Accelerating the transition to a low carbon emission society: reflections on the Canadian context

James MeadowcroftCanada Research Chair in Governance for Sustainable Development

Carleton University

Climate Change and Renewable Energy Policy in the European Union and Canada Ottawa, October 1-2, 2015

Accelerating the transition to a low carbon emission society

Outline:

Appreciating the Canadian context

The longer term vision

Moving forward today

The context for the low carbon transition and new renewable deployment in Canada

GHG intensive economic development trajectory major fossil fuel producer and exporter, high GHG intensity of GDP and per capita emissions

Regionally distinct energy political economies: resources, development model jurisdiction

Weak climate change policies ‘sad history’ Recent encouraging trends: Ontario coal phase out; BC carbon tax;

Ontario cap and trade; reform to Alberta Specified Gas Emitters system

Canada’s GHG Emissions and emissions reduction targets

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20132015

20172019

20212023

20252027

2029500

550

600

650

700

750

800

actual emissions target from 1992 FCCCkyoto target Copenhagen targetIntended nationally determined contribution

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (M

t C

O2e

q)

The context for the low carbon transition and new renewables in Canada

Economic integration with the United States.

An 80% decarbonized electricity system, with large regional variations.

Delayed interest in new renewables, with some recent experience in Ontario and elsewhere.

Massive renewable resource potential

Internationally developments: rapidly falling prices for key new renewable technologies and increasing international deployment.

The longer term vision

Long term decarbonization objectives: 80%+ reduction by 2050, with a carbon emission free energy system

Electrification central to all pathways to deep decarbonization. Implies perhaps doubling of electricity supply by 2050. Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project

So new renewables will be critical to meet long term decarbonization objectives. But not just new renewables.

Interim goal: drive unmitigated fossil energy out of power generation (first coal, then gas) by 2035. (Could be some place for CCS)

Decarbonize transport and the built environment

Moving forward today

Strengthen climate policy framework

Frame as a transition or transformation

Promote regional decarbonization pathways

Develop green economic policy