access to he conference 2015 - the policy perspective
TRANSCRIPT
Access to HEConferenceMonday 2nd July 2015
Policy Perspective
Nick DavyHE Policy Manager
Association of Colleges
Gateway Access to HE Conference 6 July 2015Nick Davy, AoC HE Policy Manager
But what kind?
“It’s the economy, stupid”
“Education, education, education”
Hour Glass Economy
Managers, directors and senior officials +586k
Professional occupations +1175k
Associate professional and technical +583k
Administrative and secretarial -486k
Skilled trades occupations -306k
Caring, leisure and other service + 649k
Sales and customer service -64k
Process, plant and machine operatives -214k
Elementary occupations -67k
Low skills equilibrium
Some towns, cities and areas – experience a ‘low skills
equilibrium’
Concentration of low paid jobs
Low level skills amongst population
Problems with attracting inward investment
Low educational aspirations and poor results in local schools
Reinforcing spiral of decline or status quo
The Supply and Demand Nexus
After Spain, the UK has the lowest demand from employers for
workers’ education beyond compulsory education (OECD)
Productivity – 17% below what it would have been if pre-recession
trends continued
Skills shortages persist. 34 occupations in the official Shortage
Occupation List that allows UK organisations to sponsor migrant
workers.
Does the dominance of academic HE in our tertiary system impact on
skills development and productivity? (Cedefop)
FE and HE Education Policy
Apprenticeships, apprenticeships, apprenticeships.
Full time residential academic higher education
Apprenticeships 2009 – 2014: apprenticeship starts for under 19 flat-lined;
65%+ in that period are at level 2
Most apprenticeships now one year +
600,000 apprenticeships needed every year for 5 years
Over 40% of trailblazer standards at Level 4 +
Issues
Length/quality
Age Group
Progression
Local jobs
Trailblazer to Qualification
IAG Problems?
When asked 'Which paths do you predominantly educate your students on?' and provided with a list of possible options, almost all (92%) stated that they promote university options over all others, whilst only 57% admitted to informing young people about the apprenticeship and vocational training available to them. (Notgoingtouni 2015)
HE Student Enrolments
Enrolment Trends by Institution
Some RG – Exeter, Brum, Bristol – expanded
Those who have expanded continuing to expand; those contracted continuing to contract – across all tariff groups
Evidence of lowering grade offers
Improved transition/academic support offer
UCAS Acceptances; 54% of providers decreased in size -11-14
HE Budget Increased by 26% (2011-2015)
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Overall College HE numbers have remained stable but there has
been an increase in directly controlled full-time numbers
2008-9 2012-3
Full Time Direct 31,000 44,000
Indirect 28,000 24,000
Full Time Sub-total 59,000 68,000
Part Time Direct 24,000 20,000
Indirect 33,000 18,000
Part Time Sub-total 56,000 38,000
117,000 106,000
% Direct 47% 60%
College HE: Changing shape and Enrolment stability
• Prescribed HE (08/09 – 12/13): Increase in full time courses and part-time HNC courses;
Trend from part time to full time courses, such as education and business studies;
50% decline in part time ITT and Creative Arts;
Majority in 08/09 – 25+; in 12/13 – under 21
Small increase in part time engineering and construction.
• NPHE: 11% decline over 5 years, 95% - part time;
All regions experienced a decrease except London and South West;
61% of NPHE at level four; 86% of students over 25;
Lifting the Cap? Australia (2013)
Significant increase in enrolments
More enrolled from middle-ranking eligibility grades
Some improvement in enrolments from lower socio-economic groups
Lower/Middle–ranking HEIs grew fastest – often on teaching/nursing courses; Group of 8 less interested
Perceptions of ‘dilution of standards’ – not proven
Students less prepared for HE study? – evidence of improvements in HEI transition and support services.
TAFE colleges – protection; some expansion from a low base
Pipeline – Growth in Vocational Qualifications
BTEC qualifications, increased from 13.5 per cent in 2008 to 23.8 per cent in 2014
Types of qualifications (Cedefop)
Study of different types of qualifications – VET, apprenticeships and academic HE – latter problematic. Why?
Countries with well established VET and /or apprenticeships systems are better at upskilling employees leading more quickly to higher growth;
Employers taking on free academic graduates is actually quite inefficient as you are effectively spending twice – on the academic degree and then further for on-the-job training/CVET.
Evidence that the presence of well-skilled intermediate and advanced employee’s raise (a) the productivity of low skilled employees and (b) allows senior staff to do less ‘fire fighting’ –leading to better productivity.
Where do we go from here? Tough Spot
Adult skills budget cuts/encouraging HE expansion/entry
Fees Loans for adult FE – impact on adult supply?
Privates expanding (70% in London/SE); loans: £30m (‘10) to £600M (‘13)
At present pressure on middle-tariff; but could change?
Lifting of cap – support for FT academic degrees
Overall most colleges experiencing limited expansion – or small decline - apart from those new to market or niche
Limited policy prescriptions for PTHE
NPHE – ‘bottomed out’?
Where do we go from here? Macro
Have too many colleges become ‘big schools’ – L1/2 provision?
Have we lost our reputation for technical and professional education? (levels 3/4/5?)
Are there too many small colleges?
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How can England create a technical education strand in public colleges?
Greater autonomy
National Accreditation Council
Awarding Powers
Improved LMI/Stronger employer links
Decrease intermediaries such as LEPs; regulate providers/buyers
Where do we go from here? Micro
Larger colleges – FDAP
Smaller provision – work with HEI on clear mission – access; employer engagement; internal progression
Best colleges – 60% on HE courses – internal progression
Add value to employers – not just training/education
Niche local provision/employer-led
Guarantees/compacts for students who achieve set targets
Transition programmes
Working with communities
Year Zero/Accelerated provision
Customised – international
Access to HEConferenceMonday 2nd July 2015
