, 1969--20002000

1.E-7

1.E-6

1.E-5

1.E-4

1.E-3

1.E-2

1.E-1

1.E+0

1 10 100 1000 10000Fatalities, X

Freq

uenc

y of

eve

nts

caus

ing

X or

mor

e fa

talit

ies

per G

Wey

r

Hydro

Coal Oil

Natural Gas

LPG

Nuclear (PSA,latent fatalities)



FrequencyFrequency--consequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsconsequence curves for severe accidents in various energy chainsnonnon--OECD, with allocation, 1969OECD, with allocation, 1969--20002000

1.E-7

1.E-6

1.E-5

1.E-4

1.E-3

1.E-2

1.E-1

1.E+0

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000Fatalities, X

Freq

uenc

y of

eve

nts

caus

ing

X or

mor

e fa

talit

ies

per G

Wey

r

Nuclear (Chernobyl,latent fatalities)

Hydro

Coal w/o ChinaOil

Natural Gas

LPG

Coal China

Nuclear (Chernobyl,immediate fatalities)



FrequencyFrequency--consequence Curvesconsequence CurvesEnergy Energy Chain Chain ComparisonsComparisons

Source: Hirschberg et al., 2003


Damage costs and external costs of nonDamage costs and external costs of non--nuclear accidentsnuclear accidentsUnderlying monetary values and parametersUnderlying monetary values and parameters

Monetary values € (2002)Mortality valuation: Value of Statistical Life (VSL) 1'045'000Morbidity (typical injury) 70'000Evacuation (fixed costs per household) 144

Degree of internalisation OECD Non-OECDOccupational fatalities/damages 80 % 50 %Public fatalities/damages 50 % 20 %

Average number of people per household 2.5 4.4

EfficiencyCoal 40 %Oil 31 %Natural gas 53 %



0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

OECDnon-OECD w/o China

China

OECDnon-OECD

OECDnon-OECD

OECDnon-OECD

OECD

non-OECD

Coa

lO

ilN

atur

alG

asLP

GH

ydro

Public Occupational

Occupational vs. public accidentsOccupational vs. public accidents



Damage and external costs of Damage and external costs of severe accidents with fatalitiessevere accidents with fatalities

1 Based on PSA for Swiss NPP Muehleberg 2 Based on Chernobyl accident 3 ng = negligible4 Damage costs for Muehleberg including latent fatalities and non-health effects estimated at 1.2E-3 $-Cents/kWhe

Value of Statistical Life = 1.045 million €; reference coal, oil & natural gas plants have efficiencies of 41%, 30% & 53%



ConclusionsConclusions

• Comprehensive historical experience of energy-related severe accidents based on PSI's ENSAD.

• Damages associated with severe accidents are rather small compared to natural disasters.

• Statistical basis for OECD countries is much broader than for EU-15, and considered representative also for the latter.

• Energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are distinctly higher than in OECD countries.


Conclusions (Conclusions (contcont..))

• Hydropower in non-OECD countries and upstream stages within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone.

• Expected fatality rates are lowest for western hydropower and nuclear power plants. However, the maximum credible consequences are very large. The associated risk valuation is subject to stakeholder value judgments and can be pursued in multi-criteria decision analysis.

• External costs associated with severe accidents are generally much smaller than monetized damages caused by air pollution(about 1 to 11 €-Cents per kWhe).

accidents in the energy sector: comparison of damage...

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